QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
There are a couple of things worth noting here. First...Yes Everett drove in a lot of runs, but he was also in the best RBI spot in our lineup...immediately behind Iguchi and Pods, which meant he was up all the bloody time with RISP. He was in a spot where he should have drove in a ton of runs.
But, let's look at the other side of that token. Thomas, Rowand, and Everett combined only scored 154 runs. That is basically only 20% of our total runs scored last year. Everett in particular only scored 58, and that was hitting directly in front of our best hitter by a long shot. If healthy, over the last 9 years, aside from 2005, Jim Thome has averaged 103 runs scored, and that's without a bopper like Konerko hitting behind him much of the time. That's more than Everett and Thomas combined last year by 26 runs. That's a lot, especially if he winds up hitting in front of PK.
I just keep looking at this offense and really liking what I see. Up and down the list. We've improved the bench. We've added a left handed bat, so that Ozzie can't try his failed All-Righty Santana lineup. And we've got a bunch of people who simply cannot do worse than they did last year.
AJ - last year was his worst season in the big leagues. Crede - last season was a massive disappointment if you look at his monthly numbers. Uribe was massively down last year. Iguchi took several months to adapt to the league, and his power took that long to show up as well. Konerko struggled mightily in the first 2 months. Carl Everett was simply a fill-in in the DH spot. Rowand was a gigantic disappointment. Podsednik was unable to steal the last 2 months of the year.
The only guy in that lineup who I would say "I don't hope he'll do any better than last year, I just hope he'll repeat his numbers" is Dye. That's it, and that's given Dye's dead-like start to the year.
Konerko hit .315 after June 1, which had he done that the first 2 months of the season as well would have put him very very high on the MVP list.
Crede was very good for everything but 2 months of the year, 1 of which was injury plagued. He had the highest OPS in the AL for the month of September when he had his swing working.
Podsednik did great in hitting .290, he just needs to avoid long-term nagging injuries that slow him down. He should have swiped 80+ bases last year with the tear he was on.
Pierzynski suddenly dropped form a .300 hitter to a .250 hitter. Even a Marginal improvement will push him back to .275-.280. No one hit more line drives right at people last year than he did. The numbers say it just has to even out for him.
Anderson may well struggle, but it's almost impossible for him to put up worse numbers than Rowand did last year, given how bad Rowand actually did. On the other hand, Anderson still has a much higher upside, and it's entirely possible that having faced big league pitching and ran with the team through the entire playoffs last year, he'll come in more ready to play than anyone thinks next year.
Uribe still needs to figure out a way to lay off some pitches. Hopefully hitting behind Podsednik and in front of Thome will help, since he'll get a ton more fastballs (do you really want to face Thome with 1st and 3rd?). All he needs is a little bit of patience and a willingness to hit the ball to the RHS.
If Jim Thome is healthy...he will put up massively higher numbers than Everett. And if Thome gets hurt...for a DH, Everett's numbers last year were really so low that a trade for a career AAA guy may very well get enough to replace him. Hell Borchard could almost replace him with those numbers. Everett just wasn't that good at all last year, no matter what %age of our runs he knocked in. All he had to do was put the bat on the ball to knock Podsednik in a lot of times. And by having Everett getting on base so few times last year, Konerko's RBI numbers really were knocked down.
On top of that, the bench is massively upgraded, so hopefully we won't see any more .218 hitting guys starting games as our leadoff hitter very often, and that's worth probably 10-20 runs right there.
This team will be significantly better with the bats next year. Count on it. It just can't get any worse. And if everything were to go right, they can seriously challenge for the best offense in the league.
Wow. You wrote quite a bit there. Thanks for addressing my comments. I'd like to respond to some of your thoughts.
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
Yes Everett drove in a lot of runs, but he was also in the best RBI spot in our lineup...immediately behind Iguchi and Pods, which meant he was up all the bloody time with RISP. He was in a spot where he should have drove in a ton of runs.
It doesn't matter that he was in the best RBI spot. What matters is that him and Frank knocked in over 110 RBI's from that spot which would be a challenging task for Thome even if he could play a full season in perfect health. And a lot of people rag on Everett, but he had the best BA with RISP on our team. Rowand came in second.
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
But, let's look at the other side of that token. Thomas, Rowand, and Everett combined only scored 154 runs. That is basically only 20% of our total runs scored last year. Everett in particular only scored 58, and that was hitting directly in front of our best hitter by a long shot. If healthy, over the last 9 years, aside from 2005, Jim Thome has averaged 103 runs scored, and that's without a bopper like Konerko hitting behind him much of the time. That's more than Everett and Thomas combined last year by 26 runs. That's a lot, especially if he winds up hitting in front of PK.
Ok, if Thome stays healthy and plays a full season putting up over 100 runs that'd be great, we still won't get much more than 50 out of Anderson. Some of our hitters changing slots will have an effect, but you can't really predict how that will go. Don't think you can call this a significant upgrade.
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
AJ - last year was his worst season in the big leagues.
No argument from me here. He should be better.
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
Crede - last season was a massive disappointment if you look at his monthly numbers.
It's fair to say that certain months were massively dissapointing, but no way would I say that about his whole season. He was right at career averages in BA and OBP, going over average with SLG, all while juggling multiple injuries. He is a prime candidate for improvement if the back pain can be controlled. Here's the thing though: Joe was 3rd on the team in BA with RISP, as well as 3rd in HR/AB (not counting Frank). With Ozzie's new lineup, he's now guaranteed the fewest AB's out of any position player. I don't agree with the decision. He's more valuable higher up in the order.
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
The only guy in that lineup who I would say "I don't hope he'll do any better than last year, I just hope he'll repeat his numbers" is Dye. That's it, and that's given Dye's dead-like start to the year.
What? I hope he does better. Not likely, since last year was his best year not playing in KC. He'll probably put up similar numbers this year. Maybe a little better even, I know he had a hernia, not sure if he was dealing with it during the season.
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
Rowand was a gigantic disappointment.
Anderson may well struggle, but it's almost impossible for him to put up worse numbers than Rowand did last year, given how bad Rowand actually did. On the other hand, Anderson still has a much higher upside, and it's entirely possible that having faced big league pitching and ran with the team through the entire playoffs last year, he'll come in more ready to play than anyone thinks next year.
Come on, you're selling Rowand a little short here aren't you? Most everyone knew '04 was an aberration. Even so, he still got on base better than half the team and put up 48 extra base hits. Only two guys on the team had more than that. You're telling me it's almost impossible for Anderson to do worse than that his first full season in the big leagues. Okay...
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
Uribe still needs to figure out a way to lay off some pitches.
We all love Uribe. But you're right. If he's going to bat second, he got to get on base more.
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
On top of that, the bench is massively upgraded, so hopefully we won't see any more .218 hitting guys starting games as our leadoff hitter very often, and that's worth probably 10-20 runs right there.
I do like our bench a lot. Not too big on Mackowiak though. His main value is being able to play so many positions. You'll notice offensively he likes to choose one month to tear the cover off the ball, then hover below mediocrity the rest of the season.
QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Feb 4, 2006 -> 03:19 AM)
This team will be significantly better with the bats next year. Count on it. It just can't get any worse. And if everything were to go right, they can seriously challenge for the best offense in the league.
This is where you lose me. Thome has to stay healthy for a full season for us to land around a run total that was sub-par. It's a lot to ask from a guy who just picked up a bat one month ago. And the addition of Thome catapults us from 9th offense in the AL to 1st? Unless the entire team decides to have career years in '06, that ain't gonna happen.
