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Jack Parkman

Foodies: Sox/Giolito discussing an extension?????

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3 minutes ago, The Beast said:

What about Danks?

Oh hello dere Bob!!

 

You beat me to it, dammit. 

Edited by Jack Parkman
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1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

Oh hello dere Bob!!

 

You beat me to it, dammit. 

Hi Chris!😂

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Giolito should fire his agent if he puts a 5/65 in front of him.

His two free agent years alone would be with more than that on the open market.  We are talking about 3 arb years and 2 FA years.

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2 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Giolito should fire his agent if he puts a 5/65 in front of him.

His two free agent years alone would be with more than that on the open market.  We are talking about 3 arb years and 2 FA years.

Moncada did the same for 5/70. Should his agent be fired?

I'd expect a Giolito extension to be similar to the one Moncada signed. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Moncada did the same for 5/70. Should his agent be fired? 

Moncada got his deal 1 year earlier.

 

Screenshot_20210111-222329_Chrome.jpg

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15 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Giolito should fire his agent if he puts a 5/65 in front of him.

His two free agent years alone would be with more than that on the open market.  We are talking about 3 arb years and 2 FA years.

That seems way off. 

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3 minutes ago, Soxbadger said:

That seems way off. 

Top of the market starting pitching is 30 million and up. Cole got 36.  Giolito is 3 years away from being able to hit that open market. Maybe you get him for 25 a year to buyout those two years like they did Moncada, but that is 50 million right there.

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1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

Top of the market starting pitching is 30 million and up. Cole got 36.  Giolito is 3 years away from being able to hit that open market. Maybe you get him for 25 a year to buyout those two years like they did Moncada, but that is 50 million right there.

I meant 5/65 seems way cheap.

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Giolito should be an instant fan favorite if he signs anything that cheap.

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2 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Giolito should be an instant fan favorite if he signs anything that cheap.

And a very popular trade chip 

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7 minutes ago, SoxAce said:

Giolito should be an instant fan favorite if he signs anything that cheap.

My thoughts are 4/65 with a 25M club option and a $5M buyout. 

So the deal could be 4/70 with the ability to be 5/90. 

would be structured: 

2021: 5M

2022: 13M

2023: 21M

2024: 25M 

2025: 25M club option with a $5M buyout

Edited by Jack Parkman

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3 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

My thoughts are 4/65 with a 25M club option and a $5M buyout. 

So the deal could be 4/70 with the ability to be 5/90. 

would be structured: 

2021: 5M

2022: 13M

2023: 21M

2024: 25M 

2025: 25M club option with a $5M buyout

That’s too rich.  I think he ultimately agrees to something around 5/$75M.

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4 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

My thoughts are 4/65 with a 25M club option and a $5M buyout. 

So the deal could be 4/70 with the ability to be 5/90. 

would be structured: 

2021: 5M

2022: 13M

2023: 21M

2024: 25M 

2025: 25M club option with a $5M buyout

Agreed this is much closer.  I had thought between 17-20 gets it done as we are getting two years of FA.  If you look at similar contracts (Snell and Nola) our per year is significantly more.  It’s fair

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Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

That’s too rich.  I think he ultimately agrees to something around 5/$75M.

It's really not though. All 5 of those years are pretty well under market value of going year to year, but not enough to be insulting.  It would actually mirror the same years of the Moncada deal pretty well. 

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4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's really not though. All 5 of those years are pretty well under market value of going year to year, but not enough to be insulting.  It would actually mirror the same years of the Moncada deal pretty well. 

Right, and that's how I came up with the salary structure. 

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4 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

It's really not though. All 5 of those years are pretty well under market value of going year to year, but not enough to be insulting.  It would actually mirror the same years of the Moncada deal pretty well. 

You don’t get market value when you sign an extension three years prior to free agency.  And as I showed you before, the best comp is Nola’s 5/$61M extension.  Lucas getting 5/$75M would represent a 23% increase.  It’s incredibly unlikely he’d get more than $75M over five years.

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2 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Right, and that's how I came up with the salary structure. 

In what world does a pitcher get paid market rates for signing an extension three years prior to free agency?

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1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You don’t get market value when you sign an extension three years prior to free agency.  And as I showed you before, the best comp is Nola’s 5/$61M extension.  Lucas getting 5/$75M would represent a 23% increase.  It’s incredibly unlikely he’d get more than $75M over five years.

The numbers Jack outlined are clearly under market value numbers which correspond to an existing extension signed more recently.  I don't see them giving Moncada that deal, and then chopping money off of a deal for Giolito who is a year later in his service. 

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4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

You don’t get market value when you sign an extension three years prior to free agency.  And as I showed you before, the best comp is Nola’s 5/$61M extension.  Lucas getting 5/$75M would represent a 23% increase.  It’s incredibly unlikely he’d get more than $75M over five years.

Zero chance he signs that cheap.

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Just now, southsider2k5 said:

The numbers Jack outlined are clearly under market value numbers which correspond to an existing extension signed more recently.  I don't see them giving Moncada that deal, and then chopping money off of a deal for Giolito who is a year later in his service. 

Why are you using a 3B as comp for a SP?  That is not how these things work.  Pitchers are naturally far more risky and that’s factored into the price of an extension, hence why the Nola deal plus some markup makes the most sense.

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11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

In what world does a pitcher get paid market rates for signing an extension three years prior to free agency?

Zack Wheeler got a $25M AAV offer on the free market and he's a borderline #2. You have to adjust your expectations. Ace money is 30M+ now. If Giolito gets better than he is now, that is a fucking bargain. 

25M is "#3 with the stuff to be a #2 or ace" money at this point. 

Ace money is Gerrit Cole and Kershaw's contracts now. 

Even if Giolito just maintained his current level of performance over the life of the contract I'd still pick up that 5th year option. If he gets better, theres $10-15M of surplus value on those 2 FA years. 

Edited by Jack Parkman

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