Confirmed: White Sox claim on Alex Rios on waivers

[caulfield12]

I would guess the odds are about 85/15 against offering Dotel arbitration, so we won't get any picks there. Contreras and Thome will definitely not be offered arbitration...and JD's situation is the biggest question mark for 2010.

 

Figgins will undoubtedly be a Type A FA, correct? So that would mean two lost draft picks...depending on the team that signed him, other FA losses for the Angels (Vladdy, Abreu, etc.), the cost alone for the contract is a huge risk, then figuring in the loss of a couple of higher draft picks, it's just not worth it.

 

If it was Chone Figgins at 26-27 years old and coming into the prime of his career (like Rios), you pull the trigger. In this case...no.

[prochisox]

I would guess the odds are about 85/15 against offering Dotel arbitration, so we won't get any picks there. Contreras and Thome will definitely not be offered arbitration...and JD's situation is the biggest question mark for 2010.

 

Figgins will undoubtedly be a Type A FA, correct? So that would mean two lost draft picks...depending on the team that signed him, other FA losses for the Angels (Vladdy, Abreu, etc.), the cost alone for the contract is a huge risk, then figuring in the loss of a couple of higher draft picks, it's just not worth it.

 

If it was Chone Figgins at 26-27 years old and coming into the prime of his career (like Rios), you pull the trigger. In this case...no.

 

Figgins is a borderline Type A as of August 1st. I think we will offer arbitration to Dotel, and if he accepts, we will trade him. Bullpen arms will be valuable in the offseason. Here is the ranking page for u. - http://www.scribd.com/doc/18014543/Rankings-080109

[Balta1701]

Figgins will undoubtedly be a Type A FA, correct? So that would mean two lost draft picks...depending on the team that signed him, other FA losses for the Angels (Vladdy, Abreu, etc.), the cost alone for the contract is a huge risk, then figuring in the loss of a couple of higher draft picks, it's just not worth it.

That's not how it works. The signing team loses 1 draft pick. The team that lost the type A player gets that draft pick, and also gets a sandwich pick in-between the first and 2nd rounds.

[GreatScott82]

I would guess the odds are about 85/15 against offering Dotel arbitration, so we won't get any picks there. Contreras and Thome will definitely not be offered arbitration...and JD's situation is the biggest question mark for 2010.

 

Figgins will undoubtedly be a Type A FA, correct? So that would mean two lost draft picks...depending on the team that signed him, other FA losses for the Angels (Vladdy, Abreu, etc.), the cost alone for the contract is a huge risk, then figuring in the loss of a couple of higher draft picks, it's just not worth it.

 

If it was Chone Figgins at 26-27 years old and coming into the prime of his career (like Rios), you pull the trigger. In this case...no.

All good points. .

 

What about leadoff? Do we dare to bring Pods back? I guess he's a good 1 year stop gap while we are waiting for Jordan Danks or Jared Mitchell.

[ThunderBolt]

All good points. .

 

What about leadoff? Do we dare to bring Pods back? I guess he's a good 1 year stop gap while we are waiting for Jordan Danks or Jared Mitchell.

Assuming the lineup remains mostly the same, our probable 1-2 is Getz-Beckham.

[caulfield12]

That's not how it works. The signing team loses 1 draft pick. The team that lost the type A player gets that draft pick, and also gets a sandwich pick in-between the first and 2nd rounds.

 

 

I guess what I meant to say is we're losing all these players, NOT getting any draft picks for them (Dotel/Contreras/Thome and probably Dye, too) and then we're having to give up or surrender draft picks to sign Figgins. So it feels like we are really "losing" two picks. And we really lucked out with the Cabrera and KW "chicken" confrontation on the Dan Ryan, Dick Allen's personal crusade/issue this past offseason.

 

That's why the Alexei Rios deal makes much more sense than overpaying in years, overall dollars and then the draft pick for an aging Figgins..all contribute to making it prohibitively expensive.

Edited August 10, 2009 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Assuming the lineup remains mostly the same, our probable 1-2 is Getz-Beckham.

 

Getz can leadoff at .340 to .360 OBP.

 

But not lower than 330.

 

Beckham is fine at either 2 or 3...either one.

[SoxAce]

God dammit. I've been gone for the weekend and this happens? Geez. <_ i love rios though. src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_smile.png" alt=":)">

[clyons]

I guess what I meant to say is we're losing all these players, NOT getting any draft picks for them (Dotel/Contreras/Thome and probably Dye, too) and then we're having to give up or surrender draft picks to sign Figgins. So it feels like we are really "losing" two picks. And we really lucked out with the Cabrera and KW "chicken" confrontation on the Dan Ryan, Dick Allen's personal crusade/issue this past offseason.

 

That's why the Alexei Rios deal makes much more sense than overpaying in years, overall dollars and then the draft pick for an aging Figgins..all contribute to making it prohibitively expensive.

 

I said this in another thread, but Moreno will not let himself be outbid when it comes to retaining Figgins. Getting him is a pipedream.

[chw42]

Rios has had some bad luck this year.

 

BABIP since 2006

2006: .346

2007: .324

2008: .335

2009: .291

 

His career LD% is 20.2%. It's at 18.1% this year, it's cost him around 5-6 hits because of that.

 

He'd be hitting around .275 if his LD% was at career norm. Add in some other factors and he's probably hitting .285 instead of .262.

 

Also, moving to the Cell, where the FB/HR rate is 11% will be a 2.5% increase from Rios' career FB/HR rate of 8.6%.

 

That alone should give Rios at least 5 home runs if he were to call the Cell his home.

 

He also doesn't play against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays a combined 57 times anymore. That's three contenders with great pitching staffs.

 

I easily see Rios hitting .300 for us with 25-28 home runs and a stellar glove in center field next year.

Edited August 10, 2009 by chw42

[JorgeFabregas]

Jake Peavy is intrigued by those BABIP numbers.

[chw42]

Jake Peavy is intrigued by those BABIP numbers.

 

He certainly is.

 

He's probably saying, "if those were numbers against me, I'd be pretty much screwed."

[spiderman]

Rios has had some bad luck this year.

 

BABIP since 2006

2006: .346

2007: .324

2008: .335

2009: .291

 

His career LD% is 20.2%. It's at 18.1% this year, it's cost him around 5-6 hits because of that.

 

He'd be hitting around .275 if his LD% was at career norm. Add in some other factors and he's probably hitting .285 instead of .262.

 

Also, moving to the Cell, where the FB/HR rate is 11% will be a 2.5% increase from Rios' career FB/HR rate of 8.6%.

 

That alone should give Rios at least 5 home runs if he were to call the Cell his home.

 

He also doesn't play against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays a combined 57 times anymore. That's three contenders with great pitching staffs.

 

I easily see Rios hitting .300 for us with 25-28 home runs and a stellar glove in center field next year.

 

What is LD% and what is considered a FB/HR ratio?

[Ozzie Ball]

What is LD% and what is considered a FB/HR ratio?

Line drive percentage. The average HR/FB percentage is around 10-11% or the average HR/BIA (FB+LD+IF) is around 6.5%.

[Kenny Hates Prospects]

I think it's safe to say that in the Cell we'd see Rios turn on a lot more fastballs and hit more home runs as a result. He does have power to all fields and if you watch some of his highlights he does hit some real bombs to straight-away CF in Rogers Centre. Going from turf to grass should keep his legs fresher over the course of a season, and playing for an aggressive manager like Ozzie should bring up his SB totals. He'll have protection here pretty much wherever the Sox hit him in the lineup and the change of scenery should help. I bet he could also learn a few things from JD as well.

 

Rios has oodles of natural ability and even if he doesn't become the type of elite, perennial All-Star kind of player he is capable of becoming, I think he'll still become a very good all-around CF for us. He'll make our defense leaps and bounds better plus he'll provide more speed on the basepaths. The speed + power combo is the best type of package for our park and our manager. His contact rate is always high too, and just in general he should be able to get more loft and carry here with the winds, and he should stay hot longer in the summer. I just love this guy and always have, and a bit over a year ago it would have been a pipedream to me to get him. Well, we might get him and I REALLY hope we do. His versatility also complements our toolsy OFers in the minors very well. There's not much to dislike here from my perspective.

 

I hope that if Kenny does have to give up some talent he will. No D2, no Flowers, no Hudson, etc. but I'd be willing to go for a package of talent like Gilmore + Infante + Ely + throw-in if need be. Thinking more and more about it, this really could be an incredible steal. I don't think we'll have to give up that much though, and hopefully we don't have to give up anything, but the last thing I'd do is end negotiations over some longshot prospect with some ability or some UT/RP/5th starter prospect that is essentially replaceable through FA for near the league minimum or just a bit more. I do expect the Jays to ask for at least a few names just so their fans think they got something in return.

Edited August 10, 2009 by Kenny Hates Prospects

[beck72]

I think it's safe to say that in the Cell we'd see Rios turn on a lot more fastballs and hit more home runs as a result. He does have power to all fields and if you watch some of his highlights he does hit some real bombs to straight-away CF in Rogers Centre. Going from turf to grass should keep his legs fresher over the course of a season, and playing for an aggressive manager like Ozzie should bring up his SB totals. He'll have protection here pretty much wherever the Sox hit him in the lineup and the change of scenery should help. I bet he could also learn a few things from JD as well.

 

Rios has oodles of natural ability and even if he doesn't become the type of elite, perennial All-Star kind of player he is capable of becoming, I think he'll still become a very good all-around CF for us. He'll make our defense leaps and bounds better plus he'll provide more speed on the basepaths. The speed + power combo is the best type of package for our park and our manager. His contact rate is always high too, and just in general he should be able to get more loft and carry here with the winds, and he should stay hot longer in the summer. I just love this guy and always have, and a bit over a year ago it would have been a pipedream to me to get him. Well, we might get him and I REALLY hope we do. His versatility also complements our toolsy OFers in the minors very well. There's not much to dislike here from my perspective.

 

I hope that if Kenny does have to give up some talent he will. No D2, no Flowers, no Hudson, etc. but I'd be willing to go for a package of talent like Gilmore + Infante + Ely + throw-in if need be. Thinking more and more about it, this really could be an incredible steal. I don't think we'll have to give up that much though, and hopefully we don't have to give up anything, but the last thing I'd do is end negotiations over some longshot prospect with some ability or some UT/RP/5th starter prospect that is essentially replaceable through FA for near the league minimum or just a bit more. I do expect the Jays to ask for at least a few names just so their fans think they got something in return.

I don't have the love for Rios you do but I agree that it would prob. be a coup to pick him up. Just imagine a year ago someone saying the sox would replace Vazquez and Swisher with Peavy and now possibly Rios. That stuff is usually only done on Xbox.

 

Kenny Williams should get a deal done. No one is talking top of the line prospects. It's just a matter of Tor. pulling the trigger on a common sense move. Ken Rosenthal put it best by showing what the Blue Jays could do with Rios salary, filling the roster with multiple players. For a team that has one albatross contract [and really Wells' contract is like having 2 bad contracts], they can't afford to pay Rios that money.

 

He's put himself and the sox in the position to net a long term CFer who would fit in well with what the sox are trying to do--get younger, more versatile players--by staying ahead of the trends, and foreseeing that other teams may have to sell off players in order to stay financially afloat. We Sox fans are lucky to have a GM like Kenny at the helm, who has the guts to pull moves that only Soxtalk GM's would make.

[witesoxfan]

So, reading through the entire thread within about a day and a half span, one finds two different perspectives.

 

-Alex Rios is a mediocre (underachieving) player and you'd be in rough luck if Toronto gave him to you for free.

 

and

 

-Alex Rios is a fantastic ball player who is very underrated by the mass public.

 

 

I don't know how the ownership of Toronto feels, but, seeing as how Ricciardi came out of the moneyball philosphy, I imagine he relates much more to the latter. If the Jays' are that short on funds, I'd say that ownership feels more like the first. Regardless of any of that, I think a deal could be worked out. Whether Toronto feels they are getting full value is up to them, I imagine.

 

 

What I'd say to both parties (in regards to Sox fans) is that Alex Rios, this year, has provided roughly league average production while playing fantastic defense at like $10 mill a year. Beyond this season, if you assume he's going to do the same as this year from here through the end of his contract, it means he's going to give league average offensive production and great defense (in CF...Sox haven't had anything close full-time since Rowand) for $12.5 mill. Williams was willing to give Hunter $15 mill for 5 years while his defense had declined and he is really nothing more than a slightly above average offensive player, and that defense would turn him into a RF very quickly. Rios turns 29 next season, is signed for like 4-5 years afterwards at $12.5 mill a year, and solidifies anywhere from the 3 or 5 spot in the lineup to the 2, 6, or 7 spot. Rios makes perfect logical sense for the White Sox, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in CF this year.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Ken Rosenthal's take

 

"Yet, the teams that like Rios — and the White Sox have had a longstanding interest in him — are enamored with his 30-home run, 30-stolen base potential and ability to play center field."

 

30 SB's, 30 HR potential? where have you been!!!

 

Two years ago he had 24 HRs, and last year he had 32 SBs.

 

Becoming a 30/30 guy is definitely attainable, especially with playing 81 games at the Cell.

 

 

[Texsox]

The pursuit of HRs has led baseball down a terrible path. He does have the potential.

[EvilJester99]

The pursuit of HRs has led baseball down a terrible path. He does have the potential.

But but chics dig the long ball....

[YASNY]

But but chics dig the long ball....

 

Yes, but not necessarily the home run.

[Texsox]

But but chics dig the long ball....

and by chicks you mean owners, advertisers, tv execs . . .

[HuskyCaucasian]

But but chics dig the long ball....

but not tiny testicles.

[Texsox]

but not tiny testicles.

isn't tiny testicles your screen name at southsiders?

 

"I kid because I care"™

[HuskyCaucasian]

isn't tiny testicles your screen name at southsiders?

 

"I kid because I care"™

No no.... DongKing is.