Three YEPS and three NOPES

[caulfield12]

Victor is having his best season. Still he is a lifetime wRC+ 125 . If he has an average for him year that is a lot more help in a spot the team has nothing than if Wilson has an average year for him vs. Flowers.

 

 

Except there are 20-25 alternatives to Victor Martinez (of course, not the same level of production, but age and cost/production are just as revelant....along with future projected production), and only a few to Wilson.

 

Of course, that's why Wilson will end up with 9-12 bidders for his services and Victor Martinez only 3-4 at 3+ years and and $16-22 million per season.

 

In the end, the Sox won't go after either player because of the prohibitive cost of outbidding too many other teams.

 

[shysocks]

Russell Martin, folks. Not Wilson.

 

Can you find an example of a team that paid a guy that age after a career year and didn't regret it?

I am sure the Red Sox don't regret hanging on to Big Papi.

One, I said after a career year; Ortiz had a typically Ortiz year in 2011, his age-35 season. And two, Ortiz signed a 1 deal after that season for about $15M, followed by a 2/$25M contract. Maybe that's more an indicator of what VMart should cost, but it'll be more.

 

For all those railing against V Mart, what other lefty free agent can we sign who is (1) younger, (2) just as consistent throughout his career, and (3) cheaper than V Mart? That player likely does not exist, or we would be debating him instead of V Mart.

If a guy fulfilled (1) and (2), then (3) wouldn't be possible. So that player definitely doesn't exist. But others have named alternatives.

[Dick Allen]

Not only do you need to factor injury risk, but we also need to realize that Victor Martinez is having his BEST season by far. This is a career year. He's not likely to repeat even if he DOES stay healthy. You're suggesting that he's been a superstar his entire career, but he never approached this type of season at the plate even in his prime. He's a career 125 wRC+ -- which is very good, especially for a catcher -- but is at 167 this year. That's in a different ballpark altogether. Additionally, there are several outlier peripherals that are major red flags for regression. Chiefly: 6.6% K rate (compared to a career 10.4%) and a 16.0% HR/FB rate (compared to a career 10.7%).

 

All the performance risk that applies to Russell Martin's career year applies to Victor's. More injury risk applies to Victor thanks to age. Because half of Martin's value comes from defense (and most of that from aspects of defense that age well), he's MUCH more valuable even if they both regress 25%. And Victor is probably going to make more money, at least on an AAV basis, despite the fact that they were similarly valuable this year: Victor @ 4.4 fWAR, Martin at 5.2 fWAR.

 

They both come with risk, for sure, as any free agent does. But I definitely think Martinez comes with more, and it's primarily due to age.

I disagree about more injury risk when one is pretty much strickly a DH and the other is catching.

[Jerksticks]

It's tough depending on 1 player in general. The Nate Jones injury was huge and had a rippling effect on the whole bullpen. If VMart were to get hurt or decline, then I'm scared we would have the same lineup again. I think we should trade for a young left-handed hitter. Maybe spending this year just doesn't make sense.

[Balta1701]

It's tough depending on 1 player in general. The Nate Jones injury was huge and had a rippling effect on the whole bullpen. If VMart were to get hurt or decline, then I'm scared we would have the same lineup again. I think we should trade for a young left-handed hitter. Maybe spending this year just doesn't make sense.

If we pulled off a successful trade for a young, left-handed hitter (particularly a corner OF, although now I'm out of potential names) then suddenly spending on a Martinez could make a whole lot more sense.

[caulfield12]

 

 

 

Not a whole lot of LH options out there right now.

 

 

 

 

Heyward

 

L.Martin

 

Gardner

 

Yelich

 

Span

 

Blackmon

 

Seth Smith, but we'd be severely overpaying for in terms of talent coming off this season...

 

then you have the likes of Dave LaRoche and the oft-mentioned Rasmus

 

 

 

 

Victor Martinez, Justin Morneau, Ibanez, Carlos Pena, Adam Lind, Ethier, Crawford...past their primes

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2014 by caulfield12

[witesoxfan]

Seth Smith just signed an extension with San Diego. I think he's safe for at least a year.

[Kyyle23]

Seth Smith just signed an extension with San Diego. I think he's safe for at least a year.

 

Pretty sure we have said that many times to Caulfield, he just refuses to accept it. He is caulfields white squier stratocaster guitar.

 

 

He will be mine, oh yes, he will be mine.

[Chisoxfn]

Would that "really alter the lineup" though? There are another 15 who have an OPS over .817.

 

The difference between a guy at the top of that list and a guy in the mid .800s is huge. Adding 2 of those latter guys, yeah that's a big lineup change. Adding one more of them? Nice contributor, but not going to suddenly turn this lineup into a force.

Ok, so you are adding one of the top 15 to 30 offensive players in the game to your lineup? Yes, that alters your lineup. Under what situation does it not? That is adding a guy who is the #1 hitter on half of the teams in this league to go with Abreu, given you two guys when a lot of teams don't have one.

[Chisoxfn]

This may be true but why push the payroll to ~100 for a few more wins when you have Andy Wilkins???

Yeah...cause that Andy Wilkins guy is going to do things. I swear, most everyone on this board would never build a winning team and just wants to sit around and constantly win 80 games. You aren't going to win with the strategy a lot of you propose. If you can fit it, short term, do it. I don't mind a 2 yr deal at big money as that is a time where you can spend it to take team closer and more likely to compete with other things going well and it doesn't block at bats from anyone and give you a quality vet for young players to learn from.

 

If it doesn't work out, you aren't any worse off as we had the payroll flexibility and we haven't filled it up in yrs 3 and 4 where you likely will be changing where you allocate those resources.

[Balta1701]

Yeah...cause that Andy Wilkins guy is going to do things. I swear, most everyone on this board would never build a winning team and just wants to sit around and constantly win 80 games. You aren't going to win with the strategy a lot of you propose. If you can fit it, short term, do it. I don't mind a 2 yr deal at big money as that is a time where you can spend it to take team closer and more likely to compete with other things going well and it doesn't block at bats from anyone and give you a quality vet for young players to learn from.

 

If it doesn't work out, you aren't any worse off as we had the payroll flexibility and we haven't filled it up in yrs 3 and 4 where you likely will be changing where you allocate those resources.

My counterpoint is that I feel like a lot of people would prefer $100 million+ teams that win 78 games to the low 70's win team we have right now. Maybe that's a slightly more watchable team, but it's still a long way from a contender.

 

And yes, a 2 year deal can still cost payroll flexibility. If we can't add anything useful in the trade market this year, then IMO we'd have a better shot at filling holes following the 2015 season in free agency, but if we blow $25 million on a veteran DH and a couple multi-year relievers this offseason, we're not making a big splash during the 2015 offseason when I think we'd have a more well-rounded shot.

 

That said, again, a single trade could change all that. Right now in my eyes we have way too many holes to think that a big, late 30's signing signing and a couple relievers will turn this team into contenders. Find someone to fill that corner OF spot in a trade and that tune could change.

[Dick Allen]

Nick Markakis or Chase Headley seem like better solutions to me. Both will be cheaper, both are younger, and both have the ability to hit for power. Headley is actually perfect for this team because he could take the starts at 3B vs. LHP and start in LF vs. RHP. In fact, I'd rather the Sox use $25 million per year to sign those two than use $20 million per year to sign Martinez. It will pay a lot bigger dividends both short term and long term.

Chase Headley playing the majority of time in LF is not a solid idea. He is a GG like 3B.

[witesoxfan]

Chase Headley playing the majority of time in LF is not a solid idea. He is a GG like 3B.

 

I am not entirely opposed to the idea of bringing in Headley and using Gillaspie essentially in the Adam Dunn role. Headley has high upside as a hitter, though he hasn't been anywhere near it in 2 years, plus the great defense can save some runs too.

 

I also wouldn't endorse that either. Seems to be a waste to have a guy who plays an acceptable 3B being allocated primarily as a 1B/DH.

[Vance Law]

Chase Headley playing the majority of time in LF is not a solid idea. He is a GG like 3B.

 

The one thing he is best at on the baseball field is 3B defense. If we got Headley, he should be starting at 3rd. Conor then should be traded or part of a DH platoon and backup 3B/1B. You can hope for Headley to return to form at the plate, but if you're one of the people who was unimpressed with Gillaspie's offense, you're sure not going to like Headley putting up another .700 OPS at 3B.

[Dam8610]

Chase Headley playing the majority of time in LF is not a solid idea. He is a GG like 3B.

 

 

The one thing he is best at on the baseball field is 3B defense. If we got Headley, he should be starting at 3rd. Conor then should be traded or part of a DH platoon and backup 3B/1B. You can hope for Headley to return to form at the plate, but if you're one of the people who was unimpressed with Gillaspie's offense, you're sure not going to like Headley putting up another .700 OPS at 3B.

 

Okay, then platoon Conor in LF, stick Headley at 3B, and Viciedo and Gillaspie split LF and DH. Or if they get Markakis as well, Avi moves to LF, Gillaspie and Viciedo split DH and back up corner OF and corner IF.

[2nd_city_saint787]

A Gillaspie/Eaton/Avi OF sounds awful defensively. If they bring in Headley (or Sandoval) then Conor is your DH or is traded.

[Balta1701]

A Gillaspie/Eaton/Avi OF sounds awful defensively. If they bring in Headley (or Sandoval) then Conor is your DH or is traded.

I think it could be OK. Avi's weak but Eaton was really strong this year when he was in there.

[Balta1701]

You realize Gillaspie has never played LF right?

 

This Gillaspie as the starting LF thing needs to do. He'd be a slightly worse version of De Aza offensively and who knows defensively.

Yes, I realize that, but I also am not going to make a guess. Maybe he'd have decent instincts for it, no idea. He's not likely to be that much worse than Viciedo out there.

[caulfield12]

Teahen would come back to play 3B then, or Uribe?

 

 

C'mon. Gillaspie as a corner outfielder is just not a good idea. Platoon outfielder, at that.

[fathom]

Gillaspie doesn't seem to have the agility to play in the outfield.

[Vance Law]

Andrew Lambo. Somebody shoot me down.

[witesoxfan]

Andrew Lambo. Somebody shoot me down.

 

What would the Sox give the Pirates? That's a team that values its young assets very highly. He also strikes out a fair amount and he was banged up this year. It also took a few tries for him to find success in AAA. Frankly, I'm not sure how much of a better option he is than Jordan Danks or Andy Wilkins from the left side of the plate. Are you willing to give up Chris Beck or Tyler Danish for him? Because that's what it might cost.

 

Partly playing devil's advocate, partly playing realist. I like Lambo but I'm not sure he is a guy that should be on the Sox radar. I would probably take him for Viciedo, but why would the Pirates want Viciedo?

[shysocks]

You realize Gillaspie has never played LF right?

 

This Gillaspie as the starting LF thing needs to do. He'd be a slightly worse version of De Aza offensively and who knows defensively.

I agree. Out of nowhere people were putting Gillaspie in the outfield one day. I don't think it's an option.

[Balta1701]

What would the Sox give the Pirates? That's a team that values its young assets very highly. He also strikes out a fair amount and he was banged up this year. It also took a few tries for him to find success in AAA. Frankly, I'm not sure how much of a better option he is than Jordan Danks or Andy Wilkins from the left side of the plate. Are you willing to give up Chris Beck or Tyler Danish for him? Because that's what it might cost.

 

Partly playing devil's advocate, partly playing realist. I like Lambo but I'm not sure he is a guy that should be on the Sox radar. I would probably take him for Viciedo, but why would the Pirates want Viciedo?

The Pirates could have a use for Viciedo playing as a 1b/Part time, even platooning with Ike Davis there. I don't know if he's valuable enough for them to part with Lambo, but I could see them being willing to move Pedro Alvarez in something like that much more given the prices involved. They might well be ready to scrap-heap alvarez.

[witesoxfan]

The Pirates could have a use for Viciedo playing as a 1b/Part time, even platooning with Ike Davis there. I don't know if he's valuable enough for them to part with Lambo, but I could see them being willing to move Pedro Alvarez in something like that much more given the prices involved. They might well be ready to scrap-heap alvarez.

 

I guess I could see use there, but do they want to pay a part time player up to $3-4 mill per year? Those are pretty limited at bats for a guy that they might be able to find for 1/3 of that cost.