Owens' Confidence in Himself

[DBAHO]

Saw this in the Sun - Times;

 

''I'd be lying if I said that a quick return not happening didn't cross my mind lately,'' Owens said Tuesday in a phone interview from Charlotte, N.C. ''But all I can control is getting myself right, getting myself healthy.

 

''What I do know is that when I look at their lineup, they don't have a guy that can steal 50 [bases]. I can do that.''

 

I think Jerry needs to get his priorities in order a little in terms of what offensive stat is going to offer the most value to the Sox in the leadoff spot. It's not stolen bases, it's OBP.

[southsideirish71]

Saw this in the Sun - Times;

 

 

 

I think Jerry needs to get his priorities in order a little in terms of what offensive stat is going to offer the most value to the Sox in the leadoff spot. It's not stolen bases, it's OBP.

 

Corey Patterson stole 45 bases with a .314 OBP in 06. Another reason that stolen bases are not a good stat for a leadoff guy. I would rather have the OBP machine known as Swisher get on.

 

 

 

[max power]

Anderson isn't going to get much of a chance on this team being a righty with quentin, dye and the switch hitting swisher ahead of him. So what is more important, a lefty bat in the outfield who can steal or a guy who is pretty much only used as defense sub? I am not sure. I can tell you who I'd rather have out there if someone got injured, that is definitely anderson.

[jasonxctf]

9th inning, Sox down by one with 1 one out. Thome/Konerko/Dye/AJ/Crede/Hall/Uribe whomever singles or gets walked. Time for a pinch runner... I want Owens on this team as a 4th OF.

[scenario]

I hope Owens has an outstanding year.... in Charlotte.

 

It amazes me that despite the mountains of evidence piled up in the last 20 year that steals do not correlate to wins... and that OBP does... that some people still feel the need for a 'steals guy' at the top of the order.

 

Swisher is the perfect prototype of the modern leadoff guy. And the Sox would be stupid if they move him from that role.

Edited April 16, 2008 by scenario

[jackie hayes]

9th inning, Sox down by one with 1 one out. Thome/Konerko/Dye/AJ/Crede/Hall/Uribe whomever singles or gets walked. Time for a pinch runner... I want Owens on this team as a 4th OF.

A marginal improvement over Ozuna/Ramirez in the pinch running department isn't worth the loss of a player who's better in every other aspect of the game.

[NorthSideSox72]

A marginal improvement over Ozuna/Ramirez in the pinch running department isn't worth the loss of a player who's better in every other aspect of the game.

True.

 

However, having a lefty bat who can play LF and CF occasionally off the bench, AND pinch hit and pinch run, does have some value.

 

I'm sort of torn on the Anderson/Owens question.

 

[lostfan]

Why's the thread title what it is? I don't think Owens's priorities have ever been out of order or otherwise in question. Say what you want about his ceiling as a player but how is him having confidence in himself a bad thing, especially if he's trying to get better?

[jackie hayes]

True.

 

However, having a lefty bat who can play LF and CF occasionally off the bench, AND pinch hit and pinch run, does have some value.

 

I'm sort of torn on the Anderson/Owens question.

How "occasionally"? I'd be pissed if Owens comes up and gets 2 or 3 starts per week, cutting into the pt of a much better player in Swisher or Quentin. (And if he actually got enough time to rack up 50 steals...) But if he barely ever plays, his value is just that of a pinch runner. Either way, I don't see any point in bringing him up.

[WCSox]

It amazes me that despite the mountains of evidence piled up in the last 20 year that steals do not correlate to wins... and that OBP does... that some people still feel the need for a 'steals guy' at the top of the order.

 

That's true in general, but the combination of decent OBP and steals can be very effective. Pods was certainly a difference-maker during the first half of '05 with a modest (for a leadoff hitter) OBP of .350.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

How "occasionally"? I'd be pissed if Owens comes up and gets 2 or 3 starts per week, cutting into the pt of a much better player in Swisher or Quentin. (And if he actually got enough time to rack up 50 steals...) But if he barely ever plays, his value is just that of a pinch runner. Either way, I don't see any point in bringing him up.

I wouldn't be pissed if either Owens OR Anderson got 2 or 3 starts a week. That means relieving Quentin in LF once and Swisher in CF once each week, with Quentin or Swisher sometimes playing RF or 1B/DH (respectively) on those days anyway. In fact, I think its a good idea to do just that. The question is, should it be Anderson or Owens who does that?

 

[StrangeSox]

9th inning, Sox down by one with 1 one out. Thome/Konerko/Dye/AJ/Crede/Hall/Uribe whomever singles or gets walked. Time for a pinch runner... I want Owens on this team as a 4th OF.

 

9th inning, Sox up by one run. I'd want BA subbed in for his defense.

 

Tough call either way on who provides more value off the bench.

Edited April 16, 2008 by StrangeSox

[iamshack]

with Soriano's latest injury, it sure would be nice to see the Sox and Cubs hook up on a deal...

[jackie hayes]

I wouldn't be pissed if either Owens OR Anderson got 2 or 3 starts a week. That means relieving Quentin in LF once and Swisher in CF once each week, with Quentin or Swisher sometimes playing RF or 1B/DH (respectively) on those days anyway. In fact, I think its a good idea to do just that. The question is, should it be Anderson or Owens who does that?

Anderson. If you're talking about actually giving a guy some pt, you pick the guy with a higher upside at the plate who's a better fielder. That advantage over 200-300 abs plus the better innings in cf is a much bigger difference-maker than the occasional pinch running opportunity, especially when you have Ozuna and Ramirez anyway.

[NorthSideSox72]

Anderson. If you're talking about actually giving a guy some pt, you pick the guy with a higher upside at the plate who's a better fielder. That advantage over 200-300 abs plus the better innings in cf is a much bigger difference-maker than the occasional pinch running opportunity, especially when you have Ozuna and Ramirez anyway.

You keep going back to the PR role, but that's minimal and not the primary reason why you keep a guy on the roster. Its just a nice bonus. As I said, you should play your 4th OF (whether Anderson or Owens) a couple days a week as a general guideline, so the value equation isn't about PR versus OF - its about OF versus OF. Anderson is the better defender hands down of course. But Owens has a history of higher OBP, plus the speed is a nice added bonus. Anderson is said to have a higher ceiling, but that has yet to manifest itself. So I think its a pretty close draw between the 2 for that slot. At the moment, since the team is doing well as-is and Anderson has been just fine in a minimal role, my tendency is to keep things as they are. But if Anderson struggles, I think its a good idea to replace him with JO.

 

[lostfan]

Anderson's ceiling as a 4 1/2-5 tool player is showing signs of starting to manifest itself. He's kind of a paradox right now. He might be finally ready to live up to the potential but there's no way to know, because there are 3 better OFs ahead of him.

[jackie hayes]

You keep going back to the PR role, but that's minimal and not the primary reason why you keep a guy on the roster. Its just a nice bonus. As I said, you should play your 4th OF (whether Anderson or Owens) a couple days a week as a general guideline, so the value equation isn't about PR versus OF - its about OF versus OF. Anderson is the better defender hands down of course. But Owens has a history of higher OBP, plus the speed is a nice added bonus. Anderson is said to have a higher ceiling, but that has yet to manifest itself. So I think its a pretty close draw between the 2 for that slot. At the moment, since the team is doing well as-is and Anderson has been just fine in a minimal role, my tendency is to keep things as they are. But if Anderson struggles, I think its a good idea to replace him with JO.

The conversation started with pr, and really that's all I'd want Owens for. I agree it's minimal, but that's the reason it's being discussed.

 

Owens has had a better obp in the majors, but it's still not good, and he has zero power. Since we're talking about guys with pretty small MLB track records, I think it's useful to look at what they've done in the minors. Anderson's MiLB obp is .361, Owens's is .362. Anderson obviously has much better power. So I don't think they're really all that close in terms of ceiling.

 

I'm well aware of how bad Anderson was in 2006. But there's no truth to the idea that Owens was at least serviceable last year. Anderson's ops+ in 2006 was 65, Owens's in 2007 was 67. They both royally sucked. Anderson's hasn't approached his ceiling, sure. But neither has Owens. At least, for his sake, I hope he hasn't.

[Harry Chappas]

For a late inning guy I want the guy with the highest baseball IQ whether it is defense (throwing to the right base and getting to balls) running (taking the extra base or not, getting a good jump, etc.) and situational hitting (bunting, making contact, sacrifices, etc).

 

The only thing JO has in any of these sitautions is that he is left handed.

 

Anderson and Ramirez are better defensive players and he does not comapre to Ozuna

 

Ramirez is just as fast and has more baseball experience as does Ozuna withoouthte speed it appears but this may go as well to Anderson was choosen over both of them Monday

 

None of these guys is fooling anyone with their ability at the plate but Ozuna did at one time.

 

I would like to see a Mackowiak type player (LH plays various positions) brought in pinch hit late in a game for Uribe

 

Other than that, there is no need for Jerry Owens as he is a below average defender and hitter which is not what you need late in game.

Edited April 16, 2008 by Jenks Heat

[witesoxfan]

9th inning, Sox down by one with 1 one out. Thome/Konerko/Dye/AJ/Crede/Hall/Uribe whomever singles or gets walked. Time for a pinch runner... I want Owens on this team as a 4th OF.

 

Pinch hit Brian Anderson and watch him end the game

[chitownsportsfan]

The conversation started with pr, and really that's all I'd want Owens for. I agree it's minimal, but that's the reason it's being discussed.

 

Owens has had a better obp in the majors, but it's still not good, and he has zero power. Since we're talking about guys with pretty small MLB track records, I think it's useful to look at what they've done in the minors. Anderson's MiLB obp is .361, Owens's is .362. Anderson obviously has much better power. So I don't think they're really all that close in terms of ceiling.

 

I'm well aware of how bad Anderson was in 2006. But there's no truth to the idea that Owens was at least serviceable last year. Anderson's ops+ in 2006 was 65, Owens's in 2007 was 67. They both royally sucked. Anderson's hasn't approached his ceiling, sure. But neither has Owens. At least, for his sake, I hope he hasn't.

 

 

Good post. I'll just add that somehow for the first half of 2006 BA's defense singlehandedly made him a worthwhile player, even while having an OPS south of .700. And right, there is no question that Anderson is the better player now and has more upside. Owens is a career minor leaguer or 4th outfielder on a bad team sort of player. He's fast, but not very good at baseball.

 

I still think Anderson got s***-canned by the organization unfairly (looking at you Ozzie), you give him another full season and I think he'd be much improved, at least OPS+ around 90 with good defense. That's an adequate CF for the price.

Edited April 16, 2008 by chitownsportsfan

[witesoxfan]

Good post. I'll just add that somehow for the first half of 2005 BA's defense singlehandedly made him a worthwhile player, even while having an OPS south of .700. And right, there is no question that Anderson is the better player now and has more upside. Owens is a career minor leaguer or 4th outfielder on a bad team sort of player. He's fast, but not very good at baseball.

 

I agree completely. I've been preaching it for 5 months or so.

[jasonxctf]

i dont know that much about Ramirez and his speed, but lets be honest... when Richar is ready, Ramirez is back in Charlotte. He really needs to work on his plate discipline and pitch selection. There's plenty of time to get him big-league ready. His skills are strong, but raw.

 

as for ozuna, all we can look at are the numbs. He's 28/42 in stealing, thus a 66.67% success ratio. Owens success ratio is 33/41, thus a 80.48% success ratio.

 

also, as much as we want to knock owens for his offense, the guy did hit .267 last year and .278/.339 post all star break. compare that against Anderson's 2006 post-all star numbers of .257/.301.

 

Anderson is a better defender

Owens is a better base runner

Ozuna is a better hitter

 

so with Richar replacing Ramirez, which 2 of 3 do you want?

 

The best defender/runner

The best defender/hitter

The best runner/hitter