This is a great chart that kind of drives home the point about what a good SS is worth in MLB.

 

http://www.pinstripealley.com/2014/11/17/7...tstops-baseball

Lot of money and years and mixed results. I have to hope Sox brass and coaches think that what he did last year is repeatable. It is nice that the performance would appear to be due to mechanical changes / enhanced stuff vs. luck.

If the White Sox are spending $5 million on bench players, they will have a team record payroll.

 

Which would a be a ridiculous scenario where the Sox build their entire team through free agency. That isn't an issue. You fill gaps with it, and LHP in the bullpen is a gap that had to be filled.

 

I mean, you could turn it around for Miller and say, "If the Sox are going to be spending $10m on bullpen pieces, they will have a team record payroll," or for Martinez and say "If the Sox are going to spend $17m on a DH, they will have a team record payroll." You have to look at everything in context.

 

I don't think this is a slam dunk by any measure -- but I think it's a defensible move in the context of the market. It's at least as defensible as going for Miller. And we now know that Sox are serious about fixing the bullpen.

 

In other words, I totally get it if you don't think Duke is good, but you have to admit that this is NOT the same thing as Downs/Paulino -- they found a guy coming off an incredible season and just gave him a multi-year deal. This isn't a "scrap heap" signing. I think you can totally knock their evaluation of Duke, but the move tiself is definitely in line with the philosophy you've been arguing for lately.

No, it's not a lot of money. It's 3 years 15 million THAT IS CHUMP CHANGE. Come on, this is the new economic reality in MLB. This is 5 million less than Joe Nathan got. This is a fine signing.

 

The Sox need quality relievers. Based on his mechanical changes and results as a reliever (he's now throwing a funky sidearm and has over 11k/9 last year) it's easy to see that Duke could be a nice piece in the pen.

 

If he's not, whatever, the money is nothing. The cost of a win on the FA market is about 7 million. If he's a 1 WAR pitcher the Sox got their money's worth and then some.

Don't like it based on my simple rule of no multi year deals for middle relievers.

 

As good as he was last year, he was awful in 2013, and we know that's pretty common of middle relievers. I just don't have any confidence as to what version of Duke we will get.

FanGraphs looks at Duke

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs...ew-miller-lite/

I would like to point out this is a risky move but a good risk/reward and something a team that is looking to contend will do.

 

This is not a ra ra fanfare move but move that will hopefully help to win games.

 

I think weather you like it or not it bodes well for the upcoming weeks.

 

 

I would like to point out this is a risky move but a good risk/reward and something a team that is looking to contend will do.

 

This is not a ra ra fanfare move but move that will hopefully help to win games.

 

I think weather you like it or not it bodes well for the upcoming weeks.

 

It's not though. It's a low risk low reward move. At best, he's a solid reliever (aka 1.5 WAR), at worst, he's not even a passable reliever and he gets cut (they eat 10 million). If the downside is "eating 10 million" and the upside is "1.5 WAR reliever" it's the def of a low risk low reward move.

 

Middle case is he's a 1 WAR reliever and everyone goes home happy. Yea the 3rd year is a bit much but whatever, it's a 3rd year at 5 million.

 

This also begins their push for more org pitching depth at the high minors and AAAA level. That's just as important as whatever Duke gives them IMO. They need more non replacement level relievers seeing time and this helps.

Don't like it based on my simple rule of no multi year deals for middle relievers.

 

As good as he was last year, he was awful in 2013, and we know that's pretty common of middle relievers. I just don't have any confidence as to what version of Duke we will get.

 

He was an entirely different pitcher prior to 2014.

 

This could be like looking at Jose Bautista in 2010 and saying "he wasn't good before, I would never trade anything for him." That is how astronomical this change in talent could possibly be.

FanGraphs looks at Duke

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs...ew-miller-lite/

 

 

Everyone concerned about the Duke contract should read this.

Why was a certain former White Sox closer and his projected $3.8 million 1st year arb contract considered expensive, but Zach Duke 3 years $15 million, not much of a gamble?

 

Cause the guy on some other team is usually (always) more sexy than the guy on your current team. It's one of those baseball realities. Let's just hope Zach can pitch. Let's look at it this way. Is he potentially any better than Thornton?

Cause the guy on some other team is usually (always) more sexy than the guy on your current team. It's one of those baseball realities. Let's just hope Zach can pitch. Let's look at it this way. Is he potentially any better than Thornton?

 

Is he better than Thornton right now? Most likely, yes. Is he better than a guy who some considered to be the 2nd best reliever in the game for a period of time? Probably not quite that good.

Cause the guy on some other team is usually (always) more sexy than the guy on your current team. It's one of those baseball realities. Let's just hope Zach can pitch. Let's look at it this way. Is he potentially any better than Thornton?

Better than Thornton is today? Yes, he could be. Better than Matt at his best? No.

Not a fan of giving any reliever three + years unless there name is Mariano. I'm sure he'll be awesome his first year with us with the move to the AL. We will see about the next two. I like it right now as a need, but not a fan of the contract.

It's not though. It's a low risk low reward move. At best, he's a solid reliever (aka 1.5 WAR), at worst, he's not even a passable reliever and he gets cut (they eat 10 million). If the downside is "eating 10 million" and the upside is "1.5 WAR reliever" it's the def of a low risk low reward move.

 

Middle case is he's a 1 WAR reliever and everyone goes home happy. Yea the 3rd year is a bit much but whatever, it's a 3rd year at 5 million.

 

This also begins their push for more org pitching depth at the high minors and AAAA level. That's just as important as whatever Duke gives them IMO. They need more non replacement level relievers seeing time and this helps.

 

You do realize WAR is essentially a counting stat right? 1.5 WAR for a guy who is only going to pitch 60 innings is pretty respectable.

Fans are well within their right to criticize this signing. I like it because Duke is a better option than what the Sox currently have from the left side, the pen needs any/ all help it can get and at least Duke isn't some broken down pitcher on the mend looking for an opportunity. Could he be the next Downs? Sure, but he could also be a good back of the pen reliever as well. I'll let Duke determine that for me when he takes the mound in 2015.

You do realize WAR is essentially a counting stat right? 1.5 WAR for a guy who is only going to pitch 60 innings is pretty respectable.

 

Of course I do. But it's also a counting stat that reflects value, unlike say RBI. Most elite relievers usually come in around 1.5-2.5 WAR. The cost of a win on the FA market is roughly 7 million. If Chicago gets 1 WAR out of him in 60 innings that's great. That means he was a above average (note: not simply above replacement) level reliever, which will represent great value for the money.

 

Bullpens are assets collectively and they are liabilities collectively. Duke is a good start towards the pen as asset in '15 imo.

Fans are well within their right to criticize this signing. I like it because Duke is a better option than what the Sox currently have from the left side, the pen needs any/ all help it can get and at least Duke isn't some broken down pitcher on the mend looking for an opportunity. Could he be the next Downs? Sure, but he could also be a good back of the pen reliever as well. I'll let Duke determine that for me when he takes the mound in 2015.

 

if i have a problem, it is prob the yrs.

 

but screw that, this is a great signing. it opens up a whole realm of possibilities

and how to address some other holes.

It's not though. It's a low risk low reward move. At best, he's a solid reliever (aka 1.5 WAR), at worst, he's not even a passable reliever and he gets cut (they eat 10 million). If the downside is "eating 10 million" and the upside is "1.5 WAR reliever" it's the def of a low risk low reward move.

 

Middle case is he's a 1 WAR reliever and everyone goes home happy. Yea the 3rd year is a bit much but whatever, it's a 3rd year at 5 million.

Relief pitcher signings are low-reward because they are relief pitchers. The top relievers have wars of 1.8-2.5.

this will be a great time to go and get a Luke Hochevar.

 

edit ~~~ his upside to too good to pass.

Edited November 18, 201411 yr by LDF

if i have a problem, it is prob the yrs.

 

but screw that, this is a great signing. it opens up a whole realm of possibilities

and how to address some other holes.

I agree on the years. Would have preferred the third year as an option but let's face it, the last two years have not been pretty on the south side so its not the most attractive market to free agents if they are looking to win. VMart would be a prime example, IMO.

 

For now, I see nothing but positive things from this. The Sox have made their first move, its a move that fills a void and it thankfully gives us fans something new to discuss. I refuse to look at this in a negative light. The pen needs help and Hahn has taken a step to help that. I'm a very happy Sox fan today.

 

 

I agree on the years. Would have preferred the third year as an option but let's face it, the last two years have not been pretty on the south side so its not the most attractive market to free agents if they are looking to win. VMart would be a prime example, IMO.

 

For now, I see nothing but positive things from this. The Sox have made their first move, its a move that fills a void and it thankfully gives us fans something new to discuss. I refuse to look at this in a negative light. The pen needs help and Hahn has taken a step to help that. I'm a very happy Sox fan today.

 

this first move is great, for me the other move that will be better, the other move is

signing of an A+ pitcher or Tomas and or Yoan.

Edited November 18, 201411 yr by LDF

 

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 5m5 minutes ago

 

K. Williams: "The only message we want to send at the end of the day is when our roster is complete, that (fans) can dream again." #WhiteSox

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 5m5 minutes ago

 

K. Williams: "The only message we want to send at the end of the day is when our roster is complete, that (fans) can dream again." #WhiteSox

 

What does that mean.....?

I'd say the only exciting dream inspiring move would be a blue chip starting pitcher. Only two of those around.