I'd say no, but you never know.

If our veterans play to their potential and our young guys progress, I really don't see why we should be contenders. A lot is riding on Danks, Count and Floyd but we have no reason to believe even one of them will be worse than last season. I'm A LOT happier with the line-up and bullpen coming into '08 than I was at this point last year. As always, the huge X-factor is health. We have depth in a few areas (OF and INF) but if a pitcher goes down, I think we're in trouble.

I really love the Sox, but we are not as good as California, New York, Boston, Cleveland, and Detroit for starters

and Seattle and Minnesota are good too. That makes 6 teams as good or better. I cant in any state of mind call us contenders as things stand now.

Nope. The only way we would be is if the vets go back to producing at a high level and the young pitching lives up to its potential. If the Count doesnt post a 5 ERA and FLoyd and Dankes can stay in the mid to low 4's we can.

Our offense will be great, better than we expect....I think both Quentin and Richar will be big contributors this year.

 

Our BP problems are essentially solved.

 

Our rotation will cost us the playoffs. And worse yet, we have nothing to trade to acquire a mid-season starter.

 

 

Honestly, I'm on the fence here which is a complete turn around to what I was a few months ago. I really like our lineup and I LOVE our pen. Once again the back end of our rotation scares the crap out of me but if those 3 can produce at a decent level then I think we might have a shot. So realistically, I got to say no but I think there is at least an outside shot.

A return to the "past perfromance mean" for Ordonez, and Polanco; and maybe-maybe Granderson

 

Another year older for Pudge, IROD is 36 yo opening day, .296 OBP in 07, 11 bombs in 07; lowest total since strike shortened 95. Another year older for Sheffield, Carlos Guillen. They can have off years similar to the yeras had by Dye, Konerko in 07.

Well if Mags stops taking the juice/HGH, you can bet his production will plummet, just like I-Rod's did.

 

And I think Dontrelle is going to get shelled in the AL. I really hope I'm right. If I recall, he's prone to walking a lot of people, and you don't get away with that in the American League.

Not as of 2-3-08

We need another starter. Hopefully we'll get one for Crede. We won't go anywhere in a very tough AL Central if Danks/Contreras/Floyd make up 60% of our rotation.

We need another starter. Hopefully we'll get one for Crede. We won't go anywhere in a very tough AL Central if Danks/Contreras/Floyd make up 60% of our rotation.

On a bright note if the offense wasn't horrible for the first 3 months of the season last year i think Danks could have at least won 4-5 more games during the first half.. he was pretty darn good. And he still is very young and he has a great chance of developing into a respectable 3 or 4 pitcher in a rotation one day.

 

Floyd kind of reminds me of Garland in his early years with the Sox... has a good arm but im not so sure were in a possition to have the patience with him as we did with Garland to develop into a good starting pitcher. He ended the year strong but if there is one guy that scares me the most in our rotation its definitley Floyd.... He just got shelled too often last year..

 

Contreras is the 'key' to the rotation according to KW and Ozzie. I some what agree but he has proven to be dominate in this league and there were signs of him coming back to form back in September last year... I think if he can just post quality starts most of the season he will be fine.. especially as a #4 starter like he was back in '05 when it was Buerhle, Garcia, Garland, Contreras, El-duque.

 

The best case scenario: Crede shines in spring training... So does Danks or Floyd and we package them both in a deal to San Fran for Cain.. it will most likely cost Danks because of his young age and upside.. If the Giants are desperate for a 3B like many out there say im sure they would consider pulling the trigger. That would leave us a stong 1-2-3 with Buerhle, Vaz, and Cain and it would put even less pressure on Floyd and Contreras on the bottom half.

Well if Mags stops taking the juice/HGH, you can bet his production will plummet, just like I-Rod's did.

 

And I think Dontrelle is going to get shelled in the AL. I really hope I'm right. If I recall, he's prone to walking a lot of people, and you don't get away with that in the American League.

Also, I am not sold on a 43 yr old Rogers, a 5+ ERA Bonderman, a "can't post a winning record on a good team" Robertson, or a declining NL transfer Willis. The only sure thing in their rotation is Verlander. The Indians are not that much better.

 

You subtract Santana from the Twins and it looks like a 3 team race.

Also, I am not sold on a 43 yr old Rogers, a 5+ ERA Bonderman, a "can't post a winning record on a good team" Robertson, or a declining NL transfer Willis. The only sure thing in their rotation is Verlander. The Indians are not that much better.

 

You subtract Santana from the Twins and it looks like a 3 team race.

Cleveland is the team to beat imo.

I think they are contenders, but I have been on some coolaid as of late.

Yeah but if I understand that analysis right it means we would get that many runs if we batted Swisher and Thome 1 and 2.

 

Which is pretty unrealistic.

You aren't reading it correctly. If the Sox went with the #1 optimized lineup (Swisher - Thome - Quentin - Fields - Konerko - Dye - Richar - Pierz - Cabrera) they'd score 5.649 runs per game.

 

The 5.527 (5.3) runs per game number is for the lineup the poster put in (Cabrera - Swisher - Thome - Konerko - Dye - Pierz - Fields - Quentin - Richar) which is a very realistic lineup.

Any chance that Fields can learn 2B?

 

Ryne Sandberg did.

No way we finish above 3rd with Floyd/Danks in our rotation.

Its all on the 3-4-5 in the rotation. If, either via trade/acquisition or because the youngsters perform well, at least 2 of those 3 have good seasons... then this team has a very good shot at the playoffs. If that cannot be achieved, then no, they aren't going to the post-season. That mid- to back of the rotation is the key, IMO.

 

The phrase was from Warren Harding.

 

You're right. I couldn't remember which it was, and for some reason I was thinking Wilson died in office and Harding took over, but I was wrong. Harding died in office, though.

 

Now back to your originally scheduled programming.

No way we finish above 3rd with Floyd/Danks in our rotation.

 

What are you talking about? Danks is gonna win 18 and Floyd is gonna win 17.

Yeah but if I understand that analysis right it means we would get that many runs if we batted Swisher and Thome 1 and 2.

 

Which is pretty unrealistic.

 

The number I quoted of 5.53 runs/game was with our expected batting order as I see it:

Orlando

Swish

Thome

Konk

Dye

AJ

Fields

Quentin

Richar

 

With Swisher and Thome batting 1, 2 it projected an even higher 5.65 runs/game.

I like our chances. I think Buehrle and Vazquez are both a great #1 and #2 duo. I think Contreras will rebound, won't be as dominant as 05 and half of 06, but will have respectable numbers. I would take Floyd and Danks over Willis/Robertson and Byrd/Lee. Neither CLE or DET have givens for #4 and #5 starters.

 

I like our bullpen over CLE and DET, especially closers. If Dotel can stay healthy, Linebrink stays consistent, and 1 of Thornton and MacDougal rebound then our bullpen could be lights out.

 

I'm so pumped to see Swisher play for us. I'm anxious to see what Richar or Ramirez, Fields and Quentin can do in a full season.

 

I don't expect any more moves until Spring Training. KW and Ozzie will have a better grasp on Contreras/Danks/Floyd/Crede/2B and will make the appropriate move to make the team better.

 

I'd like to see Quentin leadoff, but that depends on his spring. I don't care about speed, I want someone that can get on base.

 

We have alot of questions, but you always do in the preseason. We have 2 starters that have alot of upside (Floyd&Danks) and our veterans have alot to prove after a horrible 2007.

 

CAN'T WAIT!

Cleveland is the team to beat imo.

I agree. They get very little press, and yet they won 96 games last year. Even they have holes though. Borowski.

thanks to the mods for fixing my wack subject line.

Also, I am not sold on a 43 yr old Rogers, a 5+ ERA Bonderman, a "can't post a winning record on a good team" Robertson, or a declining NL transfer Willis. The only sure thing in their rotation is Verlander. The Indians are not that much better.

 

You subtract Santana from the Twins and it looks like a 3 team race.

I didn't realize how bad the Tigers' pitching staff performed last year. Bonderman 5.01 ERA, Willis (w/ the Marlins) 5.17, Rogers (who missed more than half the year with I think it was a blood clot in his arm) 4.43, and Robertson 4.76. Like you said, the only guy who had a good year was Verlander. And their bullpen is pretty $hitty. They will put up a ton of runs, but I'm not so sure they're the team to beat in the Central. Maybe Cleveland, but their rotation isn't all that great either, plus they have a very questionable closer just like the Tiggers.

 

I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin...

Why is Cleveland "the team to beat"? Because they had a great year in '07?

 

They had ALOT of things go right for them this year.

 

For example: How many of their players had career best years... or played waaaay above their career averages? Pretty much everyone offensively except Hafner... and their entire bullpen... and two of their starters.

 

I think they're in for a BIG letdown if they're expecting repeat career best performances from almost everyone on the team.