6/13 Games

[caulfield12]

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?s...ilb&lid=122

 

Uh, oh.

 

Hawkins 0/3, 3 K's.

 

1 for his last 19. 10 K's over those 19 at-bats.

 

Almost back to .200 again from .229.

Edited June 14, 2013 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

K-Town Intimidators ‏@Intimidators 1h

 

Brandon Brennan has worked six scoreless innings and hasn't allowed a hit since first batter of the game (21 straight batters). #WhiteSox

[southsider2k5]

Josh Feldman ‏@BigTexJosh 2h

 

#WhiteSox Micah Johnson leads off Bot 1 w BB, steals 2B & 3B for 52 SBs this year, 10th time he's stolen 2 bases in 1 trip around the bases.

[danman31]

Hawkins up to 0-5, 5 K. Dash are in extras.

 

I'm rooting for the kid, but I laughed a little to myself at that stat line.

[BigHurt3515]

Hawkins up to 0-5, 5 K. Dash are in extras.

 

I'm rooting for the kid, but I laughed a little to myself at that stat line.

 

That is horrible. Is the pitching THAT good?

[thxfrthmmrs]

Reality check for those who jumped on the Hawkins bandwagon too soon.

 

0-5 with 5 K's is a pretty tough feat, it only further shows he has some serious holes in his swing.

 

Sooner or later, we might have to break up his swing/approach and have him relearn the basics again, i.e. a demotion, while he's still new to the game.

[DirtySox]

Reality check for those who jumped on the Hawkins bandwagon too soon.

 

0-5 with 5 K's is a pretty tough feat, it only further shows he has some serious holes in his swing.

 

Sooner or later, we might have to break up his swing/approach and have him relearn the basics again, i.e. a demotion, while he's still new to the game.

 

From the assessments I've recently read, it's less about a flawed swing and largely due to very poor pitch recognition.

 

Edit: Actually the swing can have its issues apparently:

 

Courtney Hawkins, OF, White Sox (High A Winston-Salem)

The good and the bad certainly stick out with Hawkins’ line this year. On the plus side there is the .596 slugging percentage, highlighted by 11 home runs in 31 games. Then, there is the .229 batting average, .289 on base percentage, and ugly 56/8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. These extremes also show when sitting on the outfielder for a string of games. Hawkins’ strength and ability to drive the baseball jump out. The sound of contact is distinct off the 19-year-old’s bat. The swing is compact, with the young hitter possessing shorter arms that enable him to rip through stuff on the inner half. But the swing gets wild, the well below average pitch recognition is glaring, and a dead pull approach leaves him susceptible to swinging over the top of offerings on the outer half. It’s an overall mixed bag with Hawkins. The present flaws scream, but the talent and what it can develop into speak too. The big take is that without considerable growth in Hawkins’ secondary skills, the hit tool won’t move forward. That growth can, however, take him to a power-hitting corner outfielder.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=20890

Edited June 14, 2013 by DirtySox

[danman31]

I know he's young, but that's an awfully big ask to have him go from 'below average pitch recognition' with a 'wild swing' to being a productive Major Leaguer. Obviously he's talented in some areas, but I'm surprised people are still optimistic about Hawkins.

[thxfrthmmrs]

From the assessments I've recently read, it's less about a flawed swing and largely due to very poor pitch recognition.

 

Edit: Actually the swing can have its issues apparently:

 

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=20890

 

 

I actually think it's more so his approach than anything that results in the absurd K%, while the poor pitch recognition isn't helping with the approach that he's taking, which indirectly results in a extremely low walk %. Does most 19 year olds have holes in their swing? Sure. But Hawkins is striking out at an historic rate. Just by looking at the HR/Hit ration, you can clearly see he's looking to hit one out every time he's batting.

 

If he approach every at bat as just looking for an opportunity to get on base, the rest of his game will come along a lot quicker. It would make sense that BP describe his swing as "wild", as he is trying to dead pull the ball every time. I don't think he has to drastically change his swing, however, with a few minor tweaks and a new, and more humble mentality, he still has a chance to reach his spacious ceiling.

[Jake]

It's literally impossible to look at a guy and tell if he has a bad approach or bad pitch recognition.

 

For the opposite example, I'm of the mind that Miguel Cabrera is not "the smartest hitter in baseball," as Hawk says. I think he's just so good that he doesn't need to be smart or have a good approach because he just sees everything perfectly. However, that is only my opinion because you can't tell the difference.

 

Bad pitch recognition will make your approach look bad and vice versa.

 

Lots of reasons to be optimistic with Hawkins and I think a demotion is a horrible idea.

[caulfield12]

The big take is that without considerable growth in Hawkins’ secondary skills, the hit tool won’t move forward. That growth can, however, take him to a power-hitting corner outfielder.

 

 

What secondary skills is the writer referring to with this dramatic comment?

[Y2Jimmy0]

I know he's young, but that's an awfully big ask to have him go from 'below average pitch recognition' with a 'wild swing' to being a productive Major Leaguer. Obviously he's talented in some areas, but I'm surprised people are still optimistic about Hawkins.

 

 

Let's write off a 19 year old 1st round pick at High A that did not play much baseball as a high schooler. Sounds like a great idea.

[danman31]

Let's write off a 19 year old 1st round pick at High A that did not play much baseball as a high schooler. Sounds like a great idea.

I didn't say I was writing him off.

 

All I said is it's hard to be optimistic about him. Fact is most prospects fail so the odds are against Hawkins to begin with. Prospects with astronomical K rate fail even more often. He has a chance, just not a good one.

[thxfrthmmrs]

It's literally impossible to look at a guy and tell if he has a bad approach or bad pitch recognition.

 

For the opposite example, I'm of the mind that Miguel Cabrera is not "the smartest hitter in baseball," as Hawk says. I think he's just so good that he doesn't need to be smart or have a good approach because he just sees everything perfectly. However, that is only my opinion because you can't tell the difference.

 

Bad pitch recognition will make your approach look bad and vice versa.

 

Lots of reasons to be optimistic with Hawkins and I think a demotion is a horrible idea.

 

There really isn't. The only thing he has going for him is power and age. Other baseball skills are severely lacking. People keeping bringing up he's 19 years old, and we should cut him some slack for his inexperience. We indeed should, to an extent. But at some point this trend should become a major cause for concern. People act like 19 year old high schoolers typically struggle like this when they turn pro, but they really don't. Without looking up stats, his strikeout rate has gotten but one of the worse of all time. And how many 19 year olds who struggle to this extent actually turned out to be a successful major leaguer?

 

Not too long ago, people were cutting the same slacks for Jared Mitchell - he's played pro baseball for less than 2 years, he's coming back from a horrendous injury, he's a supreme athlete he will turn around. The organization can take the same approach with Hawkins as they did with Mitchell - just let him figure things out, and eventually he will start making contact. Or we can take him down one level, start from the basics, and help rebuild his swing and refine his approach. It may be a bit demoralizing in the short run, but it can definitely do more good than harm in the long run.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Let's write off a 19 year old 1st round pick at High A that did not play much baseball as a high schooler. Sounds like a great idea.

 

So if he's 19 years old with less baseball experience, why push him to a level he's not ready for, if lack of experience is the cause for struggle? I am not writing him off by any means, but a demotion makes sense here, the Sox need to take action before they break him.

[Jake]

The competitive difference between low A and high A doesn't make up for the likely psychological damage done by demoting a young guy 30-some games into his first full season of professional baseball.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Rookie ball is fine by me. He just needs to face less advanced pitching while rebuilding his confidence and swing.

[caulfield12]

Rookie ball is fine by me. He just needs to face less advanced pitching while rebuilding his confidence and swing.

 

 

You don't send him back to rookie ball with that kind of money invested in him and an 804 OPS combined between Kanny and Winston-Salem last year.

 

You're panicking.

 

If he's still doing this 3-4 months through 2014, then there's a right to be concerned.

 

Look how long it has taken Trayce Thompson to get to where he is, for example.

 

 

[BigEdWalsh]

The competitive difference between low A and high A doesn't make up for the likely psychological damage done by demoting a young guy 30-some games into his first full season of professional baseball.

Striking out at an insanely alarming rate and batting under .200 is likely causing psychological damage though.

[thxfrthmmrs]

You don't send him back to rookie ball with that kind of money invested in him and an 804 OPS combined between Kanny and Winston-Salem last year.

 

You're panicking.

 

If he's still doing this 3-4 months through 2014, then there's a right to be concerned.

 

Look how long it has taken Trayce Thompson to get to where he is, for example.

 

Am not. At the start of the season, I thought he will go back to Kanny and spend at least 2-3 months there. Most of the board predicted the same. WS is a tough assignment for him, considering how little baseball experience he has had.

 

It's wonderful you brought up Trayce Thompson. It further proves my point. Jared Mitchell has been a major disaster, and Thompson is showing gradual, albeit small improvements each year. Mitchell spent 35 games or so in Low A, before being sent to WS after his injury, with 35 games of full time baseball under his belt. He had a horrendous year at WS of course, but instead of repeating the level, he was rushed to Double A the next season. He is a hopeless prospect now. Hawkins isn't running out of time like Mitchell was. (Same deal with Keenyn Walker, he should be repeating WS this year.)

 

Where as Thompson actually spent 2 1/2 years at Low A and below before he was promoted to WS. He was drafted out of HS known for his athletic ability, same deal as Hawkins. He was promoted only when he has shown he can handle the level for an extended period of time.

 

So yes, take your time you get a Thompson, rush him he will end up with a Mitchell. Sox need to understand these players aren't pitchers like Dan Hudson or Addison Reed, you have to be patient with them. Hawkins, Thompson, Walker and Mitchell are athletes who play baseball, not baseball players who are athletic. They need time to develop, and they are still learning the fundamentals of the game.

Edited June 14, 2013 by thxfrthmmrs

[Jake]

Striking out at an insanely alarming rate and batting under .200 is likely causing psychological damage though.

 

In the blogger call, he did say it was hard to deal with at first but he had learned to overcome that from the encouragement of his coaches and teammates. Lots of "it's a long season" type of stuff.

 

That encouragement sounds like lip service when you demote him less than 40 games into his season. I think it would have a tangibly negative effect. I don't think the talent difference is big enough for it to really matter. The problems are on his end, not the competition's. It is pretty clear that when it clicks, he has no problem dominating somebody. He just has to make it click more often and it might take some ugly games for a while.

 

If he plays his 80th game and it's like this, go ahead and demote him.

[caulfield12]

We went through this same discussion over the last month and now again after he's been struggling for about 20 at-bats again.

 

I think the "psychological hit" of a demotion at this time will be greater than if EVERYONE realizes that something's wrong and maybe even Hawkins and his agent are on board and admitting something needs to be done.

 

Dominating rookie ball won't help him...because those same pitchers won't be facing him in the Carolina League. If it's not about confidence and more about mechanics, then it doesn't matter where he is working on them, if it's Kanny, Winston-Salem or rookie ball. And he's going to get better instruction (at least theoretically) the higher up the chain you go, not to mention that the roving instructors should all be focusing on the Winston Salem and Birmingham rosters.

 

If he fixes himself mechanically, he'll dominate anywhere. If he is having the same issues, he's going to struggle almost everywhere.

 

 

 

[oldsox]

Can he pitch?

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I saw someone say something about this last night on twitter. As a 20 year old in A ball, Glenallen Hill struck out over 200 times (40% K rate). He went on to have a fairly productive major league career and never struck out more than 98 times in a season (and was only over 87 twice).

[witesoxfan]

Rookie ball is fine by me. He just needs to face less advanced pitching while rebuilding his confidence and swing.

 

No. You don't send a guy who has had the success Hawkins has had at High-A down to Low-A or rookie ball. It does absolutely nothing for his development. He'd hit .400 with 30 homers in rookie ball.

 

This is something he needs to work out at High-A. Promotions are silly, but sitting in High-A all year is perfectly fine.