They guy's been rated as 70 hit / 70 power. Who cares how fast he runs or if he can jump over a car?

Damnit, you're right. Sox need to get Joey Gathright

Keith Law said today that Abreu is worth no where near what Cepedes and Puig were because he is not an athlete like they are.

What's funny is I actually used the athletic & positional differences to argue why I didn't think Abreu would get that much more than Cespedes & Puig. I do think he'll get more total money, but I honestly don't think it will that much more the Cespedes on annual basis. Probably 5 to 6 years at $10M to $11M per.

 

Regardless, he doesn't need to be a great athlete to be a good hitter, which is really all we need from him. If the scouts really like him, I think we have to be aggressive with him and maybe go a little above what we're truly comfortable with.

 

I just think if we're going to wait 3 to 5 years for our system to develop some middle of the lineup bats, then we might as well blow this thing up.

Edited August 15, 201312 yr by Chicago White Sox

Unless you explicitly release the player from team control early (like in Cespedes deal), the years on the deal don't mean much

They guy's been rated as 70 hit / 70 power. Who cares how fast he runs or if he can jump over a car?

 

The Bears drafted a guy who can jump out of a swimming pool. 4 years later, he's played in 5 NFL games.

They guy's been rated as 70 hit / 70 power. Who cares how fast he runs or if he can jump over a car?

I think KLaw also disputed the notion of his 70/70 grades. He basically said that means he would hit .320 with 30 HRs right away.

 

For comparison sake, here are the guys in that ballpark last year:

 

Miguel Cabrera (.333/44)

Ryan Braun (.319/41)

Adrian Beltre (.321/36)

Robinson Cano (.313/33)

Andrew McCutchen (.327/31)

Prince Fielder (.313/30)

Mike Trout (.326/30)

Billy Butler (.313/29)

 

I think that is why Law doubts the Abreu hype machine.

Edited August 15, 201312 yr by maggsmaggs

I think KLaw also disputed the notion of his 70/70 grades. He basically said that means he would hit .320 with 30 HRs right away.

So you're saying the White Sox signing him is all but guaranteed?

Huh? Alexei Ramirez? walks? Career walk rate of 5% and has been around 2.8% over the past two seasons.

 

Surprised you were the first to call me on that. I misread that statement badly. I thought he was complaining about the Cubans in general and didn't see the walk thing.

I think KLaw also disputed the notion of his 70/70 grades. He basically said that means he would hit .320 with 30 HRs right away.

 

For comparison sake, here are the guys in that ballpark last year:

 

Miguel Cabrera (.333/44)

Ryan Braun (.319/41)

Adrian Beltre (.321/36)

Robinson Cano (.313/33)

Andrew McCutchen (.327/31)

Prince Fielder (.313/30)

Mike Trout (.326/30)

Billy Butler (.313/29)

 

I think that is why Law doubts the Abreu hype machine.

 

 

Alex Rios (.304/25)

They guy's been rated as 70 hit / 70 power. Who cares how fast he runs or if he can jump over a car?

 

I know I downgrade Miguel because he sucks at 3rd...

I think KLaw also disputed the notion of his 70/70 grades. He basically said that means he would hit .320 with 30 HRs right away.

 

For comparison sake, here are the guys in that ballpark last year:

 

Miguel Cabrera (.333/44)

Ryan Braun (.319/41)

Adrian Beltre (.321/36)

Robinson Cano (.313/33)

Andrew McCutchen (.327/31)

Prince Fielder (.313/30)

Mike Trout (.326/30)

Billy Butler (.313/29)

 

I think that is why Law doubts the Abreu hype machine.

 

Based on the scouting reports, I would expect him to be a similar player to Billy Butler. And as far as Law saying that Cespedes is worth more because he is much more athletic, that is pretty absurd. That would mean that Carl Crawford should have gotten more money than Prince Fielder or Curtis Granderson should make more than Mark Texiera. Cespedes is a great athlete with a ton of power, but his hit tool is below average so he doesn't get as much play from his power tool as he should.

Based on the scouting reports, I would expect him to be a similar player to Billy Butler. And as far as Law saying that Cespedes is worth more because he is much more athletic, that is pretty absurd. That would mean that Carl Crawford should have gotten more money than Prince Fielder or Curtis Granderson should make more than Mark Texiera. Cespedes is a great athlete with a ton of power, but his hit tool is below average so he doesn't get as much play from his power tool as he should.

 

After watching video on him, I can't see a Billy Butler comp at all. His swing is a dinger swing. Slight uppercut with a Longoria/Cespedes-esque follow through. I don;t know if his hit toll is really a 70, but it looks like the power is very real.

I think KLaw also disputed the notion of his 70/70 grades. He basically said that means he would hit .320 with 30 HRs right away.

 

For comparison sake, here are the guys in that ballpark last year:

 

Miguel Cabrera (.333/44)

Ryan Braun (.319/41)

Adrian Beltre (.321/36)

Robinson Cano (.313/33)

Andrew McCutchen (.327/31)

Prince Fielder (.313/30)

Mike Trout (.326/30)

Billy Butler (.313/29)

 

I think that is why Law doubts the Abreu hype machine.

The interview I heard was different. He didn't mention any of the actual scouting. He only said he had never seen him so it's hard to judge the hitting (due to the Cuban league difference) but with the lack of athleticism he didn't expect as much.

The interview I heard was different. He didn't mention any of the actual scouting. He only said he had never seen him so it's hard to judge the hitting (due to the Cuban league difference) but with the lack of athleticism he didn't expect as much.

 

Here was Law's exact quote:

 

Tim (StL)

 

Bowden said his discussions with scouts about Jose Abreu gave him 70 hit/70 power tool - what's your take?

 

Klaw (2:15 PM)

 

That's saying he'll be a .320ish hitter with 30+ bombs. I don't think I have ever had a scout hang those grades on any player to me.

Except for a projected .270's/.280's average (compared to .320's), Viciedo was expected to be the same kind of impact bat and questionable plate discipline/walks/OBP....that Dayan contract was ONLY $10 million and it was the biggest and most unique of its kind back at that time (post 2008).

Edited August 16, 201312 yr by caulfield12

Except for a projected .270's/.280's average (compared to .320's), Viciedo was expected to be the same kind of impact bat and questionable plate discipline/walks/OBP....that Dayan contract was ONLY $10 million and it was the biggest and most unique of its kind back at that time (post 2008).

 

This guy doesn't have questionable plate discipline though, he has a slower bat.

 

Plate discipline makes a huge difference in a hitter.

Edited August 16, 201312 yr by Harry Chappas

If he's 70/70, he's worth $20-25m a year. If he's 60/60, I'll still give him $12m without blinking.

Except for a projected .270's/.280's average (compared to .320's), Viciedo was expected to be the same kind of impact bat and questionable plate discipline/walks/OBP....that Dayan contract was ONLY $10 million and it was the biggest and most unique of its kind back at that time (post 2008).

 

The only similarity I can think of with Viciedo is their power tool. Well that and they are Cuban.

Lets just all come out and say it for Caulfield:

 

He is NO Puig

He seems like he would be a great fit, but I just fear the bidding is going to get to crazy levels. The Red Sox and Rangers have needs at first base, and the Twins and O's keep hinting at going big in the international markets. The A's could jump right back in given their difficulties to attract free agents, and we haven't even touched on the NL.

 

I feel like his contract will blow Puig's and Cespedes out of the water.

He seems like he would be a great fit, but I just fear the bidding is going to get to crazy levels. The Red Sox and Rangers have needs at first base, and the Twins and O's keep hinting at going big in the international markets. The A's could jump right back in given their difficulties to attract free agents, and we haven't even touched on the NL.

 

I feel like his contract will blow Puig's and Cespedes out of the water.

 

If consensus determines he's a 60/60 hitter, I'd be comfortable going up to 5/80

If consensus determines he's a 60/60 hitter, I'd be comfortable going up to 5/80

Well, at least someone here is a realist....

Well, at least someone here is a realist....

 

I wonder if he will be more interested in a short term deal though. Maybe something like 3/27 with the team giving rights to arbitration away at the end of the deal. That way he can be a FA again at 30 and make his money there. If he goes for a long term deal he loses his chance to make a lot more money as he would be a FA until his mid to late 30's.

I wonder if he will be more interested in a short term deal though. Maybe something like 3/27 with the team giving rights to arbitration away at the end of the deal. That way he can be a FA again at 30 and make his money there. If he goes for a long term deal he loses his chance to make a lot more money as he would be a FA until his mid to late 30's.

 

5 years would make him a free agent at 31. If he's making north of $12m per year, I'd be surprised to see him turn down extra years. Cespedes was a little different because he was only getting a guarantee of ~$8m per

I wonder if he will be more interested in a short term deal though. Maybe something like 3/27 with the team giving rights to arbitration away at the end of the deal. That way he can be a FA again at 30 and make his money there. If he goes for a long term deal he loses his chance to make a lot more money as he would be a FA until his mid to late 30's.

I don't think there's a chance he'd go for 3/$45 when he could be staring at 6/$70 easily. Take the extra 30-40 million and hit free agency again at 32.

You still retain team control like any other non-MLB player on these guys unless you explicitly release the player from that team control