There seems to be a lot of talk of needing to trade a starter this offseason in order to acquire a bat for next year. We tend to try to figure out which starter is the most expendable, meaning who is the worst of the bunch, and then decide that they are the one that needs to get traded.

 

I thought that I would take a different approach and try to figure out who is most likely to be our most effective starter in 2011. This then would be the one pitcher that you definitely would not want to trade away. I'm not necessarily looking at contract issues here, even though I know that plays a large part in making trades and building a team. I'm mainly wondering, all things aside, who is going to be the best pitcher next season?

 

My choice is Gavin Floyd. Without getting into statistical analysis here, I just feel that Gavin is primed to break out and have a big year.

 

What are your thoughts?

Edited November 11, 201015 yr by balfanman

JFP (only for 150 innings)

Mr. Danks

Peavy or Jackson.

I could see it being Edwin Jackson. Working with Coop + naturally great stuff + contract year = potential all-star season

Mark Buehrle will become Super-Buehrle and win the Cy Young. At least that's what I want.

 

I expect it to be a healthy Peavy.

The real question is... how do we lock up Edwin?

The real question is... how do we lock up Edwin?

 

Ball and chain til he signs???

I think Gavin has too many mental issues to ever just be awesome. Not saying he is a wack-job, I think he just over-analyzes things out and is too critical on himself. If I were betting, I would Danks continues to evolve into one of the best in baseball.

Edited November 11, 201015 yr by maggsmaggs

Edwin Freaking Jackson.

 

Daniel Hudson = Brandon McCarthy

I think Gavin has too many mental issues to ever just be awesome. Not saying he is a wack-job, I think he just over-analyzes things out and is too critical on himself. If I were betting, I would Danks continues to evolve into one of the best in baseball.

 

I would agree with you that that has been Gavins biggest issue in the past. I would counter that with none other than our own Ed Farmer. Doesn't Ed Farmer often say that a pitcher will all of the sudden "click the light bulb on", realize that he has the talent to be in the majors, and then takes off? The confidence factor takes over. I don't know if that is where Gavin is at or not, but I have this feeling that he's ready to do just that.

I think it's Danks. I think Floyd is always going to have the better stuff, but Danks takes to the mound with the right mindset every single time.

Right now I would say Danks. If Peavy comes back healthy, however, he could be up there.

I predict Edwin Jackson in a land slide. I hope the starting staff shows up this year because we could dominate this division.

Am I the only one that feels Danks has hit his ceiling? Not saying that's a bad thing. But it seems for the last couple years he was expected to have that 'dominant' season which vaults him into the elite. He's been roughly the same pitcher for the last three years.

Edited November 11, 201015 yr by Jordan4life

Am I the only one that feels Danks has hit his ceiling? Not saying that's a bad thing. But it seems for the last couple years he was expected to have that 'dominant' season which vaults him into the elite. He's been roughly the same pitcher for the last three years.

He's still only 25(26 when the season starts), while it's certainly possible that he's reached his ceiling, I think he's still far too young to say that for sure.

Am I the only one that feels Danks has hit his ceiling? Not saying that's a bad thing. But it seems for the last couple years he was expected to have that 'dominant' season which vaults him into the elite. He's been roughly the same pitcher for the last three years.

His worth is borderline All-Star, but will be paid much more than that.

He's still only 25(26 when the season starts), while it's certainly possible that he's reached his ceiling, I think he's still far too young to say that for sure.

 

I agree. I'm just saying there's really nothing in his rate stats that suggest he was any better in '10 than he was in '08. And I think most would agree that he doesn't have the stuff of a David Price, Clayton Kershaw or Jon Lester. I think it's just assumed that because he's still young that more is yet to come. Not sure that's the case here.

His worth is borderline All-Star, but will be paid much more than that.

 

That's why I'm not against trading him IF he can't be locked up to a reasonable extension. He's not elite. He shouldn't be paid like he is.

Peavy or E-Jax.

Am I the only one that feels Danks has hit his ceiling? Not saying that's a bad thing. But it seems for the last couple years he was expected to have that 'dominant' season which vaults him into the elite. He's been roughly the same pitcher for the last three years.

I would agree with you. I think that Danks will be a 195-210 IP, 15W-10L, 3.60-3.80 ERA with 150-160 Ks per year as long as he stays in the AL. Not that that is bad, but it isn't better than a borderline #2. I think, however, that if he hits free agency, some team is going to give him $100 MM over 6 years. Danks' stock may never be higher than it is right now. If you can sign him to a 4 year, 40 million dollar extension you do it, but if he doesn't sign, you trade him for the best package. If I was KW, I'd trade him for a package of ML ready prospects, or a pre-arb player such as a Colby Rasmus. I don't think that we'd get any grade A prospects for him though, Maybe 1 B+ guy and a couple of B- guys. We've hit a stage in baseball where an A prospect is the most valuable non-superstar player any team can have because he represents cost certainty for 6 years.

Edited November 12, 201015 yr by Elgin Slim

Danks hands down.

 

Not to be a downer, but why all the hope for Peavy? Don't pitchers generally reek after coming back from major surgery?

I'm gonna have to say Edwin Jackson.

Zack Grienke

I'm thinking the safe bet is Buehrle. All of the others I could see as #1 or just as easy as #5. I see Mark as 1-2 or 3. Picking from the rest, Jackson would be my guess.