witesoxfan

Also, these same teams are interested in Chris Sale. And Jose Quintana. Because f*** it, we have to publish something.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 01:47 PM) Which one of Crawford or Ethier would have the closest value to Danks in a trade? That is absolutely Ethier. Crawford would probably be able to fetch a bit of young talent on the trade market with the Dodgers eating some of his salary, but Ethier probably fetches nothing. QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 01:54 PM) Kemp would look pretty neat in black and white pinstripes. He is an absolutely horrendous defender who is among the streakiest hitters in the game with $107 mill remaining on his contract. I want them to look elsewhere. QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 02:29 PM) The Angles would have to pay 22 million of the Hamilton contract for the Sox to bite and that obviously won't happen. They're stuck with him and Pujols like the Sox were stuck with Dunn. Someone's going to be stuck with Victor when he declines as well. And Shields. Etc. If the Sox acquired Hamilton in a buy low move, I'd want the Angels to pick up $60 million in some manner or another. That's an absolutely atrocious contract.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 01:15 PM) Crawford surprisingly hasn't been as useless as Danks, unfortunately. Ethier has though See, even Dodgers Digest has talked about it: http://dodgersdigest.com/2014/11/03/mailba...n-trading-puig/ (this was also mentioned in the comments for the FGs article The Dodgers still have too many outfielders.) I think that is the most logical move the Sox can make while gambling on Danks' value. If the Sox have to include a piece or the Dodgers do or the Dodgers have to eat some salary, so be it. However, I think they can save more money and get more value personnel-wise by moving Kemp or Crawford, and I think they'll continue using Ethier as a very expensive 4th outfielder unless someone is willing to eat his whole salary.

QUOTE (flavum @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 12:57 PM) 5 months until Opening Day! God you say it like that and it seems like an eternity from now.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 06:18 PM) Tyler Flowers' 2014 is incredibly similar to Jason Castro's 2013? Except Flowers was worth 1.8 WAR and Castro 4.3? And yeah, no s*** to the other stuff, that's why we're even talking about the possibility of getting him. No, we were talking about the possibility of gettnig him LAST offseason too. What I'm suggesting is that last year was the anomaly and this year was more normal. You're a numbers guy - look at Castro's career numbers and find the outlier. This is also why I hate just saying "look at his WAR, that's how good he was!" Look into why he had a high WAR and you'll notice that he was due for some regression. He's better than Tyler Flowers, but he's not way, way better than Tyler Flowers. I admittedly forgot how good Castro's numbers were in 2013, but he had a serious spike in his BABIP. Without cutting his strikeout rate a significant amount, I think we could see a similar regression for Flowers next year too. Just because you notice a spot of potential significant regression doesn't mean you splurge on someone who may simply not be that good. If you can get him cheaply, that's fine, take a shot, but I can pretty much guarantee it's not going to be cheap.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 6, 2014 -> 09:00 AM) There's a situation where I'd be in favor of this move, simply because it is an upside play. He's 28, he's left-handed, he is under control for 3 years, he would represent a substantial defensive upgrade in LF. However, that situation does NOT include a return of premium prospects. I think that their asking price will be high, but I don't think anyone will give them what they want. After his price comes down a bit, maybe we could get involved. Firstly, the Sox would HAVE to be comfortable with his medicals. Someone mentioned there are rumors that he's got some serious chronic knee issues. If that's the case, then no deal. But if our staff thinks that his injury history is just bad luck or, at the very least, is not indiciative of any specific long0term issues, then I'm in. Secondly, I think the centerpiece of the deal has to come from the second or third tier of our system. Someone like Chris Beck, Rangel Ravelo, or Adam Engel. Thirdly, Viciedo has to go back and represent SOME value. All in all, assuming the Sox get to look at him and don't find signs of chronic injury risk, I'd probably be comfortable with Beck + Viciedo + Trayce Thompson + some random, where the Rockies take on something like a quarter to a third of Gonzalez' salary. Here's why: I think the home/away split thing is way overstated. The fact is, nearly every player has a substantial home/away split. CarGo's is a bit bigger than normal, but just looking at the gap is misleading. You'd have to compare it to the average gap, and you see a much smaller effect. Also, it isn't rational to expect that he'd put up his career Away numbers in his new home park. His home number may be smaller, but they'll still be boosted home numbers. And the Cell is a bandbox too. Finally, this is a good chance to look at his career through the lense of park-adjusted wRC+. Since he got to Colorado, his wRC+ have been: 117, 144, 126, 119, 147, 83. So that's one down year among a whole bunch of great performances even AFTER adjusting for park. The dude can hit. Why is this different than VMart? It's an upside play. It's also risky, but it won't cost as much money and it's got a chance of producing substantial value the entire time he's here. So, I'm not saying I'm DEFINITELY for getting CarGo, but I do think that there is a plausible situation where I would be for it. It's worth us taking a long look, IMO. This is exactly how I feel.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 05:49 PM) I made this comment in the Montero thread: Replace Montero with Castro, 4.6 with 4.3 and 3 with 2.1 and I feel the exact same. Except that Castro's BABIP was pretty damn normal last year. He decreased his walks, increased his strikeouts, and started hitting a lot more ground balls. Tyler Flowers' 2014 is incredibly similar to Jason Castro's 2013. I don't think Castro is much of an upgrade at this point.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 05:44 PM) Plan C is about rights. I was looking at it and I am guessing that it wouldn't surprise me that the sox go with him as the only outfield acquisition. I am still thinking they, the management is planning on a huge int'l signing. disclosure - I am in no way having any inside info. just a fatarse gut. I would be beyond surprised if this is the only move they made for an outfielder.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 04:28 PM) He still has options? Even better. I have no idea, but I doubt he can refuse a minor league assignment and if someone claims him off waivers in the Spring, is anybody going to care?

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:57 PM) I sure hope that you guys are right. I know it' early, and it's just a gut feeling. As I posted a couple of days ago, Shuck doesn't look like a very good player. The moment the Sox acquire someone better to play the outfield, I'll be relieved. They don't have to acquire someone better than JB Shuck. They already have like 4 or 5 of them, including Dayan Viciedo. The reason they brought in Shuck is that he is perfectly capable of being a 5th outfielder - that is, he can play all 3 positions and he can play in AAA. He has decent contact skills, but if he's anything more than that, the Sox are in deep trouble.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:49 PM) 99.9999%? Absolutely. I have no idea if you are saying I am going to be the closer or not, but the answer to however you're phrasing your question is a resounding yes.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Not sure how much I like it, but I'm beginning to think that they acquired Shuck to be the regular left fielder. Maybe they intend to platoon him with Danks. Oddly enough, Shuck seems to hit lefties better, even though he's a left handed hitter Danks has been pretty decent vs. RHP, and is still considered the best defensive outfielder in the organization. If that's the plan, I wish they would move Avi to LF, when Danks starts, as he is unquestionably a better defender. I would say that the odds of the front office thinking JB Shuck is their plan to be the every day left fielder for the Chicago White Sox in 2015 at this point in time are probably the same odds of them thinking that I'm their plan to be the opening day closer. It's a ridiculous notion.

QUOTE (QuickJones81 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:34 PM) It would be interesting to look at a guy like Eric Gagne as a case study, to understand why he wasn't successful as a starter, but ultra successful as a reliever. What indicators existed from his time as a starter that could have predicted his eventual success. As you guys mentioned internally teams probably have run through these scenarios but it feels like the best chance to get effective relievers at a low cost. On top of that, it's a great way for teams to create value buying low on relievers then flipping them when they meet success. I think part of Gagne's success was found in syringes. Even the best closers in the game right now - Holland, Kimbrel, Jansen - blow saves. He converted 82 saves in a row. That's crazy. Anyways, Gagne actually seemed to have more success his 2nd time through the order in 2001 and in the 4th inning. My gut tells me that has to do with him getting hit around enough in the first 3 innings that he was facing the back end of lineups again already by the 4th inning.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:28 PM) It's sort of true. Aside from Abreu, Sale and Q who on the Sox is desirable? Out of the everyday players, maybe Lexi. Sox fans like Lexi, A. Garcia and Eaton, but are they really guys teams want? They can definitely do without those guys. It's not true whatsoever. The Sox have a ton of desirable assets, just as every team in the majors does. Suggesting otherwise is nothing short of absurd and ridiculous.

QUOTE (Baron @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 03:09 PM) Pretty hilarious...Astros fan on mlbtraderumors saying it would cost Jose Abreu or Chris Sale because " there's nobody on that team anybody wants" This is why I love the offseason. You see a lot of morons, as opposed to meatheads, come out of the wood work. Yes, the White Sox would trade Jose Abreu for Jason f***ing Castro.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:05 PM) Interesting thought. I don't know of any site that has the ability for you to get a list with those splits, but if you wanted the data, you might try shooting David Appelman at FanGraphs an email. They have a ton more data than they actually display on the site. That said, I'm not sure this is a good way to identify RP candidates, simply because SPs don't tend to throw anywhere near their hardest in the 1st inning and that they often purposely withhold some of their pitches to save for the second and third times through the order. I think you may be onto something in principle, though. There probably are some consistent indicators of what characteristics of starters make them good candidates for the bullpen. I'd bet that teams have their own criteria internally, but it would be cool to develop something for the public. I think looking at the first time through the order compared to the second and third times would be a better indicator of success. I think the first inning itself lends itself to a lot of sample bias, particularly in that you are going to face at least the 1-2-3 hitters who should be among the 4 or 5 best hitters on the team. You'll also see how well teams adjust to a certain pitcher based on that. It's safe to say that Chris Sale would make an excellent reliever - he already did at one point in his career - but teams can't figure him out the second and third times through, so he also makes a fine starting pitcher. That would show both how teams adjust to a guy as they continue to see him as well as possible deterioration of stuff.

Think I figured out the Jets problem. THERE'S A f***ING TREE IN THE MIDDLE OF THEIR PRACTICE FIELD. They show up to the game and they're all "where's the tree bruh?"

QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 11:22 AM) Don't draft a 2nd QB they said, there will be options available they said..... Do I go with The Sanchise Hoyer Orton (Tough matchup) McCown Vick Bortels I'm going to pick up Sanchez. Here's Orton's standard fantasy numbers this year though (against the Lions, Pats, Vikings, and Jets, only one of whom has a really bad pass defense): Det - 14 pts NE - 17 pts Min - 17 pts NYJ - 25 pts He's not a bad fill-in, no matter the defense he's facing.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:51 AM) My guess would be no, but really it would be an interesting argument. His suspension was listed as 162 games and he would be ineligible for the playoffs because he was not removed from the restricted before August 31, but game 163 is considered "regular season" so I'm not sure. In reality, I don't think the Yankees would activate him for that one game after not playing for over a year. I think the latter is correct because you wouldn't want to risk your entire season on a guy who hasn't played for a full season other than perhaps minor league rehab games. On the other hand, your option at 3B could alternatively be an injury replacement type player whose true MLB value is like a -2 WAR - poor or mediocre defense, bad offense, but he's the only option you have at 3B. It'd be like a one in a million scenario, but it's fun to think about anyways.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:48 AM) Alexei Ramirez also comes to mind. Yep, that's another good one, but that one is also an indication that maybe the Sox should look for guys on lower value contracts. It's hard for guys who receive large contracts to live up to their billing, but easier when they are cheaper and there's also more room for growth. Maybe you sign a guy to a 3 year, $21 million and he outperforms that contract by quite a bit. If the Sox sign Victor Martinez to a 4 year, $72 million deal, he has to perform very, very well to live up to that contract. Even a standard .300/.375/.475 year for Victor Martinez really kind of puts the Sox in a tough spot because they are still out at least one outfielder, a slough of problems in the bullpen, and less money to try and fix those. Meanwhile, LaRoche is going to cost much less with much less long-term committment and he could put up a very good season for the Sox as well.

So, just me spitballing based on hypotheticals right now. Alex Rodriguez received a 162 game suspension. What if the Orioles and Yankees tied for the division title and had to play a game 163? Would ARod have been eligible to play in that game?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:34 AM) Made up? Here's what you wrote again: but they are always most valuable on day one. I think "always" is the wrong word to use in this situation, as there are always exceptions - guys like Jose Abreu and Jermaine Dye come to mind immediately. Still, I think you know what he meant. We don't need to play this semantics game. It's a good and valuable discussion and I don't want to see it degrade into a pissing match.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:27 AM) Robertson's already guaranteed $15.3 million. He's unlikely to get any $36 million/3 year deals, so he ends up staying in NYC... He's guaranteed $15.3 mill for one year. A 3/$30 million guarantees him $30 million. If he goes out and gets hurt in year one, he's back to taking flyer contracts and he could easily go out the way of Andrew Bailey. If he doesn't take a multi-year offer worth less than $15.3 million AAV, I'd be incredibly surprised. There's nothing wrong with bringing in guys like Mitchell Boggs and Felipe Paulino, and if they fail, you release them and move on. I would much prefer that than bringing in Scott Feldman or Jason Hammel on multi-year deals at this point. Currently, the White Sox have Viciedo, Eaton, and Garcia. Perhaps that 4th outfielder is Jordan Danks, perhaps it's Aoki. My point being that I'd like to see them bring in another outfielder. Label him what you want beyond that.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:05 AM) To be fair, Erik Bedard's price tag for Seattle was a whole lot higher than what we'd be giving up for brett anderson, and if Anderson was only able to give us the first 1/2 of the season he keeps the seat warm for Rodon. Still, I was mostly contesting the idea that Anderson will put up a healthy season at some point. Nothing he's done thus far has shown he's capable of ever doing that. I also don't think you want Rodon to be someone who replaces a free agent you brought in. I think you count on him as being apart of the rotation and he replaces Bassitt (or Noesi or Danks or some free agent flyer). I'm just not sure Anderson makes a lot of sense to the Sox as a starting pitcher. Maybe they can sign him to a lucrative contract and see if he has anything as a reliever.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:10 AM) Another $35-45 million when you just blew $17-18? It's kind of like when you have over $100,000 in student loans, what's another couple of hundred thousand at that point? Uhhh, another $35-45? You'd assume somewhere around $10-12 mill a year for Robertson and $8-10 mill for Miller. At the most, that's $22. You bring in a couple of flyers - not $6-10 million type guys, but $2-5 million types or minor league free agents who aren't going to cost a ton of money. And then a 4th outfielder who hits left handed and is fairly good defensively? That costs like $5 mill at the most. No, it's nothing like $100,000 in student loands, what's another couple hundred thousand, because that's all borrowed money. It's like "I have $70,000 I can spend on a new car, and while I should go for something reasonable that will cost me in the $20-$30,000 range, I am going to splurge on a $55,000 car and hope nothing comes up." It's risky but has high dividends. It's not may favorite way of going and I'm not advocating it, but if you get Victor, you may as well try and set yourself up the best you can to win this season.