CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:46 AM) I think this is something yet to be determined. The Sox switched philosophies with both drafting and handling the MLB roster when he took over. He has received good value for most of his trades and not sacrificed much. The past few drafts are producing MLB talent and provided enough depth to trade for MLB talent. That is really what the minors are for, either being MLB talent or acquiring it yet. The fact that he doesn't have the budget to take risky chances on long term deals is not his fault. He needs to play with the budget he gets. I think the short term deals for FA combined with the minors producing talent (or acquiring it) is the path to MLB success. RH has only had the job a few years and I like the philosophy he is following. It is not a quick process and many people aren't satisfied with the short term results but I think in hte long term it will payoff. Samardzija blew up Frazier and Lawrie are only 2 years . Shark was 1 year. Hahn didn't make those trades and FA signings thinking he wouldn't compete. He made them to compete in the short term . If he was playing the long term game and I can admit he still might be then where's the minor league depth ? You like his philosophy. I don't even see a philosophy. We aren't satisfied with the short term results because he's been playing the short term game and losing badly mainly because he can't finish what he started and what he started ends quickly with those traded for gone in 1 or 2 years.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 09:33 AM) Call me crazy but I'm not ready to give up on Avi yet. Cespedes is very inconsistent on offense and may become complacent with a big contract. I would not be surprised at all to see Avi put up numbers similar or better than Cespedes did in 2013 or 2014. Obviously there are still big differences between their defense and base running abilities but if Avi can improve even marginally in both I think he has a shot to be a useful player this year. I was as high on Avi as anyone on this board . Ask Eminor about that . But I've moved on. That's not to say I still don't think he's valueless but as of this moment for a team wanting to compete he is valueless. Sports illustrated did an article about Cespedes weighing his last 3 seasons on a 5/4/3 scale . Most of the weight given to last season but only a little more than 2014 and 2014 a little more than 2013. Now 2013 and 2014 are cited as his "inconsistent" years so overall they are weighted more than just his 1 great year. Then they project his value in bWAR for the coming years and what those years would be worth money wise. For someone who is supposedly very inconsistent they said for the 1st 3 years he's projected to be worth $84M , another $23.3 M in the 4th year and $20.3M in a fifth year. In order to get those highly productive 1st 3 years it's been standard practice to pay for a few years where he declines . You just have to hope it isn't a precipitous decline. http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/01/05/whats-he-...des-free-agency

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:30 AM) No one is going to go on the record except in the most extraordinary of situations. We both know that. But it is out there, and it is something that needs to be investigated and considered when deciding to spend 8 or 9 figures on a guy. Then it's just backlash speculative bulls*** not based on anything concrete against a guy who many are envious. Yes it's one of many things to be investigated. But when it get's more attention than is warranted and is cited as if its a fact it's irresponsible . There's one main reason that the Sox won't go longer term and it's that unless you are the Yankees Dodgers Red Sox it is fiscally irresponsible to hand out longer term contracts that pay for declining years. That has been apparent for years that those deals invariably becomes albatrosses to teams that don't have deep pockets. Unfortunately those contracts have been standard practice in MLB for years but the Sox still play the game hoping against hope and getting all our hopes up by playing the game and coming up short most of the time. When they do play the game and actually sign a FA they end up losing because the 2nd tier guys are almost always ore risky than the 1st tier guys Less financially volatile but more volatile as far as being productive on the field. In the last 2 years the Sox have given up 2 draft choices for free agents and possible a third if Desmond becomes a reality. Also 4 minor leaguers last year and 5 this year . Add up all that and it's 11 players from the minors and possibly 12 . Everyone says oh they will never be impact players . Yet Semien is already in the top 10 MLB SS according to MLB network analysis . Who knows who else may become valuable . Shark Lawrie and Frazier , that's 5 years total on the MLB field for 9 minor leaguers and 2 draft choices. I thought recently Hahn spoke of sustained success . How are they going to do that if they have to keep restocking the farm and getting outbid for FA difference makers ? Dumpster diving is pure luck. Relying on the few high end minor leaguers is highly speculative that they will make it. The only way to win the minor league game is have a deep system where more players can surprise you with unexpected development to offset those who disappoint you. The system is even less deep than it was now. In 2 years we start all over again because Melky, Lawrie Frazier are gone. Or we don't compete in those 2 years and trade off pieces. Either way it's starting over. Hahn has been a colossal failure . Getting Abreu and signing Sale Eaton Quintana to great deals doesn' t come close to all the failed money poured into unproductive FA's and prospects traded off. Those are a lot of players and years of control . So far it's his legacy that being below .500 or investing enough to be .500 and having no farm system is about what to expect.

QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 03:45 AM) of course hawk loves the move. fraizer is his type of TWTW guy. At least this time he got what Hawk said about Avi right instead of naming Hawk as saying it would make Avi a 30/30 guy. I know you said that was a joke or sarcasm but I always know sarcasm when I see it and laugh when others can't see it but attributing Hawk as saying something doesn't have a hint of joking or sarcasm in it. I mean maybe in your mind it does but it was not the least bit apparent.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 08:09 AM) I would also guess the work ethic stories also go somewhere towards projecting how soon and severe his eventual decline will be coming. What work ethic stories ? Is there one named source who says anything disparaging about his work ethic ? Because I can name Terry Collins as on record saying his game preparation is great. Would you be enlisting the help of a sport psychologist to be prepared mentally to do your best if you were a slacker ? All this stuff keeps getting brought up . It's all innuendo unless you can give me a link to someone going on record , not some unnamed scout or executive or yourself just throwing it out there as if it's fact.

QUOTE (Saufley @ Jan 22, 2016 -> 05:57 AM) With all the stuff coming out wondering if Cespedes would be a clubhouse cancer? What stuff ? Terry Collins has nothing but good things to say about him. Granted he's biased because Cespedes kicked ass for the Mets but he says his game preparation is great. Remember the thread about Abreu ? There was backlash against him too. Maybe not personality stuff but about his bat speed . I keep seeing all this stuff about Cespedes 2013 and 2014 and OMG what if he hit's like that again. Those years would only make him the 2nd best run producer on the Sox .People keep citing his OBP like he's a damn leadoff hitter. The guy is a clean up hitter . His main job is to clean up the bases of runners. 2013 was his 2nd year in the league . Ever heard of a sophomore slump ? Even Abreu didn't hit as well his 2nd year. And I'll take his 2014 too. With RISP .309 BA, .356 OBP , .522 SLG , .879 OPS 100 RBI's . That's bad all of a sudden ? For the last 2 years he's had more value than Abreu . Yet I continue to see how Cespedes isn't all that good. The Sox still don't have one player who can put up both good offensive and defensive numbers. Not a single one. Yet Cespedes keeps getting bad mouthed. Maybe it's because he's supposed to be humble that he got such a wonderful opportunity to play in the US after being in Cuba . Be like Jose Abreu. Say all the right things. Instead he's a little flamboyant and he's getting s*** for it. I know we are all leery after so many FA failures but Cespedes is a horse of a different color . There's no way he won't produce. He goes out of his way to prepare to be great. Yes he shouldn't smoke and shouldn't play as much golf as he does. As he ages that stuff will catch up to him. But who can really blame him for living life on his own terms ? He's enjoying his wealth and freedom. Those just aren't red flags to me .

Good news . Was hoping he'd re-sign.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 21, 2016 -> 05:12 AM) Just putting it in perspective...kind of pathetic that we're going to be fortunate to come out of this with Austin Jackson after all the hype and build-up. According to Harrelson, the presence of Frazier in the line-up alone will make Avi a 30-30 threat again. Hawk never said that . He said it would take " a lot of heat " off Avi. Why do people make things up ?

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 19, 2016 -> 02:40 PM) Now they have 83 pitchers on their active roster. Nice. More for Brandon McCarthy to be pissed off about.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 20, 2016 -> 07:06 PM) Why do you keep mentioning Lawrie as an outfielder? Thinking "just a bit outside " the box .

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jan 20, 2016 -> 06:58 PM) If the Sox miss out on Cespedes, at this point, I'm ready to convince myself that Fowler at 3/40 is fine. I would be also but the middle of the order would still be a concern . No ones expressed too much concern about Frazier batting 4th because he doesn't cost anything close to what Cespedes will get but that's my biggest worry without Cespedes. Of course Abreu could get 120 RBI's with Fowler but I'd still prefer the guy who can drive in runs. That was what hurt so much last year . Get guys on and no one drove them in time and time again.

QUOTE (Tony @ Jan 20, 2016 -> 06:46 PM) There have been some reports out there as well about some executives feel like 2015 was a true outlier season for Cespedes and your classic free agent push, and given his career numbers I seem to agree with that. Free agency is always not the optimal route to go, but I feel like with Cespedes, you will absolutely be paying for past performances and not anything close to what he is actually going to give you. Fowler has been a fairly consistent 2 WAR player the last 5 years and should cost as you said, nearly 70 million dollars less than Cespedes, who I'm just not sold on. Just personal preference, and I know I'm in the minority. I will also be excited if Cespedes does join the Sox, but I think it's playing with fire. You should go check Cespedes numbers with RISP . Every year they have been very good. The guy knows how to hit with runners in scoring position no matter what his OBP has been.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 20, 2016 -> 10:46 AM) I wish all of this excitement was over a better player. Yea those 6.5 WAR players suck. When do we go after the 8+ WAR guys ?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 19, 2016 -> 01:24 PM) Last year after the plethora of moves, I bought more game tickets than usual to show my support. As of right now, I need a reason to buy tickets to games in advance But you don't like Cespedes . Would it help if I gave you my personal guarantee that he won't be a bust if he comes here ? I believe that strongly in him. He was always my 1st choice of the big 3 because of his AL experience , his defense and no matter how you want to look at his hitting , every year he's been awesome with RISP . He sees a sports psychologist to prepare himself to do well in those situations and apparently it's been working very well. Heyward is 26 signed an 8 year contract, Upton 28 signed a 6 year contract, Cespedes is 30 so a 4 year contract logically follows though I know free agency is never logical. He'll be Dick Allen all over again , smoking included .

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Jan 19, 2016 -> 07:26 PM) Real a tale of two games. The third has been a tough watch. National broadcaster calls Danault "Dano" every time. Isn't that how you pronounce it phonetically just with the accent on the 2nd syllable since its a French name ?

QUOTE (AustinIllini @ Jan 19, 2016 -> 06:49 PM) Kane with his career high for goals in a season. Unreal. I'm pretty sure he's very close to a 50 goal pace.

QUOTE (SoCalSox @ Jan 18, 2016 -> 07:42 PM) They just traded away 5 prospects for two players with two years of control. Two of those players were in their top 10. How is that not hurting their future? Actually 3 players were in the top 10 as of mid season 2015 based on Future Sox rankings. Montas 3, Micah Johnson 5 and Trayce Thompson was 10.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Jan 18, 2016 -> 02:55 PM) OK, let's look at it this way: A. Jackson 5 years with Detroit: .277 .342 .413 .755 Cespedes 3 years with Oakland: .262 .318 .470 .788 Cespedes 1 year with D. Tigers: .293 .323 .506 .829 Cespedes 1 year with Red Sox: .269 .296 .423 .719 I'm simply wondering if their respective performances, last season, might have been outliers. Of course, Cespedes has more raw power, but you have to wonder if he is really as good as those numbers with the Mets suggests. Cespedes has played 4 full seasons . To be more correct 2.5 with Oakland, .5 year with the Tigers, .5 with Boston, .5 with the Mets. Cespedes may not be a great hitter if you look at his overall numbers and I can also agree his time with the Mets could be called an outlier. However what cannot be called an outlier is through all 4 years the way he hits with RISP . Those numbers are great. The stats with RISP with the Mets was not an outlier because he has done it every year.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jan 18, 2016 -> 07:02 PM) I'll be honest...I would have been a bit annoyed had the Sox done this. Not a terrible contract . Brings him through his age 33 season. That would be the equivalent of Cespedes signing a 4 year deal.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Jan 18, 2016 -> 11:31 AM) Just wondering the pulse of the board. NOTE!! THIS ISN'T WHO YOU WANT, IT'S WHO YOU THINK JERRY, RICK, AND KENNY GO WITH! I personally have some odd suspicion it will be Austin Jackson. It's such a White Sox move. They'll say not giving up a pick keeps the rebuilding of the farm going, that price was too much on the big guys, etc. And that a trade couldn't happen to sacrifice any more players. Plus Jackson can play all positons, etc. etc. etc. Not that there's a second guess but the rest of my order is: Cespedes, Garcia, Fowler, Trade, The field, Other FA, Upton. I don't honestly have a clue . I can be shocked by a totally unexpected development or they can miss out on everyone and it ends up Avi again.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 18, 2016 -> 09:29 AM) Were you devastated when they traded Montas? I remember when I said they should trade him for the right return you said he was going to be the right-handed Chris Sale. Let's not put words in my mouth. I said I liked him as a future starter instead of a reliever like you and his repertoire was like Chris Sale's meaning his high 90's heat and a devastating slider. All he needed to get down was control of his change up and that was Sales 3rd pitch also. I'm too old to be devastated when the Sox make a trade. I like to see the upside to prospects rather than their downside . I don't think that's a crime. I hope he has success on the ML level whether as a starter or reliever. Just because I champion a prospects upside doesn't mean I fall in love with them .And I think it's rather childish to ask if I was devastated . If you're going to say I said something please try to use exactly what I posted rather than innuendo intended to make me appear unknowledgeable . Also the post was about the Sox not trading a top prospect and I pretty sure most would agree anyone in the top 3 and even the top 5 are top prospects. Was Montas not a top prospect in your view ? Aren't you also a writer for Future Sox who contributed to mid season rankings of prospects ?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 18, 2016 -> 07:33 AM) Both have huge red flags IMO, and neither guy is someone to trust with a long-term deal Despite all the supposed "red flags " about Cespedes the guy has been money in the bank every one of his 4 years in the league with RISP. This cannot be disputed in any way shape or form. What else can you want from a cleanup hitter ?

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 18, 2016 -> 07:26 AM) Interesting how this keeps coming up... https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/latest-news-an...pedes/162175438 "It's also worth noting that anyone I have talked with in Detroit, Boston and Oakland, as well as the Mets (all teams that he's played for), I can't find anyone who thinks it would be wise to give him a long-term contract. They all love him as a hitter, but worry about what an aging, comfortable, complacent Cespedes might look like, especially in the National League without the designated hitter." This is funny . Was it wise to give Davis what he got ? Ian Kennedy ? It isn't wise to give many free agents long term contracts however that is what teams have been doing for years. Now all of a sudden everyone realizes its not fiscally responsible ?

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 17, 2016 -> 11:48 PM) It's a terrible offseason when only improve 3 positions while trading away none of the teams top prospects. I knew this would be entertaining. I'm pretty sure Frankie Montas was a top prospect unless you think his #3 rank by Future Sox in midseason 2015 is a bad ranking. Micah Johnson was also at #5 in those same rankings. Also in IMO Trayce Thompson is probably what the Sox need right now as a 4th OF since as of this moment none of the Sox OF is considered good defensively and can be used as a defensive replacement . He also could have started at some point if his upside is realized. He was also rated #10 in mid-season 2015 by future Sox. I think anyone in the top 5 has to be considered a top prospect.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Jan 17, 2016 -> 11:02 PM) Cespedes before this year: Never hit 30 HR Was an overall negative defensive WAR player Was coming off seasons w/ OPS of 736 & 751 Had staggering OBP's of .294 & .301 (people say Frazier's OBP sucks??) And now people are freaking out that some other team is going to pay him 100+ million dollars to age and decline. If we are gonna get an outfielder, go for broke at Upton, or sign Jackson for defense in RF and sign Desmond on a 1-2yr deal to upgrade the offense at SS. We can twist the numbers any way we want to. Since you're talking about 2013 and 2014 . I'd say 2013 is the sophomore slump since it was since 2nd year in the league. However with runners in scoring position (RISP) he hit .312 , .352 OBP , .558 SLG, and .921 OPS 2014 he had 100 RBI so despite what you say about his overall numbers the guy hit .309, .356 OBP , .522 SLG , and .879 OPS all with RISP. For his career even though you think 2 of his years of his 4 in the league were bad his career numbers with RISP are .305 BA ,.365 OBP, .517 SLG , and .881 OPS. Isn't that exactly what you would want in a cleanup hitter ?