chitownsportsfan

Pnoles' piece was fine (other than the over wrought explanation of standard distributions) but nobody would ever, ever be against adding WAR in the abstract. But in the real world the Sox have a hard budget and player that they have invested in like Avi. These are considerations that a narrow "just add more WAR" argument avoids. The Sox are betting on themselves, including their player development, which seems a pretty silly bet I acknowledge. But if they actually are better than they expect THEN you really go for it in July. The tenor on this board, when the projections have the Sox as actually a fringe contender, compared to last year, when the projections had them as not even a fringe contender, is just bizarre to me. The team is BETTER ON PAPER now then it was last year with all the moves. Every season needs to be viewed as its own entity. Don't let the failures of the last few years color your opinion on this year's squad. If the team sucks again, yea, it's probably time to blow it up and fire a bunch of people. But on paper, there's reason to be optimistic this year -- much, much moreso than 2014 and 2015.

Can't believe I'm arguing on the side of 2k5, surely it's a new year! Pnoles had a piece on SSS the other day pedantically explaining an normal distribution and how another 2 WAR would put the Sox closer to the occasional outcomes around 88 wins (and thus playoffs). Well OK, but every team in the Central other than the Twins is in the same damn boat. I'd much rather wait and see how things look in July and then see where the Sox are looking relative the division and wild card race. What Pnoles really never acknowledged is that the Sox are just as likely to fall on the wrong side of the distribution curve as the the "right" side. By waiting until July you get much, much more information on where your team is. Other than signing Fowler for a reasonable deal I really think the position right now is "wait and see".

QUOTE (MDWhiteSoxFan @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 10:53 PM) Report is Baltimore is expected to sign Gallardo and Fowler. 2 years 12-13 mil a year for Fowler. That is an absolute steal.

So if the Sox sign Fowler they give up their 2nd round pick? Personally that's a no brainer to me. The pick doesn't matter. He's a big big enough upgrade overall where I see no problems paying him 2/25 or hell, even 3/32. Unlike Jackson, Fowler is a "young" 29 and doesn't rely as much on his athleticism to produce. I'd 100% be on board with Fowler even with a slight over pay.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 09:32 PM) Honest question, but what can Jackson realistically expect if Fowler ends up with a 2/$25M deal? I'm thinking something like 2/$16M, which would be a pretty solid price IMO. Yes, just give Jackson a 2 year deal. Chasing these stupid incremental upgrades is exactly how they got stuck with La Roche. Let's do it all over! Nobody else looks at his medicals, his stats, and will give him anything but the Sox are only Austin Jackson away from REALLY pumping up the fan base. I understand the losing has beat you guys down but the Sox have only 25 roster spots and they only have so much money. This isn't a team that does well chasing incremental FA upgrades.

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 09:13 PM) So much awesomeness in this post. Shocking to think Ventura and possibly Hahn will let their job fall on the shoulders of Avi and LaRoche. If you think the delta between Avi and Jackson in 2016 will be 3.7 WAR you're off your rocker. Austin Jackson is not putting this team over the top. There's a reason nobody has bothered signing him. I mis read his age earlier he's "only" 29 instead of 30 and you're going to be asking him to play a new position, RF -- FWIW he has a negative fWAR in RF in an ultra small sample size. Avi sucks but just like Viciedo the scenario is such that you pretty much have to give him another 300 or so PA to figure out if you can safely cut bait. A torn labrum is no joke and an obvious reason why he was unable to consistently generate bat speed or play any sort of defense last year. I'm not expecting him to turn into a 4 WAR player but would anyone be shocked if both him and Jackson finished around 1 fWAR this season? It really surprises me how many folks think the Austin Jackson is some surefire upgrade. I just don't think you've looked at his stats or watched him play since he left Detroit. He's clearly a player in decline that relies on his athletic ability (which is leaving him) for most of his value. FFS he had a .311 OBP and struck out 22% of the time last year -- and this was a bounceback for him! Jackson is a better player than Avi, nobody is going to dispute that. But there's more to it than just that.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 07:41 PM) The only assets Jackson would cost is money. Jackson defense alone is a big upgrade over Avi. the assets are the opportunity cost. You're spending money and a roster spot and basically giving up on what could be an asset in the future -- Avi -- and for what? You're giving up flexibility that could be used on a much better upgrade later on. You guys that are pining for Jackson -- have you watched him play since he left Detroit? He's on the wrong side of 30 and put up a whopping 1.7 bWAR last year. Steamer projects him for 1.1 fWAR. He's no great shakes and you're asking him to play RF mostly, where he's played a total of 22 games in his career. The upgrade to go get is Fowler. That is a clear upgrade. Jackson is not worth the opportunity cost.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 07:23 PM) Then they should go out and add Jackson. I'm not ready to pull my pitchfork out just yet, but there is absolutely no excuse for not adding another OF. It would be a sign that the front office is still high on Avi as an OF, which is an incredibly risky gamble to take given how winnable this division is this year. Hahn should be held accountable if Avi is given a starting role and he ends up being one of the primary reasons we miss the playoffs this year. Put the pitchfork down and take a deep breath. I'll go ahead and say right now that the difference between Jackson's 2016 WAR and Avi's will be under 1, plus or minus.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 07:23 PM) Then they should go out and add Jackson. I'm not ready to pull my pitchfork out just yet, but there is absolutely no excuse for not adding another OF. It would be a sign that the front office is still high on Avi as an OF, which is an incredibly risky gamble to take given how winnable this division is this year. Hahn should be held accountable if Avi is given a starting role and he ends up being one of the primary reasons we miss the playoffs this year. Why would they give up assets for Austin Jackson? Austin Jackson's .5 to 1.5 WAR is not going to do jack s*** better to just tell Avi to sink or swim. If Avi is -2 WAR in June and the Sox are in contention then you bring in a guy like Jackson but not until then. Better to hold onto the assets and see how things look later on. If some stud 3-5 WAR OF was available then yea sure, fug Avi, but replacing Avi with Jackson is fools gold.

Team is better on paper right now then it was this time last year. Avi is a year older and a year further out from that s***ty injury. Carlos has a good 100+ innings of MLB work under his belt. Latos is better than Danks. Danks himself is better than '15 Johnson. I'm excited for the season. Last year I was hoping for 86 wins and realistically thinking 82. This year I'm hoping for 88 and realistically thinking 84, which could perhaps trigger a play in game for the 2nd wild card. Let's get this ish going. Too bad my car is in the shop and pending the cost to fix it probably will have to cancel my plans to head down to Tempe next month.

I usually go for peanuts and popcorn and beer. Camden Yards had 22 oz Coors light for $3.49 and would sell them to me two at a time. That was nice. Safeco's cheapest beer is like $6.99 now and that's for a 12oz bud. At least they have really good beer (by the bleachers you can actually buy bombers of Stone for instance) at Safeco. At NYS and Citi field they have piss that they charge $8 for. Citi field has kind of a cool concessions the "Pepsi Porch" where you can get a hot dog then basically have a little buffet style topping bar included. Can load it up with whatever you like. Haven't been to the cell in forever but I do always remember getting a brat with my dad when we went. As a kid tho everything tastes good.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Feb 15, 2016 -> 03:36 PM) There also wasn't a great alternative in the first half, the entire team was horses*** against LHP last year. Once Trayce came up LaRoche basically saw no time against lefties, but I'm not going to blame Robin too much for sending him out there in the first half when pretty much the only other option was Bonifacio. Doh, they signed a super sub to play against LHP then forgot him. As for LaRoche, 20% of his PA last year were against LHP, that's a pretty big chunk of his time and he posted an OPS+ of 8 against them. It's not just that he's bad against LHP, HE SHOULD NEVER FACE LHP.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 15, 2016 -> 01:45 PM) I might be the only person, but I am expecting a bounce back season from LaRoche. Dead cat bounce maybe, that's all I see. His splits against LHP have been horse s*** since '12 and with the way RV loves to trot him about there against LHP he's going to have another s*** year IMO. We'll see. I wish they would have just bought him out or traded him for pennies on the dollar. Roster spot is more useful imo.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Feb 11, 2016 -> 05:10 PM) Boras isn't Desmond agent my bad, that's the last time I rely on MLBtradrumors, they had a blurb on him saying Boris was his agent. Unless he changed recently it's "Sports One Athlete Solutions".

Where did Law have Anderson is his top 100? Thanks.

Boras getting desperate, better float some more rumors for his clients. Every single time Heyman posts something like this it's 100% Boras trying to stir up interest in his client. It might be true, but take it with a huge grain of salt.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 04:27 PM) Just to get it on the record, does this move seem more Hahn or KW? Didn't Williams covet Latos at one point or another (in all fairness, everyone did about three years ago)? The money screams Hahn and the player screams Williams. If this is an example of some FO synergy I will take it.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 03:58 PM) That doesn't really expand on why ... Just like most people here, I'm sure we are happy AJ was here. I feel like I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt. Not going to say any names, but a lot of these guys aren't exactly saints. I've seen them out and about at bars sans wife before... just saying. Throw the ball well, keep your ERA down, and play to win the game. That's what I'm here to see. I'm not here to care if you have 10 gf's outside of your wife. I'm here to see your baseball skills and get a win. As long as he's not abusing anyone, he's fine on my team. Yea this. He seems like he's a dick towards women but if that is an issue than f*** who you gonna sign? Just don't hit women. But cheating and sleeping around and leading girls on? Par for the course for pro athletes.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 02:44 PM) There's gotta be incentives in this contract right? Very rarely do you see a guy 2 years removed from being a top tier pitcher take a flat $3 million one year deal. Probably just the promise to compete for a spot in the rotation out of spring. At this point, how many teams were offering that and were willing to just do a one year deal? He might have had a two year deal on the table elsewhere but decided to try and rebuild some value in Chicago. He has a good year for Chicago he could easily be looking at a two or even three year deal for 20+ million next offseason.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 02:40 PM) Low Risk/High Reward is definitely a thing.. the probability of high reward is very small but the cost of the player is so low that it's worth the shot.. Right, in this case he's not blocking a prospect and he's not taking a 25 man spot away from anyone that's a difference maker so there's not much opportunity cost there. It's three million, which is chicken scratch in today's market and he could possibly bounce back and have a 2-3 WAR season. It's a fine deal, they probably were able to convince him to sign based on playing time and Cooper.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Feb 9, 2016 -> 02:34 PM) Anyway possible to build a package around Johnson for Puig? And not being laughed out of the building? _________ This is a low risk, low reward move IMO. I really don't see how a guy that hasn't pitched a full season in over four years is gonna turn it around abut hey Coop'el'fix'em right? If someone gets hurt and he steps into the 5th starter role he has more upside than Beck or similar AAAA fodder so that's good but I'm not expecting much from him. Edit: doh, looking at his B-Ref page all wrong. Well, he has been pitching full seasons. This is a better move than I thought.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 5, 2016 -> 06:02 PM) There were a few different things talked about at times. The dome in Tampa was built with the hope of luring the White Sox. The team bought land in Addison and thought about that for a while. Those were the two real things I remember being talked about during that stretch. Further back in history there were times where they almost moved to Milwaukee and Seattle IIRC. Thanks for the info I'm glad they stayed in the city. Some very fond memories of road trips down from N. MI with my dad "we're doing it without stopping to piss son" to New Comiskey. As a kid, having the stadium right in the middle of what felt like the busiest, coolest place in the world was neat.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 5, 2016 -> 05:45 PM) Only two parks were built between 1974 and 1991, which were the SkyDome and Tropicana in Tampa. New Comiskey was literally the first open air ballpark built in the US since Kaufman Stadium in 1973. While they could have done more, literally every ballpark that came after that, which is over 20, took from their mistakes and learned from them. The Sox didn't have that luxury. For sure, the timing was poor and it's hard to knock Chicago for going with a rather bland design when at that point it's just what you did. At least they kept the park in the City and didn't move it to the burbs. I don't know much about the history of it, was only a young kid when the Cell opened, was there talk of moving out of the south side?

I usually defend the Cell but the only park built around the same time that it can beat is Comerica. I cannot stand Comerica's sight lines. The Cell is just about as "cookie cutter" of a design as you can use for a ballpark. It reminds me some of Safeco except that Safeco pretty much did everything better including a removable roof, less steep upper deck, and city views from the upper concourses. If you're gonna do "cookie cutter" design, Safeco is how you do it.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Feb 5, 2016 -> 01:21 AM) Is your opinion of his swing Pre-AFL, where he changed his swing and saw instant and eye-popping results? Because I think that's significant to those who ask if his AFL results were random. Well the video I was watching was him at the recent Sox "hitting clinic" so yea. I don't pretend to be an expert on the baseball swing by any stretch but I do know that guys that have that big of a load mechanism (recent Sox example has to be Brent Morel) -- often will struggle to adjust to the additional 2-5mph they are going to see on fastballs at MLB level. We'll see if he can produced this year at AA that will be the big measuring stick. Everything he's done so far points to progress but he's also old for his level and this will be his first chance to prove he's a legit prospect IMO.