A Realistic Offseason

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

7 minutes ago, bmags said:

Thanks, I really need age though.

I don't know if they hit 1800 IP at age 33 or 29. Considering the lower IPs thrown I'd guess it has started to occur later in a pitchers age.

I'm not advocating that aging curves don't exist, but that those that pitched at a high level and consistently higher IPs were not more likely to fall off due to "mileage", and in fact were better bets. But that's not in perpetuity, there is an age where decline hits. But for Bumgarner we are talking about the age 30-33 seasons as the real bulk of the contract you'd need him for.

I'll see if I can work age in. 

I'll attach all 43 breakdowns once I finish with something for actual work.

I have Bumgarner's and can export coles/wheeler/odorizzi as well to see where they fall.

From an analysis I did prior, IP had a higher correlation of decline than age - which makes sense. Mileage would have more of an impact.

I didnt export player age with this data export - I have ages on my computer at home but forgot to transfer that table over to pair it to the player ids.

[bmags]

4 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'll see if I can work age in. 

I'll attach all 43 breakdowns once I finish with something for actual work.

I have Bumgarner's and can export coles/wheeler/odorizzi as well to see where they fall.

From an analysis I did prior, IP had a higher correlation of decline than age - which makes sense. Mileage would have more of an impact.

I didnt export player age with this data export - I have ages on my computer at home but forgot to transfer that table over to pair it to the player ids.

What data set is this connecting to?

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

1 hour ago, bmags said:

What data set is this connecting to?

This data is exported from fangraphs; I have a breference export and others as well, but only tied FGraphs into this set.

Here is a graphic of all the pitchers we discussed. The trends are as follows:

37 of the 49 pitchers experience a steady decline following their peak (which on average took place after 987 innings pitched).

There were some exceptions:

1. Scherzer is like fine wine - look at that man's chart! He just keeps getting better and better.

2. AJ Burnett had no real peak - his career was a culmination of 3-4 peaks and valleys not tied to age but possibly injury

3. Buehrle had an earlyish peak, but he remained pretty constant over his career.

4. Cliff Lee struggled mightily early (as most knew) and then steadily increased after 1000 IP.

5. Bumgarner has shown a similar constant to those in the 37 of 49 group; he peaked at about 950 innings, and has been on a decline before this years small spike upward. The question with Bumgarner is will he normalize at his new level, or will his outputs look really similar to the rest o pitchers who continued to trend downward despite a spike in an individual year here and there at the end of their career. 

I'm going to put Odorizzi, Wheeler and Bumgarner side by side to look at and I'll build a quick projection based on the expected decrease post 987 innings to see where there WAR could sit the next 4-5 years.

https://ibb.co/C9PtJz7

You'll have to click on the link to the picture above because it is too large to attach to this file. 

Edited October 8, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

I'm not drawing any conclusions based on just this, as there are hundreds of variables that I need to look at further, but if you wan to do similarity scores on these pitchers you see the following comparisons:

1. Bumgarner - Closest similarity score is CC Sabathia; who had a similar spike early and mid, only to fall off a cliff for 350 innings and then rebound to a level that was about 70% of his previous highs. CC's return to being slightly above average lasted for roughly 490 innings. He never regained form following his initial decline.

2. Odorizzi - If you remove the injury year, Odorizzi's closest comp of regression is Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez was average and then had a five peak year run where his WAR/IP stayed above .02 WAR/IP. Odorizzi would be in year 2 of his spike - it doesn't mean he has three years left of productivity it just means that's the closest equal.

3. Wheeler - Well, this one is kind of tricky. Wheeler could head in one of two likely directions as he has to comps through his IP total and one of those comps is an OOOOO la la. One comp through his IP total is Max Scherzer ironically enough. Wheeler is in year 2 of his growth post surgery, and he has seen a steady increase in WAR/IP year over year at the same rate as Scherzer. Obviously, Scherzer is the biggest outlier of our data set and continued to grow. Wheeler is certainly not guaranteed to do that but man it sure is nice to dream. His other is Johnny Cueto, who is still a nice comp in regards to age regression.

In general, I'd say I feel most comfortable with Wheeler of the three. There's risk there, but you can dream on Wheeler like you can't on the other two IMO. Wheeler is trending up for all the right reasons; while Odorizzi has some artificial WAR escalators. 

[SoxBlanco]

@Look at Ray Ray Run, thanks for doing that.  It's pretty interesting stuff.  

[35thstreetswarm]

Yes - thanks.  This is great stuff.

[bmags]

7 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not drawing any conclusions based on just this, as there are hundreds of variables that I need to look at further, but if you wan to do similarity scores on these pitchers you see the following comparisons:

1. Bumgarner - Closest similarity score is CC Sabathia; who had a similar spike early and mid, only to fall off a cliff for 350 innings and then rebound to a level that was about 70% of his previous highs. CC's return to being slightly above average lasted for roughly 490 innings. He never regained form following his initial decline.

2. Odorizzi - If you remove the injury year, Odorizzi's closest comp of regression is Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez was average and then had a five peak year run where his WAR/IP stayed above .02 WAR/IP. Odorizzi would be in year 2 of his spike - it doesn't mean he has three years left of productivity it just means that's the closest equal.

3. Wheeler - Well, this one is kind of tricky. Wheeler could head in one of two likely directions as he has to comps through his IP total and one of those comps is an OOOOO la la. One comp through his IP total is Max Scherzer ironically enough. Wheeler is in year 2 of his growth post surgery, and he has seen a steady increase in WAR/IP year over year at the same rate as Scherzer. Obviously, Scherzer is the biggest outlier of our data set and continued to grow. Wheeler is certainly not guaranteed to do that but man it sure is nice to dream. His other is Johnny Cueto, who is still a nice comp in regards to age regression.

In general, I'd say I feel most comfortable with Wheeler of the three. There's risk there, but you can dream on Wheeler like you can't on the other two IMO. Wheeler is trending up for all the right reasons; while Odorizzi has some artificial WAR escalators. 

Thanks this is very interesting.

I guess for me I would bank on bumgarner as the surest thing for getting a productive pitcher for the next 4 years, whereas wheeler has the greatest upside of being an ace that grows in the second half of his career.

Would you agree?

 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

18 minutes ago, SoxBlanco said:

@Look at Ray Ray Run, thanks for doing that.  It's pretty interesting stuff.  

No worries, the best part about this is that from over my shoulder, it looks like I'm doing my job. 😂

Slow few days at work before the storm hits me on Thursday/Friday. 

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

25 minutes ago, bmags said:

Thanks this is very interesting.

I guess for me I would bank on bumgarner as the surest thing for getting a productive pitcher for the next 4 years, whereas wheeler has the greatest upside of being an ace that grows in the second half of his career.

Would you agree?

 

Yes, agree 100%.

I think there's risk tied to Wheeler because of the surgeries, but the best part about the surgeries is it's limited his arm mileage. 

Odorizzi seems to be a classic case of a veteran pitcher figuring out some form of contact suppression paired with a slight spike in velocity, but based on others that shared his similarity scores, there's a higher chance of escalated regression during the tenure of his next contract than Bumgarner and Wheeler. I think the Anibal Sanchez comp was actually an excellent one for Odorizzi. Wheeler isn't really a candidate to fall off a cliff - non-injury related - which I found really promising when it comes to signing him.

I'm tying a bunch of other parameters into these drill downs - such as FIP, BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% and wRC+ against, FB% and GB% - to match up the similarities even further.

I just can't get over what a machine Scherzer is. Talk about an outlier. Verlander is the closest and he's not all that close due to his mid-career downswing. 

Edited October 8, 2019 by Look at Ray Ray Run

[bmags]

13 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Yes, agree 100%.

I think there's risk tied to Wheeler because of the surgeries, but the best part about the surgeries is it's limited his arm mileage. 

Odorizzi seems to be a classic case of a veteran pitcher figuring out some form of contact suppression paired with a slight spike in velocity, but based on others that shared his similarity scores, there's a higher chance of escalated regression during the tenure of his next contract than Bumgarner and Wheeler. I think the Anibal Sanchez comp was actually an excellent one for Odorizzi. Wheeler isn't really a candidate to fall off a cliff - non-injury related - which I found really promising when it comes to signing him.

I'm tying a bunch of other parameters into these drill downs - such as FIP, BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% and wRC+ against, FB% and GB% - to match up the similarities even further.

I just can't get over what a machine Scherzer is. Talk about an outlier. Verlander is the closest and he's not all that close due to his mid-career downswing. 

Did Kluber pop up at all? I can't think of anyone else like him.

edit: wow he is still only at 1300 innings. 

[Colinski]

 

So having had time to think about it, here is my off-season plan. Each position I want to upgrade will have a plan A and a plan B (RF, SP x2, Catcher/DH and RP). I will also add a few what ifs/ideas, some of which I’ve not yet see anyone consider. Simply if the plan A player doesn’t want to become a Sox or price gets unrealistic we go straight to plan B. The signings should also keep us under a too high wage bill.

 

Plan A. 

Starting Pitchers

 

STRASBURG- I think he will opt out. His injuries seem to be behind him and because of them he has only pitched 200 more innings life time than COLE. In spite of being older I think his track record and pedigree makes him a player I’d want. Don’t get me wrong I want COLE, but this might be more realistic.

 

KEUCHEL 

 

He was my main target last year and the same reasoning applies. He has a different profile (contact/ground-ball and lefty) to our other starters. He also doesn’t rely on a big fastball so shouldn’t fall off a cliff performance wise.

 

Plan B 

Strasburg’s plan B is Wheeler and Keuchel’s plan B is RYU.

 

I want to win and win big soon. These two have injury risk but if hit give us more than going for another plan B Option.

 

RIGHT FIELD

 

Plan A

CALHOUN - we need home runs, we need a left handed bat and we need to upgrade our fielding. Calhoun checks all of these. I know he doesn’t scream of plan A but the long term plan is give him a 1 year deal and next year we go stupidly hard for BETTS or SPRINGER. I know we don’t want stop gaps overall but this one makes so much sense.

 

PLAN B

DICKERSON or GARDNER

 

simply anyone who is better than what we had in 2019 and will take a one year deal.

 

CATCHER/DH

 

PLAN A

 

GRANDAL - the reasons have been stated across this board. Hits switch, other than one poor post season is a good catcher and guards against MCCANN regression or COLLINS not making it. 

 

PLAN B

 

DONALDSON - I love DONALDSON for us. I know he’s a righty hitter but I still want him. He can take MONCADA off his feat, ABREU off his, can DH. Basically he does what a MARTINEZ does but also has a position.

 

 

Relief Pitcher (note - I’m not too worried about this as I have faith one of HAMILTON or JOHNSON will step up, I think FULMER or CORDERO could do low leverage and we know we what we have in BUMMER now)

 

PLAN A

 

WILL HARRIS

 

400 innings nearly of sub 3 era (FIP 3.03) and shouldn’t cost more than we can afford.

 

Plan B

Collin MCHUGH - has the benefit of being able to pitch multiple innings 

 

Additional thoughts 

 

I’ve avoided MARTINEZ and CASTELLANOS for reasons of handedness, fielding and contract length. Simply I’d want to save the money for BETTS/SPRINGER. I know this might make people hate my plan... I’m okay with that

 

Eric THAMES is interesting to me as a left handed bench bat (if he ends up a free agent). 25 home runs and 1.6 WAR in less than 400 at bats

 

AVI GARCIA - I want him back. He solves the right field issue. I just think between our execs not wanting to accept they messed up and his unhappiness at been cut it won’t happen.

 

I also want us to try and sign MONCADA, GIOLITTO, ROBERT and MADRIGAL to extension (priority in that order). Simply I want to extend our contention window. 

 

I wouldn’t be too upset if we get a COLE/STRASBURG and then due to finances go for WOOD/NOVA as a second pitcher.

 

I also wouldn’t mind a left handed reliever as I don’t try FRY. I just don’t know which one I’d want. 

 

Line up wise I’d want Robert and Moncada one and two in the line up with Madrigal 9 until he learns to hit pitches he can hit with power rather than simply hit, which I think he has in him.

 

Thanks for taking the time to read this if you have. I fully expect and encourage different opinions.

 

p.s wrote this on notes on my phone so might come out weird on here, sorry

[Chicago White Sox]

58 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

I'm not drawing any conclusions based on just this, as there are hundreds of variables that I need to look at further, but if you wan to do similarity scores on these pitchers you see the following comparisons:

1. Bumgarner - Closest similarity score is CC Sabathia; who had a similar spike early and mid, only to fall off a cliff for 350 innings and then rebound to a level that was about 70% of his previous highs. CC's return to being slightly above average lasted for roughly 490 innings. He never regained form following his initial decline.

2. Odorizzi - If you remove the injury year, Odorizzi's closest comp of regression is Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez was average and then had a five peak year run where his WAR/IP stayed above .02 WAR/IP. Odorizzi would be in year 2 of his spike - it doesn't mean he has three years left of productivity it just means that's the closest equal.

3. Wheeler - Well, this one is kind of tricky. Wheeler could head in one of two likely directions as he has to comps through his IP total and one of those comps is an OOOOO la la. One comp through his IP total is Max Scherzer ironically enough. Wheeler is in year 2 of his growth post surgery, and he has seen a steady increase in WAR/IP year over year at the same rate as Scherzer. Obviously, Scherzer is the biggest outlier of our data set and continued to grow. Wheeler is certainly not guaranteed to do that but man it sure is nice to dream. His other is Johnny Cueto, who is still a nice comp in regards to age regression.

In general, I'd say I feel most comfortable with Wheeler of the three. There's risk there, but you can dream on Wheeler like you can't on the other two IMO. Wheeler is trending up for all the right reasons; while Odorizzi has some artificial WAR escalators. 

I’ll keep saying it, but Wheeler is a no brainer if Cole & Strasburg are off the table.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

Kluber is actually really similar to Bumgarner (if we ignore age and just focus on IP). Kluber's peak was better (see the WAR/IP on the right as the scale is different) but there 6 year window of similarity is incredibly similar. Kluber is older so time will tell if he bounces back like Bumgarner did this year - I wouldn't expect him ever to return to form based on the fact that no one has followed his trajectory and then peaked up again (unless you count Verlander and I don't).

I have attached Kluber and Bumgarner to compare. 

I also added Cole just to show how amazing Cole is. He's at 1200 innings pitched with no regression registering yet. I'm not sure if that means it's right around the corner for Cole, or if he's going to blow through the regression line and become this generations pitching outlier. It's hard not to understand the hesitance that FO's have when signing pitchers to big long FA contracts. 

Greinke is an interesting one as he has clearly evolved as he aged - his aging curve looks more similar to soft tossers (alternating peaks and valleys) after his initial regression which was dramatic when his stuff took a downward trajectory. 

[Colinski]

6 minutes ago, Look at Ray Ray Run said:

Kluber is actually really similar to Bumgarner (if we ignore age and just focus on IP). Kluber's peak was better (see the WAR/IP on the right as the scale is different) but there 6 year window of similarity is incredibly similar. Kluber is older so time will tell if he bounces back like Bumgarner did this year - I wouldn't expect him ever to return to form based on the fact that no one has followed his trajectory and then peaked up again (unless you count Verlander and I don't).

I have attached Kluber and Bumgarner to compare. 

I also added Cole just to show how amazing Cole is. He's at 1200 innings pitched with no regression registering yet. I'm not sure if that means it's right around the corner for Cole, or if he's going to blow through the regression line and become this generations pitching outlier. It's hard not to understand the hesitance that FO's have when signing pitchers to big long FA contracts. 

Greinke is an interesting one as he has clearly evolved as he aged - his aging curve looks more similar to soft tossers (alternating peaks and valleys) after his initial regression which was dramatic when his stuff took a downward trajectory. 

Loving your work on this. 

[BamaDoc]

Colinski, thanks for taking the time to present a plan and not bad.  I am figuring you are around 125 new money if Abreu comes back so I am doubtful on getting it all done and appreciate the plan B part as well.  I agree someone from our relievers steps up and I am not crazy about Colome at 10 million closing as I fear regression.  Hopefully Hererra is what he was supposed to be and balances some of it out.  

As you watch the playoffs, you see little things matter like defense, getting guys over or in from third.

Ray Ray awesome stuff.  Ive gotta dig into it more.  Thanks

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

6 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’ll keep saying it, but Wheeler is a no brainer if Cole & Strasburg are off the table.

Strasburg would be fine, but I do want to emphasize that his regression has already started. He peaked in 2017 and has been below that level in 2018 and 2019 despite being healthier than usual. It's not dramatic, and if he ages gracefully he should still be good the next 3-4 years, but at 1500 innings already he's really close (500-700 innings) away from a point that most arms (90%+ of this group) fell off a cliff.

From 2013-2017 he saw a rise in production every single year, in 2018 he regressed and 2019 he bounced back a little. I don't think he'll ever return to his 2017 outputs though based on the trends showing now. He's learned how to pitch with lesser stuff so he may stabilize where his is now until his stuff deteriorates further and we will see another year that will require adjustments to succeed.

[bmags]

Out of curiousity say we learned that our payroll budget can be 145 (basically 2012 plus inflation) but can stretch with a winning team to 160-165.

Would people want to be prudent this offseason to see what another year of needs are or would you fill up with this class? With just the pitching class and see how our position players do?

[Dick Allen]

Take it for what it's worth, which is quite possibly nothing,  but a guy who may or may not be a White Sox  insider says keep on eye on Mad Bum. 

Edited October 8, 2019 by Dick Allen

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

I just want to say, I wouldn't touch Keuchel with a 10 foot pole personally. He has been trending down every single year since 2015, culminating into this year where he's been dreadful when you ignore his ERA. After his peak in 2015, he flat lined in 2016, 2017 and 2018 remaining constantly average but this year he took a hell of a nose dive down to well below average. If you believe it was due to him sitting out, fine, but then you're just hoping he returns to his middling level of 2016-2018. Any regression from that makes him Ivan Nova bad.

[BackDoorBreach]

4 minutes ago, bmags said:

Out of curiousity say we learned that our payroll budget can be 145 (basically 2012 plus inflation) but can stretch with a winning team to 160-165.

Would people want to be prudent this offseason to see what another year of needs are or would you fill up with this class? With just the pitching class and see how our position players do?

I think if they end up ~140 after this FA period we should be in good shape.  That would be 90 million spent. Save the rest to see what's available next year. 

Unless of course we sign Cole, then tap it out.

[Bob Sacamano]

7 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

Take it for what it's worth, which is quite possibly nothing,  but a guy who may or may not be a White Sox  insider says keep on eye on Mad Bum. 

My buddy says he got a text from another friend who works in sales for the team saying that they were told to be prepared for Gerritt Cole.....pretty sure they were told the same about Machado though.

But again, take that for what it's worth.

[Dick Allen]

1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I think if they end up ~140 after this FA period we should be in good shape.  That would be 90 million spent. Save the rest to see what's available next year. 

Unless of course we sign Cole, then tap it out.

I can't see them spending that much in one offseason. I think we will be lucky if it's $110 million. 

[bmags]

1 minute ago, BackDoorBreach said:

I think if they end up ~140 after this FA period we should be in good shape.  That would be 90 million spent. Save the rest to see what's available next year. 

Unless of course we sign Cole, then tap it out.

If we signed cole the implication being you should take advantage of as much of his contract as possible and max out the budget this year right?

I still just don't like so much of the position players. I'd be okay if we loaded up on pitching though with a high end guy and multiple depth plays.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

2 minutes ago, soxfan2014 said:

My buddy says he got a text from another friend who works in sales for the team saying that they were told to be prepared for Gerritt Cole.....pretty sure they were told the same about Machado though.

But again, take that for what it's worth.

Not this again... ha, I don't think there are going to be many leaks nor do I think the team is going to build expectations (even internally) as they did last off season. If they learned one lesson, it's to strike in silence and fail in silence.

[Look at Ray Ray Run]

4 minutes ago, Dick Allen said:

I can't see them spending that much in one offseason. I think we will be lucky if it's $110 million. 

They could address pretty much every area of concern with a good player and be at 110 so i wouldn't be mad at that.

Wheeler, Smith, RF, JD Martinez would get you to about 110.