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Price rising for Sale and Q

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Watching the underwhelming starting pitching from Texas and Boston and thinking the WSox just HAVE to exploit this in the off season. What say you, WSox nation - do you even trust that we would get a sufficient return???

 

Other than Rodon, Fulmer and the young pitching all can go if the price is right: Abreu, Eaton, - anything with a chance to return back better than what you give up. Time to start over.

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QUOTE (bruni @ Oct 9, 2016 -> 07:40 PM)
Watching the underwhelming starting pitching from Texas and Boston and thinking the WSox just HAVE to exploit this in the off season. What say you, WSox nation - do you even trust that we would get a sufficient return???

 

Other than Rodon, Fulmer and the young pitching all can go if the price is right: Abreu, Eaton, - anything with a chance to return back better than what you give up. Time to start over.

 

I think we can deal Quintana to Texas for Mazara + prospects.

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QUOTE (WhiteSoxfan1986 @ Oct 9, 2016 -> 09:58 PM)
Houston is also a good spot for them.

 

They are the team to watch IMO. Unless Boston decides to nut up. They already have many studs in place, bullpen is pretty nasty, just need that ace.

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QUOTE (dpd9189 @ Oct 9, 2016 -> 10:14 PM)
There will be many suitors for both guys, Sox should be able to get a nice haul for each guy.

 

Unless of course the Sox "go for it" again and at this point I'd be very surprised if they didn't. JR is not willing to wait five years during a rebuild and last I looked he still owns the team.

 

Mark

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QUOTE (bruni @ Oct 9, 2016 -> 08:40 PM)
Watching the underwhelming starting pitching from Texas and Boston and thinking the WSox just HAVE to exploit this in the off season. What say you, WSox nation - do you even trust that we would get a sufficient return???

 

Other than Rodon, Fulmer and the young pitching all can go if the price is right: Abreu, Eaton, - anything with a chance to return back better than what you give up. Time to start over.

No

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QUOTE (Dunt @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:24 AM)
They are the team to watch IMO. Unless Boston decides to nut up. They already have many studs in place, bullpen is pretty nasty, just need that ace.

 

Boston's bullpen had numerous issues during the 2nd half. But their starting pitching was outstanding during the same stretch. Kimbrel has had control issues down the stretch.

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Every team could use Sale. To pin one start or so as the reason they would "need" him at virtuously any cost I just don't think is going to happen. Porcello and Price were awful. Hamels was awful. It does happen. To me the real question with Boston is Porcello really a top of the rotation guy, or did he just have everything go right for a career year? It is possible if Sale started for these teams in the postseason, everything still would have gone bad. He wasn't exactly lights out against Minnesota the last game of the year.

 

It will be interesting to see if any team is willing to pay the White Sox price, and at what level the White Sox are willing to go to get a deal done. I still think most of these proposals are overstated. I know Shelby Miller cost a huge price, and Sale is a lot better and will cost a huge price. But everyone knew the Miller price was ridiculous, and it not working out for Arizona doesn't help the White Sox cause here. Whether it is correct or not, similar things effect each other. If Abreu sucked, the Cuban players behind him would have received a lot less money. If Kaz Matsui was as good as advertised, Iguchi would never have been available to the White Sox at a bargain rate.

 

Trading Sale with his contract situation is pretty close to unprecedented. It's one reason why I think there is a cap on what teams would be willing to give up, and while the package would be huge, not as huge as using previous trades and adding Sale's increased value would make it.

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QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 07:57 AM)
Boston's bullpen had numerous issues during the 2nd half. But their starting pitching was outstanding during the same stretch. Kimbrel has had control issues down the stretch.

 

Was talking about Houston FWIW

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 08:12 AM)
Every team could use Sale. To pin one start or so as the reason they would "need" him at virtuously any cost I just don't think is going to happen. Porcello and Price were awful. Hamels was awful. It does happen. To me the real question with Boston is Porcello really a top of the rotation guy, or did he just have everything go right for a career year? It is possible if Sale started for these teams in the postseason, everything still would have gone bad. He wasn't exactly lights out against Minnesota the last game of the year.

 

It will be interesting to see if any team is willing to pay the White Sox price, and at what level the White Sox are willing to go to get a deal done. I still think most of these proposals are overstated. I know Shelby Miller cost a huge price, and Sale is a lot better and will cost a huge price. But everyone knew the Miller price was ridiculous, and it not working out for Arizona doesn't help the White Sox cause here. Whether it is correct or not, similar things effect each other. If Abreu sucked, the Cuban players behind him would have received a lot less money. If Kaz Matsui was as good as advertised, Iguchi would never have been available to the White Sox at a bargain rate.

 

Trading Sale with his contract situation is pretty close to unprecedented. It's one reason why I think there is a cap on what teams would be willing to give up, and while the package would be huge, not as huge as using previous trades and adding Sale's increased value would make it.

 

I fully believe the front office wants to rebuild, but I also believe the players they want are actually worth more than the players they want to trade away. It's not obvious to me how willing they would be to make a deal in that scenario. My guess is that they do what they did last season and just sort of hope that the team overperforms.

 

 

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 08:12 AM)
Every team could use Sale. To pin one start or so as the reason they would "need" him at virtuously any cost I just don't think is going to happen. Porcello and Price were awful. Hamels was awful. It does happen. To me the real question with Boston is Porcello really a top of the rotation guy, or did he just have everything go right for a career year? It is possible if Sale started for these teams in the postseason, everything still would have gone bad. He wasn't exactly lights out against Minnesota the last game of the year.

 

It will be interesting to see if any team is willing to pay the White Sox price, and at what level the White Sox are willing to go to get a deal done. I still think most of these proposals are overstated. I know Shelby Miller cost a huge price, and Sale is a lot better and will cost a huge price. But everyone knew the Miller price was ridiculous, and it not working out for Arizona doesn't help the White Sox cause here. Whether it is correct or not, similar things effect each other. If Abreu sucked, the Cuban players behind him would have received a lot less money. If Kaz Matsui was as good as advertised, Iguchi would never have been available to the White Sox at a bargain rate.

 

Trading Sale with his contract situation is pretty close to unprecedented. It's one reason why I think there is a cap on what teams would be willing to give up, and while the package would be huge, not as huge as using previous trades and adding Sale's increased value would make it.

 

The Sox do hold the cards here. I don't think they're taking anything less than an overpay, and they shouldn't.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 09:50 AM)
The Sox do hold the cards here. I don't think they're taking anything less than an overpay, and they shouldn't.

 

This post should just be copy and pasted the entire winter.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 09:50 AM)
The Sox do hold the cards here. I don't think they're taking anything less than an overpay, and they shouldn't.

 

Yeah, with the organization in such a strong position, the Sox really have the upper hand here.

 

 

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QUOTE (gatnom @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 10:40 AM)
Yeah, with the organization in such a strong position, the Sox really have the upper hand here.

 

Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but let me break it down if it is.

 

The Sox hold a top 3 pitcher in all of the game for 3 years @ $38M (last 2 are team options which increases value in case of injury). If Chris Sale were a free agent this winter, he'd likely sign a 7 or 8 year deal worth with an AAV north of $30M. Think about that.

 

The Sox also hold a top 30 pitcher in the game (I tend to think he is better than that, but going conservative) for the next 4 years at $37.85M (last 2 are again team options). If Jose Quintana were a free agent this winter, he'd likely sign at least a 5 year deal worth no less than $100M (AAV of $20M), which again, is probably conservative. Think about that.

 

The best free agent SP this winter are, in no particular order: Andrew Casher, Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, Colby Lewis, Ivan Nova, and Edinson Volquez. The next tier is Brett Anderson, Bartolo Colon, RA Dicky, Doug Fister, Jake Peavy and Jered Weaver. Those are the top arms available, and the best one is maybe a #3 starter. These dudes are about to get PAID. Think about that.

 

The Sox are in an absolutely wonderful position. Yes, it probably makes sense to trade these guys and start this rebuild. But they don't HAVE TO trade them. The Sox can sit back and ask for the moon, and they should. If you don't get what you want, you keep these guys who aren't breaking the bank and who's values are not going to diminish. Maybe no one will pay what it takes to get a Chris Sale - I mean when has a legitimate ace signed for 3 years at a 1/3 of what he'd get on the open market on an AAV-basis ever been traded? Its never happened. If you have to hold on to Sale for another year because the offers aren't what you want, you do that.

 

That is without even mentioning their other extremely valuable assets in Adam Eaton and Carlos Rodon. The Sox are in a very unique position. I understand why some don't have faith that this front office has what it takes to execute this correctly. But this is the same front office that has given us each and every one of these assets. The fact that Sale and Quintana weren't traded last July when the market seemed primed was in all liklihood because they are asking for the moon. Be patient - the Sox absolutely NEED to hit home runs with these trades. The time will come, and hopefully when it does, it is because the Sox finally got what they are asking for, and not because they settled.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 11:03 AM)
Not sure if this is sarcasm or not, but let me break it down if it is.

 

The Sox hold a top 3 pitcher in all of the game for 3 years @ $38M (last 2 are team options which increases value in case of injury). If Chris Sale were a free agent this winter, he'd likely sign a 7 or 8 year deal worth with an AAV north of $30M. Think about that.

 

The Sox also hold a top 30 pitcher in the game (I tend to think he is better than that, but going conservative) for the next 4 years at $37.85M (last 2 are again team options). If Jose Quintana were a free agent this winter, he'd likely sign at least a 5 year deal worth no less than $100M (AAV of $20M), which again, is probably conservative. Think about that.

 

The best free agent SP this winter are, in no particular order: Andrew Casher, Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, Colby Lewis, Ivan Nova, and Edinson Volquez. The next tier is Brett Anderson, Bartolo Colon, RA Dicky, Doug Fister, Jake Peavy and Jered Weaver. Those are the top arms available, and the best one is maybe a #3 starter. These dudes are about to get PAID. Think about that.

 

The Sox are in an absolutely wonderful position. Yes, it probably makes sense to trade these guys and start this rebuild. But they don't HAVE TO trade them. The Sox can sit back and ask for the moon, and they should. If you don't get what you want, you keep these guys who aren't breaking the bank and who's values are not going to diminish. Maybe no one will pay what it takes to get a Chris Sale - I mean when has a legitimate ace signed for 3 years at a 1/3 of what he'd get on the open market on an AAV-basis ever been traded? Its never happened. If you have to hold on to Sale for another year because the offers aren't what you want, you do that.

 

That is without even mentioning their other extremely valuable assets in Adam Eaton and Carlos Rodon. The Sox are in a very unique position. I understand why some don't have faith that this front office has what it takes to execute this correctly. But this is the same front office that has given us each and every one of these assets. The fact that Sale and Quintana weren't traded last July when the market seemed primed was in all liklihood because they are asking for the moon. Be patient - the Sox absolutely NEED to hit home runs with these trades. The time will come, and hopefully when it does, it is because the Sox finally got what they are asking for, and not because they settled.

 

The market appears good this offseason, but it also appeared good at the deadline. They weren't able to get what they were asking for then, and if they keep asking for the same players that they wanted then, I don't think they'll be able to get what they're asking for now.

 

The Sox have had both of these players in their starting rotation since 2012, and have 0 playoff appearances to show for it. Maybe holding onto their assets will eventually result in a playoff appearance, but I'm not exactly holding my breath on it. Ultimately, as long as the Sox don't give up a bunch of draft picks this offseason, I'll be ok with whatever they do. I just don't consider them to be holding anything resembling an upper hand.

 

 

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QUOTE (gatnom @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 11:21 AM)
The market appears good this offseason, but it also appeared good at the deadline. They weren't able to get what they were asking for then, and if they keep asking for the same players that they wanted then, I don't think they'll be able to get what they're asking for now.

 

The Sox have had both of these players in their starting rotation since 2012, and have 0 playoff appearances to show for it. Maybe holding onto their assets will eventually result in a playoff appearance, but I'm not exactly holding my breath on it. Ultimately, as long as the Sox don't give up a bunch of draft picks this offseason, I'll be ok with whatever they do. I just don't consider them to be holding anything resembling an upper hand.

 

Teams generally aren't going to trade meaningful pieces off the ML roster during a playoff hunt. Boston, for example, was probably unwilling to trade JBJ. I am sure the Sox want Betts (who wouldn't?), but that ship has sailed. Not to mention that teams not in contention probably aren't going to be interested at that point in time.

 

I am not advocating for the Sox to hold onto assets for the hope of making the playoffs - though I do hope they supplement the roster with some pieces if they do indeed decide to hold Sale and Q for the time being - but moreso advocating for them maximizing the return they get on these guys. Making a trade to make a trade is the worst thing the Sox could do. They need to clean someones minor league system of all the top talent, not settle for 2nd tier guys because team X, Y or Z wasn't willing to trade their top young talent. Well guess what - then you're not getting Chris Sale, and you can keep running out your garbage back end starters or go and pay Jeremy Hellickson $55M over the next three years.

Edited by ChiSox59

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 11:29 AM)
Teams generally aren't going to trade meaningful pieces off the ML roster during a playoff hunt. Boston, for example, was probably unwilling to trade JBJ. I am sure the Sox want Betts (who wouldn't?), but that ship has sailed. Not to mention that teams not in contention probably aren't going to be interested at that point in time.

 

I am not advocating for the Sox to hold onto assets for the hope of making the playoffs - though I do hope they supplement the roster with some pieces if they do indeed decide to hold Sale and Q for the time being - but moreso advocating for them maximizing the return they get on these guys. Making a trade to make a trade is the worst thing the Sox could do. They need to clean someones minor league system of all the top talent, not settle for 2nd tier guys because team X, Y or Z wasn't willing to trade their top young talent. Well guess what - then you're not getting Chris Sale, and you can keep running out your garbage back end starters or go and pay Jeremy Hellickson $55M over the next three years.

 

I don't think either of us really wants to have them mess this up by having them trade for whatever they can get. My point is mostly that a team like Boston is already a playoff caliber team. The White Sox haven't been close in years. They're the ones who need to make something happen way more than the Red Sox.

 

The problem with trading for a Jackie Bradley Jr. type is that his value is very nearly that of Sale, and you might not be able to get much more out of the Red Sox other than him. I'm not sure that's the trade they need to be making right now, but it could make for an interesting retool on the fly situation.

 

 

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QUOTE (gatnom @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 11:40 AM)
I don't think either of us really wants to have them mess this up by having them trade for whatever they can get. My point is mostly that a team like Boston is already a playoff caliber team. The White Sox haven't been close in years. They're the ones who need to make something happen way more than the Red Sox.

 

The problem with trading for a Jackie Bradley Jr. type is that his value is very nearly that of Sale, and you might not be able to get much more out of the Red Sox other than him. I'm not sure that's the trade they need to be making right now, but it could make for an interesting retool on the fly situation.

 

Jackie Bradley Jr's value is not anywhere near Sale, IMO. He's a nice first piece, but I'd still want 4 of their top prospects with him.

 

JBJ, Beintendi, Devers, Kopech and Rodriguez. If they're unwilling to include JBJ, then take Moncada.

 

The Red Sox are about to get knocked out of the playoffs in the first round because they have mediocre SP. There will be pressure to make a move, and there are no moves to be made on the FA market. That's called leverage.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 09:51 AM)
Jackie Bradley Jr's value is not anywhere near Sale, IMO. He's a nice first piece, but I'd still want 4 of their top prospects with him.

 

JBJ, Beintendi, Devers, Kopech and Rodriguez. If they're unwilling to include JBJ, then take Moncada.

 

The Red Sox are about to get knocked out of the playoffs in the first round because they have mediocre SP. There will be pressure to make a move, and there are no moves to be made on the FA market. That's called leverage.

 

I agree with what you are saying here about what it would take to get for Chris Sale and many of the other posts here. There is one thing that hasn't been brought up and that is Boston thought they were getting a Ace last offseason when they signed David Price for 30+ million a year contract. I damn near fell out of chair when I saw that and it wasn't because I was a huge fan of Price. I think it just shows how much teams will pay for what they feel will be a true Ace. This and what Arizona paid for Zack Greinke which at the time I thought was one of the worst Free Agent contracts of all time.

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QUOTE (midway @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 12:54 PM)
I agree with what you are saying here about what it would take to get for Chris Sale and many of the other posts here. There is one thing that hasn't been brought up and that is Boston thought they were getting a Ace last offseason when they signed David Price for 30+ million a year contract. I damn near fell out of chair when I saw that and it wasn't because I was a huge fan of Price. I think it just shows how much teams will pay for what they feel will be a true Ace. This and what Arizona paid for Zack Greinke which at the time I thought was one of the worst Free Agent contracts of all time.

 

Right. That's a big reason why he's so valuable. Yah, he's a really freakin' good pitcher, but he also gives your team enormous payroll flexibility.

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QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 11:51 AM)
Jackie Bradley Jr's value is not anywhere near Sale, IMO. He's a nice first piece, but I'd still want 4 of their top prospects with him.

 

JBJ, Beintendi, Devers, Kopech and Rodriguez. If they're unwilling to include JBJ, then take Moncada.

 

The Red Sox are about to get knocked out of the playoffs in the first round because they have mediocre SP. There will be pressure to make a move, and there are no moves to be made on the FA market. That's called leverage.

 

He was a 4.9 WAR player last year (to Sale's 5.2) and is under control for 1 more year. I agree he's less valuable, but it's closer than you think.

 

 

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I don't have any faith in the Sox to pull this off correctly, but dealing Sale and Q (along with Abreu/Robertson/Frazier) could land enough prospects to truly turn around the franchise. I think at this point I would sign up for this.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 10, 2016 -> 08:12 AM)
Trading Sale with his contract situation is pretty close to unprecedented. It's one reason why I think there is a cap on what teams would be willing to give up, and while the package would be huge, not as huge as using previous trades and adding Sale's increased value would make it.

This has been true for a good long time now, and it's the main reason I kept saying a Sale trade would never happen as each deadline popped up. It would be the type of thing that would get a GM fired if it didn't work.

 

Now that he only has three years left on his deal, I think all that is slightly less true. There's a fair trade to be made here. We'll see.

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