Finding a LH/Switch hitting OFer

[caulfield12]

Without looking at names, if you tell me a guy has had 1 good season in the last 5 and another has had 4 good seasons in the last 5, I think the player most likely to have a good season the following year is the guy with 4 good seasons.

 

Yes, there is a risk, but there is with any move. Ethier has a track record productivity but he's seen his playing time diminish substantially this year due to a logjam in the OF and 1B which can mess with a player's psyche and rhythm, both of which are important to production.

 

The Dodgers would have to include a considerable amount to make the deal worthwhile - he's guaranteed $54.5 mill over the next 3 seasons, so I'd say they need to cover approximately $24 million, at the bare minimum (John Danks just so happens to be owed $28.4 mill over the next 2 seasons, which is $26 million over 3 seasons). You give them Danks, Trayce Thompson, and Kevan Smith/Adrian Nieto/Josh Phegley and see where they're at.

 

 

Wasn't that pretty much Adam Dunn's situation when he was acquired...had slumped for 2+ months to end a season? Or Scott Downs?

[caulfield12]

Nitpicking but Ethier has only played 1st base for 4 innings in his career.

 

It'll be interesting to see what the Dodgers do with their glut of outfielders. I think you can pencil in Pederson in CF and Puig in RF, but then they have Crawford, Ethier, Kemp and Van Slyke for the 3rd and 4th spots. I would think they would be inclined to keep Van Slyke because he can back up CF as well as 1B, with both positions being held down by left-handed bats. I would actually take on a package of Ethier, Van Slyke and cash but I don't know what would make sense as a return. Turnaround and sign Rasmus to a one year deal.

 

LF, 1B and DH would be covered by Rasmus/Ethier/Van Slyke/Abreu. Abreu could play plenty of DH with Van Slyke starting at 1B. CF and RF would be Eaton and Garcia with Rasmus being able to take over in CF if/when Eaton gets injured.

 

Defense, left-handedness and power is improved. Ethier isn't great as whole but he's a left-handed bat that could play against RHP. Rasmus is a nut job but on a risk-free contract his defense and left-handed power is exactly what we need. Van Slyke seems like he just needs playing time. He gets better every year, has a great idea of the zone and is a decent defender with a little flexibility. Plus (SSS alert!), he has been horrible at Dodger Stadium this year and amazing on the road.

 

vs. RHP

CF Eaton

SS Alexei

1B Abreu

DH Ethier

RF/LF Garcia

RF/LF Rasmus

C Flowers

3B Gillaspie

2B whoever

 

vs. LHP

CF Eaton

3B Semien

1B/DH Abreu

RF Garcia

LF/1B Van Slyke

DH/LF Ethier/Rasmus

SS Ramirez

C Flowers

2B whoever

 

 

Please define exactly how low this no-risk Rasmus deal is going to go...I'm not buying it.

 

He's going to get a lot more than Keppinger, Downs and Paulino combined per season.

 

[witesoxfan]

Wasn't that pretty much Adam Dunn's situation when he was acquired...had slumped for 2+ months to end a season? Or Scott Downs?

 

It was also the case of Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye too.

[witesoxfan]

Please define exactly how low this no-risk Rasmus deal is going to go...I'm not buying it.

 

He's going to get a lot more than Keppinger, Downs and Paulino combined per season.

 

If by per season, you mean on a 1 year contract, I might agree. I think someone might be willing to give him $8-10 mill for this season as a flyer. I don't think anybody would give more than $5-6 mill on a multi-year deal for him with how badly he played this year and how inconsistent he's been throughout his career.

[Chisoxfn]

For Justin Morneau? I think you're crazy.

Well then call me crazy.

[Chisoxfn]

Without looking at names, if you tell me a guy has had 1 good season in the last 5 and another has had 4 good seasons in the last 5, I think the player most likely to have a good season the following year is the guy with 4 good seasons.

 

Yes, there is a risk, but there is with any move. Ethier has a track record productivity but he's seen his playing time diminish substantially this year due to a logjam in the OF and 1B which can mess with a player's psyche and rhythm, both of which are important to production.

 

The Dodgers would have to include a considerable amount to make the deal worthwhile - he's guaranteed $54.5 mill over the next 3 seasons, so I'd say they need to cover approximately $24 million, at the bare minimum (John Danks just so happens to be owed $28.4 mill over the next 2 seasons, which is $26 million over 3 seasons). You give them Danks, Trayce Thompson, and Kevan Smith/Adrian Nieto/Josh Phegley and see where they're at.

There a lot of reasons to explain Ethier's downside that aren't he's past his prime. Most of them have to go with inconsistent playing time and overall unhappiness with the situation. I think Ethier is a really nice fit who can play a solid LF and could also fill in at 1B and DH and play match-ups. You then find a right handed bat as well who you can use in the outfield and at DH as well. You still have plenty of AB's to go for Semien / Sanchez / Johnson too.

[SCCWS]

Isn't that a downgrade to Tampa's offense?

 

 

Not necessarily. Tampa would be giving up a 33yr old $7 Mil # 1 0r 2 batter for a 25 yr old # 5 or 6 batter who makes less than 1/2 what Zobrist does. Tampa got 2 young infielders in the Price trade so they may make Zobrist available.

[caulfield12]

There a lot of reasons to explain Ethier's downside that aren't he's past his prime. Most of them have to go with inconsistent playing time and overall unhappiness with the situation. I think Ethier is a really nice fit who can play a solid LF and could also fill in at 1B and DH and play match-ups. You then find a right handed bat as well who you can use in the outfield and at DH as well. You still have plenty of AB's to go for Semien / Sanchez / Johnson too.

 

 

Then you're also willing to buy the "Davidson sucked this year largely due to disappointment about not starting the season with the White Sox as the Opening Day starter at 3B" theory?

[caulfield12]

Not necessarily. Tampa would be giving up a 33yr old $7 Mil # 1 0r 2 batter for a 25 yr old # 5 or 6 batter who makes less than 1/2 what Zobrist does. Tampa got 2 young infielders in the Price trade so they may make Zobrist available.

 

 

Except Zobrist is 10X more valuable WAR-wise because of his versatility, better defensive abilities and overall offensive superiority except in homers.

 

To call Viciedo a 5/6 hitter doesn't really jive with that WAR. Just because Ventura's hit him 5-7 for most of this season doesn't mean he's lived up to that expected level of production.

 

Considering the fact that half or or more of the board don't even want to tender Dayan a contract for 2015, why would the Rays give up ANYTHING for that level of production or MORE when they can get it for free on the waiver wire (see JD Martinez or Steve Pearce, McHugh or Noesi on the pitching side, etc.)?

Edited September 24, 2014 by caulfield12

[Chisoxfn]

Then you're also willing to buy the "Davidson sucked this year largely due to disappointment about not starting the season with the White Sox as the Opening Day starter at 3B" theory?

No. Ethier's suckitude has been an OPS+ below his career norms but not horrendous, ~96 OPS+. Ethier is in another realm. Paid big money and always been a starter and someone whose production has been worthy of being a starter, so no, I don't think it is a valid argument at all.

[GGajewski18]

If you go with the premise that anyone is available there's so many more guys you could have named.

 

Coors Field products like Corey Dickerson

 

Jay Bruce coming off a bad year.

 

These are my guys that I'm targeting.

 

I would target Dickerson and Rex Brothers from the Rockies and try to get Jay Bruce and Mat Latos from the Reds.

[witesoxfan]

Well then call me crazy.

 

I just don't like Morneau as I think it puts the Sox in the same exact spot they were last year with Dunn. Morneau's a different hitter and a better pure hitter than Dunn was, but you are stuck at 1B and DH with those guys. It'd be nice to use the DH spot to keep guys' bats in the lineup while resting their legs a bit.

 

There a lot of reasons to explain Ethier's downside that aren't he's past his prime. Most of them have to go with inconsistent playing time and overall unhappiness with the situation. I think Ethier is a really nice fit who can play a solid LF and could also fill in at 1B and DH and play match-ups. You then find a right handed bat as well who you can use in the outfield and at DH as well. You still have plenty of AB's to go for Semien / Sanchez / Johnson too.

 

And this is why I think Ethier makes the most sense to me.

[Chisoxfn]

I just don't like Morneau as I think it puts the Sox in the same exact spot they were last year with Dunn. Morneau's a different hitter and a better pure hitter than Dunn was, but you are stuck at 1B and DH with those guys. It'd be nice to use the DH spot to keep guys' bats in the lineup while resting their legs a bit.

 

 

 

And this is why I think Ethier makes the most sense to me.

Oh I agree...I'm not pushing Morneau. I am okay with him cause he is better then Dunn and at the right price it is fine but I think there are better options that give us more flexibility. The only thing I'm not doing is giving guys 4 or 5 year deals that we don't think are going to have high potential impact or are going to be on the severe downside of their careers in years 3 / 4 / 5. I.e., Russ Martin. Only one I would even think of is Victor Martinez and that is on a 2 year deal where he over estimated the market and ends up staying out too long and other teams have addressed needs and you can get him at a value. Do I expect the same production, no, but even if you got 80 to 90% of it, you are talking about a nifty bat. When you go 3 or 4 years, just count me out.

[caulfield12]

These are my guys that I'm targeting.

 

I would target Dickerson and Rex Brothers from the Rockies and try to get Jay Bruce and Mat Latos from the Reds.

 

 

Latos will be too expensive in terms of minor league talent surrendered.

 

Bruce, there's no way they're going to sell so low unless they believe he's never going to return to his previous form.

 

Finally, would the Reds really be interested in Alexei Ramirez when they have Zack Cozart already? Ditching Latos/Bruce/Phillips doesn't make logical sense to then turn around and bring in another aging veteran and block a younger/developing guy at a premium position.

[max power]

Either is one of the most inconsistent hitters in baseball if I remember correctly. I believe I read an article stating he is the most inconsistent/streaky hitter in baseball about 2-3 years ago.

Edited September 24, 2014 by MAX

[LDF]

There a lot of reasons to explain Ethier's downside that aren't he's past his prime. Most of them have to go with inconsistent playing time and overall unhappiness with the situation. I think Ethier is a really nice fit who can play a solid LF and could also fill in at 1B and DH and play match-ups. You then find a right handed bat as well who you can use in the outfield and at DH as well. You still have plenty of AB's to go for Semien / Sanchez / Johnson too.

 

I like that, the only problem I have is to acquire Ethier with a trade off for Danks.

nah, the only way is if dodgers will sweeten the deal with dodgers sending a prospect.

ok but don't get me wrong, we all know that the dodgers will not include Pederson nor

Seager.

[Eminor3rd]

I like that, the only problem I have is to acquire Ethier with a trade off for Danks.

nah, the only way is if dodgers will sweeten the deal with dodgers sending a prospect.

ok but don't get me wrong, we all know that the dodgers will not include Pederson nor

Seager.

 

Ethier is more useful than Danks, and costs about $20m more. I'd ask the Dodgers to split the difference in cash and make the deal today.

 

A platoon partner for Viciedo is way more valuable to us than 200 more innings of 5.00 - 5.50 ERA ball, IMO.

Edited September 24, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[LDF]

Ethier is more useful than Danks, and costs about $20m more. I'd ask the Dodgers to split the difference in cash and make the deal today.

 

A platoon partner for Viciedo is way more valuable to us than 200 more innings of 5.00 - 5.50 ERA ball, IMO.

 

if you have to remember that the sox has way better scouts and medical people at their

disposal. with that, the idea as some posters have said, Ethier may be on the tail end

of his career. so they have to pony up.

 

but lets be reasonable, why would the sox do the deal???? not to just get rid of Danks and

his contract,

[Eminor3rd]

if you have to remember that the sox has way better scouts and medical people at their

disposal. with that, the idea as some posters have said, Ethier may be on the tail end

of his career. so they have to pony up.

 

but lets be reasonable, why would the sox do the deal???? not to just get rid of Danks and

his contract,

 

I don't understand, why wouldn't they do that deal? If you could just cancel the Danks contract today, wouldn't you do it?

[Vance Law]

Here's a dude who is blocked in Pittsburgh.

Andrew Lambo

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/p...id=lambo-001and

 

Just turned 26 but he missed a whole year with an injury. Anybody know much else about this guy?

 

Edit: The more I look at the numbers the more I like his potential. Seems like he was pushed above his age level and was a top 100 guy early. Missed his age 23 year with a wrist injury, and put up .900 plus OPS his two years since returning.

 

 

With LF and DH openings, this seems like just the sort of left handed power bat to target. He's got no future in Pittsburgh with Marte, McCutchen, Polanco, Davis, Sanchez, Alvarez there.

Edited September 25, 2014 by Vance Law

[macsandz]

FYI, two players Rick and co. have big board eyes on are Ackley (LF) & Butler (DH).

 

 

[2nd_city_saint787]

FYI, two players Rick and co. have big board eyes on are Ackley (LF) & Butler (DH).

 

That'd be a bucket of suck.

[Vance Law]

FYI, two players Rick and co. have big board eyes on are Ackley (LF) & Butler (DH).

 

Can you tell them about my Andrew Lambo idea? thnx, bro.

[fathom]

FYI, two players Rick and co. have big board eyes on are Ackley (LF) & Butler (DH).

 

Maybe Ackley is the guy Hahn mentioned they were close to getting at the deadline? Personally, I don't think these two are much better than what ADA and Dunn were

[macsandz]

Maybe Ackley is the guy Hahn mentioned they were close to getting at the deadline? Personally, I don't think these two are much better than what ADA and Dunn were

 

...maybe.