chitownsportsfan

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 16, 2015 -> 06:52 PM) Same here. And I'm very sad that Hawk won't be there tonight. It's just not the same without his wit and charm. lol. Everything about this franchise is stale and old. Wheels are coming off everywhere including in the broadcast booth. Why the Sox continue to put up with Hawk's' poor health and inability to sit in the booth when the team sucks in September is beyond me. I guess like many loyal employees he's earned the right to fire himself from the ORG. They extended it to RV and KW, might as well extend it to Hawk.

Wait, this actually f***ing happened? How many damn times does RV have to send a position player out to pitch. IT'S EXPANDED ROSTERS HOW THE f*** DO YOU NOT HAVE A PITCHER READY TO GO IN?

Adam Eaton has a higher ISO power than Avi and Laroche. FML

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 03:50 PM) You should go BPA in the first round. Then after that is when you start playing the underslot/overslot game to make sure you have the money to sign everyone. I think LDF saw everyone talking about BPA in last years thread but it was simply about round 1. I think the rule is "there is no hard and fast rule". North Sider nailed it earlier I think you have to evaluate each pick holistically with the goal at the end of having a good draft. Sometimes things really fall into place and a guy like Rodon or even Adams falls and you sure as hell make sure you have enough money to sign them even if it means going underslot later rounds.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 11, 2015 -> 03:28 PM) Yet the Cubs are the envy of a lot of Soxtalk, and besides Schwarber and Bryant, how many of their own draft picks dot their roster? I am pretty sure the White Sox have more of their own picks on theirs and what they do is wrong. Well, they've gotten a combined 11.7 fWAR out of Rizzo, Schwarber and Byrant. Rizzo I will lump in there as homegrown 'cause Theo drafted him and then smartly traded for him when he took the job. That's an excellent foundation. I'd be absolutely thrilled if Rodon, Sanchez, Saladino, Trayce etc give the Sox even 3/4 of that production next year. They deserve a ton of praise of those picks and the development. It's hard to parse out what is more important id'ing the talent or developing it but it's fairly clear they do both better than the Sox at the moment. They've also made some incredibly savvy trades -- akin to the Avi deal except they actually got good players like Russel. Looking at their fangraphs page Cubs fans should be ready for some big time regression next year. IMO they look a lot like the 2014 Mariners with over 2/3 the roster blowing through their median case scenario. That said, compared to the Sox they are ballin' out with home grown studs. They haven't even gotten anything from Soler or Baez and both those guys could easily give them 4-6 fWAR next year combined. If so, then well there goes that negative regression from other roster spots. It's hard to over state how badly the Sox whiffed (so far) with Avi. I was high on him but FFS he's not even close to an average starter right now. He's got one more year to produce anything. If not, just another Viciedo.

Probably because someone with a spreadsheet convinced JR that spending money on draft picks will often save you money in the long run. Baseball has changed rapidly in the last 5 years home grown talent gets locked up. The best talents never reach FA and the mediocre vets that do reach FA are so expensive and not "sure things: thus it's incredibly variant and silly to rely on them for wins. Mediocre talents Panda, Hanley and even La Roche and Melky are what you can buy on the FA market. Mike Trout isn't walking through that door. Hell, neither is Albert Belle.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 10:46 PM) Those aren't projections, those are what he's produced, it was a joke based on the fact that he's very slightly improving on awful performances year-by-year. But, fwiw, projection systems got Avi's performance this year pretty much spot on. Also worth mentioning the projections had the White Sox at about 78 wins, whilst 92% of soxtalk had them at 80+: http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...amp;pid=3129545 In the year MLB broke the projections I have to love your incessantly gleeful "told you so!" message. Seriously, the Mets, Yankees and Cubs are laughing at not only the Sox but also your myopic view of the data that confirms your hypothesis about not only Avi but this Sox team.. We can't really predict MLB teams. What we can say is that there are good teams and bad ones. The Sox have been awful for 5+ years. Fire the f***ing men responsible.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 12:59 PM) lol @ learning something. Clinging to the same old outdated cliches isn't going to teach anyone anything. This is the exact mentality that brings us back decades to White Flag any time a trade is made. You seem to bring up that trade more than the rest of the board combined.

The Mariners rushed Zunino and possibly (probably) ruined him. He was trying to adjust his swing while full time catching and goodness what a waste of a 2nd overall pick. I find the Mariners and Sox have many similiarites as franchises and inabiliy to develop position players, often because they rush them, is one of them. Please, do NOT RUSH Tim Anderson next year.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 11:02 PM) I think he can. Johnsons stock is very important and his performance was huge. Rock do you have any insight into the Hahn KW dynamic? Thanks for any info you might have even if it's a no comment or no info. I respect your info even if I often disagree with what you have to report. thanks man.

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Sep 10, 2015 -> 01:35 AM) Just move on Sox FO. It was worth the shot IMO. Didn't work out. That's baseball. Let's stick to our "retooling" plan. Got some nice young prospects. Let's move Q for the right young cost controlled bat. I agree that is was the right move (or at least a positive one) and that it's now time to move on. It happens. It's like making a move in Risk with 2x the armies of your opponent. Hey, sometimes the roll of the dice f*** you. Time to move on. Don't offer him the QO. He'll take it imo.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:37 PM) You keep highlighting this "expected 2.5 career WAR" draft pick, which is a terrible way to look at draft picks. We get it, most draft picks amount to nothing. But occasionally, a guy drafted in the comp round ends up a 10 WAR player or even a 20 WAR player. This isn't a bell curve with 2.5 as the mean. It's a skewed distribution, but one with some big payoffs if you select the right player. And a significant part of that payoff is the surplus value a good pick provides, which is the lifeblood of successful organizations. By treating all WAR the same and ignoring the financial cost to acquire said production, your logic basically devalues draft picks of all rounds, with maybe the exception of the 1st overall pick. Also, there is almost no chance Shark accepts the QO. He won't get the seven figure deal he was hoping for, but some team will offer him a James Shields contract. Scouts have always loved the arm and there is always one GM willing to do something stupid in free agency. It's the expected WAR there's no other way to look at it. It's like saying "oh I expect THIS lottery ticket to really pay off!" If the Sox were getting comp pick after comp pick sure, then there is a coherent strategy but this is a one off thing and it comes at a very real cost -- overpaying a 1 WAR Shark when they are already approaching max payroll. If the Sox committed to a full tear down and rebuild then HOLISTICALLY you could justify taking the comp pick as part of an internally coherent strategy but it's quite clear that is not the plan. The only way to look at these things is through the expected WAR. Yea, they could hit the jackpot but the odds are stacked against them. In my risk assesment the odds of Shark taking the QO and f***ing them for 2016 is a greater risk than the upside of picking in the 40-50 range. I mean WTF about the White Sox drafting in that pick range makes you think they are EVEN going to get that? This is the last I will post on this. Draft picks are highly, highly over valued by most fans. If the Sox could sell the the pick they'd get about 12-15 million for it at absolute most, which reflects the value of the expected WAR perfectly.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:35 PM) Samardzija deserves credit for doing his best to get the Sox a top ten pick. The should just DFA him that would be awesome.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:35 PM) Garcia has massively sucked this year. But with Melky, we knew what we were getting defensively. Offensively, has he underperformed? Yes. But has he massively sucked? No. He has been excellent with RISP and his .271 batting average is at least respectable. Melky has sucked. If we're going by BA as the metric than Garcia is a whopping 2 points lower. They both have sucked. Right there is fugging 4-6 WAR that the team really f***ing needed and did not get. Instead they got negative WAR. Hard to figure how hard some of these guys suck. Makes me want to change the manager ya know?

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:29 PM) Well, I wouldn't say his bad pitching this year is entirely due to strikeouts. I think it's mostly his command. Anyway, it wouldn't be a drastic spike in his K/9. It would still be subpar by his (former) standards. His command is garbage. He leaves the ball up and over the plate on his "splitter" way too often. Doesn't split. Reminds me of Contreras at times. Probably would be better served trying to improve his changeup.

ERA approaching 5. At this point I'm rooting for him to sit on the bench the rest of the year. Let Johnson get his innings. Hell, give them to Frankie. Just bench this guy.

Quite a few ND fans that I talk to online warmed me about this guy and I said whatever as long as he performs I don't really care if he's a massive douche. Well, apparently not only can he not perform on the field he also loves to ogle the fans' wives that sit behind the dugout at the Cell. That was the report I read on a UM football board from a ND fan that posts there. This was back in August. What a dick this guy is just get him out of here.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:50 PM) Trayce gets an initial bad read but makes up for it with his athleticism. Also with every run Samardzija gives up it makes me more worried he won't get signed until after next year's draft. That ERA won't stop rising. The answer is simple: cut bait on the guppy. The expected 2.5 WAR from the draft pick over the course of his career simply is not worth the very good chance that Shark accepts the QO.

QUOTE (Mike F. @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 08:17 PM) Guppy fuggin blows. amazing cooper hasn't told him to stop throwing so many meatballs. Real coaching issue. This fugging guy man.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:20 PM) Shark taking the QO and the White Sox trading Quintana as a result is not the worst thing in the world. Sale/Shark/Rodon/Johnson/Danks is a nice rotation Unless they nail that trade that would be one of the most fan murdering things ever. And does anyone think they will "get right" a trade for position players? I certainly don't. Ugh, no Q and Shark at 17-18 million. That would be hard to f***ing stomach. I view Shark as a bum. Q is not a bum. Q is worth cheering for. Shark is not imo.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:19 PM) I'm a huge advanced stats guy and while Samardzija may have been a tad bit unlucky (though as you say his FIP still isn't good), that only really matters in projecting his future production, which hopefully won't be with us. Unlucky or not, he gave up all those runs, and so EJ doesn't really have that high of a bar to reach for next season if he wants to replace that "production". Yep good point. Those runs count whether they were lucky or not. Well put Omar you brought the shutgun .

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:08 PM) I don't want to know what 3/4 the production of a 4.87 ERA is, but I hope Johnson can do much better than that. Well according to the batted ball stats Sharks' been a little unlucky on his HR/FB rate and strand rate. That said, his xFIP is still a very pedestrian 4.22. I reconsider. Johnson can give you 100% of 2015 Shark at 1/10 or less of the cost. Shark has been s***. He's really a symbol of the failed offseason and season.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 9, 2015 -> 03:28 PM) I know the QO is based on the average salary of the top 125 salaries so maybe Levine has been doing some math in his free time. If so, I have to give Levine some credit but it would have been nice if he had mentioned how he came up with the number. 17.1M does not sound like too big of a stretch. I think what's important is that Samardzija is still likely to reject the QO which is good news. Time for the Sox and Samardzija to part ways. Hopefully Erik Johnson continues to pitch well during the rest of the season and makes it easier for the SOX to move on. The 4 years 70 million is about what I figured and I also figured Shark would bet on himself (because he's Shark!...) and turn those offers down. Now, if someone gives him 2 years 40 million, he'll probably take it because he can rehab his value and get that "lifetime" 6-8 year deal he no doubt thinks he's worth and covets. Personally I will be pretty miffed if we see Shark next year at 17.1 million. They have other holes that many could go to. Insert Johnson into the rotation he'll give you 3/4 the production most likely at 1/10th the cost.

Great to see Rodon and Trayce play well. Seems like Avi might finish strong as well. Avi has to hit 280 or higher if he's ever going to be a solid starter. I give him a pass this year because of all the time he missed from the injury and even though he got in some games last year a major injury like that isn't easy to overcome. But next year he has to hit 285/335/450 as his defense is what it is at this point.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Sep 4, 2015 -> 01:54 PM) If you can't understand why it's a valuable pick, I can't really help you. I love when people get cocky about stuff they don't understand, it's endearing. if you can't understand simple WAR charts then I can't help you. Most comp picks never even make the MLB. I was wrong: the expected WAR is about 2. It's nothing. It's valuable in aggregate, ie you are getting comp pick after comp pick. In isolation it's nothing. Are the Sox really willing to pay shark around $16 million to get a shot at 2 WAR? I hope not.