Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd 19s

 

The Carlos Rodon bonus demand hammer has dropped. I'm told its $6 million plus. Aiken heavy favorite to go 1-1 now.

The 1-1 slot value is over $7.9 million.

Can someone get me the EXACT percentage of Aiken to the Cubs please?

0% would be exact unless he dies before the draft, which keeps it at 0%.

Edited June 5, 201411 yr by Dick Allen

I'm sure it's been discussed A TON the last few months but I've kinda avoided all the talk because it's a discussion that I have no knowledge in, but why exactly can't Nola be a star?

 

Perhaps I'm blinded by his numbers but a guy who goes 12-1 with a 1.47 era and a sub 1 whip in what looks like a pretty damn good SEC sounds like a player who could be a star....

 

Kevin Gausman is a top 20 prospect in the MLB, in their final seasons at LSU this is how they stack up...

 

KG- 12-2 2.77 ERA 1.08 Whip 123 innings 135 Ks 28 Walks

 

AN- 12-1 1.47 ERA 0.83 Whip 116 innings 134 Ks 27 Walks

Those numbers are against a bunch of players of which the vast majority will never, ever, ever play in the big leagues. All of these top draft picks are men among boys on the fields they play on. That's been the case their entire lives. The stuff is what you look at.

 

Just a quick google search, on Gausman: "Gausman, who is a lanky 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds, has a mid-90s fastball with movement (specifically in on righties) that can hit triple digits, a low-80s changeup (that’s a 15 mile per hour difference relative to his fastball) with a sharp downward drop, and a mid-80s slider that also misses bats. As those five walks indicate, he has complete control of all three pitches and challenges hitters in the zone, working primarily in the lower half. He has also received high marks for mixing his pitches well and for his overall mound demeanor."

 

If Nola sounded like that I wouldn't be against the pick at all.

Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd 23s

 

Make sure you're sitting down but there's a lot of industry chatter that Jeff Loria is meddling in the draft room and will dictate the pick.

 

 

Good, let them do something silly and Rodon falls to us.

Edited June 5, 201411 yr by chitownsportsfan

Those numbers are against a bunch of players of which the vast majority will never, ever, ever play in the big leagues. All of these top draft picks are men among boys on the fields they play on. That's been the case their entire lives. The stuff is what you look at.

 

Just a quick google search, on Gausman: "Gausman, who is a lanky 6-foot-3 and 190 pounds, has a mid-90s fastball with movement (specifically in on righties) that can hit triple digits, a low-80s changeup (that’s a 15 mile per hour difference relative to his fastball) with a sharp downward drop, and a mid-80s slider that also misses bats. As those five walks indicate, he has complete control of all three pitches and challenges hitters in the zone, working primarily in the lower half. He has also received high marks for mixing his pitches well and for his overall mound demeanor."

 

If Nola sounded like that I wouldn't be against the pick at all.

 

Out of curiosity, do you like Aiken?

Really, you still can if you work it out ahead of the draft. The Sox could call up Hoffman and say "We see that chances are you end up with the BJ's at #11. If you agree to #9 slot money we will draft you at #3 and you will make so extra $$." If he says no you move on, if he says yes you save $2.8M that you can spread out through the rest of the draft, plus you get the guy you really wanted anyway. Obviously you need to have a deal in place before the draft, but it is feasible. If the Sox could get get Hoffman, Weaver, and then someone like Keller or Mac Marshall that would fill up a lot of holes in the orgs vacuum of top level pitching prospects. Not the "safe" thing to do, but since the draft is a gamble anyway, I wouldn't be against this approach.

 

Wouldn't hate this if Rodon and Aiken are gone, but talk about a roll of the dice.

Good, let them do something silly and Rodon falls to us.

I think if it were up to Loria, Rodon would be their pick.

Good, let them do something silly and Rodon falls to us.

 

If Loria is meddling that likely means Marlins take Rodon.

Edited June 5, 201411 yr by Marty34

Looking more and more concrete.

1. Aiken

2. Rodon

 

And then....

3. ?

 

Joy.

You probably wouldn't want Quintana either.

At #3, no way!

 

And that's the point, these guys you an find elsewhere. Let them fall into your lap.

 

IIRC the Sox were the only team to offer him a 40-man roster spot. The scouting pays off on deals like this, but the #3 pick is more like a Tanaka situation than Quintana. Just think, for all the s*** people want to talk about Tyler Kolek today, if his name were Tylerio Kolekiedo freshly off his rattan raft trip from Cuba, my god at the amount of money people like Theo and so on would throw at him.

 

I mean we're talking right now about a $5M+ slot bonus and in a little while we'll be throwing something like a coiuple million plus at some kid from the DR who doesn't even have his pubes yet. Perspective.

Good, let them do something silly and Rodon falls to us.

It sounds like the meddling will lead to the Marlins taking Rodon. I think there was a quote before that said Loria had told the FO to take Rodon if available, and this was echoed by Callis in his last mock. Aparently the scouting department prefers Jackson according to the most recent BA mock.

I think tuc read it wrong. It's about Aiken to the Cubs. I'll do the ridiculous and handicap this though. I think I'm giving him very rough odds considering he's the consensus 1 but here we go:

 

60% percent he goes 1

 

50% percent he goes 2 if he's still available

 

50% percent he goes 3 if he's available.

 

 

 

That's a 10% chance he's there for the Cubs. It's actually lower than that though because I'm not accounting for him actually getting picked. Someone with more time/smarter/better at math can do that. Should be like 5 or 6 percent.

 

The math is good, I just don't think there's anywhere close to a 50% chance he goes #2. I think that Marlins are either Rodon or Jackson. So if he gets past 1, he gets to 3. That's my assumption/argument that there's a 20% or greater chance he gets to 4. I'm essentially assuming that there's a 40-60% chance he gets to 3.

Kiley McDaniel ‏@kileymcd 19s

 

The Carlos Rodon bonus demand hammer has dropped. I'm told its $6 million plus. Aiken heavy favorite to go 1-1 now.

That makes me think he's currently negotiating with us because telling the Marlins or Astros 6 million makes no sense.

At #3, no way!

 

And that's the point, these guys you an find elsewhere. Let them fall into your lap.

 

IIRC the Sox were the only team to offer him a 40-man roster spot. The scouting pays off on deals like this, but the #3 pick is more like a Tanaka situation than Quintana. Just think, for all the s*** people want to talk about Tyler Kolek today, if his name were Tylerio Kolekiedo freshly off his rattan raft trip from Cuba, my god at the amount of money people like Theo and so on would throw at him.

 

I mean we're talking right now about a $5M+ slot bonus and in a little while we'll be throwing something like a coiuple million plus at some kid from the DR who doesn't even have his pubes yet. Perspective.

The number 3 pick is a top 5 pitcher? Your perception is all wrong. There isn't a team in the league that wouldn't draft a sure thing at #3. Quintana is a #2 type pitcher.

It sounds like the meddling will lead to the Marlins taking Rodon. I think there was a quote before that said Loria had told the FO to take Rodon if available, and this was echoed by Callis in his last mock. Aparently the scouting department prefers Jackson according to the most recent BA mock.

 

Yeah, this is what I've heard as well.

Out of curiosity, do you like Aiken?

He's my #1 now. I liked him before but he's Coop's pick, so I go with Coop.

That makes me think he's currently negotiating with us because telling the Marlins or Astros 6 million makes no sense.

 

Agreed. $6m is about exactly what I'd expect he'd demand at #3.

He's my #1 now. I liked him before but he's Coop's pick, so I go with Coop.

 

If Aiken and Rodon are off the board do you prefer Kolek, Nola or Jackson? I'd probably go with Jackson at that point. The highest rated position player in any given draft is almost always at least a MLB player.

The number 3 pick is a top 5 pitcher? Your perception is all wrong. There isn't a team in the league that wouldn't draft a sure thing at #3. Quintana is a #2 type pitcher.

He was a MiLB FA before he was a top MLB starter.

 

Nola is NOT a sure thing. Anything but.

 

Obviously if the Sox had a crystal ball things would be different. All they have is Buddy Bell, turn him over and shake him.

The number 3 pick is a top 5 pitcher? Your perception is all wrong. There isn't a team in the league that wouldn't draft a sure thing at #3. Quintana is a #2 type pitcher.

 

If you can get a potential ace for $5M you take the chance over a "sure" #2-3.

He was a MiLB FA before he was a top MLB starter.

 

Nola is NOT a sure thing. Anything but.

 

Obviously if the Sox had a crystal ball things would be different. All they have is Buddy Bell, turn him over and shake him.

 

That's likely the best use of Buddy Bell, too.

He was a MiLB FA before he was a top MLB starter.

 

Nola is NOT a sure thing. Anything but.

 

Obviously if the Sox had a crystal ball things would be different. All they have is Buddy Bell, turn him over and shake him.

 

That could only help.

He's my #1 now. I liked him before but he's Coop's pick, so I go with Coop.

 

So why? His main draw his his polish and "knowing how to pitch". Good 93-94 fastball, tops out at 97. 4 pitches for strikes.

 

Just because he is 3 inches taller? Lefty? What is the reason why Nola is trash in your book but Aiken is a high reward guy?

If Aiken and Rodon are off the board do you prefer Kolek, Nola or Jackson? I'd probably go with Jackson at that point. The highest rated position player in any given draft is almost always at least a MLB player.

 

Hoffman well under slot an option?

Jackson would be great... but I guess that Sox have already used too many top picks on outfielders in their recent past.