Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:36 PM) They say things will be different and I believe them, but I will believe they will sign one of these guys when they actually sign him. No offense to anyone. As soon as they signed Robert for $50M and went into the penalty box I knew things would be different. I can understand being cautiously optimistic here, but the team literally has no financial commitments going forward and will have to spend their cash on something. A big free signing that signals the end of the rebuild and can be used to hype up interest in the team is no doubt the plan IMO.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:22 PM) Donaldson will be too old. Machado and Arenado will be too expensive. Sure, if ownership wants to spend the money, I'm certainly not going to complain and of course, they are better players, than Moustakas. However, that doesn't seem realistic, to me. Moreover, it would be nice to extend some of the young stars, rather than have to let a bunch of them go, when they hit free agency. They might not have that financial flexibility, if they spend $35 Million per year on a third baseman. Why is that "mind-boggling"? I do agree that giving up the draft pick is a big negative. Saying we’re better off with a left-handed bat over a top 5 player is mind-boggling. That’s basically like trading someone a $20 bill for four quarters because a vending machine doesn’t take big bills. If you’re saying we can’t afford that star player that’s a completely different story, although I don’t know you’d come to that conclusion. Let me ask you this, do you think a $50M payroll is realistic? Because we could extend Abreu and have the bulk of our core in place for that much or less. We are going to have a ton of money to play with over the next few years. These young players you mention won’t get expensive for another four to six years. What are we going to spend all this money on? Assuming the rebuild goes well, we may only have a handful of holes. Let’s spend our money on impact players and settle for some dude cause he simply plugs a hole. As for extending for our young stars, that shouldn’t even be a consideration at this point time. Why are we concerned about something six to eight years from now? We should do everything we can to maximize our 2019 to 2024 window. The reality is a lot of these guys are going to want to test the market. Once a guy like Moncada gets there, you better be prepared to give him a Machado level contract or he’s as good as gone. And you just said you don’t want to give Machado that contract right now despite having tons of financial flexibility. The good news is if were somehow able to add Machado, he’d most definitely have an opt-out after a few years and would likely exercise it, meaning his downside years wouldn’t probably not impact us anyways.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:13 PM) We’ll see. Odds are 50/50 that Rendon or Arenado stay put...so that quickly cuts the realistic list back down to Donaldson and one of those two. Do the Sox have the will to win a bidding war in the $150+ million range? We can argue if Moustakas is a 2-3 or 3-4. His 2015 and 2016 extrapolated/abbreviated numbers would argue the latter. If he was 32, I wouldn’t be arguing for him. I’d also argue the odds are greater for Moustakas than Avi Garcia in 2018, for example...especially Moustakas playing in a hitter friendly park for the first time. Where the hell do you come up with these odds? I have never seen a poster throw out random probabilites more than you. Right now, all four of those guys are within two years of free agency. Odds are they will wait it out for a big payday if they haven’t settled already by this point. Anything can happen, but I’d wager none of these guys resign with their current clubs prior to testing the market. And yes, the Sox with a $50M payroll will have TWTW a bidding war in the $150M. For f***s same, they just spent $50M on an amateur free agent. I’m certain they plan on going to the $300M+ range for Machado. Probably won’t be enough to outbid the Yankees, but once they’re out of the picture we’re as dangerous as anyone. People really need to accept the fact that the Sox are going to spend like crazy over the next two years assuming no stumbling blocks with the rebuild and that the old way of doing things will no longer be relevant.

I f***ing hate the NRA.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 08:09 PM) They need a respectable left handed bat, more than they need a top 5 player. This is absolutely mind-boggling to me. You’d actually pass a significantly better player because of a desire to have a more balance lineup in terms of handedness. You realize that Machado & Donaldson are just as good against RHP (if not better) than Moustakas is right? But they bring much overall ability to the table. Regardless, focusing on building the most perfectly balanced lineup this early into a rebuild is a dangerous game. The goal first & foremost should be talent accumulation (preferably impact talent) and worrying about it all fits together later on.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:38 PM) If our sights for every position are a Top 5 player, we’re also in trouble. He’s a good player. And he’s still in his prime, and LH. How are we in trouble by targeting high-end talent? As has been mentioned repeatedly, we can go get a player like Moustakas if we miss out on those top guys when said player is needed. We don’t have to settle right now. I think some of you guys are so used to the old way of doing things that you honestly think Moose as good as it gets. There are four elite 3B options in Machado, Donaldson, Arenado, & Rendon hitting free agency over the next two years. We will have as much financial flexibility as anyone to add one of these guys. While I think Machado is a long-shot because of the Yankees, I think any of the other three are realistic possibilities. And if we really want to win a World Series, we should be doing everything in our power to add a star, 5+ WAR player at 3B (our biggest area of weakness) rather settle for a 2 to 3 WAR guy that will cost us $12M to $16M in wasted season plus a pick.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 07:25 PM) Now we are back to guys in their 30’s again. Longoria has been very solid the last four years, but he’s owed $81 million for age 32-36. Moustakas is only 29. It’s just very rare you can get a really good player not approaching his down curve or with a very expensive contract. But he’s not a really good player. That’s the point. Unless his defense rebounds, he’s really an average player. And if we’re unwilling to consider players in their 30’s to fill any roles our rebuild is going to be in trouble.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 06:34 PM) So, other than Machado (who might not even want to play 3b), Donaldson, Rendon and Arenado, who’s really out there? At least two of those guys will probably re-sign, so you’re back in the box of chasing 33-37 year old Josh Donaldson with $140-165 million over four years. Is Burger likely to be a 3 war third baseman in 2020? Odds, knowing his defensive issues...? Why are these five along with Moustakas the only five options? Why can’t we trade for someone when the time is right if necessary. The Giants just acquired a very comparable player in Longoria. I could see Kyle Seager becoming available at some point in the near future. These markets are dynamic and with the amount of teams rebuilding players who were once considered off-limits may become available.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:39 PM) Dunkirk was extremely well made, but as a narrative, it was far too lacking to consider "great." It had almost zero character development. This 100%. Pretty disappointed with this year’s nominees in general. I still have three to go, but pretty weak group after Get Out & The Post IMO. The Big Sick is better than all of them and totally got snubbed.

If you draft Madrigal, where do you slot him eventually? Normally I wouldn’t ask the question, but he should come relatively quick.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:04 PM) Regarding this argument that it is not meaningful to evaluate stats, if any portion is excluded: When you have consistent statistical data, with a short period, which is significantly divergent, I think that it's fair to consider that data as an aberration. It's a long season. If a hitter hit .300 every month, but one, in which he hit .200, what would you conclude? Going forward, would you anticipate that he would hit around .300 .200, or the average of his entire season? I would interpret that data as indicative of a .300 hitter, who had a really bad month. The question then becomes, what caused that aberration? Was he hurt, or was it attributed to something else? To put it another way, I would take that good production in 5 of the 6 months, and hope that the rest of the team could pick up the slack, during that one bad month, if it should recur. The more consistent the production, and the greater the divergence of the one exception, the less significance one could reasonably attach to that aberration. I’ve got great respect for you Lillian so please don’t take this the wrong way, but do you realize how variable & random baseball actually is? Every player is going to have good months & bad months. Occasionally a bad month could indicate an injury or something, but 95% of the time it’s just normal variation. You are really overthinking it here or are simply looking for a reason to justify a move you want to happen.

It's absolutely disgusting that someone would propose arming teachers would actually solve this problem. A couple teachers armed with handguns are going to do jack s*** against some psychopath who has spent months planning, has an AR-15 w/ high capacity clips, possibly wearing body armor, & with the element of surprise. The only thing those teachers might do is slow the shooter down slightly at the cost of their lives, but that's obviously not a solution and doesn't take into the account the numerous other negatives arming teachers would result in. One of the single dumbest ideas I have ever heard.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:29 AM) If you look at Moustakas' month, by month stats, over the last 3 years, you might decide that he is a better hitter than Todd Frazier has been, since coming to the A.L. What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 11:05 PM) Is that Cozart and Moose because I made the same point earlier I'd have rather signed Cozart for 3/38 then commit to Moose on a five year deal. That’s Todd Frazier & Moustakas respectively. I guess my point is that Frazier has arguably been the better player and most people here couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. But somehow many of those people want to lock Moose up to a five year deal with a $12 to $16M AAV despite the fact that a comparable option in Frazier could only get a 2/$17M deal on the market. I just don’t get what people see in Moustakas that makes him so attractive other than HRs.

Random 3B comparison time. Who would be the more desirable free agent? Player: A. B. Age: 32. 29 BB%: 14.4%. 5.7% K%: 21.7%. 15.7% ISO: .215. .249 OBP: .344. .314 OPS: .772. .835 wRC+: 108. 114 UZR/ 150: 9.7. -3.6 WAR: 3.0. 2.2 12-16 aWAR: 3.5. 2.2

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:37 PM) I was looking only at qualifying guys, so Beltran wasn’t listed, but you don,t want to pay that much for 94 games. I have my suspicions about Donaldson.. we will see what happens. It will take the best bid. An article in the Athletic says he owes the industry that. And most likely all the Machado losers will be in on him. One thing to think about is he is known to be a bit of an asshole. There was that playoff game where they caught Gibbons calling him one in the dugout. But if he can put up what you think he can put up, then that shouldn’t be much of a deal. The point I was trying to make is that Beltre averaged 5.6 WAR in his age 33 to 37 seasons. There are examples of elite players remaining productive as they age. The problem is there are so few players the quality of Donaldson that’s it is hard to say with certainty if they generally follow a normal aging curve or a more significant one. Also, are you suggesting he may have used PEDs in his past? Not debating what you’re saying, just have never heard that. I know of the asshole rumors though and am less concerned about those if like you said he remains productive.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:25 PM) ARod’s production dropped off pretty dramatically after his age 32 season. He was still a good player for another 5 years but nowhere near his peak and he was starting from another level above Donaldson. Why would you expect even more from Donaldson? And yes, I am assuming ARod was using PEDs into 2013 but his performance had already dropped off quite dramatically after 2007 when he was 32. Can’t trust anyone using roids. I think aging curves in general are a bit skewed right now because of the drop-off roiders experienced. No doubt guys will get worse as they get older, but I don’t think it happens quite as early as some experts suggest IMO.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. Adrian Beltre put up 3.1 WAR over 94 games last year. Prior to that, he averaged 5.8 WAR over his age 33 to 37 seasons. While not perfect, that’s as close of a comp as you’re going to get for Donaldson. And I’m not sure people realize that Donaldson has been the second best player in baseball from a WAR perspective behind only Mike Trout and it’s not even that close. Dude has been elite and remained elite when on the field last year. I personally believe where his defense is today he’s probably closer to 6 WAR, but that’s awesome and allows him to age and remain really f***ing good. Now, if there are serious long-term injury concerns like fathom alluded to then maybe you got to pass. But without those risk indicators, I’m not going to pass on him simply because he’s in his 30’s.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:37 PM) Not just beating them but beating them by a wide margin considering 2019 is his age 33 season and 2023 is his age 37 season...find it hard to believe he will put up that type of WAR during that timeframe. More likely he accumulates a WAR of 12-15 during that timeframe and now you’re exceeding $10M per WAR. Not great value imo. Let’s see how he does this year first. How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks. Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:37 PM) So would you give him $130-140 million for four years? What if you couldn’t sign him without going to five? I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson: fWAR 2019: 5.0 2020: 4.5 2021: 4.0 2022: 3.5 2023: 3.0 Total: 20.0 Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:35 PM) Actually, from past history...we should go only with DBacks. Eaton and Quentin were two of the best deals ever. Matt Davidson might turn out to be a find. Just teasing buddy, thought it was funny you were pushing for him & Dyson.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:17 PM) His war was down last year because he was hurt to begin the season and didn’t really have a healthy AB for the first couple months. He was probably the best hitter in baseball the las couple months of 2017 when he was back to normal. I’m not for or against signing him, just don’t see any major decline, or really any notable decline just yet. Here’s his wRC+ by year: 2013: 147 2014: 130 2015: 154 2016: 155 2017: 149 He’s consistently been one of the best hitters in baseball and has shown no decline offensively through his age 31 season. Yes, I’m sure the defense is slowing down a bit, but he’s a good enough athlete to hopefully remain solid at 3B for some time. And if he had to move to 1B or DH, he will likely hit enough to be a valuable player. Again, all depends on the price & years.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 04:06 PM) In what world is Donaldson in a “major decline”? Nothing gets in Caulfield’s way of adding a Royal!

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:19 PM) It’s debatable that Donaldson will be a much more valuable player than Moose from 2020 thru 2024. Even still, he’s also going to be much more expensive than Moose on an AAV basis assuming Moose’s market continues to tank. When you have a cheap core in place, you’re goal should be to maximize production and not value. And it’s hard to optimize production when you’re locking in league average players in your biggest potential area for improvement.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:11 PM) I just feel the amount of money they will spend will not be unlimited. If you get the price you like on Moustakas take it. A good time to buy a winter jacket is the spring or summer. You don't get the newest style, but you may get a great deal on a coat that gets the job done. If a discounted Moustakas means you don't have money for Machado or Donaldson next year, you weren't a player anyway. Some posters are talking out of both sides of their mouths. No money committed, can sign all these guys, but wait, don't sign this guy, then you have settled. No. The Sox would have the fallback in place, and supposedly a lot of funds for other needs including Machado and Donaldson. That said, I don't think it is going to happen. Other than these random reports this winter, I have seen no actual linkage between Moustakas and the White Sox. You would have to figure something would come out. Obviously different times with different dollar amounts, but the White Sox prior to the 1981 season did sign Jim Essian as a free agent to be their catcher. Then Carlton Fisk became available, and they signed him. If the Sox signed a better 3B, Moustakas could move to another team or to DH or play 1B on occassion. A discounted Moustakas doesn’t prevent from adding Machado, it just locks you into a league average player who will need to move to 1B (where the value suddenly disappears) or will force you to move Anderson to CF. Plus you lose an important draft pick. I’ve said numerous times I would have added JD Martinez if I could get him a discount. I just think Moustakas is a less impactful player and we don’t need buy league average players this early into a rebuild.