Evaluating Terry Doyle

[southsider2k5]

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/whitesox-ta...mp;feedID=10338

 

Axelrod got here with almost the exact same scouting report... Thoughts?

 

By JJ Stankevitz

CSNChicago.com

 

In a farm system lacking pitching prospects, Terry Doyle has drawn some attention recently after a couple of quality outings in the Arizona Fall League.

 

Through 12 2/3 innings with the Mesa Solar Sox, Doyle has walked one and struck out eight while allowing two runs, both of which came on solo homers. In 173 innings between Single-A Winston-Salem and Double-A Birmingham, Doyle issued 33 walks with 122 strikeouts, posting a 3.07 ERA.

 

That sounds promising, right? But at age 26, Doyle hasn't rocketed up the team's organizational ladder despite turning in solid seasons in 2009 and 2010.

 

Baseball Prospectus minor league guru Kevin Goldstein offered some insight into why that's the case in a quick e-mail exchange:

 

"Big, big dude. Classic frame, but not much stuff. Upper 80s fastball that scrapes 90-92 at times, better pitch is a mid-80s cutter with some bite. Average curveball and change. He succeeds by hitting his spots and working low in the zone, but there are plenty of questions, and understandably so, about his ability to miss the bats of more advanced hitters. Perfect world is probably middle relief."

 

If you're reading this and thinking "well, wait, wasn't Mark Buehrle kind of like that?" you're not entirely wrong. But Buehrle made his MLB debut at the age of 21 -- if Doyle manages to crack a spot in the majors in 2012, he'll be 27 when he debuts. That doesn't scream "prospect." At best, Doyle could make a few spot starts in case the Sox pitching depth is tested in the future.

[JPN366]

Wrong, his fastball regularly sits at 92 and he hasn't even turned 26 yet.

[john@jmjtc.com]

John, never let a few interesting facts interfere with a good story. The next time Stankevitz or Goldstein see Terry will be their first. And if they don't get a chance to watch him pitch a baseball game, it's their loss.

 

The following is from the Arizone Fall League's website, written by people who have watched him pitch 3 times.

 

"2011 AFL Game Notes

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

 

RHP Terry Doyle (CWS) pitched a league season-high five innings in his start vs. Salt River Monday while yielding one hit (solo HR) and striking out four ... pitched four perfect innings Oct. 11 ... tied for league lead with two wins ... second with 0.32 WHIP ... leads starters with .077 opponents’ batting average (3-39) ... top-10 in ERA (1.42) ... second among starters with 0.71 walks-per-nine-innings ratio (1 BB, 12.2 IP)"

Edited October 19, 2011 by NHDadUmp-RI

[DirtySox]

John, never let a few interesting facts interfere with a good story. The next time Stankevitz or Goldstein see Terry will be their first. And if they don't get a chance to watch him pitch a baseball game, it's their loss.

 

The following is from the Arizone Fall League's website, written by people who have watched him pitch 3 times.

 

"2011 AFL Game Notes

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

 

RHP Terry Doyle (CWS) pitched a league season-high five innings in his start vs. Salt River Monday while yielding one hit (solo HR) and striking out four ... pitched four perfect innings Oct. 11 ... tied for league lead with two wins ... second with 0.32 WHIP ... leads starters with .077 opponents’ batting average (3-39) ... top-10 in ERA (1.42) ... second among starters with 0.71 walks-per-nine-innings ratio (1 BB, 12.2 IP)"

 

What about that has anything to do with seeing him pitch? Those are all quantitative results. Their isn't a single qualitative statement in that blurb.

[JPN366]

This is the problem with "scouting gurus," they outright lie.

[DirtySox]

This is the problem with "scouting gurus," they outright lie.

 

That's a fun accusation. KG has plenty of MLB organizational scouts and sources at his disposal. He merely relays what he's told regarding these guys in conjunction with what one might derive from the statistics.

[witesoxfan]

The only thing I see that is so offensive about that is that he suggests he's a middle reliever in a perfect world. In a perfect world, he improves his curveball and adds a couple MPH and becomes a force in the rotation.

 

Realistically, he projects as more of a middle reliever.

 

Seeing him succeed in the AFL is a good sign, so hopefully he continues to do that.

[JPN366]

The only thing I see that is so offensive about that is that he suggests he's a middle reliever in a perfect world. In a perfect world, he improves his curveball and adds a couple MPH and becomes a force in the rotation.

 

Realistically, he projects as more of a middle reliever.

 

Seeing him succeed in the AFL is a good sign, so hopefully he continues to do that.

 

I wouldn't project an innings eater like Terry as a middle reliever.

[Balta1701]

I wouldn't project an innings eater like Terry as a middle reliever.

In this day and age, "Middle reliever" means "Doesn't have the stuff to start and doesn't have the stuff to close".

 

If his redeeming quality is eating innings but he doesn't have the stuff to get MLB hitters out, that's simply not a path to the bigs.

[john@jmjtc.com]

What gets MLB hitters out, "stuff" or good pitching and good defense?

[knightni]

What gets MLB hitters out, "stuff" or good pitching and good defense?

Yes.

[john@jmjtc.com]

So all we need is 5 #1 starters. Ok, problem solved.

Edited October 26, 2011 by NHDadUmp-RI

[southsider2k5]

What gets MLB hitters out, "stuff" or good pitching and good defense?

 

I haven't seen him pitch, but the numbers tell a story. There are enough guys in the majors who don't have plus stuff, and still manage to get hitters out. Hopefully they invite Doyle to camp so we can get a good look at him.

[witesoxfan]

What gets MLB hitters out, "stuff" or good pitching and good defense?

 

Bit of a loaded question, no?

 

Good pitching is the obvious answer, but you need to have the stuff to do so. Name most pitchers who succeeded in AAA and didn't in the majors and most likely those guys are/were great pitchers, but they simply don't have the stuff to make it in the majors. On the flip side of that are guys like Shane Lindsay who have incredible stuff but are terrible pitchers and get absolutely destroyed for any number of reasons. It's very much a combination, so those two items are not mutually exclusive.

 

Mark Buehrle is the prototypical example of a guy with "no stuff but great pitching" who made it, but as I have mentioned on this board before, Mark Buehrle's entire arsenal makes him have great stuff, even if it doesn't appear to be to the naked eye. He can throw 3 different fastballs and has a solid curve and change too. Still, pretty much all of his success is predicated upon his control, and if his control is off on a few of those pitches, he gets destroyed.

 

So all we need is 5 #1 starters. Ok, problem solved.

 

No, but you need guys who can be successful over the long haul - John Ely comes to mind. I'm pulling like crazy for Terry and he's been a great pitcher thus far. I'm hoping he continues to move up and continues to pitch well because his peripherals have been good enough that he will deserve a shot if he does maintain this success. Hopefully he can become a gem for the Sox and throws for 10 years.

[Pale Sox]

Guys like this....you just have to let them advance and see how it goes. Most of the time you end up with a nobody. But every now and then (and then again) you get a Shaun Marcum. Occasionally, guys defy expectations.

[scenario]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,5838012.story

 

A guy who can throw 4 pitches for strikes and doesn't walk people is gonna get a shot to pitch in the bigs.

 

But the only way I see him getting a shot to be a starter for us is if:

a. A couple people in front of him get hurt

b. When he does get a shot, he has immediate success

 

Older players who were not high draft picks don't get extended trials to prove themselves in MLB.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,5838012.story

 

A guy who can throw 4 pitches for strikes and doesn't walk people is gonna get a shot to pitch in the bigs.

 

But the only way I see him getting a shot to be a starter for us is if:

a. A couple people in front of him get hurt

b. When he does get a shot, he has immediate success

 

Older players who were not high draft picks don't get extended trials to prove themselves in MLB.

 

Guys who win get shots the majors.

[john@jmjtc.com]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...lb&c_id=mlb

 

"Pitching stats not as important in AFL

Mechanics, repertoire key for scouting in hitter-friendly league

 

By Bernie Pleskoff | MLB.com Columnist | Archive

11/07/11 1:20 PM ET Comments 11printe-mailIt's very difficult to evaluate pitching in the Arizona Fall League. In general, pitchers are tired in October.

 

Unless the pitcher suffered an injury, most pitchers have logged a full workload of innings either in college or professional baseball during the season. Fatigue and soreness must be considered when evaluating Fall League pitchers.

 

Many scouts assigned to the AFL concentrate on pitching mechanics, as opposed to results. Pitchers capable of throwing strikes and repeating a clean delivery are highly prized. Command, control and the depth of the pitcher's repertoire are all factors to be evaluated as a pitcher works from outing to outing.

 

...

Terry Doyle is a righty in the Chicago White Sox organization.

 

Doyle presents an interesting starting pitching option for the White Sox. He is a control pitcher with a quick-paced, solid delivery and an ability to manage his game very well. Doyle pitched over two classifications in 2011. He started 11 games at Class A Winston-Salem, where he compiled a 2.84 ERA. Moving to the Double-A Birmingham club in the Southern League, Doyle threw 100 innings over 15 starts. He walked only 22 and struck out 73. His command and control will advance his career. He is the type of pitcher who can be trusted to take his starts at least three times through the lineup.

 

Doyle throws a low-90s fastball, but his bread and butter appears to be a full repertoire including a very solid slider, a low-80s curve and an effective changeup.

 

Doyle projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter who can work following a higher-velocity power pitcher. He has the type of delivery and mechanics that could cause the opposition frustration working quickly and changing speeds consistently."

 

Edited November 8, 2011 by NHDadUmp-RI

[danman31]

That article shows why what Doyle is doing is so impressive. There are so many factors against the pitchers (with that in mind, the Sox hitters have been pretty poor) and stats don't matter, but that's just an excuse for the guys getting rocked. How do you explain/evaluate a guy doing well?

[southsider2k5]

That article shows why what Doyle is doing is so impressive. There are so many factors against the pitchers (with that in mind, the Sox hitters have been pretty poor) and stats don't matter, but that's just an excuse for the guys getting rocked. How do you explain/evaluate a guy doing well?

 

That's how I look at it. If you get an elite pitching performance in an elite hitters league, that bodes really well for the young man.

[danman31]

That's how I look at it. If you get an elite pitching performance in an elite hitters league, that bodes really well for the young man.

It does and it doesn't have to though. I'm certainly not going to discount a player or fall in love with him because of what he did in the AFL. That said, better to do well with the deck stacked against you. I'd say this improves his chances of getting a chance with the Sox though so that's never a bad thing.

[southsider2k5]

It does and it doesn't have to though. I'm certainly not going to discount a player or fall in love with him because of what he did in the AFL. That said, better to do well with the deck stacked against you. I'd say this improves his chances of getting a chance with the Sox though so that's never a bad thing.

 

Of course it isn't an absolutely, but nothing is until they perform at the major league level.

[kitekrazy]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...lb&c_id=mlb

 

"Pitching stats not as important in AFL

Mechanics, repertoire key for scouting in hitter-friendly league

 

By Bernie Pleskoff | MLB.com Columnist | Archive

11/07/11 1:20 PM ET Comments 11printe-mailIt's very difficult to evaluate pitching in the Arizona Fall League. In general, pitchers are tired in October.

 

Unless the pitcher suffered an injury, most pitchers have logged a full workload of innings either in college or professional baseball during the season. Fatigue and soreness must be considered when evaluating Fall League pitchers.

 

Many scouts assigned to the AFL concentrate on pitching mechanics, as opposed to results. Pitchers capable of throwing strikes and repeating a clean delivery are highly prized. Command, control and the depth of the pitcher's repertoire are all factors to be evaluated as a pitcher works from outing to outing.

 

...

Terry Doyle is a righty in the Chicago White Sox organization.

 

Doyle presents an interesting starting pitching option for the White Sox. He is a control pitcher with a quick-paced, solid delivery and an ability to manage his game very well. Doyle pitched over two classifications in 2011. He started 11 games at Class A Winston-Salem, where he compiled a 2.84 ERA. Moving to the Double-A Birmingham club in the Southern League, Doyle threw 100 innings over 15 starts. He walked only 22 and struck out 73. His command and control will advance his career. He is the type of pitcher who can be trusted to take his starts at least three times through the lineup.

 

Doyle throws a low-90s fastball, but his bread and butter appears to be a full repertoire including a very solid slider, a low-80s curve and an effective changeup.

 

Doyle projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter who can work following a higher-velocity power pitcher. He has the type of delivery and mechanics that could cause the opposition frustration working quickly and changing speeds consistently."

 

Sounds a little like MB.

[DirtySox]

Sounds a little like MB.

 

He'll probably be selected in the Rule 5 as he's not currently protected.

[JPN366]

He'll probably be selected in the Rule 5 as he's not currently protected.

 

Fantastic.