what return would alexei net?

[Balta1701]

I think Rick Hahn does though.

 

I think we're overvaluing Alexei a bit on here. I'm not saying they don't have the right to ask for a lot, but even if not all of the guys pan out, the Sox got a great return for Peavy last year and I'd gladly take a similar package again.

Alexei ought to be quite a bit higher priced than Peavy. Signed for an extra year as a team option, less expensive, putting up ~ equal value in the advanced statistic world.

[Eminor3rd]

That's fine, if we don't get a top 10 in MLB prospect that's ok, but if we can't get somewhere in the range of top 25-ish or couple top-100 then I don't have any good reason to listen.

 

I don't think he's worth that -- I understand you want to hold out for an overpay, but I think we should be willing to move him for fair market value.

[GreenSox]

We got one top 100 prospect for Addison Reed. We should be able to get more for Alexei.

 

As for the Peavy return, we barely got what we did for Peavy. The only team that would give us a top prospect we liked was a team that didn't need Peavy.

The number of sellers is only going to rise, so we need to get with it.

[Balta1701]

I don't think he's worth that -- I understand you want to hold out for an overpay, but I think we should be willing to move him for fair market value.

I think that is fair market value.

[Eminor3rd]

Alexei ought to be quite a bit higher priced than Peavy. Signed for an extra year as a team option, less expensive, putting up ~ equal value in the advanced statistic world.

 

That's not how price is determined, though. How many teams are involved + how badly the teams need to fill a hole + quality of available prospects on the teams involved + number and quality of other options available on the market + how attitudes and prices have changed regarding prospects and veterans = what he's "worth."

 

My opinion is that he's "worth" a Peavy-deal, but that has nothing to do with how he compares to Peavy, that's just a good proxy for the amount of prospect talent I'm referring to.

[Balta1701]

That's not how price is determined, though. How many teams are involved + how badly the teams need to fill a hole + quality of available prospects on the teams involved + number and quality of other options available on the market + how attitudes and prices have changed regarding prospects and veterans = what he's "worth."

 

My opinion is that he's "worth" a Peavy-deal, but that has nothing to do with how he compares to Peavy, that's just a good proxy for the amount of prospect talent I'm referring to.

But you're missing a huge portion of the equation there...how badly team needs to move payroll, what team has coming up behind it, what state team is for duration of player's contract.

 

The White Sox clearly needed to move Jake Peavy's $15 million, they had no use for him this year, they thought they had a guy who could replace him until EJ completely blew up, and there was at the time virtually no chance of fielding a competitive team before his contract ends. None of those are true with Ramirez. The Sox can afford his contract, he's still useful to them, there's no clear-cut "ready to replace him right now" candidate, and it's entirely possible that they'll be fielding a competitive team before his contract ends.

 

Thus the White Sox should also be in a position to hold out for a higher price or decide not to move him at all. If they don't move him I will not be mad. If they didn't move Peavy I'd have been very mad.

[cabiness42]

But you're missing a huge portion of the equation there...how badly team needs to move payroll, what team has coming up behind it, what state team is for duration of player's contract.

 

The White Sox clearly needed to move Jake Peavy's $15 million, they had no use for him this year, they thought they had a guy who could replace him until EJ completely blew up, and there was at the time virtually no chance of fielding a competitive team before his contract ends. None of those are true with Ramirez. The Sox can afford his contract, he's still useful to them, there's no clear-cut "ready to replace him right now" candidate, and it's entirely possible that they'll be fielding a competitive team before his contract ends.

 

Thus the White Sox should also be in a position to hold out for a higher price or decide not to move him at all. If they don't move him I will not be mad. If they didn't move Peavy I'd have been very mad.

 

This. Every exact word of it.

[witesoxfan]

But you're missing a huge portion of the equation there...how badly team needs to move payroll, what team has coming up behind it, what state team is for duration of player's contract.

 

The White Sox clearly needed to move Jake Peavy's $15 million, they had no use for him this year, they thought they had a guy who could replace him until EJ completely blew up, and there was at the time virtually no chance of fielding a competitive team before his contract ends. None of those are true with Ramirez. The Sox can afford his contract, he's still useful to them, there's no clear-cut "ready to replace him right now" candidate, and it's entirely possible that they'll be fielding a competitive team before his contract ends.

 

Thus the White Sox should also be in a position to hold out for a higher price or decide not to move him at all. If they don't move him I will not be mad. If they didn't move Peavy I'd have been very mad.

 

The quality of the player matters though too. Ramirez is not the defensive player he was 2-3 years ago and his offense hasn't gotten any better (or worse, for that matter). He may be the best SS on the market, but that doesn't immediately make him worth a top 25-50 prospect or two top 100 prospects. Peavy was coming off a very good season and he hadn't pitched poorly leading up to his trade last year either.

 

Again, I'm not saying they have to deal Ramirez, but I think you have to be more willing to deal him than you are suggesting.

[elrockinMT]

Exactly. We have two more years under control for Ramirez. If someone wants to overpay, you send him. If not, you bring him back. At absolute worst, the guy is a plus defender, and someone who doesn't hurt you at the plate.

 

 

I agree with your assessment but how dare you actually show some respect and make a legitimate analysis of a Sox player

[Balta1701]

The quality of the player matters though too. Ramirez is not the defensive player he was 2-3 years ago and his offense hasn't gotten any better (or worse, for that matter). He may be the best SS on the market, but that doesn't immediately make him worth a top 25-50 prospect or two top 100 prospects. Peavy was coming off a very good season and he hadn't pitched poorly leading up to his trade last year either.

 

Again, I'm not saying they have to deal Ramirez, but I think you have to be more willing to deal him than you are suggesting.

Well I'm not going to be. I'll be disappointed unless the return is something along those lines and a fair amount better than the return for Peavy.

[GGajewski18]

The quality of the player matters though too. Ramirez is not the defensive player he was 2-3 years ago and his offense hasn't gotten any better (or worse, for that matter). He may be the best SS on the market, but that doesn't immediately make him worth a top 25-50 prospect or two top 100 prospects. Peavy was coming off a very good season and he hadn't pitched poorly leading up to his trade last year either.

 

Again, I'm not saying they have to deal Ramirez, but I think you have to be more willing to deal him than you are suggesting.

 

 

Alexei is hitting .282, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HRs, 41 RBIs, 15 SBs, slugging 400 and an OPS of 718.

 

Of course he was going to hit some sort of slump because he was not going to maintain the 330-350 average that he was hitting before. Those are still great numbers for a SS who is on a great contract and has a solid career. You can definitely net a great deal.

[witesoxfan]

Well I'm not going to be. I'll be disappointed unless the return is something along those lines and a fair amount better than the return for Peavy.

 

Then I think you'll be disappointed.

 

Alexei is hitting .282, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HRs, 41 RBIs, 15 SBs, slugging 400 and an OPS of 718.

 

Of course he was going to hit some sort of slump because he was not going to maintain the 330-350 average that he was hitting before. Those are still great numbers for a SS who is on a great contract and has a solid career. You can definitely net a great deal.

 

He has the 11th best wRC+ and WAR. He's a good shortstop. He will help a team down the stretch but I do not believe he is the type of player that a team view as a make or break piece.

 

If the packages they are getting are similar to the ones the Sox were reportedly getting for Jermaine Dye in 2007 (Wily Mo Pena and Manny Delcarmen, two talented but struggling players), then I 100% agree you hang onto him. I think you can get a good package of young players for him and I think he'll be dealt.

[Chisoxfn]

Then I think you'll be disappointed.

 

 

 

He has the 11th best wRC+ and WAR. He's a good shortstop. He will help a team down the stretch but I do not believe he is the type of player that a team view as a make or break piece.

 

If the packages they are getting are similar to the ones the Sox were reportedly getting for Jermaine Dye in 2007 (Wily Mo Pena and Manny Delcarmen, two talented but struggling players), then I 100% agree you hang onto him. I think you can get a good package of young players for him and I think he'll be dealt.

I agree with your posts but also agree w/Balta's. Both very good posts.

[Dunt]

But you're missing a huge portion of the equation there...how badly team needs to move payroll, what team has coming up behind it, what state team is for duration of player's contract.

 

The White Sox clearly needed to move Jake Peavy's $15 million, they had no use for him this year, they thought they had a guy who could replace him until EJ completely blew up, and there was at the time virtually no chance of fielding a competitive team before his contract ends. None of those are true with Ramirez. The Sox can afford his contract, he's still useful to them, there's no clear-cut "ready to replace him right now" candidate, and it's entirely possible that they'll be fielding a competitive team before his contract ends.

 

Thus the White Sox should also be in a position to hold out for a higher price or decide not to move him at all. If they don't move him I will not be mad. If they didn't move Peavy I'd have been very mad.

 

Great post.

[Eminor3rd]

But you're missing a huge portion of the equation there...how badly team needs to move payroll, what team has coming up behind it, what state team is for duration of player's contract.

 

The White Sox clearly needed to move Jake Peavy's $15 million, they had no use for him this year, they thought they had a guy who could replace him until EJ completely blew up, and there was at the time virtually no chance of fielding a competitive team before his contract ends. None of those are true with Ramirez. The Sox can afford his contract, he's still useful to them, there's no clear-cut "ready to replace him right now" candidate, and it's entirely possible that they'll be fielding a competitive team before his contract ends.

 

Thus the White Sox should also be in a position to hold out for a higher price or decide not to move him at all. If they don't move him I will not be mad. If they didn't move Peavy I'd have been very mad.

 

 

The quality of the player matters though too. Ramirez is not the defensive player he was 2-3 years ago and his offense hasn't gotten any better (or worse, for that matter). He may be the best SS on the market, but that doesn't immediately make him worth a top 25-50 prospect or two top 100 prospects. Peavy was coming off a very good season and he hadn't pitched poorly leading up to his trade last year either.

 

Again, I'm not saying they have to deal Ramirez, but I think you have to be more willing to deal him than you are suggesting.

 

I also think you're overrating Alexei in two years. We're talking about an already declining player getting further from his prime versus a promising player getting closer to his prime. In 2016, how likely is it that Alexei is a better player than Carlos Sanchez? I don't think Sanchez is a sure thing at all, but it feels like the most likely outcome is close to a wash. And in this case, the cost of betting against both Sanchez' development and Alexei's age is forfeiting a quality return that (if we don't botch it) will be relevant by 2016, either in terms of trading chips or players coming up.

Edited July 14, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[GreenSox]

Thus the White Sox should also be in a position to hold out for a higher price or decide not to move him at all. If they don't move him I will not be mad. If they didn't move Peavy I'd have been very mad.

I'll be disappointed if we don't at least seriously try to move Alexei. And I don't think we're seriously trying.

We didn't have to move Peavy last year - he had a year left. But I thought it was urgent because 1.5 years > 1 year, but also the risk of him declining was high. I see the same risk in Alexei. And as each day passes, the risk climbs (especially if he keeps up the miserable offense he's been putting up for the last month). Thankfully, Peavy pitched well leading up to the deadline last year.

 

I'll take a top 50 prospect +3 A Ball prospects for him (essentially what we got for Peavy).

[SCCWS]

Alexei is hitting .282, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HRs, 41 RBIs, 15 SBs, slugging 400 and an OPS of 718.

 

Of course he was going to hit some sort of slump because he was not going to maintain the 330-350 average that he was hitting before. Those are still great numbers for a SS who is on a great contract and has a solid career. You can definitely net a great deal.

 

You can only net a great deal if a team feels they need a SS to make the playoffs. The Red Sox won a WS w JD Drew and they signed him again so they can deal him at the trading deadline. He would bring a mediocre return but some team may do that as opposed to offering a great deal for Alexei. There may be other trade possibilties for SS as well.

 

[Jerksticks]

There are very few players that I have wanted to let their value "expire" in a White Sox uniform but Alexei is one of those guys. I was a huge proponent of moving Danks/Floyd/Reed and every other decent closer we have had since Keith Foulke but with Alexei, I think his defense at a premier position is too important to let go for what would be, in my opinion, an underwhelming return. Even with looming physical deterioration, Alexei still has great plate coverage, some of the best instincts in baseball and he does all of the little things right. Looking at the potential 2B/3B options, defense should be a priority at SS. I do think, at the least, Alexei should play out his contract as a positive player in the lineup. Worst case, that's a powerless SS with good contact skills and slightly above average defense (slightly above defense being a regression from his current form). Having Alexei as your SS and #9 hole hitter through 2015 (2016 if he doesn't fall off) is not going to hurt any team.

 

Agreed. I guess it all depends on how the FO views our MI depth. You have to agree though that Alexei is pretty much our one trade chip to get a good player.

[The Ginger Kid]

He still won't take the throw while stradling the bag, but I say keep him.

[kevo880]

I just think it just completely depends on what is being offered back. We have players that can play SS, but not at the level of Alexei. I don't see Hahn being scared to try Sanchez there as long as the haul that we get back is promising. I think it is essential to get a near MLB ready starting pitcher (similar to how we got Avi, except a pitcher) plus younger upside prospects. I would be very happy to get a Peavy like return for Alexei.

 

I think it would be terrible to dump him for a lesser package though because he has a good contract and still fits in with what the team is trying to do. If we didn't have the surplus of middle infield depth at AAA then I wouldn't want to trade him at all.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

I would be very happy to get a Peavy like return for Alexei.

I would barf.

 

If they trade Alexei, they better do a lot better than Avisail Garcia and some lower tier prospects.

[Chisoxfn]

I would barf.

 

If they trade Alexei, they better do a lot better than Avisail Garcia and some lower tier prospects.

I think that would be a pretty excellent return. A top 50 prospect + some high upside lower level guys would be nice.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

I think that would be a pretty excellent return. A top 50 prospect + some high upside lower level guys would be nice.

SS is a premium position and Alexei is among the best in the league, is only 32 years old and is under control for two ore sesons at a reasonable salary. The Sox have no one in the organization pushing him, so they have no reason to trade him unless they get an offer they can't refuse.

 

If some contender wants a top level SS like Alexei to put them over this season plus be under team control the next two seasons, they better be willing to cough up more than a flawed prospect like Garcia, an outfielder with poor defense who is big and strong but has never hit for much power and who has great speed but already seems to have lost a half step and is probably going to lose more speed as he gets heavier and older. He may have been rated as a top 50 prospect by somebody, and he may turn out to be a productive player yet, but for Alexei the Sox better get a top 50 prospect that is more of a complete player and has proven more than Garcia has to this point. Plus a few more good prospects.

[TheFutureIsNear]

SS is a premium position and Alexei is among the best in the league, is only 32 years old and is under control for two ore sesons at a reasonable salary. The Sox have no one in the organization pushing him, so they have no reason to trade him unless they get an offer they can't refuse.

 

If some contender wants a top level SS like Alexei to put them over this season plus be under team control the next two seasons, they better be willing to cough up more than a flawed prospect like Garcia, an outfielder with poor defense who is big and strong but has never hit for much power and who has great speed but already seems to have lost a half step and is probably going to lose more speed as he gets heavier and older. He may have been rated as a top 50 prospect by somebody, and he may turn out to be a productive player yet, but for Alexei the Sox better get a top 50 prospect that is more of a complete player and has proven more than Garcia has to this point. Plus a few more good prospects.

 

All I got out of your post is that you really dislike Avisail Garcia....I have a feeling that you're going to be disappointed if you're expecting a more talented prospect than Garcia in return for Alexei.

 

[Bigsoxhurt35]

What better prospect than Avi were we getting for an injury prone starter?