Everything posted by caulfield12
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 27, 2015 -> 09:19 AM) Everything that makes Cooper a good coach would make him an awful manager. Fine, then you've got McEwing or Capra. If you don't like those, Joel Skinner at AAA Charlotte...he's had a lot of big league experience around the Indians.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
Here's a team in a VERY similar situation to the White Sox, and Bryan Price will certainly be fired any day now...but they have the All-Star game to host and don't want to take a complete attendance PR hit if they can help it, either. They have a very solid core in Chapman, Cueto, Leake, Frazier, Cosart, Mesoraco, Bruce and Votto.....and difficult decisions to make on whether to keep Chapman, Votto, Bruce and/or Cueto OR simply completely blow things up. Even if the Reds play very well between now and July 31, it won't be good enough. Even if by some small miracle they entertained wild card hopes heading into September, who's in their rotation? Not Lorenzen and Iglesias. Their innings limit will have been reached by then, most likely. It is time for the reboot to begin, if only behind the scenes. W. Jocketty has been accused of lacking energy in recent years. Time for him to change that perception by marshaling his scout network and scouring the minors for big talent. Jocketty's preferred way of making a team better has always been trading for/signing veterans. That won't work here now.(A suggestion: Why don't the Reds go find themselves a young, analytics type, and install him as an assistant GM? I have no idea who that might be, but they might.) No matter. The Reds can't piecemeal it. They've tried that. You can't contend and reload at the same time. This isn't UK basketball. There are no instant makeovers. Nine Ls in a row is unfortunate by any measure. But also instructive. Time for the top bananas to start seeing the tea leaves for what they are. http://www.cincinnati.com/story/daugherty-...-weds/28004215/
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
QUOTE (SCCWS @ May 27, 2015 -> 09:03 AM) Who are you going to replace him with??? No one is coming in from outside the organization without a multi year contract. So in your rational, you hire another manager for will say 3 years and he doesn't work out so in the off-season you hire another one and have 3 on the payroll for next year. That ain't happening. So you have to hire within the organization. Harold Baines?? Buddy Bell?? Herm Schneider?? Kenny Williams??? How about Coop as interim manager for rest of year. Replace him with Nieves who is being paid by Boston anyway. OR you stcik w Robin, get a better draft pick and replace him in offseason when the number of candidates are much greater Cooper is the main one whose loyalty to the organization trumps his loyalty to Ventura (like Cora with Guillen). Buddy Bell would be another choice, or Nick Capra. Finally, McEwing or Mark Parent (I wrote Mark Salas for some reason, haha) if Ventura recommended they stay on in his place. (And I'm sure he wouldn't, not his style to be petty or vengeful). That's four. Personally, I would be happy with Cooper or McEwing (because he's a big LaRussa disciple, the equivalent of Martinez with Maddon almost). But no 2-3 year contracts for the interim manager. He's got to earn it. Otherwise, you wait until the offseason and do a full managerial search with due diligence and a full field of candidates, which hasn't happened since 2003-2004 with this organization.
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2015 MLB Catch-All Thread
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/juan-uribe-sa...446266-mlb.html Sox favorite Juan Uribe continues to have an incredible and blessed career....moving on to ATL, Tim Brown column.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
What is the White Sox "brand" right now? What does being a White Sox player represent...to the players, and to the fans? What are they trained in from the very beginning, the first day they sign and go to rookie ball? Most other organizations now have their own version/s of "Cardinals' Way"...but we've never developed a book/system, and it's 1) because not enough of our minor leaguers make an impact on the major league results, or 2) we've never taken the time to map out a strategy of instruction from Point A to Point B with all the scouts as well as major/minor league coaches working in collaboration. If everyone's not inculcating the Steverson system...or whatever Thome's doing, how can we expect them to just magically adapt at the major league level when a number of bad habits have already developed, to the point where it's too late to fix them in-season or the swings need to be completely overhauled from a mechanical standpoint (see Beckham, Borchard, Viciedo, Brian Anderson, Josh Fields, etc.)
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 27, 2015 -> 08:06 AM) How can you not see the selection bias issue with this? Let me ask you this: how many teams have ever fired their manager while the team was playing well? Managers are only ever fired when the team is underperforming, therefore natural regression to the mean will see the team improve regardless. There was a Freakonomics study about this years ago showing no difference between the ROS performance of bad teams that fired their managers versus bad teams that kept their managers. By that argument, no CEO or manager or coach should ever be fired, except for gross negligence. Unless you accept the fact that the White Sox actual or real "mean" is 0-5 games under .500 (and last place in the division) and are contented with that level of performance....then we'll be stuck in that same pattern of continual and consistent mediocrity for another 20-30 years.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
Torre, Cox, LaRussa, Ventura Somehow, one of them doesn't quite belong in the same conversation. If Ventura goes on to a 30+ year managerial career and enters the Hall of Fame, I'll eat my hat.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 27, 2015 -> 07:37 AM) My pick would be Don Cooper. I don't think he'll be part of the next managing regime, unless he is the manager himself, so might as well give him that chance now. He deserves it after all these years in the organization There's a good chance he's a disaster, which is fine by me. No different then what is going now. At best, his fiery personality could light a fire under this team. His personality will be good to grab some much needed headlines even when we stink. Keep us somewhat relevent. Similar to Ozzie in that regard. Why not? And, has been pointed out about 1,000 times in the last 2-3 seasons, what has Cooper done that's so great....recently? It's certainly not impossible a change of scenery is needed, that things have gotten stale for him after nearly three decades. (Longer than most posters here have been alive). There's just WAY too much talent among Sale/Samardzija/Quintana/Rodon to be getting these kinds of results on a consistent basis. It's a win/win situation. If Cooper doesn't work out, it was probably time for everyone to move on...the critics get their way (and they start bringing in new blood hopefully). If he does succeed, that means the team responded and played well.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
We had Ozzie. Ventura was the anti-Ozzie. It worked, for awhile, but then the Tigers' talent won out and the pitchers wore down in 2012. To anyone who has followed the game of baseball for most of their lives, it's very obvious that whatever's happening right now from a managerial standpoint, it's just not working and hasn't been working for a long time. (Just like in the Rockies' example...Hurdle was a hard-ass and then they turned to Tracy in 2009, who was another polar opposite. Going back to 2002, Hurdle was the opposite of the soft-spoken Buddy Bell, exactly what was needed at that particular time as well.) So, if it's not related to anything Ventura's doing, then our entire minor league coaching staff (in terms of those working specifically with position players)....they all need to go, right? We're either not coaching/instructing them well in the fundamentals, OR we're bringing in fundamentally-flawed players, OR BOTH.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 27, 2015 -> 07:21 AM) Which ones doomed the White Sox? They gave up 10 runs. They all were earned. There was an error but that meant nothing. If Carlos Sanchez bobbles a ball or Jose Abreu drops a pop up, as much as you think it is Robin's fault, they still would do the same thing if someone else was sitting in the dugout. We might as well start a thread about acquiring Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. The chances are just as good that happens. This thread was created to hopefully generate more Robin bashing. Last night was not on the manager. "I can't speak for any other sport, but in the history of the game it doesn't work," O'Dowd said. "A lot of times when you make a change, you've got deep-seeded (seated) problems that don't go away overnight. And usually your personnel is not very good either. History shows making a change is not an elixir." "They only work when you have a specific plan in mind of why you're making the change," O'Dowd said. "If you make a change for change sake, you have absolutely no chance for it working." ....... 2010-2015 (0/17 in terms of a managerial change leading to the playoffs, although it should be noted Kirk Gibson came in at the end of 2010 and quickly led Arizona to the playoffs the following season)
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
Then having any sort of opinion about the White Sox while Ventura is still the manager is a waste of bandwidth as well. Sometimes it seems the Sox want to cut off their nose to spite their face. So be it.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 27, 2015 -> 06:33 AM) Why is this a thread today? How did Ventura lose last night's game? I don't think the White Sox have a dumb fan base but people looking at this site lately would think otherwise. This has nothing to do with last night, specifically. It's an accumulation of EVERYTHING since September, 2012. To suggest we're a "smart fanbase" is to imagine that there's any type of precedent in Sox history for passing 8-10 teams in the 2nd half of a season when there simply isn't...or that we can ignore 4 teams in our own division being in a better position for the playoffs. Sure, we can feed the "light and hope" wolf all we want, have our pie in the sky "comeback" rationalizations, but it's going to take a different manager to get it done. It's that simple.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
At this point, there's almost nothing to lose. We're trailing every single team in the AL, other than the A's. If it doesn't work, we have the luxury of finding another manager in the off-season and "rebooting" again. Surely, Hahn has a "big board" of potential managers in mind as well.
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In-season managerial changes a risk, BUT
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/5791926/ in the 2000's, they worked out 9 of 34 times (and two of them were by the Rockies/O'Dowd, who curiously speaks out against them in the article) in terms of the new manager leading the team to the playoffs 2010 7 changes (Baltimore twice), KC, Orioles, DBacks, Mariners all finish last, Cubs 5th, Marlins 3rd (0/7) 2011 4 changes....Ozzie for Cooper at end of season (3rd place), A's and Nats 3rd, Marlins 5th (0/4) 2012 2 changes......Astros last, Indians next to last (Alomar, Jr., at very end of the season) (0/2) 2013 1 change.....Sandberg for Manuel, 4th place (0/1) 2014 3 changes....Astros/Rangers 4th, DBacks last (0/3) 2015 2 changes....Counsell for Roenicke, Dan Jennings for Mike Redmond 2010-2015 (0/17 in terms of a managerial change leading to the playoffs, although it should be noted Kirk Gibson came in at the end of 2010 and quickly led Arizona to the playoffs the following season) Basically, the odds are 20% (in terms of a change leading to the playoffs) in the last 15 years. Do the White Sox under Ventura have the same odds if he continues as manager? Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre, a part of the Marlins' turnaround in 2003, said it's not always true that players on underachieving teams want the manager pushed out the door. "But maybe it's a different personality or a different voice," Pierre said. "I'm not a parent, but I know some parents can tell their child to do something over and over again. Then maybe they have an aunt or an uncle or a neighbor tell the child the same thing, and the child listens. "It applies to kids, and sometimes it applies to professional athletes." In Houston in '04, the situation called for urgency. "Garner came in with the attitude, 'I've only got three months. I don't care if I hurt feelings, you'll do it my way,'" Ausmus said. ..... In 2009, O'Dowd said he made the move because he felt Tracy could quickly implement his priorities (despite Hurdle's leading the team to the 2007 World Series, just two years prior). What makes such a move work? New strategies? A different voice? Shock value? All of the aforementioned changes figured in those successful changes. With the Rockies, all have applied to the turnaround. "I can't speak for any other sport, but in the history of the game it doesn't work," O'Dowd said. "A lot of times when you make a change, you've got deep-seeded (seated) problems that don't go away overnight. And usually your personnel is not very good either. History shows making a change is not an elixir." "They only work when you have a specific plan in mind of why you're making the change," O'Dowd said. "If you make a change for change sake, you have absolutely no chance for it working." Top 10 midseason improvements since 1900 after a managerial change (not including changes in the first or last 20 games of the season): #1: 1989 Blue Jays 12-24 (.333) under Jimy Williams 77-49 (.626) under Cito Gaston Midseason improvement: +.293 #2: 1940 Cardinals 15-29 (.341) under Ray Blades and Mike Gonzalez 69-40 (.633) under Billy Southworth Midseason improvement: +.292 #3: 1912 Indians 54-71 (.470) under Harry Davis 21-7 (.750) under Joe Birmingham Midseason improvement: +.280 #4: 1999 Angels 51-82 (.383) under Terry Collins 19-10 (.655) under Joe Maddon Midseason improvement: +.272 #5: 2009 Rockies 18-28 (.391) under Clint Hurdle 74-42 (.638) under Jim Tracy Midseason improvement: +.247 #6: 1988 Padres 16-30 (.348) under Larry Bowa 67-48 (.583) under Jack McKeon Midseason improvement: +.235 #7: 1925 Cardinals 13-25 (.342) under Branch Rickey 64-51 (.556) under Rogers Hornsby Midseason improvement: +.214 #8: 1980 Twins 54-71 (.432) under Gene Mauch 23-13 (.639) under Johnny Goryl Midseason improvement: +.207 #9: 2002 Rockies 6-16 (.2727) under Buddy Bell 67-73 (.4786) under Clint Hurdle Midseason improvement: +.2059 #10: 1969 Angels 11-28 (.2821) under Bill Rigney 60-63 (.4878) under Lefty Phillips Midseason improvement: +.2057 source, baseball-reference.com
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First Inning Killing Sox
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees--t...433447-mlb.html Wonder if we'll be able to draw any conclusions from the new "spin rate" data on our pitchers... Top-end exit velocity, like spin, isn’t always a proxy for the best players. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera appear on one top 10 list. Pedro Alvarez, Melky Cabrera, Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick and Joc Pederson appear on two apiece. And while none of them is a slouch – particularly Pederson – they’re not among the best players in baseball, either.
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Attendance 2015
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/...ttendance.shtml White Sox have the 9th highest attendance (per game) increase in the majors so far in 2015 despite being the 2nd worst team in the AL, and the worst statistically. Seattle and San Diego have had very active off-seasons in the last two cycles. Oakland, Cleveland, Washington and Pittsburgh were either playoff teams or had strong playoff aspirations. Finally, the Mets had all that young pitching, and Harvey returning back from TJ surgery. Interestingly enough, the Rangers, Phillies, Braves, Rockies, Rays and Twins were all in the 2nd-5th year of rebuilding cycles. Can we say that all of them, along with Angels (they made the playoffs, were expected to win the division again, have the best player in baseball, etc.) and Yankees fans....are "fairweather/bandwagon" fans? Are Miami and Arizona fans too impatient for winning teams?
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2015 MLB Catch-All Thread
“We have the most passionate fans, and I think that’s the beauty of Philadelphia,” he said. “I would never intentionally disparage our fans – that’s not how I go about my business, that’s not what I feel is in the best interest of the organization. We’re fan-driven. This is an entertainment business, and we need the support of our fans, and we’ve gotten tremendous support. I apologize for the context or the words that I used.” But, the point is he chose his words poorly while being the general manager of a team that’s sported a top-5 payroll in the last 3 years, without sporting a winning record in any of those years (and, very not likely this year, either). Clearly the reaction wouldn’t be as strong if the same words came from the general manager in Boston or Chicago… “I think it probably would be a lot different if we were fighting for first place, or won the division the last two or three years,” Amaro said. “We haven’t done that, and I understand that. Some of the decisions we made were great, and some didn’t work and were not-so-great. The way I look at it is that we are now making progress. I think the thing that bothers me the most about this stuff that happened today and the quotes I made is that I don’t want to detract from the fact that there are some really positive things happening here in a way that the fans can focus on those. Hopefully they can focus on the progress as opposed to my misguided quotes.” Sounds familiar. Keep in mind, the Phillies last won the World Series in 2009, not 2005. Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillie...R4KKEhzj84cd.99
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The Optimism Thread
QUOTE (greg775 @ May 26, 2015 -> 09:19 PM) I disagree. We're actually knowledgable. How can you be that fired up when the defense is this bad? When the baserunning (and base stealing, lol) is so bad? When the pitching has been blah for the most part and the hitting has been rotten? At least tonight's game had highlights. A lot of games have no highlights. Didn't somebody post that the Sox have scored one run seven times and been shutout twice already? Yikes. We're not that pessimistic; we've just been given very weird baseball to watch the past few seasons. What are we supposed to do? Actually believe the Sox can beat Central Division teams, catch the damn ball and play smart baseball before the team does it for a month at least? And not fall 8 games back in May? Somehow we're still managing to lose ground to KC when they've uncharacteristically lost 3 in a row...
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2015 Films thread
QUOTE (bmags @ May 26, 2015 -> 11:40 AM) Yeah previews at Mad Max were bad. There was a lot of hype around Jurassic World, but it looks just as contrived as JP2 and JP3. Mad Max was awesome. Maybe one of my favorite movies now. No extraneous plot. Well executed. Just so well executed. The best part is if someone tried to create a world like Mad Max in a new movie, they would spend 20-30 minutes of exposition explaining why everything is what it is. Screw that, just go! It's okay to leave people in the dark on things. Tomorrowland would probably fall into that category. It's a decent movie, but more was expected from Brad Bird for $180 million and because of his past track record. In his pantheon, it's a misfire in the same sense Interstellar was.
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Why do so many guys we bring in play so much worse for us than other t
QUOTE (greg775 @ May 26, 2015 -> 09:28 PM) I've become jaded. Because whenever a new guy arrives, he seems to always start slowly, at least the hitters (Robertson, Duke were on fire and quite effective out of the gates). But if we bring up a hitter or acquire a hitter, it seems to me he always starts horrifically. I'm not talking about a home run on opening day for LaRoche; I'm talking the first 25 at bats. Well, that was definitely true of Jermaine Dye in 2005. I notice Dye, Thome, Pods, Quentin, AJ, Iguchi, Alexei and Abreu were not on the list. At the very least, Dye, Thome and AJ all had career resurgences with Chicago. Pods stayed about even. Everett was on the downside already (I realize that was another trade, and not FA move, but distinguishing between trades and FA moves doesn't really matter, the business of baseball is talent procurement and cost/benefit analysis). In the end, the White Sox were able to cover up for all these mistakes (free agents as well as developing their own position players) largely because of the pitching staff nurturing guys like Sale/Quintana/Danks/Floyd (not to mention all the relievers whose careers were resuscitated) and hitting it big with Quentin (at least 2008), Ramirez and Abreu.
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Adam Eaton
Eaton 153/172 0.00 WAR Alexei 154/172 0.00 WAR Melky 169/172 -0.2 WAR Tyler Flowers 582 OPS, career is 660 Carlos Sanchez 472 OPS, career is 530 (yikes) Conor Gillaspie 683 OPS, career is 714 That doesn't even cover Micah or Soto. Eaton's a problem, but far from the biggest. I'd almost argue that not having a super-reliable RH reliever for the 8th inning is becoming even more of an issue, as it's forcing Robertson into extended 4 out saves.
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The Optimism Thread
QUOTE (shipps @ May 26, 2015 -> 04:06 PM) I think a big part of being a Sox fan is we are notably the most pessimistic fans in the country. We will watch the team from a far when they are bad and every loss is the end of the season. Optimism my friend, only comes when they win it all. Phillies fans are just the same. We keep thinking we're unusual, but we're not... "They (the fans) don't understand the game," he said. "They don't understand the process. There's a process. And then they b---- and complain because we don't have a plan. There's a plan in place and we're sticking with the plan. We can't do what's best for the fan. We have to do what's best for the organization so the fan can reap the benefit of it later on. That's the truth." Ruben Amaro was born here, grew up here, played major-league baseball here, and has worked as a Phillies executive here. Of the 50 years he's been alive, he's spent more than 40 of them here. He graduated from Stanford. He's a smart guy. Yet he couldn't avoid making what amounted to a rookie mistake: He failed to remember that he's not in a position to b---- about fans who b---- about his baseball team. Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/philli...FmM5OFWKY8Uk.99
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Irreconcilable Differences
This argument has gotten so polarized that it's either "the White Sox must make it to the World Series every season" or at least 2/3 or 3/5 years...OR, JR needs to sell the team because of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 attendance. Losing sight of the fact that attendance is only 20-25% of revenues for most teams over the last decade. Of course, those who keep criticizing the Sox fanbase don't have a response, EITHER. Other than complaining about the lack of support, excuses, bandwagon fans, fair weather fans, etc. Leading to the logical conclusion, if, in their definition, even a "winning" team doesn't draw fans, then WHAT THE HECK ARE THEY GOING TO DO? Improve the product? Spend even more money? Make Sox fans feel guiltier (insulting the fans like KW has done in the past, or Ruben Amaro in the last 24-48 hours)? Better marketing? If the likes of Brooks Boyer are doing a great job and have tried everything possible, then what else can be done?
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First Inning Killing Sox
Then how can we explain the White Sox in 2012 or the Twins so far in 2015? Or the Indians the first year Francona managed them? All anomalies/statistical aberrations?
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2015 Films thread
QUOTE (knightni @ May 26, 2015 -> 08:32 AM) My favorite film rental this year has been The Equalizer. What's yours? P.K. Starring amir khan, hindi movie. It has the same director as Three Idiots. Broke lots of box office records in India... There are 7 reviews at rottentomatoes, 6 positive and one negative.