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Everything posted by CaliSoxFanViaSWside
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Top 10 Prospects (Trade Value)
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I would consider Schwarber a platoon bat but that's a top of the line platoon bat 17 of 18 HR's against RHP. High OBP against LHP but that can be useful if Moncada and Grandal also take their walks but then the Sox still need someone to get the big hit. Escobar has good stats against LHP so him behind the walk machines would help. He also has 11 HR's against RHP so that would also help. Get them both and the offense looks golden. Might be difficult to pry Schwarber away from the Nats ,however or to have enough prospect capital both both and also relief help. Eloy also hits RHP better but his career splits are almost equal except for accumulated stats which are always higher against RHP because you face them more. Robert hits LHP better but splits are not terrible against RHP either much like Escobar since he still hits HR's against them at a good clip. -
I could see that by looking at his stats in previous minor league seasons. But as with any youngster changes and improvement do happen. Control has always hurt him and it wasn't too bad in Birmingham . Since the promotion to Charlotte it''s jumped up and bit him again in only 4.2 innings so if he wets the bed again in that regard and he's nibbling with AAA hitter then you're correct nothing special . I'll keep an eye on him. I suppose 31 yr. old Nik Turley could get a look.
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Adam Engel Back to the IL - Hamstring
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to DirtySox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Ok let's set the record straight on Goodwin's fielding. Defensive stats shouldn't be use in short doses. I don't know how many games or innings should be played to get an accurate read on these things but I wouldn't consider 2020 a year in which to judge him or this year. The last time he had a significant number of time to play the OF was 2019 with the Angels. Let's look at his Outs ABove Average in 2019 when he was 28 years old ( now 30 ) Outs Above Average 2019 ( this is a range based stats that considers speed and jumps and reads .) CF - 0 which means he was an average CF. RF - 1 slightly above average. LF - 4 above average. Is it possible he has lost a 1/2 step from then til now. Yes. I can't find his sprint speed from 2019 but from this year it's 68 which is pretty good if you compare it to Vaughn's 39. This was probably the only year in which he played enough to get an accurate read on his defense. I have no idea which stats or years Caulfield was talking about when he said he graded out as one of the worst CF's . As usual unless you get stats to back it up I'd ask for them. Lots of people like to use DRS (defensive runs saved) . I'm no expert but I like baseball savants OAA which uses Statcast video evidence. -
Top 10 Prospects (Trade Value)
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Well hard to get a read on that as you well know . Just a handful of games there so far and defensive stats really mean nothing in the short term. I know your only asking for a read but that's in the eyes of the beholder for those who actually watch games. It's like Vaughn . He passes everyone's eye test because you've never seen him look terrible. He hasn't made any errors or booted any grounders out there so he is very competent which has sustained his defensive stats though it's really still too early to say he's good. The lack of speed means lack of range which will eventually lead to his Outs Above Average slowly getting worse, even if he gets good jumps( He doesn't) and reads which is also too early to say. But as of now this is what baseballsavant.com has on Vaughn. Sprint Speed 39 Outs Above Average 21 Jump 10 The lower the number the worse you are and Baseball Savant color codes these and blue is considered poor . His sprint speed is poor at 39 then 21 OAA and 10 Jump are pretty bad. -
I don't know anything about this guy except he's been in the minors since 2013 . He might be a junkballer for all I know. Ofriedy Gomez 21.1 IP , 3 ER, 8 H, 25K 13 BB ERA 1.27 , .98 WHIP. Can't argue with the results so far. Absurdly low number of hits for the innings pitched but a bit too many walks, so that's why his WHIP is still very good. 25 yr . old RHP. 6'3 230lbs. He's only been in 10 games so far , Started 1 game and has 2 saves. Might not be a bad guy to be a long guy or a spot starter or for an inning here and there. OK looked again and saw 16.2 IP were in Birmingham and then he got promoted so probably hasn't pitched enough yet in Charlotte to get a read on him yet against AAA hitters. Too soon to promote him to the bigs.
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Top 10 Prospects (Trade Value)
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I never rank guy because I don't see any of them play. But you should like this @caulfield12 I think Burger is our #1 prospect. He missed so much development time yet somehow after the 4/5 today he is hitting .295 w/ a .920 OPS . I know it's Charlotte but it's still damn impressive for a guy who missed so much time. His numbers are even better on the road. His numbers are decent against RHP but he is bashing LHP . 1.305 OPS. .886 @ home and .959 away. I don't know if that 4/5 is even in those stats yet. Looks like they might be because they got his HR total right. -
Good job today and every day. 4 for 4 in wins and Burger 4/5 2b HR and 2 RBI and a .920 OPS ! He might have catapulted himself to our #1 prospect with his showing so far .
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That's a legit question. The rebuild started in a non Covid year and Covid provided a built in or legit excuses not to spend capital without getting any in since fans were no longer footing their share of Sox expenses. To show this was a problem and the owners were getting squeezed they sent out releases saying how much they lost. What did it ultimately shake out too ? $100M per team in losses ? Then to offset those losses they cut out teams from the minor leagues, they fired employees . I mean you remember all this right ? Finally after all this ,starting 6/25 for the Sox, 100% capacity is being let into G-Rate Field. So we're not exactly talking about Situational Normal All Fucked UP (SNAFU) we're talking about Situation ABNORMAL all Fucked UP. Plus if you thought that was the case why were they so cheap in the off season ? Anyway you can drive yourself crazy thinking about this shit. With Jerry it's always will he or won't he ? The message I get most of the time is nope, he won't. The last 2 times we had to ask that, which was the off season and last season trade deadline. the answer was nope, he wont.
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It's guys like you who make me wonder why I bother looking up all kinds of stats to show Escobar would become the 3rd or 4 th best hitter on the Sox both RH and LH and become our top HR hitter only to have a guy like you call him subpar. Yeah Starling Marte is a very good player and a rental like Escobar But we're dealing with Reinsdorf here. Escobar's prorated salary for 1/2 season will be somewhere around $3.8 M, Marte's will be $6.25 M. Then add in prospect cost+ salary for every deal you make for reliever's or anyone else they get maybe your lucky if the Sox spend another $10M + 3 or 4 prospects given up . If the Sox don't spend even that much you can be sure it was Reinsdorf insisting on teams eating money and those teams will go elsewhere. Then we will hear Hahn say the juice wasn't worth the squeeze but it will be for other teams.
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Madrigal was a key cog in helping the Sox beat LHP and so was Mercedes, then Eloy and Robert. That's why I was probably the 1st one around here to say the Sox need help from both sides of the plate and why I always thought Escobar was perfect. Everyone focused on hey wait he hits LHP better than RHP well guess what the Sox aren't so hot against LHP anymore either without Madrigal and Mercedes in his uber slump . Madrigal had a .576 slugging against LHP Abreu is currently at . 559 Mercedes .524 even after slumping for now over half the season Moncada .421 Tim Anderson is actually doing better against RHP this year and is only .353 Slg. v LHP So when you see Madrigal and the slumbering Mercedes are still 2 of your top 3 big boppers against LHP that should accomplish 3 things :1. Show just about everyone that that the Sox need help against any handed pitcher. 2. Make you realize that Madrigal is a lot bigger piece to the Sox winning than previously thought. 3. Show anyone who was talking about the offense being fine and pointing to Run Differential as proof , that is no longer the case.
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The Offense - Near Term Actions
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I guess I have a curious mind and always wonder if you just look at the BABIP stat , see how high it is and that's it ? Do you look at his LD% against RHP , Barrel rate, in zone hitting , outside zone swinging ,spray charts and other relevant stats to see if there could be any other explanation besides BABIP ? Using CF more, swinging at less pitches outside the zone, K % hitting pitches in the zone better/harder ? I mean sure, just looking at BABIP alone and seeing .378 with a .291 BA vs RHP tells you something. I guess that's too wide of a gap . But I specifically looked for something that might indicate a maturation as a hitter so I looked at how he did in hitters counts . After all that's where most good hitters fatten up their stats. I saw vast improvement from Engel between 2019 and 2020. Now I couldn't find a split for favorable counts unfortunately so this will also include how he did overall not just against RHP. Maybe this is too rudimentary. After all you would expect that when his stats go up and his BABIP goes up his stats in hitters counts will go up too. Just citing BABIP seems lazy to me unless you did a thorough investigation and could find no other improvements. -
The Offense - Near Term Actions
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Eh with shifts and sticky stuff BABIP is over rated.Hit em where they ain't is still the name of the game. But still if you barrel it up and K less you will find holes more often than those who K more and don't hit it hard. I don't know if the shifts on Engel are so radical that he finds more holes because he hits them all over the field with authority. But yea MOOOOOT until/if he returns. -
The Offense - Near Term Actions
CaliSoxFanViaSWside replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Wow we actually agree. The only difference is you said all that without mentioning Vaughn once and I always do to take the brunt of criticism. Also I remember early in the season before Engel got hurt and suggesting Engel get more AB's against RHP due to his year over year improvements in the last 3 years culminating with marked improvement in 2020. I think it was a conversation with @Chicago White Sox and you both thought it was BABIP luck. Nice to see you at least saying he deserved a shot before he got injured again. -
You forgot about the much larger sample size of Vaughn being a 35 wRC+ against RHP. Do I want the other guys to get more of shot. Damn straight I do . AT least they aren't crap in the SSS and they are actually LH against a RHP pitcher. Imagine that, wanting LHB against RHP in modern baseball . Who would have thunk it. ? Oh yea apparently not you and your honesty about using your interpretation of my feelings over actually things I said. Let's give Vaughn all the starts against all RHP every day ! See I can draw baseless conclusions on your posts too.
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What about Goodwin ? wRC+ of 216 so far in a tiny sample size. Vaughn 35 wRC+ in much larger sample size. Mind you I'm not advocating Vaughn sit every night against RHP. Obviously he's needed because of injuries. Just thought I'd clarify that since the reading comprehension level decreases with the need to obscure the facts when I discuss this with others . Thank you for your honesty. Emoji from me.
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SO I'm curious about how you feel about line up optimization when Vaughn plays against RHP ? I know this may not optimize your choice between emoji points and the optimal lineup but let's hear it !
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Development at it's finest ! Progress ? Luck ? Stars aligning ? Voodoo ? Favorable match up ?
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Sure there is . They are named Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Schwarber, Starling Marte and a relief pitcher or 2 .Can't really count on Eloy and Robert getting back to 100% but like Engel he was pretty good in the small amount of time he had. Maybe the Sox slow play Eloy and Robert because of that especially Robert. Eloy's issue wasn't his legs. How much help the Sox decide to go after is up to Scrooge McDuck so I understand your hesitancy about that. But some real winnable games coming up before the All Star break and the Sox could be in the hunt for the best record in the AL if they win a fair share of them. I'll keep prioritizing home field advantage . Not so sure anyone else is including Reinsdorf or the fans. All I keep hearing is Vaughn ,yum yum, development,yum yum ,more important than home field advantage or the World Series and ,yummmy, future teams , decade long dominance, 2nd wave ,mmm mmm good, sustained success . SO yup eating up what Hahn and Reinsdorf are selling with a big ole spoon.
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Leury has been playing on an every day basis and so has Vaughn. Leury 83 wRC+ ,Vaughn 35 wRC+ both against RHP. If his hitting is terrible what would you call Vaughn's. You're banking on upside happening. Vaughn the 2nd best defender is quite the stretch. DO you think he'd be better in CF over Goodwin? Goodwin can actually play CF even if not so well because of his speed. Every day that goes by and Vaughn gets more and more chances ,his Outs Against Average will continue to get lower and lower. That cannot be denied when more and more flyballs will be beyond his grasp due to his lack of speed. You put Goodwin in a corner and he's superior to Vaughn. This Lamb theory about favorable matchups is news to me even though I have seen you say it before. Tell me about it ,make a case. With as many blogs and Sox writers out there I'd love to see anything that supports this favorable matchup theory about Lamb against RHP. If anything you could say Vaughn is being played against favorable RHP matchups and his stats are still terrible against them. Just like you are banking on Vaughn's upside I'll admit I'm banking on Lamb or Goodwin both being better hitters than Vaughn against RHP based on their handedness and the results to date as small as they might be. So yes I really believe what I am saying just as you believe what you are saying. I have a tiny bit of proof in small sample sizes. I'm not sure you have any proof unless you want to count any evidence to can find about Lambs favorable matchups or Vaughn being the 2nd best defender left in the OF or Vaughn's upside against RHP happening relatively soon.
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What's the confusion? I want the best players to play every day this year regardless of future player development because I think this year will be the best chance to win a World Series and winning as many games as possible is the main key in getting home field advantage for the playoffs. Vaughn is great against LHP and is going to play against RHP. I just don't think it should've been as much as you think . But now with Engel injured he can continue to develop as you liked. You on the other hand want to develop Vaughn and possibly sacrifice this year to that end because Vaughn 35 wRC+ vs. RHP is way better than Leury's 83 now the main CF Lamb 123 the now injured Engel's 155 Goodwins 216 So yea I wanted those guys to get a shot not so much at the expense of Vaughn ,but certainly equal time because winning now is important and I don't see a better chance in the future years as I see now. Only time will tell about what I said about not winning a World Series in Vaughns heydays with the Sox.
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Once again you interpreting how I feel rather than going with the multiple posts based on what I actually said. I have said in many posts I am very optimistic about Vaughn's future at 1st base. Not so optimistic as you just said about there being better options against RHP available on the roster now. One of them was eliminated with the Engel injury so Vaughn will get plenty of AB's against RHP. I was never blind to the fact that even without the Engel injury he would continue to get PT against RHP. It's more about winning now . I am in the same boat as everyone else about Vaughn's future and have made enough posts stating that . You don't ever seem real keen about using things I actually said so please stop interpreting my feelings since you can't get it right.
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If your idea of a good case is to use only some things I said and lie about other things I said you better stick to checkers and because lying , being smarmy and only using half truths is pretty pitiful. I said Leury, Goodwin and Lamb and I also said Engel before he was injured. SO since you are so fond of wRC+ lets look at all 4 players in that stat against RHP. Vaughn 35 Leury 83 Lamb 123 Engel 155 Goodwin 216 You lose. Maybe even checkers is too complex for you. Obviously with the injury to Engel and Leury being the main CF now Vaughn will get plenty of time in the OF against RHP and I'm cool with that but not cool with you distorting everything I say. Plus even though you admitted I was right about your lie that I said Vaughn should be sent down but you doubled down by saying it was my idea to use Leury only when clearly I used more than Leury as an example . And even though you posted a bald face lie about what I said and you admitted I was right you didn't take that lie out of your post. How low can you go ? Maybe the limbo is your thing, not checkers and not chess of any kind.
