White Sox sign Zach Duke, 3 years, $15 million

[LDF]

What does that mean.....?

 

for me, the road to the world series, with several WS rings and a Dynasty.

but again that is me.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

So Zach Duke is " Trading Places" from the Brewers to us. Randolph and Mortimer Duke would be proud. Obscure old movie reference brought to you by Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroyd, Don Ameche, Ralph Bellamy and Jamie Lee Curtis.

[LDF]

So Zach Duke is " Trading Places" from the Brewers to us. Randolph and Mortimer Duke would be proud. Obscure old movie reference brought to you by Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroyd, Don Ameche, Ralph Bellamy and Jamie Lee Curtis.

 

I like it. a great movie and a great place to say that.

 

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 52s52 seconds ago

Rick Hahn: "We're on to the next one now." Says they're going to address other needs, including more bullpen help. #WhiteSox

Is Rick giving us a little Foo Fighters here ?

[Balta1701]

Is Rick giving us a little Foo Fighters here ?

There's only one done.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

There's only one done.

He couldn't make it too obvious unless he wants to be known as the Headbanger GM.

[Steve9347]

A brief on Duke:

 

 

 

This was October of 2012 with the Nationals. Notice the 3/4 arm angle and how long the batter can see the ball. He gets the guy out, but with so much time to see the ball, you are going to make much better contact with the ball. Pitchers can still be successful, but they won't get strikeouts with the stuff Duke has.

 

 

This was in September for the Reds of 2013. Notice that he's dropped down and does a much better job of keeping the ball behind him. His breaking ball also has a much better sweeping motion to it. This seems to be a change he made while rehabbing or pitching in the minors of 2013. His splits after coming back up in 2013: .205/.244/.308, though the K% wasn't there yet.

 

 

This was in May of 2014. He's still coming from the side, but he's even sped up getting the ball to the plate. It comes in at 91 but with the inability to see it, it looks a lot faster than that.

 

---

 

I could see this backfiring, but I'm really OK with this move.

Why have you not found a way to become noticed for your baseball acumen? Surely there's a well trafficked site out there that would pay you.

[caulfield12]

http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/...l-is-pearl.html

 

Seems one of the keys with Duke has been ditching the 4 seam fastball and going to the sinking, 2-seamer.

 

Along with that, getting first pitch strikes to go ahead in the count.

 

Has picked up about 1 MPH with his velocity, also getting more movement. The most amazing thing is that he was striking out nearly 33% of all batters faced (in 2014), compared to his career number of only 12.7%, almost a three-fold increase. K to BB ratio went from around 2 career-wise all the way up to 4.29.

 

 

Almost 49% of his pitches are a combination of curves and sliders and he has a positive value on the two-seam, slider and curve this season. Has seen a velocity increase, but still only an 89.4 MPH heater.

 

What has really helped Duke is that 61.3% of his first pitches are strikes. Getting ahead in the count has really helped and his swinging strike rate has gone up to the highest rate of his career.

 

Sure, he is sort of a LOOGY. He has pitched 45.1 innings in 55 outings. But he has actually pitched to more right-handed batters (103) than he has lefty swingers (83). And his success rate against either is terrific. Right-handed batters have only a .581 OPS against him and lefty swingers, .552.

 

 

http://passion4baseball.blogspot.com/2014/...l-is-pearl.html

Edited November 19, 2014 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

Duke will be on the Score with Spiegel and Mannelly at 10:40AM

[RockRaines]

"I wish the Sox would just spend money"

 

 

"Why did they spend so much money!!!"

[flavum]

"I wish the Sox would just spend money"

 

 

"Why did they spend so much money!!!"

 

So everyone is supposed to have the same opinion about what the White Sox do. Got it.

[RockRaines]

So everyone is supposed to have the same opinion about what the White Sox do. Got it.

Yes and if not please leave the site.

[Bob Sacamano]

Yes and if not please leave the site.

 

Hey Rock! Do you know of any other possible Sox rumors that you can fill us in on?

[Dick Allen]

Which would a be a ridiculous scenario where the Sox build their entire team through free agency. That isn't an issue. You fill gaps with it, and LHP in the bullpen is a gap that had to be filled.

 

I mean, you could turn it around for Miller and say, "If the Sox are going to be spending $10m on bullpen pieces, they will have a team record payroll," or for Martinez and say "If the Sox are going to spend $17m on a DH, they will have a team record payroll." You have to look at everything in context.

 

I don't think this is a slam dunk by any measure -- but I think it's a defensible move in the context of the market. It's at least as defensible as going for Miller. And we now know that Sox are serious about fixing the bullpen.

 

In other words, I totally get it if you don't think Duke is good, but you have to admit that this is NOT the same thing as Downs/Paulino -- they found a guy coming off an incredible season and just gave him a multi-year deal. This isn't a "scrap heap" signing. I think you can totally knock their evaluation of Duke, but the move tiself is definitely in line with the philosophy you've been arguing for lately.

Signing a guy who has had one good season since the White Sox won the World Series and paying him for 3 years based off that one season, is NOT the philosophy I have been arguing lately.

[Eminor3rd]

Signing a guy who has had one good season since the White Sox won the World Series and paying him for 3 years based off that one season, is NOT the philosophy I have been arguing lately.

 

I'll try to elaborate on the last sentence of that post, because I know it isn't clear.

 

The philosophy you've been arguing for lately is "pay up for premium talent that you clearly need. Scrap heap/upside guys will add up to simply treading water."

 

That's exactly what the White Sox THINK they just did. You personally may think that Zach Duke is overrated, but the Sox and much of the market (as evidenced by his ultimate price tag) see him as high end talent, because he changed something and had fantastic results. So it IS consistent with the philosophy above, even though you disagree with their evaluation of Duke's talent, which is totally fair.

 

So while you may be unhappy about the move in terms of the player they got I think you should be happy about the move in terms of what it foreshadows, which is that the Sox are trying to pay up for good players that fit their needs.

[Dick Allen]

I'll try to elaborate on the last sentence of that post, because I know it isn't clear.

 

The philosophy you've been arguing for lately is "pay up for premium talent that you clearly need. Scrap heap/upside guys will add up to simply treading water."

 

That's exactly what the White Sox THINK they just did. You personally may think that Zach Duke is overrated, but the Sox and much of the market (as evidenced by his ultimate price tag) see him as high end talent, because he changed something and had fantastic results. So it IS consistent with the philosophy above, even though you disagree with their evaluation of Duke's talent, which is totally fair.

 

So while you may be unhappy about the move in terms of the player they got I think you should be happy about the move in terms of what it foreshadows, which is that the Sox are trying to pay up for good players that fit their needs.

And I will elaborate, I believe Zach Duke is not premium talent. He is a journeyman at best player who switched some things up and had a freakishly good season, a season which even you would probably admit was highly unlikely and even more unlikely to repeat.

 

Everyone is looking for LH relief pitching. If it was reasonably thought throughout the league that he could sustain his 2014 performance, he would have been paid more than $15 million. Hopefully, they can get at least a good couple months out of him before the clock strikes midnight.

 

Steamer projects Dayan Viciedo to be twice as valuable as Zach Duke in 2015. I think there would be outrage if the Sox gave Viciedo Duke's contract.

Edited November 19, 2014 by Dick Allen

[Chisoxfn]

And I will elaborate, I believe Zach Duke is not premium talent. He is a journeyman at best player who switched some things up and had a freakishly good season, a season which even you would probably admit was highly unlikely and even more unlikely to repeat.

 

Everyone is looking for LH relief pitching. If it was reasonably thought throughout the league that he could sustain his 2014 performance, he would have been paid more than $15 million. Hopefully, they can get at least a good couple months out of him before the clock strikes midnight.

I can buy into a lot of this. When you look at his stuff, it is hard to be overwhelmed with joy. All that said, this organization has had a strong history at being able to scout and evaluate pitchers better then most, so just because others didn't give him more, doesn't necessarily mean anything. Part of this really comes down to, is what he did last year sustainable long-term and was that really what drove it, or was he really more lucky and it is being masked by the coincidence that he changed arm angles.

 

Sox payment would indicate they think this will carryforward. If he doesn't, while not crippling, it will still turn into a misuse of funds. I just know one thing, I think we need to sign a closer so I hope we get one cause Duke alone, along with internal people, doesn't provide us with a bullpen that will help us contend.

[Eminor3rd]

And I will elaborate, I believe Zach Duke is not premium talent. He is a journeyman at best player who switched some things up and had a freakishly good season, a season which even you would probably admit was highly unlikely and even more unlikely to repeat.

 

Everyone is looking for LH relief pitching. If it was reasonably thought throughout the league that he could sustain his 2014 performance, he would have been paid more than $15 million. Hopefully, they can get at least a good couple months out of him before the clock strikes midnight.

 

Steamer projects Dayan Viciedo to be twice as valuable as Zach Duke in 2015. I think there would be outrage if the Sox gave Viciedo Duke's contract.

 

Yeah, I get that. I get that you don't think he's for real. You may be right. I mean, I probably only think it's 60/40 that his changes are for real.

 

I'm just saying that it is incorrect to compare this signing to the Paulino/Downs signings, because the Sox think he IS for real. So hopefully they're right about that.

[Dick Allen]

Yeah, I get that. I get that you don't think he's for real. You may be right. I mean, I probably only think it's 60/40 that his changes are for real.

 

I'm just saying that it is incorrect to compare this signing to the Paulino/Downs signings, because the Sox think he IS for real. So hopefully they're right about that.

I compared it to Keppinger. The Keppinger, Teahen and now Duke families should get down on their knees every night and Thank God for the White Sox.or

Edited November 19, 2014 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

Yeah, I get that. I get that you don't think he's for real. You may be right. I mean, I probably only think it's 60/40 that his changes are for real.

 

I'm just saying that it is incorrect to compare this signing to the Paulino/Downs signings, because the Sox think he IS for real. So hopefully they're right about that.

 

 

Downs had a VERY consistent track record for nearly a decade. It's just that his expiration date had already passed...

 

But I would say Downs is closer in spirit to Keppinger/Teahen than the likes of Ohman or Paulino, who had multiple injuries and a nearly completely inability to stay healthy.

 

Paulino five years ago might have gotten away with throwing in the mid 90's and having limited movement and offspeed stuff...but that's just an average fastball these days when you consider hitters usually see 3-4 guys out of every big league pen throwing that velocity and starters like Yordano Ventura routinely hitting 100.

Edited November 19, 2014 by caulfield12

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Don't think anyone has looked at his splits yet to compare his 1st and 2nd half of 2014. If you think the league may have caught up to the changes then you may have a point.

 

1st Half 38 IP 29 hits 1.18 ERA 0.947 WHIP 7BB 0 WP

2nd Half 20.2 IP 20Hits 4.79 ERA 1.452 WHIP 10BB 3WP

Edited November 20, 2014 by CaliSoxFanViaSWside

[nickofypres]

Well that is no good.

[Heads22]

We want our bullpen to be upgraded, but we don't want to spend money to do it. Sweet. I'm not sure how people want Rick to address our pen issues.

[caulfield12]

We want our bullpen to be upgraded, but we don't want to spend money to do it. Sweet. I'm not sure how people want Rick to address our pen issues.

 

 

The 2012 method of throwing about 11-12 rookies at the problem worked better than what they've attempted since then.

 

When you do have a pitcher working with an 88-91 MPH fastball (see Danks), we all know how slim the margin for error is...you can't get away with the same mistakes a Herrera or Wade Davis does. Their foul tics are long homers at lesser velocities.

Edited November 20, 2014 by caulfield12

[chitownsportsfan]

Don't think anyone has looked at his splits yet to compare his 1st and 2nd half of 2014. If you think the league may have caught up to the changes then you may have a point.

 

1st Half 38 IP 29 hits 1.18 ERA 0.947 WHIP 7BB 0 WP

2nd Half 20.2 IP 20Hits 4.79 ERA 1.452 WHIP 10BB 3WP

 

Hey fun with selective endpoints! His 2nd half xFIP was 2.76 his 1st half was 1.72. He was pretty damn good in both.

 

The big difference? His strand rate went from 90.5 in the 1st and to 59.5 in the 2nd half, that and he walked a few more guys. He had a very good year overall, splitting it up is fairly useless for such a small sample already. He only pitched 20.2 after the ASB.

 

It's a fine signing I have no idea how anyone could be against it. They have money to spend and the pen was awful. This move hardly breaks the bank for additional signings.