witesoxfan

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 16, 2017 -> 04:18 PM) The basic problem is - guys were saying there was no way he could keep that BABIP up for the rest of the season at the AS break, and it's actually gone up in the 2nd half and not down. Once you see that, something that you said baseball will not allow happen actually happens, you have to stop and reevaluate what can and can't happen. Somehow he's done this. He's gotten better, not worse, with the exception of that one injury. So now we have to stop and back out to some different number, because this season has happened and it's a complete season. BABIP stabilizes for hitters at 800 balls in play. Garcia has put 351 in play this year. His current BABIP is noise.

QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 16, 2017 -> 01:57 PM) Mariners are on their way to a loss and under .500. Twins with a 2 game lead on the Angels with 15 left. Twins-- 2 vs Tor 3 at NY 4 at Det 3 at Cle 3 vs Det Angels-- 2 vs Tex 3 vs Cle 3 at Hou 4 at Sox 3 vs Sea If they tie, the game is in Minnesota. I foresee at least 5 losses for LAA and at least 5 wins for MIN, which would mean the Angels would have to go 9-1 and the Twins would have to go 1-9 for LAA to catch them. That thing's over.

QUOTE (WBWSF @ Sep 16, 2017 -> 09:01 AM) If I were Rick Hahn I would have resigned as the White Sox GM. He has been the worse GM in modern White Sox history. (post 1951) He has been a flop as the GM. Between his lousy drafts, trades and free agent signings he should hang his head in shame and leave the scene. Being a lifelong Cubs fan he should try to hook up for another job at Wrigley Field.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Sep 16, 2017 -> 03:43 AM) He's looked like a DFA or non-tender every season we've had him except this one. Going to laugh at all you fools once AGAIN when he reverts to his usual self next year. But hopefully someone gives us something good before then so we don't have to experience that. It's a quintessential Billy Beane trade. Sell high after the career year and get toolsy high upside players who had down years. Rinse repeat. Avisail Garcia is a better player than you are giving him credit for.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 02:18 PM) That's true to an extent even if people don't like hearing it . There are tons of stats to look at but we always see one poster mention a stat or 2 to make his point while another poster will list 2 other stats to make his, We never get a valid complete analysis mainly because this is a place to write short quick answers or people skip your post . I often read whole threads from beginning to end but many don't and often the same things are said over and over. Now the argument is going around that Avi is a singles hitter and that's all he will ever be, But a simple look at his XBH % says its the best of his career .We are just taking our best guesses but so many feel validated and qualified to make statements where they are absolutely 100% cocksure of themselves because they found a few stats to support their argument and ignore the others. A competent and fair analyst should look at a stat , ask not only what does it tell me but what doesn't it tell me and follow his curiosity with an open mind without looking for validation of his initial thought process. If you are honest and make a statement like I am no expert or I don't feel qualified it is held against you. Like AHA ! you just said you aren't qualified and I am and my facts and opinion is better than yours because you admitted a weakness. What it boils down to in its most pure form on a message board is opinions are like assholes, everybody has one. Anybody that has ever suggested Avisail Garcia is a singles hitter is wrong. That is not an opinion, that is a fact. His career Iso is .139, which is basically Melky Cabrera's Iso. Melky hits a lot of singles, but he is a gap to gap hitter with the ability to hit the ball out. Juan Pierre was a singles hitter. Dee Gordon is a singles hitter. Guys that are singles hitters really don't make it in the majors unless they continually hit about .320 and/or have good speed and/or play great defense and/or draw walks and/or have a ton of versatility.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 01:31 PM) What if we signed Avi to 4/60 right now? Buy out his Arb years and get a 2 year extension? edit: I'm not really advocating htis, I'd rather we just let him play and then if he's still good either let him leave or sign him. But I question the "he'll get 100million" ideas. I would say that $15 mill per year is about what I'd value him at, but would base the next two years based on the standard 40/60/80 arbitration value. Say 4/$52, $9 mill in 2018, $12 mill in 2019, $15 mill in 2020, $15 mill in 2021, $18 million option for 2022 or a $1 mill buyout.

The Indians have the longest winning streak in the history of baseball. People should be making a bigger deal out of this.

I am now anticipating that 0/43 slump that drops Garcia below .300.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 12:07 PM) Update on xStats numbers: .296/.346/.493 with a .337 BABIP I still don't think we'd get much for him in the offseason but if the right deal was there I'd absolutely pull the trigger. Extending him seems premature too though so I'd wait and see, even if he has another good year next year he still wouldn't be too expensive. If he puts up somewhere around the line above next year then you can think about extending him, though the number of years would be more more important IMO than the AAV. This is a good post.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 08:24 AM) Now you guys have gone beyond where I feel qualified to make an assertion. This entire business of launch angles, and BABIP is a nuance, about which I claim no expertise. Please enlighten me, from an objective perspective, if that's possible. Just how realistic is it, for a guy who has demonstrated his ability to barrel up the ball, to alter his approach, in an attempt elevate his hits, and thus hit more home runs? Can it be significantly accomplished and at what expense? Isn't it logical that a player's batting average will suffer? There does not seem to be a consensus on this subject, at least not on this board. Avisail Garcia is running a .397 BABIP. The two players closest to him are Miguel Sano and Chris Taylor, both at .379. The last guy to be in the .390s over a full season was Chris Johnson in 2013. What Avisail is doing is great, but he is not a true talent .333 hitter. He is probably closer to that of a .300 guy. Also, it is not easy to increase launch angles. There are plenty of guys people say "well if they start hitting the ball in the air, they'd be better." While if I s*** gold, I'd be a millionaire. It takes a concerted effort and pitchers aren't throwing pitches up there so you can improve your launch angle. Yonder Alonson hit 20 homers in the first half of the season because he was able to lift the ball a bit better. Pitchers have made adjustments and he's only hit 5 in the second half while his ground ball percentage has increased from 30.2% in the first half to 38.5% in the second half, while his flyball percentage has gone from 48.7% to 35% over the same timeframe. That said, it can be done, and Daniel Murphy is the best example of what happens when a guy can do it and do it right. Most of the time, however, it involves sacrificing some contact to hit the ball further. If Avisail is a true .300 hitter, which is not out of the realm of possibility, and he maintains his gap to gap hitting while remaining a 15-20 homer hitter, he's still plenty valuable. QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 08:46 AM) Haven't you figure it out? Advanced metrics has made everyone an expert. Players don't improve or make adjustments. That metrics say what they are, end of story. No one has ever suggested any of this. There is no need to be snarky about this. Players make adjustments all the time and improve or worsen all the time for any number of factors. Advanced metrics just help us look for things going on behind the scenes that may paint a better picture. The game is not played on paper, but the details on paper help us figure out who is good and who is not. I don't remember the exact number, but show the true talent and quality of a team (aka statistical significance), it would take somewhere around 225-250 games. They obviously only play 162, which is how you end up with great teams missing the playoffs and underdogs making the playoffs.

Please feel free to publish my next article on Future Sox any time in the next couple weeks. " 'What's wrong with Courtney Hawkins and how to fix him' By wite What's wrong: he sucks. How to fix him: Have ron start a post about him telling the Sox to get rid of him.' "

For my own selfish reasons, the only thing I look forward to when I wake up every morning is Cody Asche's Blue Steel.

Maybe it's just because it's been so long, but Destiny 2 seems more fun than Destiny. Also, I have a ways to go till I'll be super relevant in multi-player, but I did make it up to 13 last night, so I'm close.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 03:31 PM) Cain gets hurt fairly regularly though. Glad to hear from a supporter that seeks an extension for Abreu. I wouldn't be upset if they extended him as long as it was a fairly modest extension. I wouldn't like a really long extension for him though. /dickjokes

QUOTE (hi8is @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 01:21 PM) It's over but it still hurts and will likely just keep stinging more. That all gets erased when we're a powerhouse. Until then, it's the line thorn remaining. Be happy that the were at least able to identify a talent like that in the prelim stage. It does sting, but the Sox still have a top 2 system in the game. And frankly, they'd have probably screwed up his development, LOL. He'd have hit .240 in Great Falls.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 02:27 PM) Just because you read the Sox aren't scouting him doesn't mean its true. I'm sure they have loads of current video on him .and are well aware of the unique position any team is in to get him without paying him a great deal. It would be negligence not to throw their hat in the ring. It is more likely the Sox make some effort than no effort at all. No front office in their right mind just realizes they won't get him . That would be a terrible way to run a ball club. I guess the way I view it is is that teams have a finite supply of resources, and if your chance is 0.1% that you are going to acquire a certain asset, you should spend a proportional amount of those resources on that asset. Do your due diligence, make a call to his agent, spend a little bit of time working him, but if there is no positive feedback, give up on it and move on.

Jose Abreu has skills that don't always age particularly well, while Lorenzo Cain does. Guys who are slow plodders with limited defensive skills do not age well. When Albert Pujols signed with the Angels, he was still one of the best hitters in the game. As it stands, he's one of the worst all around players in the game. That's why there is fear. Jose Abreu is a good player and will likely provide positive value until he is 36 or 37. There is reason to look to sign Abreu to an extension.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 02:10 PM) Does he go through the posting process? If so, Don't teams have to bid on him and the $300K/$10M is not the issue but who gives the most money to this controlling team to win the bid similar to Tanaka. Can it have been written in a contract somewhere that he splits that fee 50/50? Can this fee be $100M? The posting fee is a max of $20 million. Any and all teams will put up the $20 million, at which point he is able to negotiate with said teams. However, because of his age, there are limits as to what teams can give him as a bonus, unlike Tanaka, who was 25 when he signed his contract.

Indians win

Frankly, the best case scenario for the White Sox is that he signs somewhere, gets hurt or flops, and the Sox take a chance on him and he rebounds.

QUOTE (ron883 @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 12:25 PM) Good point. I looked it up and his 2015 season was better than I remembered. His war regressed every year up until this year, though. 2014: 5.3 war 2015: 3.2 war 2016: 1.8 war I'm not signing Jose after he has this great year. Chances are he regresses. Give him another year to prove himself before a long term contract. Of you are reading this Hahn, don't give him the aforementioned contract that pays him up to 20m a year. Literally no one has suggested the White Sox pay Abreu $20 million a year. Harry Chappas suggested they pay him $20 million over the next 2 years as part of a front loaded contract to offset the costs, while paying him $10 million in the final 2 years, allowing the Sox to spend more in the short term when they have an excess of funds while having more actual money to use later on. Because it would be a $15 million per year average, the cost of the contract would be $15 million per year towards the luxury tax, but by front loading it, it allows the Sox that much more money over the final two years of the deal, potentially allowing them to run a $160 million payroll even though they would only actually be paying $155 million.

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Sep 12, 2017 -> 08:37 PM) Kluber is winning AL Cy Young this year guys. He's been insane since recovering from that injury. Sale has an argument, especially if he reaches the 300 K mark, but IMO Kluber is and has been better. There is season left to decide it, but there's no question that Sale would have my vote right now.

QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 09:59 AM) Should we be worried about the dodgers? Thankfully it's September and not July or else I'd be worried.

I'm not aware of how lucrative sponsorships and endorsements are in Japan, but I'm guessing you can live off of them, much as you can in the States, and that says nothing of the same that he might be able to get here as well. LeBron James is worth $400 million and has "only" made $200 million from the NBA. Otani can easily become unfathomably rich even if he comes over next year and "only" receives a $30 million signing bonus.

QUOTE (Iwritecode @ Sep 13, 2017 -> 08:23 AM) The girls got their National Championship rings on Friday. They look good with the State Championship rings. On a personal note, I shot a 279 last night. Left one single 10-pin in the 8th frame or else I could've had 300. Ended with a 704 series. First 700 series in a long time. That is awesome, and that is also awesome. I hadn't bowled for a long time prior to last year, but finally built my strength back up and found my mechanics, only for the year to end and to lose them again. Bowling pretty regularly on Thursdays this year though, so hopefully they come back quickly. I had gotten to the point last year where I felt a anything less than 540 was disappointing and was expecting at least 600 every time out.