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TSN picks the Sox over the Tigers in ought 11


southsider2k5
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http://www.freep.com/article/20110131/SPOR...ext|FRONTPAGE|s

 

With the first workout of the spring only a fortnight away, the baseball preview magazines are all over the newsstands.

 

So we'll start today with the granddaddy of 'em all -- the Sporting News.

 

The magazine's headlines for the Tigers say it all: "Roaring back ... some key off-season acquisitions should make the Tigers a big part of the Central conservation again."

 

But the Sporting News predicts the final conversation will be about the improved Tigers being edged for the division title by the slightly more improved Chicago White Sox. (The American League wild card will go to the East runner-up, the Yankees.)

 

Overall, the Sporting News likes the Tigers' offense and bullpen but worries about the rotation. The magazine, of course, went to press before the Tigers switched from Armando Galarraga to Brad Penny as the fifth starter, but it expressed concern about Rick Porcello.

 

The magazine predicted that first baseman Miguel Cabrera would be the American League's most valuable player. He finished second to Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton in last season's voting.

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Like 80% of my friends are Tigers fans and none of them are all that excited about their offseason acquisitions. I think the general consensus is that Dombrowski is making moves just to make moves, and lacks direction. Just reporting what I hear.

 

Also, we're a looong ways away from 20011 (aught-eleven)...like, 18,000 years

Edited by ScottyDo
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Lindy's also picked the Sox to win the Central. I'm pretty much half optimist, half pessimist with this team. I see upside and downside up and down the roster, especially with the every day lineup. I will say I don't think we can win the division without a healthy Peavy, even if it's for half a season, and without big-time bounce-back seasons from Beckham and CQ.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 02:49 PM)
Lindy's also picked the Sox to win the Central. I'm pretty much half optimist, half pessimist with this team. I see upside and downside up and down the roster, especially with the every day lineup. I will say I don't think we can win the division without a healthy Peavy, even if it's for half a season, and without big-time bounce-back seasons from Beckham and CQ.

It really gets tough if you don't have a bounce-back season from 1 of those 3. Everything else pretty much needs to go right; you'd need a similar year from Konerko, you'd need a normal year from Dunn, you'd need the rest of the starters including Jackson to step up, and you'd need the bullpen to be more solid than it was last year. It could happen, but it gets tough.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 01:58 PM)
It really gets tough if you don't have a bounce-back season from 1 of those 3. Everything else pretty much needs to go right; you'd need a similar year from Konerko, you'd need a normal year from Dunn, you'd need the rest of the starters including Jackson to step up, and you'd need the bullpen to be more solid than it was last year. It could happen, but it gets tough.

 

Yeah. When I say 'bounce-back' I don't mean MVP seasons. But they were too bad for way too long last year. Even with Dunn, we don't have enough to compensate if they're as bad again. Alex Rios is another guy that needs to be more consistent. Outside of May, he was very ordinary. And he really fell off in the second half [.684 OPS]. PK was by far and away our most consistent offensive producer last year and he'll almost certainly regress.

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 02:49 PM)
Lindy's also picked the Sox to win the Central. I'm pretty much half optimist, half pessimist with this team. I see upside and downside up and down the roster, especially with the every day lineup. I will say I don't think we can win the division without a healthy Peavy, even if it's for half a season, and without big-time bounce-back seasons from Beckham and CQ.

 

Juan Pierre will lead us to the promised land

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 01:49 PM)
Lindy's also picked the Sox to win the Central. I'm pretty much half optimist, half pessimist with this team. I see upside and downside up and down the roster, especially with the every day lineup. I will say I don't think we can win the division without a healthy Peavy, even if it's for half a season, and without big-time bounce-back seasons from Beckham and CQ.

 

Of all of them, you could survive with a vintage Peavy, and not Gordo or TCQ. But all three are important. You have to expect some regression from Konerko, which I expect to be made up for by the Dunn vs 2010 DH difference. The bullpen is the wild card in all of this. No one really knows what anyone's roles will be for sure until maybe April.

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This prediction thing is easy. Thanks to a 162 game schedule things tend to even out and the better teams win the most games in the end.

 

2010 Tigers won 81 games and got marginally better. Probably to the tune of about 84-85 win team.

2010 Twins won 94 games, they got marginally worse. Probably to the tune of about 90-02 win team.

2010 White sox won 88 games, they got much better. Probably to the tune of 90-93 wins.

 

There you go it aint hard. Will be a 3 team race until eventually the Tigers fall out of it, the Sox/Twins will battle for the division till the end. PRINT IT!

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QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 04:54 PM)
It was a joke and I'm sure he realized that. Maybe I should have used green. Half the posts here the past month have "not been necessary"

Clearly it was a joke. I'm just not sure how anyone benefited from random shots at Juan Pierre. It wasn't discussed in the thread, it didn't add to the discussion, all it did was piss me off, which is, I'd guess, a portion of the intent.

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QUOTE (joeynach @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 03:35 PM)
This prediction thing is easy. Thanks to a 162 game schedule things tend to even out and the better teams win the most games in the end.

 

2010 Tigers won 81 games and got marginally better. Probably to the tune of about 84-85 win team.

2010 Twins won 94 games, they got marginally worse. Probably to the tune of about 90-02 win team.

2010 White sox won 88 games, they got much better. Probably to the tune of 90-93 wins.

 

There you go it aint hard. Will be a 3 team race until eventually the Tigers fall out of it, the Sox/Twins will battle for the division till the end. PRINT IT!

 

I'm not sure the Tigers really are any better than they were last year. I'm guessing the fall below .500

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QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 01:49 PM)
Lindy's also picked the Sox to win the Central. I'm pretty much half optimist, half pessimist with this team. I see upside and downside up and down the roster, especially with the every day lineup. I will say I don't think we can win the division without a healthy Peavy, even if it's for half a season, and without big-time bounce-back seasons from Beckham and CQ.

Beckham being better and PK regressing are two certainties in my mind. Peavy and CQ are the definite X factors, mostly Peavy. We can live with Carlos putting up similar numbers to last season but we can't with Peavy on the dl for most of the season imo.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 05:10 PM)
I'm not sure the Tigers really are any better than they were last year. I'm guessing the fall below .500

I can see a scenario where that happens, but I can also see a scenario where they challenge for the division.

 

They've got 3 key parts; Cabrera, Verlander, and a solid bullpen back end. That's a good starting point. Add in Peralta, Inge, and Martinez, and you've got solid players at a number of positions.

 

Their biggest issue, I think, is how their 2nd-3rd year guys respond. Austin Jackson, Matt Scherzer, and Brennan Boesch had frankly, solid to above solid seasons last year (while Porcello struggled).

 

The back end of their rotation is currently garbage, that's their biggest weakness, but if Porcello and Scherzer pitch well, it might not matter.

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QUOTE (joeynach @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 03:35 PM)
This prediction thing is easy. Thanks to a 162 game schedule things tend to even out and the better teams win the most games in the end.

 

2010 Tigers won 81 games and got marginally better. Probably to the tune of about 84-85 win team.

2010 Twins won 94 games, they got marginally worse. Probably to the tune of about 90-02 win team.

2010 White sox won 88 games, they got much better. Probably to the tune of 90-93 wins.

 

There you go it aint hard. Will be a 3 team race until eventually the Tigers fall out of it, the Sox/Twins will battle for the division till the end. PRINT IT!

 

What would happen if, theoretically, an 87-win Twins team lost their top RBI guy and their dominant closer? Why, they'd win seven more games, of course. :)

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 04:10 PM)
I'm not sure the Tigers really are any better than they were last year. I'm guessing the fall below .500

 

Added Victor Martinez where they had Gerald Laird before. Added Brad Penny where they had Armando Galarraga before. Will have Maggs back from injury, will have Carlos Gullien back from injury, will have Peralta at SS for all of 2011 (had adam everett before).

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QUOTE (joeynach @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 05:31 PM)
Added Victor Martinez where they had Gerald Laird before. Added Brad Penny where they had Armando Galarraga before. Will have Maggs back from injury, will have Carlos Gullien back from injury, will have Peralta at SS for all of 2011 (had adam everett before).

 

Victor Martinez is absolutely terrible defensively and I think is a little overrated offensively. Brad Penny started 9 games last year before being shutdown, and in his only run-through of the AL, he put up a 5.61 ERA with Boston over 22 starts. Ordonez is going to be 37 next year and is a butcher defensively, Carlos Guillen hasn't played a full season since 2007 and has been relatively mediocre the past 2 years (a little over 140 games) with an OPS right around .750. Peralta is a good hitter for a SS, but he gives most of that back with his terrible defense.

 

Oh, and Brandon Inge hasn't been an effective hitter since 2006. He's magnificent defensively, but he's just terrible at the plate.

 

I don't even have the Tigers on the radar. Perhaps that's wrong, but I just don't think they are that good of a team. I have them hanging around .500 and winning way too many close games early on, like they generally do, but then fading in the second half again. This will come down to the Sox and the Twins again.

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QUOTE (sircaffey @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 06:53 PM)
If the Tigers can get average production from their #3-5, they'll be very dangerous. IMO, they have the best hitter, the 2 best SP, and the best bullpen in the division. But ultimately will come down to Penny and Porcello.

I know they added Benoit and they ought to get Zumaya back, but it's worth noting that the Tigers were the #8 bullpen in the AL last year, the Twins were #4 and the White Sox were #5. The White Sox also got rid of 3 of their 4 worst bullpen ERA's last year (Jenks, Linebrink, and Williams) without losing any of their performing Bullpen guys.

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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 31, 2011 -> 06:15 PM)
I know they added Benoit and they ought to get Zumaya back, but it's worth noting that the Tigers were the #8 bullpen in the AL last year, the Twins were #4 and the White Sox were #5. The White Sox also got rid of 3 of their 4 worst bullpen ERA's last year (Jenks, Linebrink, and Williams) without losing any of their performing Bullpen guys.

 

Putz?

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