SoxBlanco

I know some people don't want anything to do with Castellanos because of his defense and the Abreu deal, but I still like him and think he will improve defensively (like he has during his limited time in RF). An offseason of Grandal, Ryu, and Castellanos would still be pretty solid.

They had the highest offer.

So where do we go from here? Cole/Strasburg is a pipe dream, so do we pivot to Ryu? Maybe a Ryu/Keuchel combo?

I'm not suggesting they get cute. I'm also not suggesting they shouldn't offer the most money. I was simply saying that IF the Reds offered slightly more, I think there's a chance we could still land him. I think we should just offer him 6 for $120 and get it over with.

Because we have a better young core and we are in an easier division.

Like raBBit said, the problem is that they aren't going to play chicken with his agent. If his agent comes to them and says that the Reds are offering $5M or $10M more, how can you believe that? I think they put together a solid offer and will wait to see if he accepts it.

If the Reds do get desperate, I wonder if Wheeler would still pick the Sox if the Reds had a slightly higher offer (key word being slightly). If the Sox offer 5 years $105M and the Reds offer 5 years $110M, I still think he might pick the Sox.

Yes. Thank you. I agree 100%.

Yep. I posted something similar last night, but I’d just cave and give him 6 years for $120. Front load it a little bit.

I think I might just suck it up and offer him 6 years for $120M. Just front load it, so we aren’t paying too much at the end (23, 23, 21, 21, 16, 16)

I still think there’s a small chance that our 5 year $90M offer is the highest and his agent is leaking the $100M offer to get us to raise ours. Like I said, a small chance, but it’s possible.

In one universe, we sign Wheeler, Hamels, a bullpen arm, and trade for Joc. In another universe, we sign Wheeler, Hamels, a bullpen arm, and Calhoun. What is the difference in wins between the two teams?

I’ve read the same thing. It was several years ago when I read it, but it said that 10-11 mph difference is ideal.

If everybody here had to choose between not signing Wheeler at all or signing him for 6 years $125M, I bet we’d be pretty split.

Any quick way to see how many of those 42 games we won?

Yeah, the good news is that we have heard from multiple people that Wheeler wants to get a deal finalized early.

Bummer, Bush, and Laz Rivera.

@raBBit and @Tony... How are you guys feeling about Wheeler compared to last week? Do you feel less confident the longer it drags on, or do you still feel like we're gonna get him?

I think our offer is just below $100M and this is an agent leak to try to get us to up the offer.

That makes sense without even using WAR/advanced stats. Say Wheeler makes around 30 starts and we win about 18 of those games (rough estimate). How many of the starts by those four guys did we win last year? Around 11 or 12? Sounds about right.

I posted a similar breakdown last month. Your numbers look pretty good, and that's about what I'm expecting. In fact, I hope you are right on Abreu having only 90 games at 1B. Here are the quick numbers I threw together a couple weeks ago: Catcher: Grandal (90), McCann (50), Collins (22) DH: Collins (60), Abreu (38), Grandal (32), McCann (32) 1B: Abreu (120), Grandal (30), Collins (12)

Brilliant. Wheeler starts to sweat that we might be pivoting toward other pitchers and that our offer, which is currently the highest, might not be available for much longer. Wheeler to the good guys by Thursday. Book it. Time to figure out RF.

Good call. The Wheeler thread has become a Hamels thread, but this should be its own thread.

I actually agree with you here. I think he's the best player on the planet and the best player of all time. I think he is worth the contract. I just think that in 2022, for example, Trout + random 2 WAR player will be less valuable than the combined WAR of Robert and Betts. It does sound ridiculous to say I wouldn't make that trade, but like I said, this is in the hypothetical world where we are ok with a $400M contract. And if we are ok with that, just spend it on Betts. And I'm not trying to say Betts is as good as Trout.

I mean, the argument is probably moot because we aren't handing out a contract that big, so we are living in a hypothetical world. But in that hypothetical world, I think Robert and Betts have a combined value that is higher than Trout and whoever we put in RF (maybe not for next year if Robert struggles out of the gate, but in a couple years when we are competing for a title).