SoxBlanco

Make the opt out after four years only if we haven’t made the playoffs at all in the first four years. Has anything like that been done before?

I hear ya. I can’t even tell you how many times I’ve convinced myself to put my phone down, only to pick it back up 7 minutes later.

That’s about as likely as you being serious when, 50 minutes ago, you said you were signing off for a while. ?

Fixed it for you.

So let's summarize the positives so far: 1. Chili's source said that Machado loved the Chicago visit and wanted to sign with the Sox (the same source that had the Herrera scoop). 2. Sox sign two of Machado's closest friends in Alonso and Jay. One of them happens to be the brother of his wife. 3. A Dodgers insider said he talked to one of Manny's former teammates, and that teammate said he thinks Manny will sign with the Sox. 4. Bucket came here and told us to relax because the Sox were VERY LIKELY going to get this done. 5. WSD has confirmed via his sources that the Sox are indeed in a very good spot to sign Manny. 6. We all know that we have the space to spend big, and Y2Jimmy0 recently reminded us that the Sox are not being cheap. 7. raBBit seems very optimistic lately, which is different than how he felt prior to this past week.

If Alonso and Jay were part of actual conversations between Manny's camp and RH (like I think they were), I'm assuming Manny will wait until Jay's deal is finalized before signing.

Do agents tell straight-up specific lies, or is it more general posturing? For example, if we have an offer of 7 for $250 on the table, would Lozano try to get us to increase the offer by saying something like, "Philadelphia has an offer on the table of 7 years for $280. You guys willing to go that high?" (even if no such Philadelphia offer existed) Or is it more of a vague lie, such as, "Philadelphia has you guys beat right now. What can you increase it to?"

I haven't penciled in any wins for anybody. And I wouldn't even make the bet because I'm not confident at all. But gun to my head, I think we land Manny. And with Manny, Eloy, and a hopefully improved Moncada, I think our offense will be much better. The bullpen will definitely be better. Like I said, I'm not confident at all, and I wouldn't be shocked if they won something like 67 games, but gun to my head right now, I'm taking the over.

Gun to my head, I'm taking the over if I had to bet right now.

Agreed. That’s why I asked where he would be starting. I don’t think anybody has answered yet, but will he start in Winston Salem? I can’t see a scenario where he is up in July.

Let's just offer him 10 years for $425 and get it over with. I'm obviously kidding, but remember several weeks ago when we were actually thinking that's what it would take to sign one of the big two?

Manny is probably just waiting for the Jon Jay deal to be finalized before pulling the trigger. Let's get that physical completed and sign Manny tomorrow.

Will Madrigal be starting in Winston Salem?

Exactly. It's all about context. In your football scenario, I would say it is a horrible decision to go for it, even if you convert it. In this Machado situation, there is no way for us to know what Hahn knows right now. So how can you complain and say it's a terrible decision to sign Jay if we don't land Machado? If signing Alonso and Jay didn't increase our chances of Machado at all, then I would say it was a poor decision. But if signing them increased our chances from 30% to 70%, and he still ultimately chose New York, then I would say it was a great move, even though it failed. The problem is that we will never know how much it really increased their chances, so why complain about it?

You seem to be a guy who judges a decision based on the results, as opposed to the information available at the time of the decision. When you are watching football and your team decides to go for it on 4th down, is it automatically a bad decision if they don't convert and a good decision if they do?

If that's the case, then I see your point. I just think that the Sox have money to play with because they have such a small amount of money on the books right now.

But what matters is the yearly payroll. If I walked up to Theo and handed him $20 million right now, it would not increase his chances of landing Harper at all. They would still need to clear some space.

It's not like the $13 million will be on the books each year for the next five years. If it was, then I could see your point. This money will not be a part of their payroll when they are competing, so all it becomes is $13 million less that the team will profit. But it won't make any sort of difference with future signings.

I think the likelihood of that is less than 1%.

It’s not getting hammered. Almost everybody likes the move. It’s just that the negative posts stick out more.

If I'm Manny, I'd rather take $250 million to get to play with my friends as opposed to taking $263 million. That being said, I have no idea how much the extra money would mean to Manny.

...but it will increase to $7 million if the Sox sign Machado.

Hahn: Look Manny, we have a lot of good young talent, and we expect to be really good for a long period of time. Manny: But what about next year? It seems like you guys won't be truly competing until 2020/2021. Hahn: How about you get to play with your two best friends for that first year or two? Manny: Ok, go get Yonder and Jon and I'll sign. Hahn: Sounds good. Give me a few weeks and I'll have them both on the team.

That’s exactly how I feel. It’s pretty funny, but if you look at it from Manny’s perspective, if the offers aren’t nearly as high as you expected, you might as well try getting to play with two of your best friends out of the deal.

Possibly in hindsight. But at the time we traded Sale, don’t you think Theo would have given up Eloy and Cease for Moncada and Kopech?