Is this still not understood?

 

They will spend the money even if they don't get the BPA. That would be the point.

 

By "spend the money," I meant "do not allow the prospect of saving money on slot for later deter you from choosing the BPA at 3."

Maybe then the Marlins go back to Jackson, leaving Aiken for the Sox?

 

Yes. Even though Jackson isn't slam dunk to Marlins, there at least seems to be higher probability of Jackson to Marlins than to Houston (from what little we know of Houston's thought process).

 

Having choice among Kolek, Aiken and Nola is really nice.

Still think it will be a choice between Kolek and Nola. Both have pros and cons.

 

How quickly will they help the team vs. potential ace,

Is this still not understood?

 

They will spend the money even if they don't get the BPA. That would be the point.

I think he means on the BPA instead of spending less on the top pick so you can spend more on later picks. I'm with him 100% on that.

Sean (SF) [via mobile]

 

Crazy how many people are caught up in Koleks velocity more than his tools

Klaw (1:58 PM)

 

Bingo. If I wanted to crush him, I'd argue that he has below-average command, his slider isn't effective vs LHB because he can't locate it, he doesn't throw his changeup, and he'll have to work to maintain his physical conditioning. If I didn't tell you that he throws 100 mph, wouldn't you ask why the heck that guy was in consideration in the top few picks?

 

J (Toronto)

 

So why is Kolek #3 on your board?

Klaw (2:02 PM)

 

Because he's 6'6" and throws 100 mph with a chance for a 60 or 70 slider. He looks totally uncoached to me.

I still think people underestimate the fact that Sox could conceivably rate Nola as high because they think he will be a great pitcher not necessarily just because he is "safe".

Could he hold his guy out a year and pitch in an independent league?

 

It's possible, but it's extremely risky given the rigidity of the draft rules now. When Crow did it, it was essentially still an open market. For Rodon to ultimate push his sign date back two years is to hope to avoid injury and maintain velocity just to enter the draft at age 24, having lost all semblance of leverage, all for the ultimate upside of less than $2m of slot bonus from 3 to 1. Realistically, even in the very remote scenario where everything in the world goes right for him and he gets popped #1 at 24 in 2016, the team that picks him is going to get him for underslot anyway, because wtf else is he going to do at that point? Meanwhile, he would probably be accruing service time in the Majors by then if he'd just taken his $5m in 2014.

Could he hold his guy out a year and pitch in an independent league?

 

That would be crazy, but maybe Boras is crazy enough to try it. That would be a huge risk though and Boras could kiss his empire goodbye if it doesn't work.

Also from Law chat

 

Sean (SF) [via mobile]

 

Crazy how many people are caught up in Koleks velocity more than his tools

Klaw

(1:58 PM)

 

Bingo. If I wanted to crush him, I'd argue that he has below-average command, his slider isn't effective vs LHB because he can't locate it, he doesn't throw his changeup, and he'll have to work to maintain his physical conditioning. If I didn't tell you that he throws 100 mph, wouldn't you ask why the heck that guy was in consideration in the top few picks?

It's possible, but it's extremely risky given the rigidity of the draft rules now. When Crow did it, it was essentially still an open market. For Rodon to ultimate push his sign date back two years is to hope to avoid injury and maintain velocity just to enter the draft at age 24, having lost all semblance of leverage, all for the ultimate upside of less than $2m of slot bonus from 3 to 1. Realistically, even in the very remote scenario where everything in the world goes right for him and he gets popped #1 at 24 in 2016, the team that picks him is going to get him for underslot anyway, because wtf else is he going to do at that point? Meanwhile, he would probably be accruing service time in the Majors by then if he'd just taken his $5m in 2014.

 

The Sox are well positioned because of Sale/Cooper and their general success with developing pitchers to tell Boras and Rodon: "Ok you can not sign with us and go back to college or try some crazy Indy league, or you can sign with us for slot, work your ass off, and be on the Chris Sale plan. You'll be accruing service time by this time next year, so sign".

Also from Law chat

 

Honestly I'm more worried about his arm falling off then anything related to his being "fat". Fat pitchers are fine, just don't tell me his elbow is gonna break from throwing 95+ all the time.

It's possible, but it's extremely risky given the rigidity of the draft rules now. When Crow did it, it was essentially still an open market. For Rodon to ultimate push his sign date back two years is to hope to avoid injury and maintain velocity just to enter the draft at age 24, having lost all semblance of leverage, all for the ultimate upside of less than $2m of slot bonus from 3 to 1. Realistically, even in the very remote scenario where everything in the world goes right for him and he gets popped #1 at 24 in 2016, the team that picks him is going to get him for underslot anyway, because wtf else is he going to do at that point? Meanwhile, he would probably be accruing service time in the Majors by then if he'd just taken his $5m in 2014.

 

I was just trying to come up with options for leverage.

 

I agree it's risky but Boras does alot of out of the box thinking. Why would he have to wait 2 years and not just enter the draft next year.

Appel could have gone #1 in 2012, but refused to sign. The Pirates drafted him, he didn't sign and wound up going #1 in 2013 and signed for significantly under slot. He did make about $350k extra in what was alledgedly offered to him to be #1 in 2012 vs. 2013, but that seems like a best case scenerio and a steep price to pay for even the extra year it probably costs him before he gets to arbitration.

I still think people underestimate the fact that Sox could conceivably rate Nola as high because they think he will be a great pitcher not necessarily just because he is "safe".

 

Indeed. Isn't the SEC one of the best conferences in college baseball??? Hard to argue with the success he had there. I like him more because of production than the fact that he's "safe" or is closest to the majors, those are just pluses.

I was just trying to come up with options for leverage.

 

I agree it's risky but Boras does alot of out of the box thinking. Why would he have to wait 2 years and not just enter the draft next year.

 

He wouldn't. I thought you were responding to my earlier point where I said he would have no leverage NEXT year because he was a senior.

Also from Law chat

 

J (Toronto)

 

So why is Kolek #3 on your board?

Klaw

(2:02 PM)

 

Because he's 6'6" and throws 100 mph with a chance for a 60 or 70 slider. He looks totally uncoached to me.

Pssh. You are slow on posting those 2K5.

 

Justin (Chicago)

 

If a team can teach Luke Weaver a breaking ball how does that change his projected ceiling?

Klaw (2:09 PM)

 

That's not a minor "if," but I've half-joked that the White Sox should take him in the second round, and in three months he'll be throwing a plus slider.

He wouldn't. I thought you were responding to my earlier point where I said he would have no leverage NEXT year because he was a senior.

Got it. Sorry, I missed that part.

I still think people underestimate the fact that Sox could conceivably rate Nola as high because they think he will be a great pitcher not necessarily just because he is "safe".

 

 

Is Wacha considered an ace? Nola sounds like the closest thing to a Wacha type in this draft. Nola may not have the ace ceiling, but he probably has the lowest chance at busting. I prefer Aiken, Rodon, and Jackson to him, and really Hoffman too on a steep discount, but Kolek seems too much in the Broxton/Bobby Jenks mold that I am not sure he would be a better pick. The baseball draft is really a crapshoot. I am for drafting which ever guy allows you to be more aggressive in pursuing lottery tickets later in the draft instead of rolling the dice on one high upside guy and then having to pinch pennies on org players in the rest of the top 10.

Navin (Pasadena, CA) [via mobile]

 

You mentioned the Cubs are the floor for Aiken. About how likely would it be he falls to 4?

Klaw

(2:06 PM)

 

20%.

Nick (Pittsburgh) [via mobile]

 

 

Rodon still have ace potential?

Klaw

(2:07 PM)

 

Yes. Needs some delivery help - might actually throw harder and certainly should command the fastball better. Got to lengthen him out.

Pssh. You are slow on posting those 2K5.

 

Justin (Chicago)

 

If a team can teach Luke Weaver a breaking ball how does that change his projected ceiling?

Klaw (2:09 PM)

 

That's not a minor "if," but I've half-joked that the White Sox should take him in the second round, and in three months he'll be throwing a plus slider.

 

Yes, please. Though if Nola is the pick, you probably want a HS school with more upside in round 2.

Seems like Law is starting to praise the Sox more and more in his comments. Kiss of death!

Seems like Law is starting to praise the Sox more and more in his comments. Kiss of death!

 

He really likes Hahn and what he's done.

20 percent is way too much for Aiken falling to 4.

Yes, please. Though if Nola is the pick, you probably want a HS school with more upside in round 2.

 

What is the deal with Nola is his ceiling like a 3rd starter (2-4 WAR) and his floor is like a 4th (1-3 WAR)? If one of the big three is on the board I have a hard time seeing Chicago taking him seeing how rare true aces are coupled with that fact that Chicago has a few low floor 3rd to 4th starter types already in the system.