CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 02:57 PM) Wait, I just went to fangraphs and this isn't true. Here's his UZR by year: 3.7 -3.5 -10.3 1.2 -0.2 4.0 7.6 6.1 I'm ashamed someone would get their info wrong trying to make a point . That never happens here

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 02:56 PM) He wouldn't be a goat if he did that. The problem is that the odds of him doing that are incredibly small. On top of that, the track record of Rays players leaving the team and underperforming or flat out sucking is extensive. Keppinger, Upton, Kotchman, hell, even Crawford have all been poor after leaving. I'm probably forgetting a few too. I don't know what it is they put in the water, but guys go crazy down there and then bomb elsewhere. That alone is more than reason enough for me to not want any of their fluky, 1 year wonder players. I can't believe such a fine baseball mind as you possess buys into that Rays players flukiness theory. Hey 2014 is an even numbered year for the Sox and recent history suggest those are our lucky years so I'll go with that bit of flukiness over yours.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 02:51 PM) Here's one look at it. Almost every relevant stat for players who last into their 30's peaks before 30 and is declining afterwards. Obviously it depends on the player of course, but if we look back at his career at the end, we should have zero surprise if his 29 year old season winds up being his best season. Corey Hart will be 32 starting in March and has had 2 knee surgeries and didnt play at all last year. Kendry Morales put up a similiar season to Loney offensively had 8 more HR's yet his wRC+ is 116 to Loneys 118 , his WAR 1.2 to Loney's 2.7 and turns 31 in June. Really who is out there ?? Yes I want Abreu , yes, I was dyng for the Sox to somehow get Adams from the Cards at the trade deadline. I don't see a better option for a LH bat which we need desperately.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 02:49 PM) What exactly about UZR makes it woefully inadequate? Quoting the ESPN insider article I referenced earlier "He's been above average as a first baseman every season of his career according to DRS. Since his first full season in 2008, Loney has recorded more good fielding plays -- as defined by Baseball Info Solutions -- than every other first baseman except Mark Teixeira (400 versus 398). so someones wrong . Guess you can believe what you want and I'll believe Torre and DRS.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 02:16 PM) A guy coming off a career-best year and turning 30? yeah, reductions in his performance should be expected. Career best in some areas not others. Since when is 30 old? Up to 32 was always consider prime years even before steroids made primes last longer.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 09:09 AM) James Loney just had his career year at 2.7 WAR, and he's poised to be overpaid. Also, despite his reputation for being a high end defender, he has managed a negative UZR literally every year of his career. Sure, UZR can be wonky from year to year, but six consecutive years of below average numbers paints a pretty compelling picture. At his best, he's a touch above an average player, and he's about to be overpaid to enter his decline years. He's 29 turns 30 around May I think .He won't get a lot of years or dollars since so few ( judging by this board) don't want 1stbasemen who don't hit for (as much as you all want) power. I don't think his UZR paints much of a picture at all. Texeria, generally considered an above avg. 1st baseman is the only guy who saved more runs than Loney since 2008 and only by 2 runs. If his ex manager Joe Torre says he's a good fielder I'll take his word for it rather than the woefully inadeqaute UZR which seems to only reward players at premium positions.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 02:11 PM) In today's hitting environment, I absolutely do. Even if he put up .285/.340/.420, that is still less than what you want from your 1B, especially on a team as devoid of talent as the Sox are offensively. It might be less then you want but offense is down 15% in baseball, since 2006, the main culprits by position are 1st base, 3rd base and SS. Everyone there (1st)is old or injured . Funny how when runs were down and everyone was hitting worse Loney got better.Is the pitching in the Central so much better than the East ? There's a lot of RH pitchers in our divsion and Loney is capabe of being a .300 hitter full time. Yes, we need more bats around him to make him more productive and I'm hoping that happens too. I really can't see him being a goat if he hits near .300 hits 15 HR's and drives in 80 and shows a lot more range in the field than Dunn and Konerko.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 08:39 AM) Loney in 2012 was worse offensively than Konerko in 2013. The team that pays Loney based on 2013, a .778 OPS he hasn't had since 2007, is going to be about as happy about it as Rick Hahn is he signed Keppinger. His one bad year. If you use that as your gauge ,Konerko had a few bad years. Did you think that was likely to happen for the rest of career also.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 10:33 AM) Really, if you look at the stats, this isn't true. They put him in LF in 2012 and he was just a small tick below "average" out there. Both UZR and Defensive Runs Saved agree on this, UZR he was at -3 with 0 being average, DRS he was actually above average in 2012. The problem is he was significantly worse in both metrics in 2013. In 2012, he covered enough ground and was reliable enough of a fielder that when you factor in his arm, he was just fine in 2012. The problem is he suffered from the same 2013 disease as the rest of the team and got worse. His arm didn't come into play as much in 2013 because baserunners knew not to run on him.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 07:55 AM) I think Loney would be the biggest one by far, and I think most of it would have to do with the inevitable .270/.330/.370 he puts up in his first season with the Sox. You just need more out of a 1B than that. So you expect his avg, obp ,and slg. to drop below his career average in the Cell ? I expect at least a 285.avg 340obp. and .420 slg. if not higher.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 06:12 AM) Because they offer him the most money and the chance to play with fellow Cubans? Do you really think if the Sox offered $50 million and the Rangers offered $20 million he'd say "CHICAGO IS FULL OF BUTT MUNCHERS, TEXAS ALL THE WAY!" or do you think he'd probably sign with the Sox? Consider me strongly opposed to the idea of James Loney. This is a guy that I feel, if the Sox signed him, would become an instant goat. As opposed to the 20 or so goats we already have ??

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 04:30 AM) Ok so lets use DRS. Loney has 21 DRS over the past 3 years (437 games played at 1B). That comes out to be about 1 run saved every 21 games. Is that really enough to overcome his complete lack of power? Especially on our current roster where we will probably only get 30-40 homers total from the rest of our infield? I don't think so. 1B is a offensive position. It's enough to improve the D from 1stB last year and so are all his other htting qualities. You are all hung up on this idea that he doesnt have enough power for the postion when I look at he improves what we had last year. You make imrovements at 5 or 6 positions on offense and defense, you're improving the teams 10- 12 ways better than last year. We played tons of 1 run games. Win more of those close games and you turn around your record with the pitching we already have. Baseball is a team game . It all adds up if your plan is to improve 5-6 positions. Not just the offense, but the defense and baserunning need help too .

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Oct 9, 2013 -> 03:00 AM) Where is the idea of James Loney being a good firstbasemen coming from? He has been a negative value defender his whole career. If I'm signing a first basemen thats going to have a .750 OPS and hit MAYBE 15 homers, he better be gold glove caliber. While I don't think Hart is the piece that is going to put us over the top, give me him anyday of the week over Loney if we miss out on Abreu. He'll probably come much cheaper and if healthy should outproduce Loney. His ex manager Joe Torre said he was a plus defensively. Here's another article about potential bargain free agents who do well defensively when runs scored are way down in baseball. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...free-agents-mlb You know defensive metrics don't give 1st basemen much leeway or praise like they do other positions. Defensive metrics are still a work in progress so read the article. It's ESPN insider but you can still see the 1st 2 paragraphs about Loney's defense. If your going to trust defensive metrics then you need to see DRS and if you don't know what that is then don't disparage his defense without more knowledge.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 10:53 PM) Loney is solid defensively but is not fast by any stretch. Hart is 31 and 1 year removed from a season where his OPS was .841. That would be good for 1Bman 9th in baseball last year. Plus, that .841 was the lowest OPS he posted in his last seasons and he'd be moving to our ballpark. Hart has upside. If Hart went 30/90 with a .275/.340/.515 slash nobody would be surprised. Loney's career best at each of those statistics: 15/90 .299/.348/.434 Hart probably signs something like 1 yr 5 mil with incentives or 2 yr 8 mil. Loney probably signs for much more than that. Hart will be 32 when the 2014 season starts and I would be surprised if he goes 30/90 with that slash line coming off 2 knee surgeries and missing a whole year+ counting the off season. You bolded "over the hill" but you can see that was my mini-rant about 1st base in general . The Texeira , Ryan Howard, Justin Moreau types while you should have bolded the injury part of the rant that applies to Hart. You're all acting like these things are no big deal. He injured one knee then while rehabbing , screwed the other one up . Taking his stats from 2012 and saying they'd be 9th in baseball in 2013 means nothing because he was injured for 2013 , the whole season. He will never be what he was physically before the injuries .The dude wants to be in Milwaukee if the Brewers say no that should tell you something. He's practically throwing himself at them ,begging them to take him back. I don't understand why we all want Abreu , then if we don't get him for that high dollar amount then all of a sudden we go cheap at 1st base. Loney won't even end up getting half of what Abreu probably ends up with, maybe even 1/3 but I'll guess between 1/2 and 1/3. I wouldn't be unhappy getting Hart . I just think it's more likely for Loney to have a better season and he's more obtainable and he's lefthanded. It would be nice to have a few .290+ batting averages in the lineup to sustain rallies for once and not dread the lefty on lefty matchup instead of a bunch of .250 hitters like we had last year.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 03:50 PM) I don't want a fast, defensive 1B when I play at the Cell. I want a guy that's going to hit a ton of HRs, especially given the lack of power with the rest of our infield. And if we can't acquire a better 1B than Loney this offseason, then we're better off accepting 2014 is a lost cause, because we aren't going to improve enough with him at a critical offensive position. And what works for the Rays isn't automatically going to work for us. See Jeff Keppinger's numbers in 2012 and then take a look at Loney's this year. Both are clear outliers and I don't want get stuck with another mediocre player signed to a multi-year deal coming off a fluke year. Outlier? He had 1 bad year in 2012. The rest fof his career he's been rock steady. Who cares about lack of power from the rest of the infield . I'm looking to upgrade those too . One move for more power doesnt improve anything. All areas need improvement not just power. Ive' put myself out there with a plan to improve all facets of the Sox . What's your plan . Easy to snipe about one position . I want the pitchers happy . They are our bread and butter . Baseballs moving away from lumbering power inflated numbers. I'll take marked improvement in all areas of the game at multiple positions instead of some over the hill coming off injury HR quest that is the 1st base position in baseball now.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 02:52 PM) Signing Loney to a 3 year deal would be a horrible move. When you have arguably the worst offense in baseball, you don't sign a below-average offensive player to a multi-year deal to fill a position that is naturally offense-oriented. If you miss out on Abreu, Morales, and Hart then you might as well check the non-tender list or try to acquire a minor league that's blocked. I don't see any reason to go with James Loney unless it's a cheap, one year deal and even then I'd explore other options first. I guess I could do this all day. When you have the worst offense in baseball and the worst defense and slow footed creatures all over the bases you don't look to hit HR's with your moves. You look to improve in all areas with every player you acquire. As usual all I keep hearing about is offense. Did Konerko hit .299. Did Konerko have the range of Loney ? Did Konerko run the bases with any speed ? Yes I want Abreu but failing that I want a better team in more areas than offense. I want improvement at positions , multiple positions. Don't like 3 years ? Have you looked at the dearth of quality 1st basemen around baseball lately ? You could do a lot worse than Loney by far. Don't act like you can get his kind of production out of just anyone. You don't pick guys up off the scrapheap who can hit field and run the bases at 1st the way he can. If he was good enough for TB in the playoffs he's good enough for the Sox .

I want Garcia in RF no if ands or buts. Stick him there for the next 5 years and forget about him. Its the 1 position on the team that doesn't need to be dealt with. Do whatever you have to do to get a true CF'er, and not some BODY like Granderson. We have the payroll flexibilty to wheel and deal. Ideally starters should stick to one position. Your bench is for flexilbity. You can surely wait on Granderson, and if he signs early with someone for big bucks then you haven't lost much anyway. He's not a true CF'er, he's coming off injuries that sap power . Wait and if you can't get what you should be looking for , take a chance on him for diminished deniro .

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 01:53 PM) While I'd love to keep going haha, my views on Loney are very similar to Balta's displayed in his last post. Obviously 1B is not QB in the NFL but Loney is like a David Garrard or Josh Freeman or Kerry Collins. He's serviceable and a top 20 1B and even a top 15 in a good year, but he's not what we need. Looking at what we have at 2B-SS-3B, I'd be happy to get 30 homers out of those three positions. Loney brings a 15 HR career high. Hart, coming off his surgeries, was very consistent and powerful in his four seasons prior. He would come at a discounted rate and before his surgeries he wasn't a clogger like PK or Morales. Obviously it's not a given he returns to form, but if he's 80% of what he used to be he's better than Loney for our team. Tieing that with the two contracts I like Hart way more. My original plan was to upgrade the HR's at 2nd (also the fielding) by trading for Howie Kendrick .Now you've got 2 guy's who can hit 15 HR's apiece at 1st and 2nd, 2 good hitters, two good runners and 2 good fielders, improving productivity at 2 positions of need . They both hit near .300 so even though neither walks a lot still upgrades OBP too. They both seem like professional hitters , consistent without being extraordinary while still young enough and inexpensive enough to provide 2-3 years worth of quality service time and still money to spend. I'm just not looking for huge bats but better bats, gloves, amd speed then we have right now . Get on move 'em over types. Guys that can go from 1st to 3rd on a base hit. Players that upgrade in 3 areas that need improvements, hitting ,defense and baserunning. They won't ever carry a team on their backs but they add all the little extras that go into winning more games and playing sound baseball. It just reminds me of a few years ago when discussing Derrick Lee vs Adam Laroche . I was in the minority there ( by a lot) wanting LaRoche . I'll take the younger , most recent success guy almost every time when I don't think his salary will be exorbitant at all.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 8, 2013 -> 12:22 PM) Because Loney's salary is going to be based in large part on what he did last year and his performance last year is an anomaly relative to the rest of his career. The rest of his career he's been a guy teams would happily replace if they had a better option. This year he's been a valuable player. If you pay him like a valuable player and next year he goes back to being "guy you'd be very happy to send to the bench for a better hitter", you're stuck with another unmovable contract. I'm just thinking that his contract won't be so high that it'll be unmovable. He's a lifetime .285 hitter and .340 OBP and has been very durable. Sure he's not the hig HR or OPS guy you ideally want at 1st but he's also a better runner and fielder than those types. He had a base salary of $2M with Tampa . He's not high risk nor little reward if you value consistency and a guy you know what to expect from when put in the lineup every day. Plus he's in his prime and probably is capable of hitting 20 HR playing half his games in the Cell though I wouldn't expect it. I think Hart can be described as high risk , high reward but not low risk at all. I think 3 years $20-25M is really ideal for the Sox now with his lefthandedness.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 7, 2013 -> 06:19 PM) Who do you think will be demanding a bigger contract Hart or Loney? Why does it matter if Hart is willing to sign Milwaukee at a hometown discount? Sure, the likeliness of him coming to Chicago is less but that doesn't mean Loney's a better fit. Loney is high risk, little reward. Hart is low risk, high reward. As you said though, agree to disagree. I know Loney will get the bigger contract , no doubt at all but why is there concern about paying a guy in his prime coming of a good year when when the Sox have all kinds of room to sign him ? I don't understand why Loney is high risk after hitting as well as he did and Hart is low risk after 2 knee surgeries, 2 yrs older than Loney ,and missed the whole yr. Just because of a lower contract ? I know we could discuss this all day, I'm just trying to understand your point of view better ,but its good baseball discussion. Hart's going to have quite a bit of adjusting to do physically after 2 surgeries and more adjusting after not facing ML pitching for over a year. We need more lefties. Where are the Sox going to get them ? McCann and Granderson ? What's your plan ?

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 05:46 PM) I don't understand why people are so down on Viciedo. He has alot of upside and, to me, is the kind of guy you want. He's young, going into his 3rd year, and looks like a guy who could breakout like Dominic Brown did in Philly. I'd like to add a CF and keep De Aza as the 4th OF. How about a trade for Carlos Gomez? I know that's taking a chance that this past year was a "career" year but it may also be that he is hitting his prime and may be coming into his own. Milwaukee could use some pitching. That's what I've been thinking for a while. I want a true defensive Cf who hits LH . Gomez would be ideal but prying him away from the Brewers would be near impossible but someone like Ben Revere who has no power would fit my bill also.

Rangers 6yrs. $63M

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 7, 2013 -> 08:39 AM) Regardless, Loney should not be the guy we target. No power and we'd be buying high on him. The Dodgers practically gave him away for a reason. We lack power and 1B is a glaring hole, whoever we start at first base next year should have at least 20 HR capability. James Loney's career high in HRs is 15 and he has playedat least 158 games 5 times. Conor Gillaspie's HR/AB rate is far superior than Loney's has EVER been and people around here b**** about his power all the time. Loney fits perfectly for the Rays and I hope he stays away from our Sox. Guess we'll have to disagree. We can't just keep getting RH bats all the time. with so much RH pitching in our division. I really could live with either one. Hart has a lot more power , is a good fiellder , was an outfielder so had good speed . Don't know how he'll be after 1 surgery apiece on each knee . You want the guy coming off 2 knee surgeries, 2 yrs. older and didn't play at all last year and wants to stay with the Brewers bad enough that he said he'd give them a "generous discount." I want the younger Loney who hits LH and hit .299 against both lefties and righties coming off a good year. We both probably prefer Abreu but odds on getting him appear long with the whole blind bid thing. Either ,instead of the high bid on Abreu, would allow the Sox more wiggle room at other positions. If the Sox trade DeAza the LH bat becomes even more important. Side note. Loney 3 for 3 in game 3 against the Red Sox.

Everything I need to know about the "source" is in his thinking that Granderson is a 1st tier free agent " . He's not . I like the idea of getting a CF but it shouldn't be Granderson unless they think they can get him for 2 years max and $8-10M . I doubt he'd settle for that after making $13M a season. He's not going to be the 3.5 WAR player he was. Fan graphs is asking what do you think he is worth amongst fans right now. so that'll be interesting to see. I'd be shocked if most teams don't wait him out till after January so he knows he not in a position to demand a lot.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 6, 2013 -> 07:47 PM) Abreu is obviously the hope but I would definitely buy low on Corey Hart before I buy high on Loney. Hart's already said if the Brewer want him he'd give them a hometown discount with some kind of incentive laden contract. He really wants to stay there and he's another righty. Depends how high Loney get's . Right now thats a mystery . What do think Loney will get? I was hoping 3 years not more than around $15-20M but I have no idea how realistic that is.