Peavy Rejects Sox Offer; Deal Now Dead

[justBLAZE]

My guess would be the PTBNL would be on a list which would allow the Pads to do some extra scouting. There is just no f***ing way Beckham goes and I'd have to think Danks is pretty untouchable as well as Flowers (at least based on what was told to our Soxtalk guys that were at the event with Rick Hahn last night). Hudson I really really like though, I think he'll make a quick impact and projects as that potential 5th starter.

 

The best part is, you trade some of these guys and with a good draft your right back where you were, if not better off, assuming the Sox can hold some of there guys. I also assume Viciedo isn't an option. I'd personally offer up Fields, but I have no idea if the Pads have a need at 3B.

 

Hahn did say, however, that Poreda is the guy being asked about the most.

[Soxfest]

I like it but I do not think it will happen and no one is talking about this but Sox fans off a website report!

Edited May 21, 2009 by Soxfest

[JPN366]

Two days ago we are talking about blowing up the team. Now, we are talking blockbuster move. Something tells me its bogus, though. Why would the Padres do this move now? They can wait and jack up the asking price. I don't buy what that dude was selling.

 

Good point, they could get better value at the end of July.

[maggsmaggs]

I agree, if any other top prospect is involved, then it's a bad deal for the White Sox. I don't think Allen, Flowers, Danks, Beckham, Retherford, Viciedo or Shelby are expendable.

Retherford and Shelby are definitely expendable. Also, C.J. has very low trade value. Both guys could be gone in an instant, but only Shelby has actual value of the two and his poor year is not helping his raw label.

[joejoesox]

Two days ago we are talking about blowing up the team. Now, we are talking blockbuster move. Something tells me its bogus, though. Why would the Padres do this move now? They can wait and jack up the asking price. I don't buy what that dude was selling.

 

I don't buy it yet either, because the source is one person who is just some random guy on a message board like we are

 

But I won't discount it for that reason alone

 

As to your question about why don't they wait, they've been waiting since last year, and they want his contract gone probably as soon as possible

[JPN366]

Retherford and Shelby are definitely expendable. Also, C.J. has very low trade value. Both guys could be gone in an instant, but only Shelby has actual value of the two and his poor year is not helping his raw label.

 

Retherford will be a .300 plus hitter in the majors within three years. He could be a Biggio-esque player for the White Sox for a long time. Shelby's struggled because he hasn't been put in a consistent part of the lineup all year. He's too aggressive for the 1 hole, he's an RBI guy. The Barons lineup would be more productive if it was...

 

Retherford, Shelby, Beckham, Flowers, Allen, Viciedo, Gartrell, Danks, Cook.

Edited May 21, 2009 by JPN366

[almagest]

Sure, it's probably not true, and I'm trying to temper my enthusiasm, but this would be an amazing deal for the Sox. If you have a chance to get a fair deal with a bona fide ace, a Cy Young award winner who just turned 28, you do it. We're also buying low -- not because Peavy is struggling, but because the Padres need to unload him. We have tons of draft picks in this year's draft, and we have a ton of offensive talent in AA, which helps mitigate the losses incurred in trading for Peavy, and we'll have a stacked (theoretically) pitching staff that takes pressure off the young position players coming up in 2010/2011. Also, if the Sox continue to struggle, we can always trade Peavy, and get much closer to max value for him, since we won't *have* to deal him like the Padres do.

[Jordan4life_2007]

The guy is one of the premiere athletes in the minors. Your talking about a gold glove caliber defender and a guy with a very pretty swing who has at least 15-25 HR power and if he learns to turn on the inside pitches, 30 HR power. You dont' give up a guy like that, absolutely not, especially if your already giving up other guys and when you factor in the Sox significant needs for a legit CFer, it makes me want him more.

 

And say what you want about the strikeouts, but Jordan Danks is a far more polished hitter than a Josh Fields or Chris Young. He has a stroke that projects to hit for a higher average and as he develops should be a solid OBP guy as well. Bottom line you are talking about a potential .280-.310, 20-30 HR, 90 RBI, 20-30 SB, .350-.380 OBP, type of guy all while playing a plus CF. Yeah, thats the potential to be one of the best CFer's in the game, maybe our Curtis Granderson. It's not all in the college stats my friend and that is coming from someone thats seen him a few times in person and many more times on TV.

 

 

You're being awfully optimistic there. I'll concede that I haven't seen one minor league baseball game this year (I'm thinking about getting the MILB package), but I practically live at baseballamerica.com and I've never read anything that even remotely suggests that kinda future power. Yes, I realize he's a gifted athlete. But so are guys like Brian Anderson and Chris Young. I can't really comment on his swing. Like I said, I haven't seen any minor league games this year. But a pretty swing means nothing when you K that much. I'm sorry. I've been burned too many times with White Sox prospects in the past. If you can keep him, fine. But if it's ever to be found out that a proven ace could've been had but wasn't because we didn't want to part with Jordan Danks you'll see 2006 Flash Tizzle-like b****ing and moaning from me for the rest of the season.

 

[Getupstretch39]

I don't believe this for a second. At the same time, I'm okay with trading potential for proven any day of the week. Within reason of course. You have a pretty good idea what you are getting with Peavy and if you have to take a chance by trading a few guys that are deemed NOT to be "expendable", I'd take that chance.

[Marky Mark]

You're being awfully optimistic there. I'll concede that I haven't seen one minor league baseball game this year (I'm thinking about getting the MILB package), but I practically live at baseballamerica.com and I've never read anything that even remotely suggests that kinda future power. Yes, I realize he's a gifted athlete. But so are guys like Brian Anderson and Chris Young. I can't really comment on his swing. Like I said, I haven't seen any minor league games this year. But a pretty swing means nothing when you K that much. I'm sorry. I've been burned too many times with White Sox prospects in the past. If you can keep him, fine. But if it's ever to be found out that a proven ace could've been had but wasn't because we didn't want to part with Jordan Danks you'll see 2006 Flash Tizzle-like b****ing and moaning from me for the rest of the season.

 

 

Although they're a lot better than they used to be, BA is usually very based on numbers and not factors like swing and mechanics. One thing that Danks does that probably has prevented him from seeing power in the past is his lack of leg kick.

[R.J.]

The issue that made Peavy so difficult to trade was less about his contract (though yes, it's a monster and even more so in this economic climate) and more that he wasn't willing to wave his NTC to go to the AL. I would think that if he suddenly changed his mind and was willing to accept a trade to any destination that the Red Sox and Yankees would be more than willing to outbid us, even with their rotations sufficiently filled out.

 

So saying the deal is "done" except he needs to wave his NTC is saying a deal is far, far from done.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Although they're a lot better than they used to be, BA is usually very based on numbers and not factors like swing and mechanics. One thing that Danks does that probably has prevented him from seeing power in the past is his lack of leg kick.

 

I used to think that. But I became a subscriber back in February and their premium content goes into much deeper depth than raw numbers.

[justBLAZE]

I'm gonna play the other side and ask; if Jake Peavy does get scratched from his next start, do we then get excited?

[JPN366]

Retherford and Shelby are definitely expendable. Also, C.J. has very low trade value. Both guys could be gone in an instant, but only Shelby has actual value of the two and his poor year is not helping his raw label.

 

Have you seen how hard C.J. hits a ball? After seeing him for a month, I'm thoroughly convinced he will be a major leaguer for a long, long time.

[SoxFan1]

I'm gonna play the other side and ask; if Jake Peavy does get scratched from his next start, do we then get excited?

It'd certainly make things much more interesting.

[Lemon_44]

KW just raised the talent in the minors to adequate in the last year. I can't see him draining 3 top 10 prospects for Peavy. That would undo all the work of the past year. Richard, Poreda, and 2 lower level guys. Beckham, Viciedo, Danks,Allen, Flowers, and probably Shelby won't be included in a deal that already has Richard and Poreda in it. BUt, then again, we are talking about Jake Peavy here. Maybe Broadway gets thrown in there.

[SoxFan562004]

Have you seen how hard C.J. hits a ball? After seeing him for a month, I'm thoroughly convinced he will be a major leaguer for a long, long time.

I agree it's important to have a solid minor league system, it's an awesome thing when it clicks like with the Red Sox, however, the White Sox are a major market team with roughly 40m coming off the books next year. IMO they don't need to hold on to all their prospects, it's more important for them to be strong on internal scouting and know when a player may be overvalued on the open market.

[SoxFan562004]

KW just raised the talent in the minors to adequate in the last year. I can't see him draining 3 top 10 prospects for Peavy. That would undo all the work of the past year. Richard, Poreda, and 2 lower level guys. Beckham, Viciedo, Danks,Allen, Flowers, and probably Shelby won't be included in a deal that already has Richard and Poreda in it. BUt, then again, we are talking about Jake Peavy here. Maybe Broadway gets thrown in there.

he has 4 good picks in 2 weeks

[Baines3]

I don't believe a word of the Peavy thing. It will never happen.

[joejoesox]

I just envisioned Gene Honda saying Jaaaaake PEAVY

 

It's gonna happen

[JPN366]

I agree it's important to have a solid minor league system, it's an awesome thing when it clicks like with the Red Sox, however, the White Sox are a major market team with roughly 40m coming off the books next year. IMO they don't need to hold on to all their prospects, it's more important for them to be strong on internal scouting and know when a player may be overvalued on the open market.

 

That's true, good point. But, in Retherford's case, I wouldn't include him in anything. It would be an Aaron Cunningham like mistake. C.J.'s the next great rags to riches story. Undrafted to perennial all star is what I see in his future.

[SoxFan562004]

I don't believe a word of the Peavy thing. It will never happen.

yeah, it's fun, but with the only source a message board, I'll temper any excitement or anger

[Lemon_44]

That's true, good point. But, in Retherford's case, I wouldn't include him in anything. It would be an Aaron Cunningham like mistake. C.J.'s the next great rags to riches story. Undrafted to perennial all star is what I see in his future.

you may be right,but i can't see Retherford being a deal breaker on KW's part in order to acquire Peavy.

[JPN366]

you may be right,but i can't see Retherford being a deal breaker on KW's part in order to acquire Peavy.

 

 

I know, but since the Padres don't have a Southern League team, I don't think they would ask for Retherford. Now, if they scout for PTBNL's, I would worry.

Edited May 21, 2009 by JPN366

[caulfield12]

Retherford isn't close to being the caliber of a Biggio, that guy's going to be in the Hall of Fame, a lock. He certainly doesn't have the speed.

 

He could make it as a utility player, but he doesn't have the defensive ability of a Nix or Uribe...it's a great story, sure, but nothing more at this point.

 

The major issue with this Peavy deal is it would be insane to take on that kind of a contract, and it runs counter to everything we've ever seen KW do...with that much money being committed to, there's no way we should have to give back more than Poreda/Richard or Poreda/Shelby. If Peavy had a proven track record of success in the AL, that would be one thing. But if he was injured and/or didn't perform well, a player like that taking up 20-25-30% of payroll (possibly), it's just not justifiable.

 

To think Danks or Beckham or other names is pretty crazy.

 

90% of the trade would simply be clearing that contract off the books for the Padres.

 

You could perhaps compare it to the Garcia deal, but he was only on the books for three years. This one would be PROBABLY through 2013, a 4 1/2 year commitment to the fifth highest paid pitcher in baseball. And Ozzie was more personally involved in that 2004 decision, and also getting Sweaty Freddy to agree to a contract extension.

 

It would be the biggest risk KW has ever taken, dwarfing the Wells/Lowe/Fogg for Ritchie move.

Edited May 21, 2009 by caulfield12