qwerty Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 12:20 PM) So...you're saying that you think Jon will nearly double what he earned last year ($3.4 million) if they go to arbitration? I have trouble believing that. Low side he will sign a 6 million dollar one year contract. What i expect is 6.5ish. High side 7 million dollar one year contract. If kenny knows how arbitration works ( for some reason i think he may) he won't be foolish enough to offer anything below six million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(3E8 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 03:16 PM) You don't know this. OK, it very well "could" defintely hurt us down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitewashed in '05 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(Jordan4life_2005 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 03:12 PM) If we're not able to lock Jon up, trading Gio and Haigwood is defintely gonna hurt us down the road. How far is Broadway away from the show? About 2 years? Hopefully some sleepers step it up this year so we can have some major league ready propects in the case Jon does leave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatScott82 Posted December 1, 2005 Author Share Posted December 1, 2005 If Garland leaves after '06 I would love to replace him with Mulder! Another lefty ace to go along w/ Buerhle. Mulder grew up a Sox fan. I have a feeling KW is going to give Jose C an extension this year so a rotation of Buerhle, Mulder, Garcia, Conteras and BMac in 2007 would look pretty good to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitewashed in '05 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(GreatScott82 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 03:56 PM) If Garland leaves after '06 I would love to replace him with Mulder! Another lefty ace to go along w/ Buerhle. Mulder grew up a Sox fan. I have a feeling KW is going to give Jose C an extension this year so a rotation of Buerhle, Mulder, Garcia, Conteras and BMac in 2007 would look pretty good to me. Mulder has had injury problems with his hip, I think... It depends how he does this season, if he still has problems staying healthy he will probably be overpriced to take a gamble on. Then if he is fine then he will definitley be pricey. I doubt he comes to the sox. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jordan4life_2007 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(GreatScott82 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 03:56 PM) If Garland leaves after '06 I would love to replace him with Mulder! Another lefty ace to go along w/ Buerhle. Mulder grew up a Sox fan. I have a feeling KW is going to give Jose C an extension this year so a rotation of Buerhle, Mulder, Garcia, Conteras and BMac in 2007 would look pretty good to me. Pass. Mulder has fallen off big time the last 2-3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldSox2 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(Jordan4life_2005 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 03:21 PM) OK, it very well "could" defintely hurt us down the road. Agreed. I was going to say the same thing as your original post until I saw yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AngelasDaddy0427 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 Am I the only one who realizes that even 12-win Jon is worth about 7 mil a year in this Market... Next year if Garland has another CY Young type season don't be shocked if he makes that BJ Ryan deal look like chump change... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoomSlowik Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 (edited) QUOTE(Jeckle2000 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 05:07 PM) Am I the only one who realizes that even 12-win Jon is worth about 7 mil a year in this Market... Next year if Garland has another CY Young type season don't be shocked if he makes that BJ Ryan deal look like chump change... I doubt the last part severely, especially the "another" CY Young type season since he wasn't even in the running at the end of the year. Pitchers are getting ridiculous deals, but not that ridiculous. Plus most of the guys getting the monster deals are more of the power pitching variety, something that Jon doesn't fit. Russ Ortiz is probably the best comparison style-wise. In the 4 years before he was a FA, he won 17, 14, 21, and 15 games, and only one of those years was his ERA over 4. Ortiz got just over $8 mil a year for 4 years. Carl Pavano had a Cy Young like season right before he hit the market, winning 20 games with an ERA of 3. He got just barely under $10 mil per over 4 years. His injury history probably dropped that a little, but pursuit of him wasn't exactly low. Odalis Perez is another guy who probably has a better resume than Jon, and he got $24 mil for 3 years. Jon's salary isn't going to be ridiculous even if he performs well this year, especially with bigger name options like Schmidt, Pettitte, Mulder, and Zito out there. If Jon has another season with an ERA of around 4.40 and 12 wins, I doubt he even gets $7 mil a year. He just hasn't shown a whole lot despite the fact that he's been in the majors for a while. Edited December 1, 2005 by ZoomSlowik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AddisonStSox Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(Steff @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 12:08 PM) Nice Jon.. way to ruin a good week. Hopefully they work something out.. I do think Jon would get about $7 million in arbitration. So much for that in-house We are in a pretty damn good spot if Kenny's biggest problems remaining this off-season are locking up Jon Garland and AJ Pierzynski. I Kenny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 Things I've learned in this thread: Jeckle has the best handle on Garland's value given the current financial market. Most people have no clue how much a 26 yo pitcher with Jon's resume is worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 02:39 PM) Things I've learned in this thread: Jeckle has the best handle on Garland's value given the current financial market. Most people have no clue how much a 26 yo pitcher with Jon's resume is worth. Which is why we need to lock him up for 3 years with something like a Garcia contract, IMO. 1 more thing to consider...Garland and Buehrle are very good friends. It may not be the final item on their list, but just like getting Thome helped convince PK to return, holding onto 1 of those pitchers will probably help us hold onto the other one, all things being equal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DukeNukeEm Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 if he goes back to 12 win Garland, he's going to feel like a dumbass for rejecting that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(DukeNukeEm @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 02:55 PM) if he goes back to 12 win Garland, he's going to feel like a dumbass for rejecting that. Do we have any clue what he actually rejected? Loaiza just got a 7 million a year deal, and he only won 12 games last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoodAsGould Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(Gene Honda Civic @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 10:39 PM) Things I've learned in this thread: Jeckle has the best handle on Garland's value given the current financial market. Most people have no clue how much a 26 yo pitcher with Jon's resume is worth. Maybe if he was a f/a this off-season yes... but look at all the other f/a pitchers available next season.... there are a lot on that list who are higher and going to be more fought over than Garland. If he pulls out another season like this ill be worried but right now im just focusing on this season. As for Pieryznski... im not 2 worried about him either. Even if he leaves I think his influence on our pitching staff has made its mark and he prob is a little overated by us too. Im not saying I dont like him but by sox fans he is a little overated on this website. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Honda Civic Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(SoxFan101 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 05:06 PM) Maybe if he was a f/a this off-season yes... but look at all the other f/a pitchers available next season.... there are a lot on that list who are higher and going to be more fought over than Garland. If he pulls out another season like this ill be worried but right now im just focusing on this season. WHO? Garland, Zito, and Mulder (assuming they all pitch effectively and remain healthy this season) are the only pitchers young enough and healthy enough for a team to offer more than 4 years to. There will be ZERO other comparable pitchers entering their age 27 season on the market. Pitchers peak at age 27-29, when most of them are still under their draft teams control via the reserve clause. -- There will be a huge market for a proven commodity who has a reasonable chance of improving. AGE may be the single biggest factor working in Garland's favor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoFiStew Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 This doesn't really bother me that much. 2005 was Garland's first really good year, even then he still only struck out 115 in 221 innings. He improved his walk rate drastically though and also lowered his HR rate, both of which were big keys to his success. I checked Garland's similarity scores at BaseballReference.com and here are the 10 most similar pitchers through age 25: 1. Brad Radke 2. Jim Bagby 3. Alex Fernandez 4. Gary Bell 5. Jerry Reuss 6. Chuck Stoobs 7. Javier Vasquez 8. Larry Christenson 9. Art Houtteman 10. Billy Hoeft Quite the mixed bag -- a few good pitchers and several "who dats" (Chuck Stoobs? Art Houtteman? Billy Hoeft?). My point is that Garland is not exactly on a career path to greatness. If he can keep improving his K/BB ratio like he did last season, he will be worth keeping. But baseball history is littered with pitchers like Garland who had a good season or two, but couldn't sustain it because of their low strikeout rates. The most similar pitcher to Garland regardless of age is Carl Pavano, who parlayed one good season in 2004 into a huge contract (4 yrs/$40 million) with the Yankees and promptly laid an equally huge egg in 2005, going 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA. So I'm fine with waiting to see if Garland can do it again in 2006. I hope he can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoodAsGould Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 11:13 PM) I disagre. Garland for the last 3 years was supposed to have breakout seasons. AJ came to town, and it happened. I think the bullpen speaks for itself. Who would you want behind the plate when Bobby came up for the first time. Did you want Ben Davis coaching him along? There is a difference... Ben Davis sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Chappas Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 How many starts has he missed in his career? How old is he? How did he fair in the playoffs? How old is he? He is young and has improved every year. Christ not everyone can come out and be Kerry Wood from day one. By the end of this season he will be the ace of this staff at 27. This topic has been beaten to death here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 QUOTE(Jenks Heat @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 03:29 PM) By the end of this season he will be the ace of this staff at 27. This topic has been beaten to death here. That's one Hell of a staff to be the "Ace" of. I count 4 potential ones next year...maybe 5 if Freddy has an amazing year. He is young and has improved every year. Christ not everyone can come out and be Kerry Wood from day one.Thank God for that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoodAsGould Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 wasnt his 2004 era higher than his 2003? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLAK Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 Didn't we just go through this exact same scenario with Mark B? It ended up OK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drowninginflame Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 garland is a douche in person Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sayitaintso Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 QUOTE(drowninginflame @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 06:43 PM) garland is a douche in person Have you met him? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoxFan1 Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 QUOTE(drowninginflame @ Dec 1, 2005 -> 08:43 PM) garland is a douche in person Would you care to elaborate??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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