The more I read, it sounds like you are right. I guess how many "amateur" international players are available that are worth risking $100 million? Or any serious major league contract?

 

I pointed a question at Ben Balder at BA, and got a response that Moncada CANNOT sign a major league deal, because of his age and status under the new international rules. So all of his contract that is signed is subject to the bonus pool rules.

 

So I was right when I initially said that a $100 million deal would cost the team about $200 million because of the 100% overage tax rules.

 

Anyone who is talking about a $100 million deal is insane. We are probably looking at a number around Dayan Viciedo's or Alexei Ramirez's initial contracts because of the tax considerations.

I pointed a question at Ben Balder at BA, and got a response that Moncada CANNOT sign a major league deal, because of his age and status under the new international rules. So all of his contract that is signed is subject to the bonus pool rules.

 

So I was right when I initially said that a $100 million deal would cost the team about $200 million because of the 100% overage tax rules.

 

Anyone who is talking about a $100 million deal is insane. We are probably looking at a number around Dayan Viciedo's or Alexei Ramirez's initial contracts because of the tax considerations.

Thanks for the info. There's going to be some serious competition for this kid, should be an interesting story to follow.

 

 

No way he only signs for 4.5-10 million. It should be very interesting to see how much he does sign for because he'd be the first signing of this type in the current CBA. I see it's more likely to be 50-100 million over 7-9 years.

 

I don't believe you can sign a minor league deal for a number of years. That means the idea of a 7 to 9 year deal is wrong. Again, Balder flat out stated the kid CANNOT sign a major league deal. At that point all you are left with is signing bonus, which is fully taxable under the current international signing system, because of Morcada's age. Even a $10 million deal, becomes a near $20 million deal, as everything over your bonus pool numbers are getting taxed. If a team is over their pool already, like the Yankees, they entire deal would be taxed at 100%. A $50 million deal, really costs them $100 million. A $100 million deal really costs $200 million. And in addition to that, if you aren't over already, you lose the ability to sign guys for TWO years, just so sign this one kid.

I don't believe you can sign a minor league deal for a number of years. That means the idea of a 7 to 9 year deal is wrong. Again, Balder flat out stated the kid CANNOT sign a major league deal. At that point all you are left with is signing bonus, which is fully taxable under the current international signing system, because of Morcada's age. Even a $10 million deal, becomes a near $20 million deal, as everything over your bonus pool numbers are getting taxed. If a team is over their pool already, like the Yankees, they entire deal would be taxed at 100%. A $50 million deal, really costs them $100 million. A $100 million deal really costs $200 million. And in addition to that, if you aren't over already, you lose the ability to sign guys for TWO years, just so sign this one kid.

I also think the signing bonus can be paid in incruments but has to be fully paid in a year.

I don't believe you can sign a minor league deal for a number of years. That means the idea of a 7 to 9 year deal is wrong. Again, Balder flat out stated the kid CANNOT sign a major league deal. At that point all you are left with is signing bonus, which is fully taxable under the current international signing system, because of Morcada's age. Even a $10 million deal, becomes a near $20 million deal, as everything over your bonus pool numbers are getting taxed. If a team is over their pool already, like the Yankees, they entire deal would be taxed at 100%. A $50 million deal, really costs them $100 million. A $100 million deal really costs $200 million. And in addition to that, if you aren't over already, you lose the ability to sign guys for TWO years, just so sign this one kid.

I believe that is all correct. You sign a contract on this kid, it is ALL bonus and hits the July 2 pool. They are then on a minor league deal - MLB deals are not allowed. If you go over your allotted amount, all those fines and penalties you mention kick in.

 

No one will sign this kid for $100M, or even $50M. At $50M you are paying a $100M bonus and losing picks for two years.

 

I believe that is all correct. You sign a contract on this kid, it is ALL bonus and hits the July 2 pool. They are then on a minor league deal - MLB deals are not allowed. If you go over your allotted amount, all those fines and penalties you mention kick in.

 

No one will sign this kid for $100M, or even $50M. At $50M you are paying a $100M bonus and losing picks for two years.

 

So how much would the Sox be able to offer?

 

Honestly, if what you guys are saying is true, he may just wait a year as he can start a bidding war.

So how much would the Sox be able to offer?

 

Honestly, if what you guys are saying is true, he may just wait a year as he can start a bidding war.

 

$1.6 ish million is what the Sox have left under the cap. I believe the Sox have the most to offer without going over the caps, but I can't find good figures on that.

$1.6 ish million is what the Sox have left under the cap. I believe the Sox have the most to offer without going over the caps, but I can't find good figures on that.

BA said they don't have solid numbers on that either. But if the White Sox do indeed have 1.6M left, that is likely near the top of the list.

 

So how much would the Sox be able to offer?

 

Honestly, if what you guys are saying is true, he may just wait a year as he can start a bidding war.

 

If the Sox are not going to go over the spending cap, they have no chance at getting him, whichever year he is declared a FA. It would be better for the Sox if he were not a FA until July so that they could maximize the number of prospects that they bring in if they are going to surpass the limits.

BA said they don't have solid numbers on that either. But if the White Sox do indeed have 1.6M left, that is likely near the top of the list.

 

I got my number by adding up their July 2 signings and subtracting from the pool number. No idea if they have added others in the mean time.

I got my number by adding up their July 2 signings and subtracting from the pool number. No idea if they have added others in the mean time.

That's the difficulty. Here are the four guys we know they signed to significant bonuses.

 

Did they sign any others to any significant amount since then? Maybe. I don't know, and no one outside the Sox seems to either.

 

If the Sox are not going to go over the spending cap, they have no chance at getting him, whichever year he is declared a FA. It would be better for the Sox if he were not a FA until July so that they could maximize the number of prospects that they bring in if they are going to surpass the limits.

 

 

If he waits until July you have to deal with the Cubs and Rangers though.

If he waits until July you have to deal with the Cubs and Rangers though.

 

And you lose NYY, BOS, and TB.

And you lose NYY, BOS, and TB.

 

 

Very true. So do you think 2015 would be better? I expect the Cubs to go nuts again next year including Vladimir Guerrero Jr for in excess of $3 million.

Very true. So do you think 2015 would be better? I expect the Cubs to go nuts again next year including Vladimir Guerrero Jr for in excess of $3 million.

 

It is impossible to know. I'd tend to think 2015 would be better for us, as the Red Sox and Yankees are the two biggest spenders in baseball historically.

It is impossible to know. I'd tend to think 2015 would be better for us, as the Red Sox and Yankees are the two biggest spenders in baseball historically.

 

I also think it is better because it gives the Sox the chance to do what the Yankees did this year and the Cubs did the year before and really maximize the number of high ceiling players that you bring in when absorbing the penalty. Since those players are all gone this season, the Sox would be sacrificing signing high level players for the next two years for one player. If you can sign three years worth of players then a Moncada signing makes sense.

So...$1.6M left is very good here?

So...$1.6M left is very good here?

 

None of these big names out right now are going to sign for $1.6M. Any notable guy we get will push us in to the penalty, so we may as well just blow right past the limitations and bank on an INT'L draft coming in the next 2 years while we are under sanctions.

You're right here and I understand that but I do believe you can sign a contract for 7-9 years. Kiley McDaniel states that within his article on Moncada. Was Soler a major league contract? Because I know he was more than 6 years.

 

From FanGrahps, Kiley McDaniel:

 

"Since Moncada would be 19 or 20 when he would sign, with a decent stretch of not playing in games, he’d spend a year or two in the minors. Given the current market, that sort of player would probably draw a 9-year deal for $100 million, although that dollar figure could be a little light. With a bonus-only contract structure, you would only get his six control years (like any draft pick) and would have to pay his three arbitration salaries as you go, rather than pre-negotiating them into the long-term deal. Here’s the question: with essentially a dollar-for-dollar tax on the bonus for this player, how much would you pay him in an upfront bonus, in what would surely be a fierce bidding war? I feel like $50 million (with a roughly $45 million tax on top of that) is the most you could justify while $30 million seems reasonable enough that multiple teams may be willing to pay that much."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yoan-moncada-game-theory/

 

I believe Soler signed an MLB deal. He was placed on the 40 man right after signing.

 

Regardless he was before the new rules.

I believe Soler signed an MLB deal. He was placed on the 40 man right after signing.

 

Regardless he was before the new rules.

 

Here we go.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/cubs...orge-soler.html

 

Because of Soler’s guaranteed contract, the Cubs needn’t worry about service time considerations or Super Two status like they would need to with top prospects such as Kris Bryant and Addison Russell. Additionally, his Major League deal meant that he was already on the 40-man roster, so the Cubs don’t need to concern themselves with clearing a 40-man spot.

Ben Badler ‏@BenBadler 10m10 minutes ago

 

Third base, second base, outfield RT @bbeattie4 Does Yoan Moncada have a set position, or is it up in the air between 2B, 3B, & SS?

 

thanks for your hard work in researching all this info.

If the money's going to ANY Cuban, it would be better invested in Moncada than Tomas or Rusney Castillo.

 

The problem's that Moncada is the long-term play here, and how willing is JR to open the purse strings for a guy who might not contribute until 2017 (at the earliest) or 2018?

 

As a White Sox fan, if it's an EITHER Moncada or putting $30-40 million into these next two offseasons, then you have to take the "win now" approach even though Moncada has superstar written all over him and the majority of FA acquisitions are LIKELY to be more incremental improvements, barring a major surprise and opening of the purse strings.

We can't ignore the additional cost of forfeiting all international signings for two years as well.

 

This smells like something that's going to be nuts to me. I highly doubt Hahn takes this kind of risk.

We can't ignore the additional cost of forfeiting all international signings for two years as well.

 

This smells like something that's going to be nuts to me. I highly doubt Hahn takes this kind of risk.

 

 

If he was the age/experience level to get a deal like Abreu/Tanaka, that would be ONE thing.

 

As he's going to dramatically affect the international spending limits, it's pretty much cost-prohibitive from two different standpoints...unless your scouts are 100% convinced the risks are worth it and he's a once in a generation five tool player, then you have to pass because of how out-of-whack spending has gotten on the Cuban market (largely due to the success of the White Sox with "undervalue" signings of Alexei and Abreu, as well as the initial success of Puig on his $42 million dollar deal).