chw42

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 02:14 PM) Is this our Jason Werth? Werth wasn't 30 when he broke out in 07.

QUOTE (Frank_Thomas35 @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 02:34 PM) Pierre, lf Vizquel, 3b Rios, df Konerko, 1b Teahen, DH Quentin, rf Pierzynski, c Ramirez, ss Beckham, 2b Jackson, p I'd like a flip flop of Teahen and Quentin, both position-wise and lineup-wise. Then flip A.J. and Alexei and you have yourself a pretty good lineup. Still, I think this lineup Ozzie has out there today is pretty decent to begin with.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 02:19 PM) Most people I know in KC would say f*** it to 23 dollar parking and no way in hell would they go. That's because the Royals are bad at baseball.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 01:10 PM) Ok you lost me on that last statement. These are very highly skilled athletes. Is it 40% luck when a fast man can steal a base ? Is it 40% luck when that same fast man who has spent many hours practicing can run down a shot in the gap ? Is it 40% luck that a player hits .300 for his whole career ? To attribute 40% luck to the best baseball players in the world seems to trivialize the time spend honing their craft. The cream rises to the top in any specialized skill and it's not through luck . It's through constant repetition, God given talent and dedication. Ok, I think I should have been more clear. Over the course of one 162 game season, baseball is 60% skill and 40% luck. Over the course of many, many seasons, the talent overcomes whatever good luck or bad luck comes their way. http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/...le/god_and_500/

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 01:11 PM) I'm still waiting on you to explain WAR to me in your own words. You wont do it, I dont know why. Make me less ignorant. I wish I had somebody explain WAR to me when I first came upon it... http://saberlibrary.com/misc/war/ Basically, it takes one offensive stat (wOBA, converted into wRAA based on ballpark factors) and one defensive stat (UZR), along with a positional adjustment (not all position players are of the same value), and a constant replacement value (20 runs per 600 PAs) and adds all of those components together, which gives you a run value. Divide that by 10 and you get win shares. If you want an explanation of why it is 10 runs, read this. wOBA is based on linear weights, which takes its values from playing around with run expectancy charts. The average value of a home run over all these years is 1.95 runs, so if a player hits a home run, that event is worth 1.95 runs. The bad thing about this is that it is not based on context. A three run homer in the 9th is worth the same as a solo home run in the first. However, you kind of want it that way. There are other stats that tell you about contextual performance (Win Percentage Added, for example), but WAR measures player talent, not how clutch he is. You run into those situations based on the team you play for and where you bat in the lineup, WAR does not measure that because those are things the player has no control over. For the most part, people accept that wOBA is a better stat than OPS because a: OPS counts for singles twice and b: wOBA is a more complicated calculation that takes more things into consideration. UZR is a defensive metric that is calculated based on zones. The field is divided into 84 zones and each ball in play is plotted for location and type (line drive, fly ball, ground ball, fliner). Based on this data, you can find the average zone for all fielders at every position. If the ball is out of the zone, the fielder gets credit for making such a play. If a fielder makes a play in his zone, he also gets credit, but not a whole lot. However, if he misses a ball in his zone, he will get penalized. A more easy scoring system is John Dewan's +/-, where the ratings are whole integers. But in UZR, the calculations are for more complicated and harder to explain. Read this about replacement level: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/w...ained-part-four Read this about positional adjustment: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/e...lues-part-three Replacement level might be hard to grasp, but positional adjustment is quite self explanatory. WAR is not a contextual stat, nowhere does it base its numbers in how many walk-off hits a hitter gets. Andre Ethier's WAR is not 8 because he had 8 walk-off hits, thinking this way would be too simplistic and it would be taking away credit from the players who got on base in front of him and the pitchers who got outs for him to get to that point. It is not team dependent and it is not event dependent. So no, Mark Kotsay shouldn't get a whole win share because he got two big hits against Detroit. That'll show up in his WPA, but WAR isn't for that.

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 12:34 PM) Only old, close-minded, uneducated and stupid people would ever hold that opinion. Cant blame them though, they just dont understand math. As Felix said to you in the chat, it's fine you have your own opinions, but being completely ignorant about something you keep on knocking is not cool.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 12:00 PM) Porcello wants a pearl necklace for his third appearance vs the Sox Did he just get that a second ago? lol

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 11:57 AM) This post pretty much encapsulates how condescending Sabr proponents are. Right, and now let's all go and talk about how great of a player Juan Pierre is because he is so good at sliding!

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 11:54 AM) I think what started this debate was Dave Cameron writing that because he (Greinke) referenced a SABR stat once (like FIP or something like that), that it was therefore somehow logical that he was also upset with the Royals because Yuniesky Betancourt has one of the worst UZR ratings in baseball, or something like that...also, the idea that players and agents will start using these stats to criticize their FO's or speak out in the press. I think that was a bit of a stretch...using statistics to back up your arguments is always helpful, but it's definitely not the be-all, end-all to debate. In fact, someone brought up how the Twins had never used any kind of SABR analysis at all until the 2010 season, their famous quote from GM Smith about "trusting their eyes" in terms of scouting. In actuality, Greinke has seen Meche go down with injuries, rumors about Soria being traded, Farnsworth gone, Pods gone, Guillen gone, Ankiel gone, Callaspo gone...it's logical that his comments were more reflective of these transactions than how good Betancourt's range factor was at any given moment. It was more or less him getting pissed off at their front office for not having a direction.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 14, 2010 -> 03:07 AM) CircleChange11 says: August 13, 2010 at 10:51 am [1] You know who would appreciate these baseball metrics … NERDS … highly educated guys who went to academic colleges, and like to nerd it up. Ohlendorf and the like. Academic types that enjoy the details of a formula/scenario. You know how many of those guys are in MLB? Not many. [2] I would also bet that guys tend to like sabermetric stuff when they lead in a category. Want me to speak on the wonders of FIP? Show me that I’m the best at it, and my other bad stats are due to team defense. I’m all over that. I’d bet right now, Cliff Lee really appreciates the K:BB metric. It’s probably his favorite stat. *grin* [3] Not only do many major leaguers not pay attention to what we say … many of them think we have no right to say it. The whole not speaking from experience part. IMO, we’re like a homeless guy writing a book on how to make millions … in the opinion department. The value of sites like this are the extensions of the mega-research done and brought to the masses. But a lot of what is written here is just wrong opinion. If someone were to keep “individual W-L records” for the authors, what would the winning % be for each guy? [4] The article (by Dave Cameron) says that Yuni (Betancourt) has the range of a wilted teen. No, Yuni has the range of a major league shortstop, which makes him what? 1 out of 10 million people to have the skill/ability? You really think any athlete is going to come and read stuff like that and give credence to some keyboard jockey's opinion? [5] When Crash Davis gets a 5y/110M contract and for justification the GM states, “He has the most WAR of any catcher over the last 4 years.” THEN, Nuke will say, “Hey Annie, what’s all this WAR stuff.” We drastically overestimate our influence and popularity in the mainstream. Growing, yes? Influential? No. Potential to educate lots of fans? Yes. from fangraphs.com message boards CircleChange is a pretty good poster over there, actually. Regarding the topic at hand, I don't think everybody who likes sabermetrics or uses it is a geek. Is Zack Greinke a geek? Is Brian Bannister one? Max Scherzer? Maybe those guys are just smart to use the tools they have in front of them instead of being ignorant and arrogant. But people with higher education levels tend to understand them better because they've had to deal with numbers before. Plus, it's a young vs. old thing as well. People my age, or slightly older than me tend to understand and appreciate sabermetrics more. Maybe we're just more open minded or the education of right now is better than the education of a decade or two ago. Who knows. I don't know if it's fair to call numbers people "nerds". Nerds usually don't like sports, at least that's what the stereotype of a nerd is. Geek is probably a better way to describe it.

Let's kick Porcello's ass again (this would be the third time this season).

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 02:40 PM) Pierre 7 Vizquel 5 Rios 8 PK DH Teahen 9 Ramirez 6 A.J. 2 Kotsay 3 Beckham 4 Buehrle P Kotsay 8th? Are you sure this is the lineup? I really hope Quentin becomes the everyday DH now.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 12:51 PM) Good job Matt. I am pretty old school on stats because well I'm old and advanced metrics are useful. I guess I'll really have to bone up on them but they will never role off my tongue the way ERA, RBI an batting average do. I think the thing that bothers me most about sabermetrics is the constant use the the word "luck" in batting and pitching advanced stats. I know with pitching you can also do line drive rates. Maybe in Gavin's case hitters were just hitting the ball harder leading to worse numbers because of location or hangers or whatever. I guess you can tell me if that is true or not. Or maybe you already told me but because those stats are pretty unfamiliar to me I just didn't catch it. Is it really too simplistic to think when a pitcher makes quality pitches he's more likely to pitch better and have better "luck" ? Luck is just another word for randomness. And in statistics, there is a lot of randomness, as is there in baseball. Tom Tango posted something about luck the other day. If all teams had equal talent and played a 162 game season, not all of them would be .500. You'd have 10 that are above .500. 10 around .500. 10 under .500. If they played a million times, all of them would be exactly .500, of course. Basically, baseball is 60% skill, 40% luck/randomness.

lol that Jonathan Ogden one was hilarious.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 04:47 PM) Andruw is about as sure fired of a HOF as there ever is. Best defensive CFer of his generation and one of the greatest of all time plus the guy had 400HR's and was a very good offensive player in the same span. He's more of a lock than Chipper, imo. Had he not fizzled out so early, he would be in without question. 500 home runs + his defense is an automatic in.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 03:56 PM) um... Griffey? Him too, obviously.

Gotta start playing catchup. Let's beat Bonderman this time.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 03:28 PM) Except Liriano is bad at the Cell. I don't think 4 starts is enough to tell.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 03:21 PM) That's pretty significant for a team. .803 team OPS vs RHP, .755 team OPS vs LHP. In comparison, the Sox are at .748 vs both RHP and LHP. Hmm, I woulda thought we'd be significantly better against LHP.

QUOTE (MattZakrowski @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 03:12 PM) Without looking, I'll bet the Twins lineup is a lot better against RHP. Not by that much (.45 point difference in OPS).

QUOTE (joeynach @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 02:13 PM) Um I think Matt is the writer on Fangraphs, or fangraphs is using his blog article on their website. No, FanGraphs is using his article, which he submitted.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 02:22 PM) I've never understood the Pena love on this board. How is Allen still in the minors at Reno? He has 21 homers and 72 S ribbies. WTF? Shouldn't he be in the bigs? Adam LaRoche is blocking him. Plus, Allen wasn't very good at the ML level this year.

Definitely a hall of famer. He and Frank are two of the sure shots from the steroid era.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Aug 12, 2010 -> 02:09 PM) He had a great year last year. I don't think it makes any sense. Regression makes sense, this much of a regression doesn't.

Congrats on getting this on FanGraphs Matt! http://www.fangraphs.com/community/index.p...-williams-mess/