1 minute ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Why are you using a 3B as comp for a SP?  That is not how these things work.  Pitchers are naturally far more risky and that’s factored into the price of an extension, hence why the Nola deal plus some markup makes the most sense.

Aaron Nola signed a terrible extension deal.  He gave up a free agency year for a 16 million dollar option.  That is awful.  If Lucas wanted to sign a deal like that he would have done it years ago.

Garritt Cole is getting 20 MILLION dollars a year more than that by going to the open market.  DeGrom is making $35 a year for his free agency years. Greinke is $35 million.

Trevor Bauer just got $38 million by going year to year through arbitration, and now gets to eat in his free agency years. Ryu pulled down 34 million for those arb years.  Degrom was $41 million.

4 minutes ago, Vulture said:

The Nola deal was a year earlier in his arb process though.

This is not true.

6 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Zack Wheeler got a $25M AAV offer on the free market and he's a borderline #2. You have to adjust your expectations. Ace money is 30M+ now. If Giolito gets better than he is now, that is a fucking bargain. 

25M is "#3 with the stuff to be a #2 or ace" money at this point. 

Ace money is Gerrit Cole and Kershaw's contracts now. 

Even if Giolito just maintained his current level of performance over the life of the contract I'd still pick up that 5th year option. If he gets better, theres $10-15M of surplus value on those 2 FA years. 

Lucas Giolito isn’t a free agent.

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

This is not true.

I thought he signed with 2 years service time. Upon further review you are correct

Edited January 12, 20215 yr by Vulture

Just now, Chicago White Sox said:

Lucas Giolito isn’t a free agent.

He will be in three years if the offers are that bad.

5 minutes ago, southsider2k5 said:

Aaron Nola signed a terrible extension deal.  He gave up a free agency year for a 16 million dollar option.  That is awful.  If Lucas wanted to sign a deal like that he would have done it years ago.

Garritt Cole is getting 20 MILLION dollars a year more than that by going to the open market.  DeGrom is making $35 a year for his free agency years. Greinke is $35 million.

Trevor Bauer just got $38 million by going year to year through arbitration, and now gets to eat in his free agency years. Ryu pulled down 34 million for those arb years.  Degrom was $41 million.

If we wants to maximize his earnings, then he won’t sign an extension.  If he wants to lock in some guaranteed money because of the risk of injury then he’ll take less than market.  That’s how these things work.  I’m sure no-one would say Nola’s deal was bad if he ended up getting and missing time.

Edited January 12, 20215 yr by Chicago White Sox

1 minute ago, southsider2k5 said:

He will be in three years if the offers are that bad.

So why do any of these pitchers expect below market extensions if the offers are so bad?  ?

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

So why do any of these pitchers expect below market extensions if the offers are so bad?  ?

In some ways these deals are the best of both worlds. The player gets generational money (guaranteed) while also ensuring they still have one crack at free agency while they are still in their "prime" earning years.  In a best case scenario - they are obviously leaving money on the table, but in a worse case scenario - they have secured the fact that if they have any clue how to manage money...than they and all future generations of their family are more than set for life.  

Now each individual has different risk tolerances - but to me these deals seem like total no brainers as long as they are reasonably fair. The exception was the Braves deal where said player gave up way too much leverage (in my opinion).  

Just now, Chisoxfn said:

If some ways these deals are the best of both worlds. The player gets generational money (guaranteed) while also ensuring they still have one crack at free agency while they are still in their "prime" earning years.  In a best case scenario - they are obviously leaving money on the table, but in a worse case scenario - they have secured the fact that if they have any clue how to manage money...than they and all future generations of their family are more than set for life.  

Now each individual has different risk tolerances - but to me these deals seem like total no brainers as long as they are reasonably fair. The exception was the Braves deal where said player gave up way too much leverage (in my opinion).  

Exactly. Lucas will potentially be leaving money on the table by agreeing to an extension, but he locks in a sizable guarantee to protect himself in the event of injury and would still hit free agency at 31 with a five year deal.  I think it’s something he would go for, but obviously there is a trade-off there and if healthy he’s probably not maximizing his earnings.

6 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

Aaron Nola signed a terrible extension deal.  He gave up a free agency year for a 16 million dollar option.  That is awful.  If Lucas wanted to sign a deal like that he would have done it years ago.

Garritt Cole is getting 20 MILLION dollars a year more than that by going to the open market.  DeGrom is making $35 a year for his free agency years. Greinke is $35 million.

Trevor Bauer just got $38 million by going year to year through arbitration, and now gets to eat in his free agency years. Ryu pulled down 34 million for those arb years.  Degrom was $41 million.

Nola was injured a lot. Giolito probably won't feel the same need to hedge risk. But any pitcher with a TJS has to have some concern it blows up.

8 hours ago, Chisoxfn said:

In some ways these deals are the best of both worlds. The player gets generational money (guaranteed) while also ensuring they still have one crack at free agency while they are still in their "prime" earning years.  In a best case scenario - they are obviously leaving money on the table, but in a worse case scenario - they have secured the fact that if they have any clue how to manage money...than they and all future generations of their family are more than set for life.  

Now each individual has different risk tolerances - but to me these deals seem like total no brainers as long as they are reasonably fair. The exception was the Braves deal where said player gave up way too much leverage (in my opinion).  

I 100% agree with everything said here.  Extending Gio would be every bit as big of a deal as the Hendriks signing IMO.

9 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

If we wants to maximize his earnings, then he won’t sign an extension.  If he wants to lock in some guaranteed money because of the risk of injury then he’ll take less than market.  That’s how these things work.  I’m sure no-one would say Nola’s deal was bad if he ended up getting and missing time.

There is a MILE of ground between what you are talking about, and what is market value.  If your idea and the other extreme are the only options a deal isn't done.  That is why other people are talking about a middle ground which makes the most sense here.  For some reason you are stuck on one low end outlier.

5/65 seems too low for Giolito to take at this point.

I would think it ends up being closer to 5/90 if a deal gets done. 

 

 

 

@Y2Jimmy0

How confident are you that Giolito signs an extension this offseason? 

1 minute ago, Jack Parkman said:

@Y2Jimmy0

How confident are you that Giolito signs an extension this offseason? 

Not really sure. I just know they're talking. 

22 minutes ago, Y2Jimmy0 said:

Not really sure. I just know they're talking. 

What do you think it would command?

10 hours ago, southsider2k5 said:

There is a MILE of ground between what you are talking about, and what is market value.  If your idea and the other extreme are the only options a deal isn't done.  That is why other people are talking about a middle ground which makes the most sense here.  For some reason you are stuck on one low end outlier.

What other pitchers have signed extensions at a similar point in time?  Tell me why Nola is the outlier?  Have you done any research on this at all?  You keeping trying to act like 5/$75M is this ridiculously low number, but it’s 23% higher than Nola’s extension just two years ago.  If it’s really a big outlier, show me all the other extensions that prove this.  And no, Yoan Moncada is not a good comp...pitchers are inherently riskier and that’s baked into the potential cost of a deal.

On 1/11/2021 at 9:26 PM, Chicago White Sox said:

So why do any of these pitchers expect below market extensions if the offers are so bad?  ?

I think you meant accept not expect.

 

 

Edited January 22, 20215 yr by Jack Parkman

As he should.

1 minute ago, SoxAce said:

As he should.

Gio is in line for a $200M+ contract if he reaches free agency. Those two FA years are going to have to be north of 30M. 

I don't see Jerry doing that......We should all enjoy him while he's here, and if Kopech emerges, as much as I hate to say it....consider moving him vs letting him walk for nothing. 

58 minutes ago, Jack Parkman said:

Gio is in line for a $200M+ contract if he reaches free agency. Those two FA years are going to have to be north of 30M. 

I don't see Jerry doing that......We should all enjoy him while he's here, and if Kopech emerges, as much as I hate to say it....consider moving him vs letting him walk for nothing. 

This is also a good reason to keep as many of Crochet/Kelley/Vera/Dahlquist/Thompson etc as possible. If Giolito will soon become essentially unsignable because the old man dragged his feet too long we need to keep those young arms so hopefully at least a few of them can turn into viable SPers in MLB as replacing Giolito (again without spending money) will be a huge priority.

Edited January 22, 20215 yr by SoCalChiSox

4 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:

This is also a good reason to keep as many of Crochet/Kelley/Vera/Dahlquist/Thompson etc as possible. If Giolito will soon become essentially unsinkable because the old man dragged his feet too long we need to keep those young arms so hopefully at least a few of them can turn into viable SPers in MLB as replacing Giolito (again without spending money) will be a huge priority.

Yep, that seems to be why they're holding on to their young pitchers. If Kopech/Crochet show enough by the end of 2022, it wouldn't shock me to see Giolito moved. 

A cautionary tale though is the supposed OF logjam of 2018, where none of the guys outside of Robert/Jimenez turned out to be MLB players. They need to self scout better this time. 

Edited January 22, 20215 yr by Jack Parkman