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bmags

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Everything posted by bmags

  1. Maybe no one offered 4/100. Maybe that was just some random kid wanting attention on a message board.
  2. Just watched a leafs canadiens game from a Toronto sports bar. Pretty fun stuff.
  3. Woops I was totally thinking Ramon Castro. Jason Castro probably weirder.
  4. QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Jan 18, 2014 -> 03:29 PM) Okay, this is weird and probably means nothing, but my email in-box this morning from White Sox.com had a bunch of new items to buy. The usual stuff, coats, a Luis Aparicio collage, a Jason Castro collage - A JASON CASTRO collage? How weird is that? Awesome ive been waiting for my jason Castro collage.
  5. QUOTE (dayan024 @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 09:23 PM) Daryl Van Schouwen ‏@CST_soxvan 18m Bovada odds to sign Tanaka: Yanks 3/2, Dodgers 11/4, M's 5/1, Cubs 7/1, BoSox 10/1, Dbacks 12/1, Tex 15/1, Angels15/1, ChiSox 18/1, Jays18/1 Jays, eh? Didn't know they were in on it.
  6. bmags

    2014 Films Thread

    The academy really has to re-establish their joke of a selection process for documentaries. They routinely pick the most routine crap and miss out on docs that become known as classic. For "stories we tell" and blackfish to be left off is just ridiculous.
  7. QUOTE (dayan024 @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 06:07 PM) The Jason Smith Show ‏@JasonSmithShow 19m Are the Dodgers in running for #Tanaka? "They still need another pitcher and they'd love it to be Tanaka if the money is right." Well the money is not going to be right for any franchise. This will be a huge budget breaker.
  8. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 05:16 PM) I think what you are actually seeing is a trend towards what we saw in the 80s where good defensive shortstops were abundant but good offensive shortstops were on very short supply. Cal Ripken kind of broke that mold back then, but we're back. This is why, if Leury Garcia is as good defensively as advertised, I've had no problem dealing Alexei. Alcides Escobar hit .234/.259/.300 (yes, that's a .559 OPS) with a wRC+ of 49 and, because of his defense and the positional adjustment, he was still worth 1.1 WAR entirely because of how good he was defensively. If he hits .250/.300/.325, he's probably a 2 WAR player. I also think, to some extent, you are also assuming just a bit too much how easy it is. Last year, there were 15 full time shortstops who had WARs of 2 or more. Considering there can only be 30 full time shortstops, and the WAR of an average player is 2, that distribution actually works out pretty perfectly. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 You're last paragraph nailed it. In the original thread (which I had not looked up anything beyond that), someone said Leury would easily be a 2.0 WAR player, which is where this is all coming from.
  9. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 05:45 PM) I don't necessarily think that's true. I think you are going to see the differences in variances no matter what position it is, but what you will see is that it's easier to accrue very high values up the middle than it is on the corners. This is why people have been screaming for Trout to win the MVP the last two years over Cabrera, and why statheads hate the idea of the Angels using Trout in LF. I guess I'm confused about this part of it. You know that a CF should have a higher WAR than a 1b, which makes total sense to me. But I'm getting tripped up I guess because it seems to me it's not really weighting shortstops against each other correctly if it's pretty easy for any SS to get to 2.0 WAR. And maybe it isn't and that's just my presumption I haven't looked at where all shortstops fell last year.
  10. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 04:34 PM) Yes. There is a replacement level jump that is automatically figured into each position within the equation: Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games) First Base: -12.5 runs Second Base: +2.5 runs Third Base: +2.5 runs Shortstop: +7.5 runs Left Field: -7.5 runs Center Field: +2.5 runs Right Field: -7.5 runs Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs (For the record, a run in this instance (as I recall) is the difference between the number of runs you personally create and the number of runs you allow.) Roughly 10 runs equals 1 WAR. However, the reason it's "easier" for a shortstop to earn a higher WAR compared to catcher is because shortstops simply affect more plays. They are making strides towards better defining catcher's defensive value (specifically in pitch framing), but, simply put, a shortstop getting/not getting to a ball affects the game far more than a catcher allowing a runner to get to 2B because he couldn't throw him out or allowed a passed ball. Alexei Ramirez, even considering how "bad" he was defensively last year, still saved 12 more runs than he allowed defensively and he was worth 3.1 WAR. Alexei Ramirez was and is still a very solid shortstop, and it really, honestly, is one of the best free agent signings in White Sox history. Makes sense. So even though it's position adjusted, the variance between great and good is much larger at shortstop because they have a chance at more plays.
  11. In a futuresox thread someone said it is easier for a SS to get to something like 4.0 WAR so it isn't as impressive. Is WAR measured against your replacement infielder or replacement position? Is SS just so much easier to create dramatic improvement because of the balls in play you have a chance to make an impact on?
  12. QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 05:06 PM) This is exactly what Hahn said it would be like in his statement. He said negotiations and anything else will be kept quiet out of respect to Mr. Tanaka makes his final decision. I think it may be a good thing we have respected their wishes. I have read that the NYY may have taken themselves out of it by all the stuff the have supposedly leaked. Who knows anymore. But just because we're quiet I wouldn't necessarily count us out. And for the record Hayes tweeted last night one source said "dOnt count the White Sox out." Hayes has pretty much covered his ass by tweeting every possible scenario. "Don't be surprised by cubs!" "Don't count white sox out!" " Count white sox out" " Count cubs out" "It may snow!"
  13. Chris Christie's success pretty much vindicates the Republican strategy of opposing everything Obama does. If the democrats don't play ball with Christie, nobody gives him credit for "getting things done" and make him a national figure for dealin with democrats.
  14. The fact that White Sox have not been even mentioned in a single tweet recently makes me think the ball game is over. Enjoy the $150 million dollar man.
  15. bmags

    2014 Films Thread

    http://www.vulture.com/2014/01/oscar-nomin...-full-list.html I would like Jonze to have received best director nod, but man, that is a hell of a list of names in that category. Overall, no surprises for me except Nebraska getting a best picture nod.
  16. Anyone in town that likes fun things should check out diarrhea planet on Sunday at Lincoln hall.
  17. QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 16, 2014 -> 04:37 AM) Butler...60 minutes. Oladipo...57 minutes.
  18. QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 10:35 PM) I was at WSI during the Miguel Cabrera thing. The package over there, the final deal, was Gio + Danks + Fields (fresh off his rookie performance) + Sweeney. That was a nice package back then, but now that's definitely a haul. Tigers took DTrain though and gave up 6 players. I never liked Miller, but Maybin was one of these all-world type of prospects (who never became anything much obviously). They gave up some other interesting players, i.e. I believe Euglolio Cruz or some s*** like that, a big armed 100mph closing candidate who didn't do anything. The Marlins definitely should have taken our deal. And had they, I wonder if the Sox would have been willing to go to the immediate mega deal extension that the Tigers gave out. It would have been atypical of the Sox to say the least, but would have in hindsight been a terrific move. Wow I did not remember Danks being included at all.
  19. QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 10:24 PM) And John Garland to Houston. Astros had the press conference ready to make the announcement and...it never happened. Forget who we were getting. That was nothing compared to when we thought Miguel Cabrera was coming to us only to have an hour go by and he was a Tiger. And man the proposed package we were sending to Florida was such garbage.
  20. It's not like The Jordan Rules was a very flattering portrayal of Jordan and it didn't stick. Also remember when Sam Smith was a good writer?
  21. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 04:19 PM) I think it's closer to 10th best, but the reason you add him is so you can call him up and not worry if you ultimately end up losing him on waivers while not burning options for guys like Beck or Snodgress. Basically, if they need a guy for 1 start, and he just so happens to be fresh for the start, you can call him up. It's about a 1% chance that he is even used this year. I do agree with Dick that it's pretty empty depth. And also a guy who you are confident can get you to 5-6 innings so you don't burn your bullpen for the next week. Whether that 5-6 innings gives up 5-6 runs as well is not terrible. You probably give yourself a 30% chance to win while preserving a higher percentage chance to win in future games that week.
  22. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 15, 2014 -> 03:50 PM) He surprised us with gems in May. Then June and familiarity came. He had a good start vs. Seattle, but that isn't very unique, and then the roof caved in. In his last 58 1/3 innings, he gave up 102 hits 52 ER, 22 BB, 32 K and 17 HR. No one was too upset when the Sox didn't offer him a contract. Now he becomes "depth". We are talking about an 8th starter.
  23. Well at least with Axe you know what you are gonna get. You could win the game with a good offensive night, or he might surprise you with a gem. That's better than thinking a guy will respond well to the show and then gives up 15 runs (Arnie Munoz)
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