Everything posted by Dick Allen
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Sox Hire Rowand as New Minor League Coach
He seems like he could be a good coach. If his work ethic from his playing days rolls over, that should be a huge plus.
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Sox Hire Rowand as New Minor League Coach
Sisson must have been let go. He's now the hitting coach at Auburn replacing the Greg Norton.
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Neil Walker on the Block
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 01:05 PM) As I've said seemingly thousands of times, the only people calling them "ironclad" are those who are setting up strawmen against them, typically in exapserated justification of using a number to try to explain a phenomenon that it was never intended to explain. Every stat has a purpose, and some are better than others. Each is good at telling you some things, and not at telling you others. Some are more reliable at others. If you insist on viewing the situation in a black & white, all or nothing, SABRS VS JOCKS, "I know everything or else I know nothing" manner, then none of this will make sense to you. If someone misuses a stat, and someone else tries to explain how it should be used properly, the result is not evidence that all numbers are a lie. Misuses a stat? He put up a 1.8 WAR. That's better than several guys owed more money. How come you don't get so upset when guys were posting that Danks sucked 3 out of every 4 starts when that was totally false? I did use saber guys because it was you and your buddy witesoxfan who told me Duke's career numbers were meaningless. He was well worth the contract he was given. One all that mattered was the previous season. Danks, all that matters is everything but the previous season. But if you read your post and your conclusions, the black and white you complain about, is exactly what you are doing.
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Neil Walker on the Block
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 12:43 PM) That's not true. Two things: 1. The $/WAR thing does NOT say "Player x's performance was worth $y because of z WAR." The $/WAR thing DOES say "Teams have paid an average of $x per WAR in the most recent offseason free agent market." It's very natural to want to draw an equivalency of dollars to raw value, but it doesn't work specifically because the number ONLY applies to free agent dollars. In other words, the price paid is for marginal wins from entities that already have MOST of their total wins in the bank at substantially lower costs (in the form of controllable players, both pre-free agency and post-free agency players that outproduce their contracts). The actual dollar value per win in the MLB is way, way lower because of guys like Mike Trout or Jacob DeGrom. Additionally, the $/WAR model shows that the rate teams pay is NOT linear at all. As the yearly salary figure increases, the rate of return decreases -- players essentially give a "discount" on a per WAR basis in exchange for more years or just a lot of money anyway. The whole thing tends to top out around $30m no matter who we're talking about. 2. That John Danks put up a 1.8 fWAR season does not mean he is "a 1.8 fWAR pitcher." Good on him for having a great year and approximating a league average player in 2015, but as I pointed out before, that number is just one of a larger data set, and that larger data set points to him NOT repeating his success going forward. He was a lot better than the "he sucks 3 out of every 4 starts" hyperbole we read on this board in 2015. It is funny how iron clad these advanced stats supposedly are at times, and how other times, well, xxx happened, and you can't expect xxx to happen...Go back to the Zach Duke signing. I ranted against it. You saber guys were saying he is a totally different pitcher. Nothing he did before 2014 was relevant. Danks is a different pitcher. Perhaps more healthy. He was throwing a little harder near the end of the season. Now, what he did in 2011-2014 IS relevant. Whether you are totally saber, totally old school, or a mix, we all can spin the numbers around to make the guys we like look good, and the guys we think suck, to suck. I do it, you do it, everyone who reads this does it.
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Neil Walker on the Block
QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 10:38 AM) Just to zero in the IP/start thing, that's pretty much the new normal. I isolated the AL because the NL's pinch hitting tendencies would throw things off, and out of 97 pitchers who made at least 10 starts, the average length of a Danks start ranked 44th. Six innings per start isn't a rarity, but it's not a given. 57th in IP. Less than 2 a team that were higher than him.
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Neil Walker on the Block
QUOTE (Dunt @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 10:20 AM) 4.71 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.65 xFIP, 6.28 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, averaging 5.9 innings a start. Not exactly good. It apparently was worth $14 million. If advanced stats are to be believed, he is a 1.8 WAR left handed pitcher. If you eat a little money, those guys should bring you back something useful if it is determined he can do it again.
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Neil Walker on the Block
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 09:58 AM) Which is an outlier on his entire post-injury career: 0.3, 0.2, 0.5, 1.8 -- 2015 Steamer projection: 0.8 Neil Walker during the same period: 2.7, 2.6, 3.7, 2.4 -- 2016 Steamer projection: 2.6 Walker also makes half the money and they have the same one year of control. Those aren't even REMOTELY equivalent trade assets. Never mentioned anything about Walker. All I stated was Danks apparently isn't as bad as a lot of people think, if we look at advanced stats.
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Neil Walker on the Block
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 23, 2015 -> 09:14 AM) What year is this? Danks for someone of value? Guys Danks put up a 1.8 WAR last season, valued at $14 million per fangraphs. Apparently he isn't as overpaid as he is made out to be overpaid.
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NCAA basketball 2015-16 thread
QUOTE (Brian @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 06:58 AM) Did they get rid of the under 4 minute TV break? I was watching as Illinois was up. Play dead at 3:58 left so I took dog out, came back in and they were down 3 with like 1:30 left. I rewound it and saw they didn't do the usual 4 minutes left commercial. No, but if a team took a TO within 30 seconds of the under 4 Media TO, that becomes a media TO now. It gors for all media TOs.
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White Sox still deciding on what to do
QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 22, 2015 -> 06:29 AM) here is a question i am still asking..... at what point is the difference of the term "blow up and retool"??? so the statement of blowing up when the sox got rid of 3 or 4 players is a blowing up or retooling??? I think when you have 1 position player left from 3 seasons ago, it is a rebuild. I don't think the semantics matter much, the fact is, except for pitchers, which almost universally the opinion is the White Sox do a decent job of developing, there is one player left since Hahn became the GM. I don't think they will stop trying to win now. It would be nice if a guy they developed actually was able to hit and field. Maybe it will happen. Maybe LaRoche is what they thought they signed in 2016. They will need some things to go right, but I don't see how they are any farther away than they were last year.
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White Sox still deciding on what to do
QUOTE (Vance Law @ Nov 21, 2015 -> 09:42 PM) The Sox did blow it up. In 2013/2014 when they got rid of Rios, Santiago, Reed, Peavy, De Aza, Beckham, Dunn and let go AJ, Konerko, Viciedo. The only position player left from the 2012 team is Tyler Flowers. Exactly. Avi Garcia is the second longest tenured position player on the team.
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White Sox still deciding on what to do
QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 20, 2015 -> 01:51 PM) Sure KW reported to JR when he had Ricks job, but now has to deal with KW and JR. Its not that Hahn can do no wrong, it would just be nice to see what he could do without be saddled with KW and his ego. KW had his run, his legacy is a line of wildly inconsistent rosters, robbing tomorrow to pay for today. When Hahn took over the moves he orchestrated were aimed at building consistency within the organization, but then we saw a flutter of moves that contradicted that strategy so that question becomes is someone else pulling the strings or is Hahn too undisciplined to stick with his own plan? There is no way to know on the outside, but when you see some of the trademarks of KW's administration rearing their head its a natural assumption that KW is still pulling the strings that stand in the way of Hahn's plan. And when you are mixed between two plans, there is no real path to success, the team ends up in purgatory, not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to add franchising altering talent in the draft and Intl FA. And the robbing tomorrow to pay for today is tired as well. Yeah he traded a lot of prospects. The vast majority of which sucked. I wouldn't mind if KW hit the road, but to think he is saddling Hahn, or another site I read said his quotes were "throwing him under a bus" are just made up based on nothing observations. Whether people want to admit it or not, JR is a pretty smart guy, and he has better access to KW/RH than any of us here. If he thought KW was the problem many here like to think he is, he would be gone in a minute. Hahn isn't a puppet. I don't believe KW when he said he has never overruled Hahn, I have a good source that says he has at least once, but sometimes a differing opinion and discussion is positive in the decision making process.
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Cubs will try to recruit players by not winning
I wonder why that strategy hasn't worked the last 20 or 30 years. Players follow the money.
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2015-16 NCAA Football Thread
QUOTE (gatnom @ Nov 20, 2015 -> 09:34 AM) This isn't saying anything about Illinois relative to Miami, but you really underestimate how bad the B1G west is. Terrible, still 3 top 25 teams
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 06:45 PM) It's basically saying he can be though. He doesn't look anything near that now. Obviously he isn't if he hasn't done it. Posters mention players ceilings all the time. That is best case scenario. The problem IMO with Avi and a lot of White Sox players recently, is they are not high baseball IQ guys, and that hurts you in so many ways. You make bad decisions on the bases, in the field, and at the plate. It takes those guys longer to adjust back after pitchers and defenses have adjusted to them. While high ceilings are great, and you need to have these guys in your organization , relying on that being reached or coming close is fools gold.
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
QUOTE (Soxfest @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 06:28 PM) Garcia’s biggest fan seems to be Executive Vice President Ken Williams, who made a comment to reporters prior to Thursday’s game about the young outfielder sporting a 30/30 ceiling. That is 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in a single season. Williams made a similar comment regarding Garcia’s speed in February as reported by MLB.com’s Scott Merkin: Saying he has a 30/30 ceiling isn't saying he is a 30/30 guy. And if he could swing at pitches he could hit, he might reach that ceiling. Where they were way off was defensively. They thought he was a CF.
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
QUOTE (Soxfest @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 06:03 PM) Same Sox management who said he was a 30/30 guy are the same wanting to trade him. Sox are lacking badly in talent evaluation. Do you have a link where someone in Sox management said he was a 30/30 guy?
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Neil Walker on the Block
QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 12:45 PM) For those wondering if Walker can play 3B, he last played 3B in MLB in 2010. With the shortage of 3B, he could probably make himself some cash money if he figured out how to be decent there.
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 12:12 PM) It wasn't just Baez, he would have been the centerpiece of a package. The Cubs still love Baez. There are some in their organization who think he would be a better SS than Russell.
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 11:31 AM) I wonder if the Cubs would trade Baez for Avi and Danish/Beck/etc? Maybe if Hahn threw in Davidson.
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
If you can use him as a kicker for something you really like, you trade him, but if he has an option left, you don't give him away for junk. He does have talent. If he doesn't show up hitting this spring, and isn't changed by a trip to Charlotte, so what.
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Neil Walker on the Block
QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 11:15 AM) Does trayce signal youth movement or d movement? I think the latter. Swapping out Avi for Trayce adds 3 months to the White Sox age.
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 11:04 AM) ok now i see the point. he was stating for having a bad start and then started about having confidence in the FO. ok. Kris Bryant's July makes me really question Theo.
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
QUOTE (bruni @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 10:35 AM) Eaton - poor 2 month+ start (along with several others) helped doom this team in 2015. Abreu - they won a bidding war on a guy who looks more and more like Trumbo since 2nd half 2014 than any player that can carry a team to the WS going forward. Furthermore he looks increasingly fragile and is better served as our DH vs 1B. Rodon and Fullmer - you and I could pick top rated undergrad pitching prospects - - this is not evidence of superior or even above average talent evaluation, but merely the byproduct at being a really bad team several years in a row. Montas - potential yes, but let's not make this out as a huge win at this time - - look at his ERA from his cup of coffee in the bigs last season. Power pitching without control does little good. Anderson - we don't know what he can do at the MLB level (and likely wont until late 16 or 2017) but so many are drinking the kool aid here. How many wins is he going to earn this team in 2016? In the meantime our current brain trust (in the middle of their "3-year plan", remember) put bottom 5 production at C, 2B, SS, 3B and RF and bottom 10 production at DH and LF. How do players like Anderson and Fullmer even make an impact in this '3 year' window? How you can point this as proof of a front office we should have confidence in is beyond me. Other than identifying Q as a lottery ticket to target, I fail to see much that gives me confidence in the current and stale 'brain-trust'. Yeah Abreu looks like Trumbo. GMAB.
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White sox open to trading Avisail Garcia
QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Nov 19, 2015 -> 10:32 AM) Right because the Sox have never made a good trade or picked up guys undervalued by other clubs that turned out well for them. The Sox have done a very poor job of developing position players, but they've done OK in trades and international signings, this narrative that they're 100% incompetent when it comes to identifying talent is so lazy and tired. It really is. If someone really feels that way, they won't be happy with whatever hitter the White Sox acquire, and will be in rip mode when the deal is made. These guys do have a World Championship ring. They haven't developed hitters for a while but have recognized good ones through the years.