April 22, 20169 yr What is really interesting is how divergent these two projections are. Fangraphs has the White Sox at 35.1%. BP has the White Sox at 52.7%. Both systems really like the Indians though. Despite being 6-7 and in 4th place, BP has them at 70.1%, and FG has them at 60.5%. The computers hate the Royals. Despite being 10-5, FG has them with a 29.3% chance at the playoffs, and BP has 20.8%. http://www.fangraphs.com/coolgraphs.aspx?l...f&year=2016 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
April 22, 20169 yr Maybe I shouldn't do this, but in my head I've just swapped the Indians and Royals playoff odds.
April 22, 20169 yr QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 04:52 PM) If I'm not mistaken, don't the computers always hate The Royals? Use Vegas odds. They make sure they work out.............................
April 22, 20169 yr The Royals don't really look impressive on paper, aside from a few guys. Projections have flaws built into them that seem to drastically underrate the ability to not strike out. Not striking out seems to build cluster luck, which leads to the Royals winning 90 games.
April 23, 20169 yr QUOTE (daggins @ Apr 22, 2016 -> 04:58 PM) The Royals don't really look impressive on paper, aside from a few guys. Projections have flaws built into them that seem to drastically underrate the ability to not strike out. Not striking out seems to build cluster luck, which leads to the Royals winning 90 games. The problem is the Royals aren't the only team that doesn't strike out. The Braves were 2nd to the Royals last year in fewest number of strikeouts but had well below average cluster luck and scored the least amount of runs in baseball.
April 24, 20169 yr Author Sox now by themselves in first place see their Fangraphs odds at 42.7%, which is their highest of the season so far there. At BP they are 61.5%.
April 25, 20169 yr Author FG is at a season high 45.7%. Cleveland still leads the way at 66.6%, KC 3rd at 33.5%. BP has us at 64.5% Cleveland also leads the way here at 78.5%, and KC is a far 3rd at 21.5%
April 25, 20169 yr Why does everyone think Cleveland is so good? They're a mediocre team anyway, but they're done if Carrasco is out for any lengthy period of time.
April 25, 20169 yr Author QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Apr 25, 2016 -> 09:42 AM) If the White Sox go 72-71 from here on out, they will finish 85-77. Which is exactly 1 game behind what got the 2nd wild card last year.
April 25, 20169 yr I put zero stock in those. Not to be all Hawk about stats, but playoff percentage means nothing to me. I'll do it by the eye test. Right now if I had to revise my pre-season prediction: Royals 92 Wins Tigers 86 Wins Sox 86 Wins Indians 83 Wins Twins 72 Wins Sox until they can get a bat I cannot take seriously. Pitching wont always be this good. Bats wont always be this bad. However counting on Ajax, Garcia, Sands, Saladino, Rollins, Avila to win us games consistently doesn't work in my mind. Get one more bat and I'm a sold believer. Doesn't even have to be an OF. Just a bat. I think it should be possible.
April 25, 20169 yr QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Apr 25, 2016 -> 10:53 AM) I put zero stock in those. Not to be all Hawk about stats, but playoff percentage means nothing to me. I'll do it by the eye test. Right now if I had to revise my pre-season prediction: Royals 92 Wins Tigers 86 Wins Sox 86 Wins Indians 83 Wins Twins 72 Wins Sox until they can get a bat I cannot take seriously. Pitching wont always be this good. Bats wont always be this bad. However counting on Ajax, Garcia, Sands, Saladino, Rollins, Avila to win us games consistently doesn't work in my mind. Get one more bat and I'm a sold believer. Doesn't even have to be an OF. Just a bat. I think it should be possible. Yeah, they're just for fun, especially because they can't predict which teams will be buyers and sellers in July. There's just no way to know. I guessed 83 wins before the season. If I'm completely unconvinced by anything that has happened so far and thought they were still the same 83-win team - just with a 13-6 start - that'd put my new guess at 86. And I'm unconvinced by most of what's taken place. The major exceptions are Sale and Quintana. I feel like Sale is going to be the best pitcher in the AL by far this year, and Quintana will have his best season as well. Part of this is that they finally have a competent defense behind them - the third major exception. The hunch I have about that stuff bumps my guess up to 88 wins for the Sox.
April 25, 20169 yr BP's playoff odds are heavily biased towards good defensive teams. Cleveland, Tampa and Boston are all off to mediocre starts but BP projects them to be 3 of the 4 best teams in the AL the rest of the season mostly due to FRAA numbers > 30. I just don't think defense alone can pull you out of mediocrity.
April 25, 20169 yr Nate Silver just posted his most recent projections: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/
April 25, 20169 yr Author QUOTE (Dunt @ Apr 25, 2016 -> 03:46 PM) Nate Silver just posted his most recent projections: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-mlb-predictions/ Sox are 49%, Indians at 50%, Royals at 47%.
April 27, 20169 yr 63% on FiveThirtyEight, best in the AL. Projections still love the Indians and their young rotation/Lindor, though.
April 27, 20169 yr QUOTE (Kalapse @ Apr 27, 2016 -> 12:12 AM) 63% on FiveThirtyEight, best in the AL. Projections still love the Indians and their young rotation/Lindor, though. Sox have already done a helluva job "banking" extra wins against the projections. Play 1 game over from here on out and you've got yourself 86 wins. That probably has 50% of odds of being enough, and the playoff odds reflect that. What a start!
April 27, 20169 yr Sox have increased their playoff odds by 28.1% on Fangraphs since April 3rd Edited April 27, 20169 yr by Dunt
April 27, 20169 yr Author QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 26, 2016 -> 11:16 PM) Sox have already done a helluva job "banking" extra wins against the projections. Play 1 game over from here on out and you've got yourself 86 wins. That probably has 50% of odds of being enough, and the playoff odds reflect that. What a start! Just as a note, 86 wins was the total for the second wild card last year in the AL.
April 27, 20169 yr Author Baseball Prospectus odds have us at 73.1%, finally passing the Indians who sit at 69.6%. Detroit is a distant third at 17.8%, Royals 4th at 16.7%
April 27, 20169 yr Author QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Apr 26, 2016 -> 10:40 PM) 54.0% Indians still lead in the Fangraphs work at 62.5%
April 27, 20169 yr Playoff odds at fangraphs featured in this piece. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...rt-they-needed/
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