Hideaway Lights Posted September 22, 2007 Share Posted September 22, 2007 baseball prospectus predictions holla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Someone should bump that thread so we can all laugh at ourselves. I'm sure I had some gems in there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Someone should bump that thread so we can all laugh at ourselves. I'm sure I had some gems in there. Part of BP's article included how awesome our bullpen would be with our flame throwers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flash Tizzle Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 (edited) QUOTE(Buehrle>Wood @ Sep 22, 2007 -> 07:29 PM) Someone should bump that thread so we can all laugh at ourselves. I'm sure I had some gems in there. Here is one thread devoted to the subject:  Baseball Prospectus  Here's another interesting preseaon thread I came upon. Its contents oppose Hawk's belief that no one could have seen our troubles prior to April:  Why Crucify The Whole Team Already?  I love this quote of mine, first posted on February 26th:  (After providing BP's projected standings)  Looks like we're expected to post the fourth worst record in the majors next season. OMG, we'll finally get a Top 10 pick in the amateur draft according to BP!!!!11 Although we all know once the Sox get a Top 5 pick, whenever that day arrives, the draft will be universally panned as one of the worst in recent memory.  And while the draft hasn't been panned as 'one of the worst in recent memory,' recent comments from Baseball America concerning a potentially weak class is of no shock to me. Edited September 23, 2007 by Flash Tizzle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max power Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 I dunno, this team stays even a little bit healthier, and BP is pretty far off. I'm not going to take my hat off to them, as it was mostly luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maggliopipe Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(max power @ Sep 22, 2007 -> 09:55 PM) I dunno, this team stays even a little bit healthier, and BP is pretty far off. I'm not going to take my hat off to them, as it was mostly luck. Â But injuries are factored into their prediction. IIRC, health and age were the two main reasons they predicted 72 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Well, gee, we've completely blown our "good draft pick" in a week. Funny how they start reeling off wins the last 10 days of the season. You would think some of these butt nuggets were playing for their job or something. Â Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 (edited) Something about a blind squirrel... Edited September 23, 2007 by Rowand44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max power Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(maggliopipe @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 10:18 AM) But injuries are factored into their prediction. IIRC, health and age were the two main reasons they predicted 72 wins. If thats the case, they did a good job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Bp also picked us for 4th place in 2005. Take it for what it is worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:03 PM) Bp also picked us for 4th place in 2005. Take it for what it is worth. I get the book every year, and in their team write ups they make a prediction on the upcoming season. 2005 I think the quote was "the window has closed". They really liked their chances last season, and this year said they weren't going to win anything. A lot of their staff is in Chicago, so I think the White Sox and Cubs get scrutinized a little more by them, but all in all for the other teams, they have a pretty good track record. BTW, they didn't think the Cubs would be .500 this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:09 PM) I get the book every year, and in their team write ups they make a prediction on the upcoming season. 2005 I think the quote was "the window has closed". They really liked their chances last season, and this year said they weren't going to win anything. A lot of their staff is in Chicago, so I think the White Sox and Cubs get scrutinized a little more by them, but all in all for the other teams, they have a pretty good track record. BTW, they didn't think the Cubs would be .500 this season. Â The sad thing is that the Cubs barely are .500, and probably wouldn't be if they didn't play in the house of horrors that is the NL Central. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hideaway Lights Posted September 23, 2007 Author Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:11 PM) The sad thing is that the Cubs barely are .500, and probably wouldn't be if they didn't play in the house of horrors that is the NL Central. Â Cubs are 10 games over, how is that "barely .500" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:11 PM) The sad thing is that the Cubs barely are .500, and probably wouldn't be if they didn't play in the house of horrors that is the NL Central. The NL is pretty pathetic. The White Sox 4-14 mark against the NL this year, is inexcusable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(Hideaway Lights @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:20 PM) Cubs are 10 games over, how is that "barely .500"They were just like 3 or 4 games over and got hot against Pittsurgh and Cincy. I guess I just don't follw them as closely as you do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregory Pratt Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:09 PM) I get the book every year, and in their team write ups they make a prediction on the upcoming season. 2005 I think the quote was "the window has closed". They really liked their chances last season, and this year said they weren't going to win anything. A lot of their staff is in Chicago, so I think the White Sox and Cubs get scrutinized a little more by them, but all in all for the other teams, they have a pretty good track record. BTW, they didn't think the Cubs would be .500 this season. Â I don't get where people's contempt for BP/BA stems from. Do people expect a 100% CORRECT rate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hideaway Lights Posted September 23, 2007 Author Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 04:26 PM) They were just like 3 or 4 games over and got hot against Pittsurgh and Cincy. I guess I just don't follw them as closely as you do. Â Nah, I just glanced at today's standings because I didn't think you were correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
santo=dorf Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 I don't get where people's contempt for BP/BA stems from. Do people expect a 100% CORRECT rate? It's their arrogance and unwillingness to accept the results. They come up with a model and make excuses when it doesn't work out. You should read the whiny article they put out after the Sox technically clinched in Detroit yet their system mathematically said the White Sox still only had a 90ish% chance of winning the division. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buehrle>Wood Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 10:09 PM) BTW, they didn't think the Cubs would be .500 this season. Chicago 85-77 Milwaukee 84-78 Â Â They're pretty right on with there predictions. Â Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vance Law Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 (edited) Looking at it, it seems to me that they'll be very close or right on for a few teams, be totally wrong on a few teams, and be kinda sorta in the ballpark for the majority of teams. Just like when anyone else makes these guesstimates, or, like, if an orang-u-tan did it. Â Does anyone have any data that says that over time, or for this year in particular, BP is any closer with the guesstimates than anyone else (like any ESPN folk) who put out theirs? Edited September 24, 2007 by Vance Law Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 QUOTE(Buehrle>Wood @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 06:41 PM) Chicago 85-77 Milwaukee 84-78 They're pretty right on with there predictions. In their book they said the Cubs were nothing but a .480 team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 How many do they have to get right before it has any validity? 40%? 80% 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 QUOTE(Texsox @ Sep 24, 2007 -> 08:57 AM) How many do they have to get right before it has any validity? 40%? 80% 100% I think they are pretty good. I always look forward to the book coming out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowand44 Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Sep 23, 2007 -> 06:40 PM) It's their arrogance and unwillingness to accept the results. They come up with a model and make excuses when it doesn't work out. You should read the whiny article they put out after the Sox technically clinched in Detroit yet their system mathematically said the White Sox still only had a 90ish% chance of winning the division. I never had much respect for BP but that was the last straw for me. It was so ridiculous to read something like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soxfest Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 Under .500 sucks bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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