bmags

I don't buy this. I can't claim this idea of, I don't know, "Workhorse Ace" or whatever I'm giving Bumgarner is well-defined. I get that. But I just picked a handful of some of the best workhorse ace pitchers I can remember in the last 20 years. Some I misremembered as workhorses (I totally forgot Chris Carpenter was a dave duncan special), but it certainly doesn't convince me that there are 5 felix's for 1 verlander. I looked at the following pitchers: Josh Beckett, Chris Carpenter, Bartolo Colon, Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Mussina, Pettitte, Price, Sabathia, Shields, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Kershaw, Lester, Hamels. Players like Sale were left off because he's only 30 now. By age 29 (bumgarner's age season), this group averaged 31.6 fWAR (Bumgarner has 31.3). The average IP was 1476 (Bumgarner was 1829)*. If I could do a really good baseball reference search I would probably set a min WAR of at least 20 and IP of at least 1200 by age 29. But obviously this was handpicked list. In terms of IP and debut, Bumgarners closest peers are Felix, Greinke, Kershaw, Sabathia and Hernandez. That group (including Hernandez, but minus Kershaw due to age) averaged 12 WAR over that 4 year period, Kershaw has 6.7 in his first two years and keeps pace. I because this was a subsection of pitchers that I can remember being long-term successful, it isn't a great sample. But I'm not convinced it's obvious that there are 5 felix's for 1 Scherzer. These guys being so successful are already outliers. It doesn't mean their 30s will be as successful as their 20s or close, but it may very well mean they will still be quite productive.

I'm going to be honest, despite being in the realistic offseason thread, for the next two months I'm much less interested in what I see the sox doing compared to what I'd like the sox to be doing.

Yeah more the wall part. I don't really think the nl/al thing is a big deal, Kershaw wouldn't have mid 2 eras in the AL but still would have been a top pitcher. For me I just wouldn't put darvish on Bums level. I probably need a way to categorize this pitcher that I see makes Bum the reliable one but for me Darvish is a lot like Strasburg in that they were very productive and dominant but were the ones who could not provide that consistent 180+ IP. Bum's unrelated-to-baseball injury was the only time he couldn't make that. To me that's actually a sign he will continue to provide value, not that he is "maxed out". But I guess I would need a list of pitchers performance who averaged like 180+ or more innings over their first 6 years and see how they did since 2000?

Yeah I feel this too, it snuck up on me. Definitely was more buzz for hawks in preseason than Bulls getting back into camp. But bears/cubs, maybe it starts in earnest as preseason games start. I do think fans could embrace this team more than last few years, thad young and sato are really likeable on court players. They've had a lot of players just insufferable to watch in parker/blakeney/dunn

Can someone give me a good example of this? To be honest I've sort of hardened in my mind recently that some pitchers hit an age and threshold where this miles argument doesn't hold water for me. The board was celebrating how Verlander was done because he was overused. I suppose Price would be the best example of this (in terms of being used a lot then falling off in big payday)?

So how do we mean this? I took it literally as in guys I will make sure to check box scores every night/get excited on pitching nights. But it sounds like it's actually identifying which guys are in make or break years, where if they don't have a good year it ruins them as a prospect. Is that right?

His velo recovered this year compared to last.

I'm totally with you. I am not in this for a "he may love playing for Ricky so much that he just can't imagine playing elsewhere!"

So cease/Collins and Sosa? I’m interested. Cards also signed Goldschmidt long term.

I understand many do not think it’s fair to categorize the Cuban/NPB exports differently in operations as they are functionally the same group, and I get it. But the Sox clearly prefer the “less risky” older players from professional leagues than the signings of the 16-18 year olds I am typically speaking about with the international signings. But the Sox have done basically nothing from the latter for quite a while and my take is that they have a CW in the building that those players are too “risky” and don’t want to justify spending millions on a group of 16 year olds when 80% wont make it out of Aball.

Thompson and Dalquist

Sure wilder wasn’t my point either, i think baltas point is accurate that this is exactly the international operation Jerry likes, and its not a surprise wilder happened under his watch. Jerry clearly thinks kids that age are a crapshoot and aggressively going after kids is silly, and he has the games second worst international operation because of it. And he’s fine with that.

I would expect him to ask why it has been so bad for 20 years.

Guessing you just didn’t expect people to get to the third paragraph

I always like him more than board but have no reason other than a soft “I think he just knows how to pitch and will still be good throwing 84 mph”

No

That is chases fault. He’s always been afraid of stepping up in pocket.

Damn, that’s expensive but wish soldier field had done that to be able to host all different kinds of sports while not forcing bears to be on natural grass in winter.

Stuff like this will always come up as an excuse. Going east is a lot easier than west. London is not difficult to travel to for jet lag.

I hope they show some fight in second half. Defense looks like they are ready to quit, offensive line is a joke

This bears oline, which has been terrible all year, finally completely destroys a game for them.

I’m a bit surprised how little board interest there is in Keuchel compared to last offseason. Is there rumors I don’t know? He can’t receive a QO again right?

Probably because owning a baseball team filled with a bunch of longtime buddies is fun as hell.

I think this is about smaller teams needing to stay competitive while not overextending themselves. That said, Sox have note been able to adhere to this model this decade.

FWIW I think there is a fairly charitable reading of this especially for a smaller market team that isn’t the Yankees/Red Sox.