CaliSoxFanViaSWside

I haven't really tackled the idea that Conforto is custom made for the Sox lineup but lets assume he is. Why do you have him signing for 4/$76M ? He's coming off a terrible year. He was slightly better than Andrew Vaughn. If you strip away all the potential, draft pedigree and just look at numbers Burger, Sheets and Billy Hamilton were worth just as much to the Sox as Vaughn was in a lot less playing time if you just go by fWAR. I understand the hitting LH ,high OPS against RHP ,ok OF'er but what if last year was the kind of years we see going forward? Now I have no idea what it will take to get him. Most publications have him signing a 1 yr. prove it type deal. Prove that you haven't peaked early and are not as bad as you were last year. Teams are massively shifting on Conforto now more than ever before .He's one guy I would be extremely careful with and would approach him perhaps with an incentive laden contract with a base salary of $15M with another $5M in incentives , some which should be tied to PA's that should be easily attainable for a guy getting 500AB and others based on production. Or you can go 1/$18M with a club option for another $20M and a $2M buyout. I know if there is stiff competition for him that would seem ridiculously low but 4/76 is a bit much. Giving out 4 yr high dollar contracts to a guy who's best years could be behind him would just about finish the Sox. It might also get Vaughn traded or put back in the minors. If Reinsdorf is willing to get the payroll close to $200M then I'm thinking he'd also like to keep the payroll flexible from year to year which means contracts at less years when patching holes. If the Sox are going to splurge I agree that a TOR pitcher, maybe even Scherzer would be the choice to splurge on. Everyone else should be on minimal years contracts.

Oh I know was just using this for my own edification and for some more info for you and for those who didn't want to look it up but continue to harass you about it and try to tell you how upset you are and insult you because you refused to kowtow to them specifically SS2K (Mr.Feelings).

Nope UZR150 I looked up was in RF according to fangraphs where I found it under advanced fielding where they break it down by position. DRS is fieldingbible.com and I clicked on the position as RF when i looked up Conforto's numbers and clicked on LF when I looked at Schwarber's. As far as I can tell Conforto didnt play any CF in 2021and hasn't played CF at all since 2019.

I'm the one who originally asked for your source and like a big boy I looked it up myself. Mr . Feelings is doing what he always does. All commenters had to do is their own work . That being said Schwarber played LF and Conforto played RF so you can't project what Schwarber would do in RF . OAA has Schwarber a -6 in LF and Conforto a +1. OAA is Outs Above Average. Edge Conforto by a large margin DRS : Schwarber -5 , Conforto -4 Defensive Runs Saved . Edge Conforto. Usally bad OF's get worse the more innings they play so if Schwarber had as many innings as Conforto he is likely slightly worse than the -5. UZR150 : Schwarber - 6.3 ,Conforto -6.8. Edge Schwarber but again the innings could make a difference. Schwarber played 724 innings in LF, Conforto 956 in RF Conforto had the best 3 yrs of his career from 2017-2019 Schwarbers best 3 yrs are slightly more recent 2018 ,19,21 Conforto's best years are better than Schwarbers best years. Schwarber worst year with over 450PA was 2017. Conforto's worst season 2021.

I'm not a sage when it comes to determining player value. I'd like to know from anyone better at it what they think of the Value section at the very bottom of a player's page on Fangraphs under the Dollars portion. Dollars is described as "WAR converted to dollars based on what a player would make in Free Agency". I assume the number is the worth in millions. According to that info here is what I saw for the 2021 season. Conforto: $6.5 which is the worst of his career. Also the worst defense of his career. RAR Runs Above Replacement (batting + base running + fielding + positional + replacement) 8.1 Vaughn: $2.4 3.0 RAR 127 games, 469 PA Burger $2.5 RAR 3.1 . 15 games, 42 PA Sheets: $3.4 , 4.2 RAR , 54 games ,179 PA Eloy Jimenez: $1.9 , RAR 2.4 , 55 games 231 PA. Eloy had a .8 WAR in his 1st 13 games back after injury and finished the season at .2. Those last 32 games hurt the Sox bad. Edited to include him. Madrigal : $10.7 All positive numbers across the board for batting, base running, and fielding. 13.7 RAR Scwarber: $24.5 30.6 RAR basically his hitting value more than cancelled out his negative values in other things but his fielding didn't look so terrible in LF. Much like Vaughn will always be negative but negative passable . RF for both highly questionable. Escobar : $23.9 29.8 RAR all positive numbers, 3rd best of his career all coming in his last 3 full season, not counting Covid year. Segura: $19.8 24.6 RAR 5th highest value of his career which shows you his consistency. Gavin Lux : $8.3 10.3 RAR Tony Kemp: $21.7 RAR 27.1 No history of anything remotely close to these numbers. Madrigal size and 30 yo. Bryan Reynolds : $43.8 , RAR 54.6 to give you some perspective we have.. Bryce Harper : $53.0 , RAR 66.1

Can you enlighten us to which defensive metric you used to determine this ? Defensive stats are a mishmash where one can draw multiple conclusions from UZR,DRS and OAA. Schwarber threw out a lot of base runners and looks OK on paper because of that, the same way Adam Eaton once did. Also kicking around a few hits will hurt bad in a SSS, while if you don't kick them and catch all the fly balls you get near can hide the fact you get poor reads and jumps and have no range. Someone with good speed and a good jump may not take the best routes because he's off with the crack of the bat and may have to adjust his route on the way. Grading OF defense is difficult. I prefer a good range factor and OAA when it comes to defense.

The Dodgers are loaded with LH position players with varying degrees of worth and versatility Lux, Beaty, McKinstry, Outman (AA), Carson Taylor (Bats: S, A+) One thing I notice about the Dodgers and I have no idea if it's part of their philosophy or if it's just my imagination, they seem to draft a lot of LH position players. To me this makes a lot of sense . With so many RH pitchers you are likely to get more value in later round draft picks who are LH. They adjust to the minors quicker and put up better numbers facing RHP.

Well there are people who aren't expecting much of a return for Kimbrel. There are those who think that getting the whole salary off the books is just as important which could've been accomplished by declining his option. If you get the whole salary off the books and get table scraps some see it as a win. If you trade him for equal salary it's a loss if you don't get a good fit when there are other needs. I think the Sox end up making a bigger trade and add pieces to the Kimbrel trade . As an example maybe it's true the Dodgers want him . Who from the Dodgers could be a good fit for the Sox. ? Gavin Lux : LH, turned 24 yesterday. Primarily a SS/2B who played all 3 OF positions and 3B with a good walk rate. Might be slated to be the new Chris Taylor with the Dodgers. He's yet to find his stride as a hitter . He was a 1st round pick in 2016. 5 yrs of eligibility left. Matt Beaty : LH,1B,3B,LF,RF,29 in April 120games, 234 PA , 7 HR 114wRC+ .8 fWAR 1MILB option Zach McKinstry : LH, 26, played RF,2nd, LF, 3rd in 60 games, -.5fWAR ,1MiLB option There are more of course but those 3 offer a variety of positions and all bat LH.

Ha just proves you think about the Cubs a lot more than I do.

I've thought all along that Rodon is the starting pitcher most likely to end up on the Sox.

It seems to me that anyone who has signed early is getting more then expected. Verlander, Graveman, Matz , Loup, DeSclafani and Syndergaard all higher than Fangraphs estimates.

Cali-claps for you.

I know he looked bad in the AFL . High k and free swinging.

Cespedes is #2 from the midseason rankings at Future Sox but it's apparent some of that was based on Paddy calling him MLB ready and the dearth of good prospects in the organization now but he did have a nice 1st year adjusting to the states and from his time away from playing.. Yolbert went up from 27 to 17 and has some helium based on his good showing in the AFL.

I look at it as a non question mark for 2 question marks

I'm honestly surprised I haven't seen Nimmo's name once so far when talking about trades . It's his last year before he becomes a free agent perhaps that's why. He also can't ever seem to play over 100 games. Had a real nice fWar for only 92 games. Guess they will hold onto him unless it becomes apparent they aren't competing at the trade deadline. Can we offer Cespedes and Yolbert Sanchez and see if they nibble ?

@Flash deserves lots of credit for sticking his neck out as much as he did on Burnes. It isn't easy taking heat on here when you run contrary to popular opinion. There are some people who can do it with grace. I am not one of them.

It was one of the names I suggested before the deadline last year and everyone told me Seattle probably wouldn't trade him. Then they traded him to Houston and pissed off the Mariner players.

How do you know the trade package was made up ? You don't find it odd that both Madrigal and Heuer were used to get Kimbrel ? Seems to me they've been shopping both of those guys for a while.

Who knows, I mean if Vaughn and Crochet + got it done is that better than what the Sox got for Sale? I guess we will find out in another 5+ years or so.

Re-read the thread , you'll see. It's in there somewhere. I think James Fox said it had legs. Sure it made no sense if the Sox didn't offer enough. There's no guarantee Milwaukee would've traded Burnes even if offered a better package but if Madrigal , Heuer + was the best the Sox could do then it was never going to happen.

The same thing was said last year when there was all the speculation about trading for Corbin Burnes. That rumor was real but the Sox didn't make Vaughn , Kopech or Crochet available even though Burnes fit the window better since he already had MLB innings under his belt and it was a fair assumption that he was capable of close to 150 IP based on the previous years workloads. But no one wanted to trade them .Only a few were bold enough to accept the scorn of Soxtalk by suggesting trading any of those guys for Burnes. I suggested Vaughn and Crochet . End result was we missed out of the NL Cy Young winner and a possible Championship. Also a package eerily similar to what was supposedly offered for Burnes was used to trade for Kimbrel and Hernandez neither of whom should be playing for the Sox in 2022. The Sox will probably end up with very little for trading Madrigal, Heuer and Pilkington except for making the Sox worse rather than having an excellent shot at the World Series. Burnes only got a chance to pitch 1 game in the playoffs, 6 scoreless innings in a win against eventual World Series Champ Atlanta Braves who actually improved their team with trades at the deadline. The Sox are now in the same position as last year. Sure Vaughn , Kopech and Crochet are still here and 1 year closer to reaching their full potential but neither one is a lock for immediate success. In case anyone hasn't noticed but the window is wide open now , as it was last year. All that being said I don't want them to trade for anyone if the trade deadline results are what to expect.

That's really fucking the RF defense though. Sheets and Vaughn in RF might be as bad or worse as putting Schwarber in RF.

Sheets was .848 in his 191 PA sample size combining regular season and playoffs. You never know if .850 is a possibility.

If the numbers you posted on the image are to be believed Cease is behind Giolito and Lynn which would make him 3rd. You said 2nd.