I really just don’t like free agents like wheeler. Maybe I’m wrong, but I see him as a Corbin-like deal and not a 4 for 60 type deal, so if he is cheaper I’d be game.
I just feel like in baseball I’d much rather allocate more into guys with a high floor than a high ceiling. In the NFL you can course correct quickly, so paying for upside can pay off. In baseball you can’t, so in this thread we have people stating machado having his first year as a 3.5 WAR year as why his contract is bad but to me it’s why he’s good.
Players that have established themselves in the top tier for a bit like bumgarner may not give you the high production you are paying for but they give you a higher likelihood of a high floor and a reputation for pitching that makes them always tradeable despite salary.
Basically I think you should operate high/low in free agency. You don’t pay for odorizzi after he’s good, you have to operate by getting him before and do it yourself. Of course, this type of management should include spending heavy amounts of resources in PD and international to turn out as much cheap talent as you can, and we don’t have that. So we may need to pay for starters with higher variance and cross our fingers.