CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (shipps @ Dec 23, 2015 -> 10:38 AM) Just realized I created a thread that was pretty much the same as another thread, just worded differently. I am bored, sorry. I saw this thread and was like WTf isn't this my thread about the Sox fallback options in case they don't get one of the Big 3 ?

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Dec 23, 2015 -> 03:55 AM) Here are the terms of Garza's deal 2016, 2017 - $12.5 million per ($2 million deferred due annually on 12/15 between 2018 and 2021 2018 - $13 million vesting option (must make 110 starts between 2014 and 2017, throw 115 IP in 2017 and not be on the DL at the end of 2017) 2018 - $5 million team option (if he doesn't meet the requirements for the vesting option the team holds a $5 million option, there is no buyout) 2018 - $1 million team option (if he spends more than 130 days on the DL in a 183 day window) Bonus - $.5 million each year he makes 30 starts and throws 190 IP Ok so what does all that mean ? He's made 52 starts in 2 years with 2 years left so he probably doesn't reach 110 starts so he becomes a free agent if any one of those 3 requirements are not met right ? Or does that mean if the holder of the contract wants he can be either a free agent or resigned for 2018 for $5M at the team's digression?

QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Dec 22, 2015 -> 02:28 PM) Thanks for the numbers...I wouldn't touch that either, too many years to start with... It's actually just 2 years 2016 and 2017. Free agent 2018 although I'm not sure what this means in 2018 : $13M Vesting Option $5m team option if vesting terms not met. Maybe means a 5M dollar buyout for 2018. So it's just 2 years for 2 years when it comes down to it and the money is basically equal (Danks 15.75 + LaRoche 13 =28.75M vs. 2 years of Garza for 25 and 5M buyout ? (seems high for a buyout) =30M. It reduces the Sox roster by one DH with a team full of DH's in waiting (Melky, Abreu, Avi) It frees up the salary by about $15M this year and adds more to next year and the buyout money the year after and balances the rotation a bit. The worry is can Garza bounce back or is Danks that much better ? I think the savings this year and the open roster spot isn't too bad of a deal. Garza has had arm problems in the past and was on the DL last year with shoulder tendinitis. Of course the Sox can eat LaRoche's contract or find a taker and pay most of it. Cleveland dumped Chris Johnson and his $17M contract. I am not buying a LaRoche bounce back to the point that he still isn't a liability and the roster could use the flexibility to add a more athletic player .Just too many DH's on the team for the Sox to keep a pretty one dimensional guy like LaRoche. Easiest solution is just eat LaRoche contract instead of worrying about Garza's arm falling off in the next few years or spending significant time on the DL. At least Danks goes out there every 5th day.

QUOTE (Markbilliards @ Dec 23, 2015 -> 12:44 AM) Last year he played at Petco. Even against superior pitching in the AL, I don't think you lose much of last year's stats, if anything in that transition. That's what worries me. Big ballpark , lots of room for hits and he bats .250 with the lowest OBP of his career ,which can easily translate to .220-230 in the AL . Walking just doesn't bring excitement, big hits do. I just have one eye on what will excite the fans and get them into the ball park. I know Upton has a lot of talent I just don't know how it will play in the AL and with the other 2 it's not a concern.

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Dec 22, 2015 -> 08:33 PM) I think Gordon and Cespedes bring a lot of intangibles to the lineup, just in different ways. Cespedes as power hitting destroyer of world's and Gordon as a guy who keeps rally's going. Both are winners and I'd be fine with either one but would prefer Cespedes. Upton is a bum who draws a few walks for bad teams. If we're talking about which one worries me the most it is Upton because of being a career NLer . Gordon and Cespedes know the AL. The Sox really don't need another guy having to adjust to the superior league and hitting way below career norms. They need a guy who can be a hit from day one. Light the fire , have people dancing in the aisles talking about our awesome pair of Cuban powerhouses. Our own Bash Brothers. Pito and La Potencia !

QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Dec 22, 2015 -> 08:30 PM) I've noticed over the last two seasons that he is quite good at hitting baseballs. He's probably right up there with swings out of the zone too. He's good in that he wants to drive guys home but that got exploited a bit his 2nd year. He needs to be more patient especially if the lineup gets much stronger around him . Take a lesson from the Big Hurt , make the pitchers come to you .

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 22, 2015 -> 07:43 PM) Jermaine Dye's age 32 season is not a reason to go out and sign Gordon. If you're looking at Gordon for 5 years, you are looking at his 32-36 age seasons. Do you really think he is going to be worth the money through the length of that contract? Gordon is an excellent player now, but I fear the last few years of that deal will be a financial burden to the organization because it's rare to see players be able to maintain their level of play into those years. Look at Jimmy Rollins, he'd be an example of a player who is a shell of his former self entering his mid 30's. I'm not arguing that Gordon is a bad pickup, his OBP would look amazing in the Sox lineup. I'd would rather have Upton for the remaining prime years of his career plus his twilight years than Gordon who has the chance to start declining fairly soon. I wasn't basing an argument for Gordon on Dye I was pretty much just reminiscing and saw Dye was 32 with that monster year. If anything ,with how bad Dye's fielding fell off, my reminiscing was more of a case against Gordon. However ,the Fangraphs article someone posted earlier comparing Gordon to players of similar stats did a good job of painting a more optimistic outlook. He has hsi pluses and minus like any of the big 3 . Budget wise he's a much better fit than the other 2 precisely because of his age. His work ethic is beyond compare if you read any of the stuff about how Rusty Kuntz worked with him to convert him from a 3rd baseman to an OF. Made me want to hire Kuntz for Avi. Anyway he's a winner and would bring that work ethic and winning attitude. Not sure if the other guys have that. I've wanted Cespedes because he's just put teams on his back and has elite power and is a pretty good OF according to DRS. My eye test tells me a slightly different story but that's neither here nor there. He just doesn't have the track record of the other 2 because of his late entry into the Majors. But imagine if that was the real Cespedes last year . His 4th year in the bigs ,now accustomed to everything . He has the chance to be a monster the most out of the 3. I want a monster .

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 22, 2015 -> 07:34 PM) Hoping for one of those 3rd period Dallas meltdowns. Ok maybe a 3rd period Hawks meltdown. Blah.

Hoping for one of those 3rd period Dallas meltdowns.

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 22, 2015 -> 02:28 PM) Really hope this is just the Sox trying to get either Cespedes or Upton's price down. Gordon is a great player, but he is not the player I want the Sox to sign. His age is cause enough for concern for me. Would it help to know Jermaine Dye had the best year of his career with the Sox at age 32 ? I was just looking at Dye's stats from age 32 on . He had some of his best years with the Sox. One of the few guys who was hurt a lot then gets to us and gets healthy and hits more HR for the Sox then he ever had before. We always hear " this guy will hit more HR at the Cell "but we never see it actually happen very much. Even in his last year in the majors at age 35 he hit 27 HRs and a .793 OPS and .340 OBP. Dye had 44 HR's in age 32 season. , 120 RBI , 1.006 OPS, .386 OBP, .662 SLG. , OPS+ 151 Dude could still hit when he retired ( or nobody wanted him). His fielding fell of a cliff if I remember it right . Lost a couple of steps at 33 rebounded a little at 34 but still bad ,then totally lost it a lot more at 35.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 10:42 AM) I think you overestimate how much money they would have left. Yea I didn't want to dash hopes but maybe with Gordon it's possible to get another starting pitcher but not a SP and another FA OF. And even with Gordon I wouldn't expect anything huge, just insurance with a starting pitcher.

QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 10:38 AM) A little nervous with Gordon coming off an injury that caused him to miss significant time and his age of 32. Would prefer Upton or Cespedes for the offensive impact, BUT if you could get Gordon on a reduced price and then have some $ to go after either a 2nd outfielder like Parra or Jackson, and then have some $ left for a RHP, then you might have something... That's what I've been saying. The Sox search for another RH starter has all but been forgotten at Soxtalk and the starting pitching depth is bad now. No matter who the Sox get to play the OF , one injury to any Sox top 3 starters might negate the gains the offense makes. Sox really need Sale ,Q, and Rodon to be healthy and Eric Johnson to be good and healthy. Because Rodon and Johnson will be limited in amount of innings pitched if the Sox do make the playoffs they might have gassed pitchers and you severely test Sale's arm at that point.

QUOTE (dpd9189 @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 10:20 AM) Gordon is a good ball player but I'd pass on him. The Sox can probably get Upton for a little more money who's 5 years younger. Might be $50M more . If that's a little more I need to retire and need $1M . Can you swing it ? Actually 3.5 years younger. Please do not screw with the facts when making a point. It's easy to look up.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 10:07 AM) I really don't see how Gordon would be that motivated regardless of where he signs. He's already won a World Series title and got a huge contract...what else is that important to him at this point? Unless he's a true competitor, I think his best years are behind him. The motivated thing was just for a little extra motivation. You always hear about how facing your old team is added incentive. I think he's a professional and being out on the field to earn your money is motivation enough . Upton's and Cespede's best years might be behind them too. Who knows ? Yes I'd rather have one of them but really you would actually be upset at getting Gordon ? I'd be thrilled that the Sox actually got one of them at all.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 10:01 AM) I'm not sold on Gordon either. I don't like his age, his offense isn't great, he can't play RF, he's coming off an injury, and I don't think his defense will stay elite going forward, which is where the bulk of his value comes from. Do the Sox really need "great "offense ? They need more talent. Yea his defense will start degrading or has already started but there's no doubting he has a lot of talent. Out of the big 3 Gordon has the highest Steamer projected WAR next year and it isn't because of the "bulk" of his value comes from defense. Give me a guy familiar with the AL and especially AL Central pitching all day. They are the easier to say that I won't have to wonder about their projection as I would with NL players making the transition to the AL.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 09:59 AM) I seen that Twitter update couple days ago but didn't think much of it. I'd be stunned if he left KC for CWS unless we offered way more money. I wouldn't be stunned. The best way to hurt the Royals for low balling him would be to sign in the same division so he can get back at them . I like a motivated player .

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 09:54 AM) I do too, but I have this nagging feeling he's going to sign for 16 mill and everyone will be kicking themselves. Sign Gordon, Melky DH's ,LaRoche occasional start ,PH, defensive replacement or gone one way or another. Yes please . It's not Cespedes or Upton but not a bad third choice at all.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 09:11 AM) Although I just broke this rule too, this thread is for tweets, quotes and links. Keep the analysis to a minimum. No longer necessary since this is a separate thread now from the "tweets" thread for those of you who actually do as a mod suggests

QUOTE (blackmooncreeping @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 09:26 AM) No way on Fowler, besides the lost draft pick his market is way over-inflated. I'd like to think of him as a good add-on guy AFTER you bring in one of the top 3, but he's going to get paid more than I'd be willing to go. If I'm parting with a draft pick, it's Upton or Gordon and no one else. We'll have to see if it really is over inflated. The glut of OFer's on the market is making many of these guys sweat it out. Fowler maybe should have been one of those guys to accept the QO . He most likely wants 4/5 years but it appears these guys are not going to get what they are asking especially if the Big 3 all sign for less than expected.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 08:42 AM) Fowler makes a ton of sense if not for that damn QO. Would have loved to see him in the 2 spot and have 2 guys in him and Eaton getting on base at a good clip ahead of Abreu/Fraizer......Wouldn't hate to see them still go for him as he makes the lineup, and defense, a whole lot better, but prefer they stay away......Gimme Parra. According to Fangraphs Upton's WAR last year was 3.6, Fowler's 3.2 , Parra's .4 due to a surprisingly bad defensive rating. With the current lack of movement on OF'ers maybe Fowler decides to cut bait and sign for less . It might not take $50M+ to sign him if he takes 3 years. Yes losing the pick would hurt. Just don't see the Sox having much left to make a trade . They've dumped an awful lot of minor leaguers the last few seasons and losing a draft pick when they need to re stock the system would help . But the payroll becomes a lot more hamstrung signing Upton and you also lose the pick and might lose the ability to make another significant signing.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 07:09 AM) IIRC the mets still have severe money issues The Mets would love to have him back but they are like the rest of the teams out there waiting for the price to drop, He might be seeking 6 years and that is a lot. If a team can sign him for 5 years /$110-115M he would probably be off the market already.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 07:42 AM) I doubt the Sox have interest in Fowler. Will cost them a pick, and he's a below average OF with a mediocre bat. He does walk a good bit, though. And he bats RH, which doesn't make him a natural platoon with anyone on the roster. I would think Parra would be at the top of their list if they fall short Cespedes, Upton and Gordon. I could also see the Sox being active in trying to find an OF via trade. Not sure who, though. Blackmon and Dickerson would be nice fits that have been discussed, but may be too spendy. Reddick another guy to look at, but he only has one year of control remaining, so he doesn't really fit in the new 2-3 year window, but perhaps could be gotten a little cheaper, but don't see the Sox making another deal with the A's. Beyond that, I don't really see many great fits on the FA market. Perhaps a Span or Austin Jackson. Or a tier lower like Raburn, Murphy or Joyce. But all of those guys have significant question marks..I'd almost prefer to see a Shuck/Avi platoon in RF than signing some(most) of those guys, outside of Span, any just see what happens..you can always try to pick up an OF in June. Losing the draft pick would be a main obstacle to what I mentioned. In 2005 Pods had an OBP of .351 and Iguchi .342 . Last year Eaton was at .361 and Fowler .346 but the previous 3 years were .375, .369 and .389 and his OPS surprisingly has always been above .750 . Also in 2005 I noticed that all the Sox regulars had HR's in double digits and OPS above .700 except for Pods. Abreu ,Frazier, Eaton, Fowler, Cabrera, LaRoche ,Lawrie ,Navarro ,Garcia and maybe even Saladino all seem capable of 10+ HR's although a .700+ OPS might be a bit of a stretch for some of them. Many of you cite Upton's OBP as a reason why he is the more attractive free agent. Fowlers OBP is very very good usually and he did hit 17 HR last year and can improve the defense more than Upton and play CF to move Eaton to left which might be his more natural position. Fowler is like Upton lite. If the Sox sign one of the big 3 do they really have the money then to get that other RH starter they are seeking or would it have to be bargain basement shopping again ? A Fowler signing would mean more payroll flexibilty would it not ?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Dec 21, 2015 -> 05:46 AM) Many of us die hard Sox fans dread the upcoming fervor, we're convinced will be sweeping across the city, over the Cubs' quest for their first World Championship in over a Century. We're skeptical that the front office will take the necessary steps to complete revamping the pathetic offense, which wasted so many terrific starts by Sale and Quintana. So, some of us have already resigned ourselves to the inevitability of a 2016 Season, in which the North Side will capture all of the attention of the city, and maybe even the baseball world. We might be a little premature in sinking into this gloomy defeatist mood. Chicago is a great baseball town, and baseball fever is contagious. When the buzz starts to capture everyone's attention, lots of casual fans, and even formerly uninterested by standers, will begin to feel the first symptoms of baseball fever. Picking up the paper every morning and reading about all of the excitement, listening to friends, family and co workers bantering back and forth about players, plays and stats, could all create an irresistible attraction to the sport we all love. Who knows better than we, how much fun and how addicting it can be to be a baseball fanatic? Wrigley can only accommodate 42,000 fans. Where will the rest of the baseball fever struck fans go, for their baseball fix? Everyone in town knows a Sox fan, or two and with a little encouragement from them, the newbie just might be encouraged to buy a ticket and see just what all of the excitement is about. The Sox need only have a decent, competitive product on the field. And if baseball fever is contagious, so is winning. Who knows, with a few more fans in the seats and some of the new personalities in the Sox clubhouse, these guys might just catch fire. If they could get off to a good start, the town could explode with enthusiasm for the game. Imagine the so longed for talk of a crosstown World Series. It wouldn't take much to set off this contagion. We all have our own opinions about whom the front office should acquire, but let's just hope that Sox ownership has a little imagination and can see the opportunity that they would be missing if they don't at least try to make the team a legitimate contender. I'm not suggesting that we Sox fans should celebrate the emergence of the Cubs, but we shouldn't regard it as a negative for our fortunes. The Sox will decide their own destiny and the growing enthusiasm for their crosstown rivals may actually be a positive. I absolutely love your optimistic outlook. I think finishing what they started this off season and winning are the true keys to getting fans into the ballpark. If the product stinks no amount of baseball fever will bring anyone to see the ugly step child the Sox will be. Build it and they will come.

Many of us believe if the Sox don't sign one of the big 3 OFer's ( Gordon, Upton, Cespedes) that signing Frazier will have been a waste. Needless to say signing one of the BIG 3 will be the richest contract ever given by the Sox. How likely is that ? Would it be more likely the Sox pursue a guy like Fowler to play CF and who's OBP is very high to create a 1-2 OBPunch at the top of the order ? It would mean better OF defense but he's not even close to being the kind of impact bat Upton or Cespedes are. Still Eaton and Fowler at the top of the order would certainly give guys like Abreu and Frazier many opportunities to get RBI's. Maybe Fowler takes a 3 year contract and then the Sox have more room to sign that RH starting pitcher they have been reportedly seeking or add another BP piece like Albers. Or both. Would this kind of back up plan be acceptable or seen as a 1/2 measure ?

It'll be interesting to see how long it takes for some of these OFer's to sign and for how much. It's a buyers market now but someone will blink and I'm guessing it'll be the Orioles unless Chris Davis suddenly says yes to their offer . Boras is comfortable playing the waiting game. If nothing happens for another month or teams start throwing out low ball offers like KC did for Gordon, I wouldn't be surprised to hear agents start throwing around the word "collusion" again. Did all these teams all of a sudden realize paying for declining years is a waste of resources and that the scales have tilted too far in the players direction ? Or is it simply the glut of OFer's on the market ? Good news is all these things add to the Sox chances of landing one of the big 3 . Instead of $150M, maybe it drops down to the $100-130M range. Of course all this gnashing of teeth about a payroll of $130-135M is silly. Create a buzz. It happened last year for a bunch of guys who turned out to be stiffs, Frazier and a guy like Cespedes/Upton should be potentially even more enticing to fans. Don't wait too long Sox or the boat might leave the dock without you.