Adam Dunn Trade rumor thread

[hogan873]

Hell, I'd be willing to take 11-8 in the postseason this year, but I'm an easier sell.

Yeah, 11 wins in the post season will be fine.

[iamshack]

Steve, no offense intended, but it seems extraordinarily out of character for Kenny to leak something like that unless for some other reason(s)...

[SoxFan562004]

Yes, recently with the Pierre and Teahen deals.

cool, thanks for posting the info

Edited June 29, 2010 by SoxFan562004

[witesoxfan]

Wite, my response to you is that while Hudson is MLB-ready now, I will counter by saying that there's still a lot of development needed on him. He's not going to step in and be Strasburg tomorrow, so although his bust potential may be lower, there is still a possibility he'll get to MLB and never make the jump.

 

Hudson isn't, at least as far as I can tell, seen as a sure fire or number one guy, although it's possible that some Washington scouts could disagree and say "get your hands on this guy". If they don't think he's a sure thing, then they're likelyt o ask for more, and they have every right to.

 

They're wagering a more sure thing versus 2 less sure things, but 2 less sure things in a deep draft, and I think right now the Nats believe they have some confidence in their drafting abilities. If I were in their spot, I'd hold out for Flowers + Hudson + more, unless my scouts believed Hudson was going to anchor their rotation right behind Stras for the next 5 years.

 

I can absolutely understand where they'd be coming from too. The knock on Hudson all along has been that his stuff won't translate nearly as well to the majors as it has to the minors over the past year and a half, and I read somewhere, but don't remember where, that he might struggle against lefties at the MLB level (I think it has to do with him not having an adequate breaking pitch to get lefties out). In AAA this year, it's been both good and bad for him against lefties, because his K/9 against lefties is 12.27 and his BB/9 is 2.45 (opposed to 9.08 and 3.26 against RHB respectively), but his HR/9 against lefties is 1.56. Lefties are also hitting .260 against him with a .359 BABIP, but I also don't think that BABIP is extraordinarily high considering the K/9 and HR/9, so there is legitimate concern about him.

 

It will also depend on whether or not the Nationals are really serious about dealing him or if they are just testing the waters, and it will also depend on if anyone else actually wants Dunn. If the Nationals are serious about moving Dunn and getting good value out of him rather than waiting until next year, and no one else wants him, then he'll end up on the Sox sooner rather than later and the Sox should end up getting a relative bargain. I don't see that as the case, and I see the Nationals being fully content with either keeping him and continuing to attempt to resign him, or to take the compensation picks and run. As a result, I think these negotiations are going to be tough and drawn out, because I think the Nationals are probably asking for 2 of Hudson, Flowers, and Viciedo, and I don't know that the Sox can afford to give that up without potentially mortgaging 2011 as a result of this season.

 

I'd personally hate to give up Hudson simply because I like him as much as I do, and I'm honestly not overly fond of Flowers or Viciedo. But the latter two represent cheap minor league talent that can be infused into the MLB team where no other real cheap options are available, whereas Hudson also represents cheap minor league talent, but the Sox have a few guys who may be able to do what Hudson can do at the same exact price. I'd say Hudson is quite clearly the best prospect currently in the White Sox system, but simply due to the depth of the system, they can afford to deal him.

 

(and yes, I almost hate dealing for Dunn simply because Thome, who is an older, cheaper, and slightly worse version of Dunn could have been had in the offseason for simple monetary purposes, but Ozzie had to have his fill of Kotsay. And I hate doing it because this move is so easily countered by the Twins giving up Ramos and a couple other prospects for Cliff Lee, which probably adds 2 wins to them and, in a way, simply offsets the addition of Dunn and at that point in time it's basically a crapshoot to see who wins the division again with the Twins still heavily favored due to the talent on their roster.)

 

 

[GreatScott82]

not happy, unless hudson isnt part of the deal OR we extend Dunn for at least 3 years

Thats a possibility. . KW will have to be creative in the offseason. . but that can happen. They will have to decide on the futures of AJ, Konerko and Jenks before anything.

[Steve9347]

Steve, no offense intended, but it seems extraordinarily out of character for Kenny to leak something like that unless for some other reason(s)...

It wasn't Kenny.

[SoxFan562004]

Thats a possibility. . KW will have to be creative in the offseason. . but that can happen. They will have to decide on the futures of AJ, Konerko and Jenks before anything.

This is just a gut feeling, even with him pitching a lot better of late, Jenks is already decided on, he won't be coming back

[iamshack]

It wasn't Kenny.

So what you're saying is that Kenny tells his family members which deals are "likely," and one of those persons told someone else, who told you, and you are now reporting this in the open to all of us?

[hi8is]

poop on pessimism

[Vance Law]

Ummmm, Jake Peavy and Alex Rios last year.

 

I will put a finer point on it. This does not seem like Kenny's m.o.: an article comes out saying Kenny is in talks about a specific player, that he is targeting that specific player over and above other similar players (as the "sources" say), and then picks up that player.

 

The Rios example does not apply (though, you're right, I did not elaborate to describe exactly what I meant). Putting in a waiver claim on a player does not involve any negotiating or jockeying for position and bidding among other GMs for the services of the player. You simply put in a waiver claim.

 

With Peavy, I don't recall (and I could be wrong on this) too much discussion before we heard, "the White Sox and Padres have agreed on a deal for Peavy. Now it's up to Peavy to accept or reject it," in May. Again, I could be wrong in that case, and if so, it seems to me one of the few times that has occurred.

 

It seems to me that Kenny operates more frequently in more secrecy to get deals done a la Swisher, Teahen, Quentin. But then again, we haven't been in this situation before with Kenny- midseason, in the race, and with one huge, obvious, glaring hole to fill and a lot of clear options to fill that hole.

 

Either way, Dunn, because of his expected cost in $$ and prospects, particularly if we're making the first big deal of the trade deadline season, would surprise me. If it happened, nothing would then make me happier than if Ozzie made his gut apologize to us for not getting Thome and then resigned (yes, person, obviously not going to happen).

Edited June 29, 2010 by Vance Law

[mmmmmbeeer]

I will put a finer point on it. This does not seem like Kenny's m.o.: an article comes out saying Kenny is in talks about a specific player, that he is targeting that specific player over and above other similar players (as the "sources" say), and then picks up that player.

 

The Rios example does not apply (though, you're right, I did not elaborate to describe exactly what I meant). Putting in a waiver claim on a player does not involve any negotiating or jockeying for position and bidding among other GMs for the services of the player. You simply put in a waiver claim.

 

With Peavy, I don't recall (and I could be wrong on this) too much discussion before we heard, "the White Sox and Padres have agreed on a deal for Peavy. Now it's up to Peavy to accept or reject it," in May. Again, I could be wrong in that case, and if so, it seems to me one of the few times that has occurred.

 

It seems to me that Kenny operates more frequently in more secrecy to get deals done a la Swisher, Teahen, Quentin. But then again, we haven't been in this situation before with Kenny- midseason, in the race, and with one huge, obvious, glaring hole to fill and a lot of clear options to fill that hole.

 

Either way, Dunn, because of his expected cost in $$ and prospects, particularly if we're making the first big deal of the trade deadline season, would surprise me. If it happened, nothing would then make me happier than if Ozzie made his gut apologize to us for not getting Thome and then resigned (yes, person, obviously not going to happen).

 

If this deal goes down in the next 24 hours I think it still fits KW's MO.

[witesoxfan]

Also, for the Sox to be able to afford any type of extension while also having room to add a few pieces, they'll have to get rid of salary from somewhere while plugging in cheap options. For hypothetical purposes, we'll assume that Dunn's addition gets them to the postseason, so they'll maintain a $95 mill payroll. Adding up next year's salaries (assuming they non-tender Jenks, Danks gets $5.5 mill, Quentin gets $4.5 mill, Tony Pena gets $2 mill, Thornton's $3 mill is picked up, and Castro's $.2 mill is bought out) the Sox payroll stands at $79.8 mill. We'll assume that Dunn signs a 3/$36 mill extension ($10 in '11, $12 in '12, $14 in '13). That leaves them at $89.8 mill. That gives them $5.2 million to fill the remaining roster....

 

C - Flowers - $0.4 mill

1B - Viciedo - $1.25 mill

2B - Beckham - $0.4 mill

3B - Teahen - $4.75 mill

SS - Ramirez - $1.1 mill

LF - Pierre - $5 mill

CF - Rios - $12 mill

RF - Quentin - $4.5 mill

DH - Dunn - $10 mill

 

Peavy - $16 mill

Buehrle - $14 mill

Danks - $5.5 mill

Floyd - $5 mill

Sale - $0.4 mill

 

Linebrink - $5.5 mill

Thornton - $3 mill

Pena - $2 mill

Santos - $0.4 mill

Torres - $0.4 mill

?

?

 

Lucy - $0.4 mill

Gartrell - $0.4 mill

Lillibridge/Retherford - $0.4 mill

?

?

 

it's possible to fill the remaining roster spots with minor league fodder, but even just the guesses that I made to fill the remaining roster spots with minimum salary players, it still adds up to $3.2 mill. If you use minimum salary players for those remaining 4 question marks, you are allowed an additional $400k to make another move over the course of the season.

 

That should make it quite clear that if the Sox were to trade for Dunn and then sign him to a subsequent backloaded extension, they'd have to cut salary elsewhere. That would absolutely include getting rid of atleast one of Teahen (where Morel is ready), Linebrink (where anybody BUT Linebrink is ready), Pierre (where the Sox will have to go out and get someone because I sure as hell don't trust anybody within the system to replace Pierre's production with the Sox remaining competitive), or they have to sell off a high upside part for prospects (and the main players to deal would be Peavy, Buehrle, Rios, Danks, Floyd, or Quentin, in order of most money to least money due next year alone).

 

...or you could just not resign Dunn to an extension

[justBLAZE]

Not sure if we can pencil in Dayan Viciedo as Chicago White Sox 2011 1B.

[witesoxfan]

Not sure if we can pencil in Dayan Viciedo as Chicago White Sox 2011 1B.

 

Who else are you going to put there?

[hogan873]

We'll assume that Dunn signs a 3/$36 mill extension ($10 in '11, $12 in '12, $14 in '13).

This is not an argument by any means, but do you think Dunn would sign for "only" $36 million? If so, I'd have no problem with your hypothesis.

[justBLAZE]

Who else are you going to put there?

 

I don't see in house options but please let's wait to determine if Dayan Viciedo is a major league player first.

[Balta1701]

Not sure if we can pencil in Dayan Viciedo as Chicago White Sox 2011 1B.

None of us are. Especially if Kotsay is on the roster somehow.

 

The reality I keep pointing to is...if you spend $8 million resigning Konerko as 1b, you're still DH-Less. And catcher less. And closer-less. And 5th starter-less.

 

We're going to wind up needing him.

[macsandz]

I will put a finer point on it. This does not seem like Kenny's m.o.: an article comes out saying Kenny is in talks about a specific player, that he is targeting that specific player over and above other similar players (as the "sources" say), and then picks up that player.

 

That's exactly what happened just before Kenny traded for Pierre:

 

http://blogs.suntimes.com/whitesox/2009/12...er_talk_fr.html

 

...and Cowley broke the interest and the eventual deal.

[Real]

Dunn is 30 right? So that puts him at a still 'respectable' age going back into Free Agency (3 year deal > 33 years old), which is something he might prefer rather than a 6 year deal which would put him at Jermaine Dye status, something a lot of players who are defensively lacking might not want to endure

[SoxFan562004]

This is not an argument by any means, but do you think Dunn would sign for "only" $36 million? If so, I'd have no problem with your hypothesis.

he got 2/20 last time, I don't think the market has shifted so drastically back to the players side that he should expect that big of a contract (meaning the 3 year deal listed above, I imagine the 2/20 is realistic), although I am saying this without looking at who else is a FA, last time there was at least Abreu, Ibanez, Bradley and Dunn on the market at the same time.

Edited June 29, 2010 by SoxFan562004

[Steve9347]

So what you're saying is that Kenny tells his family members which deals are "likely," and one of those persons told someone else, who told you, and you are now reporting this in the open to all of us?

Just reporting what I heard, from a source that has been accurate the last two times he told me something. Do with it what you want.

[Kalapse]

Kalapse can correct me if I'm wrong, but I've gotten the impression that we have cut some salary this year compared to last, and last year we dumped 2 players at the end of the season to save about $2 million in salary as well.

Taking the $2M dump into consideration the payrolls are basically equal. $102,117,000 last year and $99,575,000 this year. Dock that $2M from last years and they're off by about half a million.

[chw42]

I think Dunn will take $12 million.

 

Everybody knows the guy is a DH.

 

You don't pay your DH for more than 3 years at more than $12 million.

[iamshack]

Just reporting what I heard, from a source that has been accurate the last two times he told me something. Do with it what you want.

Fair enough.

[greg775]

Who...?

 

Dewayne Wise

 

Some of you guys who know the trades/Sox transactions better than I do could list a pretty good team we could field of guys we traded, let go.

And yes I thought Wise was a great final player on the roster. He's way better that this year's final player on the roster, Lilly.