chw42

IMO Keuchel only looks bad cause he wasn't real good last year even though his ERA was fine. His FIP was trash but he pitched half a year and his statcast numbers were fine. He's projected to be a 2.5 win pitcher. I'm perfectly fine with paying him $18 mil a year for that, assuming he can keep that kind of production up for another 2 years.

Realistically, this puts the Sox at 35 WAR projection-wise. That's a 83 win team. If things go our way we will be in playoff contention. Go add a guy like EE as well as at least one good bullpen arm and we'll really be set.

I'm ok with this. At least we spent the money. Keuchel is probably a 2 or 3 win pitcher for the next few years and he will probably be worth his contract for the most part

ZiPS had the Sox projected at around 30 WAR before the Gio signing. Add Gio at 1.5 wins and they're at around 32. That's around a 80 win team. If ZiPS has us as a .500 team now, some luck/hits on our prospects will easily have us in contention. Their projections had Robert at 2.5 wins, Kopech at 1.9, and Madrigal/Mendick at 1.9. All fairly feasible assuming they stay healthy and get playing time like we all think they will this year.

Gio can still throw 91 and has elite hard hit% and exit velocity numbers. If he can stay healthy, I can totally see a 2 win season from him in about 150 innings.

I don't hate it assuming we're still going to spend money on another arm. Gio wasn't bad last year with Milwaukee but had a lot of issues staying healthy. If it's a cheap deal and he gives us 150 innings, it's a good signing.

I know it would have cost us way more to get Kluber since we're within the division, but what do you guys think it would have taken had we absorbed the whole contract?

Bumgarner got paid as a 10 win pitcher over the next 5 years. That's very reasonable for him. He wouldn't have been the best fit for this team, but for $17 million a year, it's a very reasonable deal. You get a guaranteed innings eating lefty whose floor is 2 WAR. That's better than everyone the Sox have right now besides Giolito.

I'd rather have 6 years of control on a lottery prospect like Walker and spend some money on a FA like Calhoun than trade for Mazara.

Mazara is basically a left handed Avi in terms of hype as a prospect. Except Avi actually hits the ball harder and has had success in the Majors.

lol we gave up our #6 prospect for a guy who hasn't hit 1 WAR in 2 years. Terrible.

All depends on what we gave up. I'm fine with a lottery ticket like Mazara but we shouldn't have to give up much.

I just shuddered at thinking about Clint Frazier ever touching the OF on a regular basis. Happ is also probably terrible until they unjuice the ball. That being said, the Yankees would probably give them up for next to nothing for financial flexibility to sign Cole.

Agreed. I'm ok with him assuming we get him on a cheaper deal. There's no reason to go after him instead of Castellanos unless we get a nice discount. I really hope it's not anything over $60 million over 4 years.

He makes hard contact and he makes hard contact a lot. The problem is that his launch angle was low last year which is why he probably hit .240. His expected BA was .280. He was a slightly above average hitter last year but if he had some luck he could have been 20% above league average. Abreu has a similar profile as a hitter in that he hits the ball hard but a lot of those are on the ground.

Ozuna's defensive stats look fine. I keep hearing about how he's terrible and he can't throw anymore. But UZR and DRS graded his arm and overall defense really well in 2019. If his arm is an issue, then having him in RF will be rough.

I really like Marquez. Take him out of Coors and he's got TOR numbers.

The thing is that pitchers are so bad at hitting that those numbers give him something around 0.5-1 WAR of value as a hitter.

Rosenthal's tweet made it seem like just 1. Guess 4 makes more sense.

They're not even in the same neighborhood. Bundy was actually worth 2.5 WAR last year and has solid peripherals. If all it took was some no name RHP propsect I would have definitely considered.

If that's all it took, I would have been ok with us taking a chance on him.

Some of Bumgarner's value comes from the fact he can hit well as a pitcher. We'd get nothing from that. Also I'm sure he would prefer to stay in the NL so he can hit.

I'm ok with us getting Ryu on a shorter deal. Just hope he doesn't get hurt and gives you at least 150 IPs a year. Outside of August he was really good last year.

FWIW, Gio and Bumgarner had very similar batted ball profiles last year. I don't think the fly balls are the problem. It's that Bumgarner gives up hard hit balls. He was bottom 15% in exit velo and hard hit %. I'm ok with Bumgarner assuming they get a good deal, but 4 years at 80 to 100 for a guy who will most likely own an FIP in the 4.5s is not worth it.

If you sign Bumgarner and Manfred decides to unjuice the ball, then you'll get lucky.