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Well, it's that time of year again....2015 edition


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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 12:54 PM)
You know you want that #1 pick! You can't resist!

I don't! I can!

 

I'd rather see some guys play well, see the team finish with 78 or 79 wins, and have some hope for how we project next year. If Melky and Eaton wrapped up with quality seasons, that'd be better for the health of the franchise than a top pick.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 01:36 PM)
I don't! I can!

 

I'd rather see some guys play well, see the team finish with 78 or 79 wins, and have some hope for how we project next year. If Melky and Eaton wrapped up with quality seasons, that'd be better for the health of the franchise than a top pick.

 

#TANKLOSS

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 01:36 PM)
I don't! I can!

 

I'd rather see some guys play well, see the team finish with 78 or 79 wins, and have some hope for how we project next year. If Melky and Eaton wrapped up with quality seasons, that'd be better for the health of the franchise than a top pick.

 

Those aren't mutually exclusive things...

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I think the Sox are going to sell at the deadline and that could bring them prospects back but the team could realistically get the third pick in the draft, which would be huge as it bestow the team with the third highest spending pools in both the draft (Bonus pool should be close to $10M) and international market (Bonus pool should be around $4.5M).

 

Of course teams could always trade for more pool space and draft picks, they could offer Shark an QO and get the comp pick. The comp pick that Atlanta got in exchange for Ervin Santana, 28th overall pick had a value of $1,974,700. By making a series of trades the Braves were able to acumulate a bonus pool of over $10M which was the fourth biggest after initially having the 14th largest pool. So even if the team didn't meet your expectations, there is a silver lining and in this case, this silver lining could do wonders to the organization's foundation going forward.

Edited by Joshua Strong
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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 25, 2015 -> 01:36 PM)
I don't! I can!

 

I'd rather see some guys play well, see the team finish with 78 or 79 wins, and have some hope for how we project next year. If Melky and Eaton wrapped up with quality seasons, that'd be better for the health of the franchise than a top pick.

 

If you're not going to make the playoffs, might as well aim for the highest pick possible. One of the worst positions that a franchise could operate in professional sports is the middle, you're missing out on the high end talent and you're not competing for a championship. So again, if you’re not going to the playoffs get the highest pick possible.

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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 01:54 AM)
If you're not going to make the playoffs, might as well aim for the highest pick possible. One of the worst positions that a franchise could operate in professional sports is the middle, you're missing out on the high end talent and you're not competing for a championship. So again, if you’re not going to the playoffs get the highest pick possible.

 

And, you're also having little to no impact on attendance revenue over the remainder of the season.

 

It might impact season ticket sales for next year (more), but not enough to offset the difference in talent between a top 3-6 talent and one in the 12-15 category.

 

If we picked 4th and 9th in the last two drafts, we wouldn't have been able to select Rodon and Fulmer, arguably.

 

 

This article describing the current plight of Tigers' fans describes it almost perfectly...especially paragraphs 3 & 4.

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tige...ecord/29310315/

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 02:44 AM)
I think the Sox are going to sell at the deadline and that could bring them prospects back but the team could realistically get the third pick in the draft, which would be huge as it bestow the team with the third highest spending pools in both the draft (Bonus pool should be close to $10M) and international market (Bonus pool should be around $4.5M).

 

Of course teams could always trade for more pool space and draft picks, they could offer Shark an QO and get the comp pick. The comp pick that Atlanta got in exchange for Ervin Santana, 28th overall pick had a value of $1,974,700. By making a series of trades the Braves were able to acumulate a bonus pool of over $10M which was the fourth biggest after initially having the 14tg largest pool. So even if the team didn't make your expectations, there is a sikver lining and in this case, this silver slining could do wonders to the organization's foundation going forward.

 

 

Opinions like these actually make this thread one of the better ones annually in my opinion. Many people have a problem with the idea of rooting for losses and I completely understand. It makes you conflicted as a fan. This post sums it up nicely though. It would be very beneficial. Good stuff, Joshua.

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QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 06:19 AM)
Opinions like these actually make this thread one of the better ones annually in my opinion. Many people have a problem with the idea of rooting for losses and I completely understand. It makes you conflicted as a fan. This post sums it up nicely though. It would be very beneficial. Good stuff, Joshua.

 

 

Doubt anyone expected The Braves to be even close to .500 after losing Heyward, Gattis, Upton and Santana....Shelby Miller is really looking good so far in ATL.

 

Plus, they have the new stadium to look forward to.

Edited by caulfield12
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Oakland is playing themselves back into the race. Another seller potentially off the table. The only sellers in the AL right now could be us and the Red Sox. Then in the NL there's the Brewers, Phillies, and maybe the Rockies? Who else will throw in the towel?

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With Cueto's vale taking a hit due to injury concerns, that should help Samardzija...

 

10. Jeff Samardzija. The results haven’t been there for Samardzija, who sports a 4.53 ERA and has allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings. This month alone, he’s allowed 10+ hits in three different starts. But you have to wonder if Chicago’s defense has something to do with his .338 batting average on balls in play, and maybe he’d be a 3.50 ERA workhorse on a different team. A trade seems inevitable, giving Samardzija a chance at a midseason do-over.

 

 

As far as free agent fixes, if Heyward's really going to get $175-200 million and Alex Gordon $90-115 million, they have to try to bring in Wieters and add Gallardo, AJ Burnett or Scott Kazmir to replace Samardzija.

 

Then replace 3b and SS via trade...just doesn't seem possible to do it all without trading Quintana.

 

That would leave Sale, a free agent pitcher, Rodon and Danks/E.Johnson/Montas/Fulmer as the rotation...screw it, they need offense AND defense, and they're only 13th out of 15th in AL ERA as it is. Of course, with our defense factored in, they could easily be 9th-11th.

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QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 12:07 AM)
Those aren't mutually exclusive things...

They were only examples, but in general they kind of are. To get a top pick, everyone has to suck. There'd be no reason to believe at the end of the season that Melky can still be a contributing major leaguer, or that Eaton can get his act together. There'd be no reason to believe the Sox would be anything but crazy to take that $10M 2016 option on Alexei that once looked so good, or that Avisail Garcia will ever be average.

 

Again - just examples. And I'm in no way commenting on the likelihood of any of this. Ignore the logistics of each player getting to where they need to be because that's not my point. What I'm saying is that I'd rather look at the Sox in October and see 4 or 5 holes instead of 7 or 8, because you aren't filling those extra holes with one top 3 pick. Seems pretty simple to me.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 02:54 AM)
If you're not going to make the playoffs, might as well aim for the highest pick possible. One of the worst positions that a franchise could operate in professional sports is the middle, you're missing out on the high end talent and you're not competing for a championship. So again, if you’re not going to the playoffs get the highest pick possible.

That argument doesn't work in baseball. This isn't the NBA where one dominant player can instantly turn your team around. "Missing out on the high end talent" is not nearly as penalizing in baseball, where impact players come later in the draft more often. The top 5 hitters by WAR this year were drafted 1, 25, 34, 63, and 246 overall in their drafts. The top 5 pitchers were taken at 11, 13, 18, 134, and 161. If you look at the top guys over the last five years total you tend to see more slant towards the very top of the draft, but at the risk of repeating myself, impact players are picked later with regularity.

 

Here's a pretty solid example that I think is fair to both sides of the argument. David Price was chosen 1st overall in 2007. Madison Bumgarner was taken 10th. Neither has become a free agent yet, and Price has earned 28.8 WAR compared to Bumgarner's 20.0. I would rather be able to comfortably project 1 extra WAR from 3 different positions for the next two years than have the 2015 team conclude as an epic failure and get the extra 9 WAR over about 7 seasons. You might obviously differ, and you're necessarily wrong for that, but the tiebreaker for me is that I just don't wanna watch my team lose right now any more than I have to.

 

And I do see those outcomes as mutually exclusive. There's a correlation between Melky's (again, just for example's sake) final 2015 WAR and what you can reasonably expect from him for the remainder of his contract.

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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 09:02 AM)
They were only examples, but in general they kind of are. To get a top pick, everyone has to suck. There'd be no reason to believe at the end of the season that Melky can still be a contributing major leaguer, or that Eaton can get his act together. There'd be no reason to believe the Sox would be anything but crazy to take that $10M 2016 option on Alexei that once looked so good, or that Avisail Garcia will ever be average.

 

Again - just examples. And I'm in no way commenting on the likelihood of any of this. Ignore the logistics of each player getting to where they need to be because that's not my point. What I'm saying is that I'd rather look at the Sox in October and see 4 or 5 holes instead of 7 or 8, because you aren't filling those extra holes with one top 3 pick. Seems pretty simple to me.

 

That argument doesn't work in baseball. This isn't the NBA where one dominant player can instantly turn your team around. "Missing out on the high end talent" is not nearly as penalizing in baseball, where impact players come later in the draft more often. The top 5 hitters by WAR this year were drafted 1, 25, 34, 63, and 246 overall in their drafts. The top 5 pitchers were taken at 11, 13, 18, 134, and 161. If you look at the top guys over the last five years total you tend to see more slant towards the very top of the draft, but at the risk of repeating myself, impact players are picked later with regularity.

 

Would you rather have a bonus for $15M (Top 3 worst records) or $7M (Team with .500 record but not good enough to make the playoffs) for July 2nd and the draft combined.

 

Of course this isnt the NBA or NFL, where you draft a guy and you're immediately able to see that player with the pro team, but I think the argument applies because teams with worst records, that have more money to spend are able to bring in more talent into their system, look at the Astros were able to do in the draft. Yeah they wont see Bregman, Tucker and Cameron this year but you cant deny that they added some serious talent into their system.

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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 10:19 AM)
Would you rather have a bonus for $15M (Top 3 worst records) or $7M (Team with .500 record but not good enough to make the playoffs) for July 2nd and the draft combined.

 

Of course this isnt the NBA or NFL, where you draft a guy and you're immediately able to see that player with the pro team, but I think the argument applies because teams with worst records, that have more money to spend are able to bring in more talent into their system, look at the Astros were able to do in the draft. Yeah they wont see Bregman, Tucker and Cameron this year but you cant deny that they added some serious talent into their system.

I know how the bonus pools work and I'd still rather have the .500 team. It doesn't have as much work to do to get good and it didn't suck as much to watch. I think I made that my position pretty clearly.

Edited by shysocks
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QUOTE (shysocks @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 10:50 AM)
I know how the bonus pools work and I'd still rather have the .500 team. It doesn't have as much work to do to get good and it didn't suck as much to watch. I think I made that my position pretty clearly.

 

That depends on a lot of things, what does the .500 team's long term prospects look like, how do they stack up against the other teams in the division in terms of talent, etc.

 

Although I think that's a terrible way to do things, agree to disagree

Edited by Joshua Strong
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 05:31 PM)
Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 4m4 minutes ago

Robin Ventura: "Where I’m at and the people I work with, if they didn’t have faith in me I’d already be gone." #WhiteSox

Yes this does help us improve our draft pick.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 04:31 PM)
Dan Hayes ‏@CSNHayes 4m4 minutes ago

Robin Ventura: "Where I’m at and the people I work with, if they didn’t have faith in me I’d already be gone." #WhiteSox

Faith and loyalty - the White Sox way!

 

Meanwhile, over in Philly, Ryne Sandberg has resigned as manager there due in large part to his team's dismal results. But it's also because many of those who might have similar faith in him and therefore might help him save his job, will be unemployed themselves as major front office moves are expected soon.

 

Good, 'ol fashioned, results-oriented accountability, seemingly alive and well in the City of Brotherly Love. And on the South Side, the Jerry Reinsdorf legendary loyalty reward program soldiers on. Wonder which team will return to postseason play sooner - the White Sox or Phillies!

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QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 12:54 AM)
If you're not going to make the playoffs, might as well aim for the highest pick possible. One of the worst positions that a franchise could operate in professional sports is the middle, you're missing out on the high end talent and you're not competing for a championship. So again, if you’re not going to the playoffs get the highest pick possible.

In other sports I'd say yes, in baseball, I disagree. The best organizations consistently win and find talent (both through FA and the Draft) and top draft position has the lowest correlation in baseball then any other sport. This isn't like the NBA where most of the superstars were top picks vs. MLB where lots of superstars aren't top picks. That said, if we are going to be bad and developing, I am okay getting top pick as long our young talent is improving, etc. I am not okay with guys just playing bad. It is more important for pieces to make progress and help us get wins and slowly get better. Baseball is not the sport you go from worst to first very often. Usually it takes time to build and get the pieces put together and ready.

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QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jun 26, 2015 -> 04:13 PM)
Faith and loyalty - the White Sox way!

 

Meanwhile, over in Philly, Ryne Sandberg has resigned as manager there due in large part to his team's dismal results. But it's also because many of those who might have similar faith in him and therefore might help him save his job, will be unemployed themselves as major front office moves are expected soon.

 

Good, 'ol fashioned, results-oriented accountability, seemingly alive and well in the City of Brotherly Love. And on the South Side, the Jerry Reinsdorf legendary loyalty reward program soldiers on. Wonder which team will return to postseason play sooner - the White Sox or Phillies!

 

Andy MacPhail is joining the front office there, right?

 

Writing on the wall wirh Amaro, Jr. As far as Sandberg goes, the final straw was probably miscommunication over Utley's health and the fact they're scared to death he will get enough plate appearances for his $15 million option to kick in for next year.

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