Chicago White Sox

If you draft Madrigal, where do you slot him eventually? Normally I wouldn’t ask the question, but he should come relatively quick.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:04 PM) Regarding this argument that it is not meaningful to evaluate stats, if any portion is excluded: When you have consistent statistical data, with a short period, which is significantly divergent, I think that it's fair to consider that data as an aberration. It's a long season. If a hitter hit .300 every month, but one, in which he hit .200, what would you conclude? Going forward, would you anticipate that he would hit around .300 .200, or the average of his entire season? I would interpret that data as indicative of a .300 hitter, who had a really bad month. The question then becomes, what caused that aberration? Was he hurt, or was it attributed to something else? To put it another way, I would take that good production in 5 of the 6 months, and hope that the rest of the team could pick up the slack, during that one bad month, if it should recur. The more consistent the production, and the greater the divergence of the one exception, the less significance one could reasonably attach to that aberration. I’ve got great respect for you Lillian so please don’t take this the wrong way, but do you realize how variable & random baseball actually is? Every player is going to have good months & bad months. Occasionally a bad month could indicate an injury or something, but 95% of the time it’s just normal variation. You are really overthinking it here or are simply looking for a reason to justify a move you want to happen.

It's absolutely disgusting that someone would propose arming teachers would actually solve this problem. A couple teachers armed with handguns are going to do jack s*** against some psychopath who has spent months planning, has an AR-15 w/ high capacity clips, possibly wearing body armor, & with the element of surprise. The only thing those teachers might do is slow the shooter down slightly at the cost of their lives, but that's obviously not a solution and doesn't take into the account the numerous other negatives arming teachers would result in. One of the single dumbest ideas I have ever heard.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 05:29 AM) If you look at Moustakas' month, by month stats, over the last 3 years, you might decide that he is a better hitter than Todd Frazier has been, since coming to the A.L. What do you mean “month by month stats”? And I wasn’t arguing that Frazier was a better hitter. My point was that Frazier has the better track record and is coming off a comparable season (if not better) to Moose. The market deemed Todd to be worth 2/$17M. Sure, Moose deserves more money than Todd for several reasons (age being a major factor), but the question is how much more? Throw in losing a draft pick and I just don’t see Moustakas at a 5/$70M deal or so being such a steal. The fact no one has snagged him up yet is telling IMO.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 11:05 PM) Is that Cozart and Moose because I made the same point earlier I'd have rather signed Cozart for 3/38 then commit to Moose on a five year deal. That’s Todd Frazier & Moustakas respectively. I guess my point is that Frazier has arguably been the better player and most people here couldn’t get rid of him fast enough. But somehow many of those people want to lock Moose up to a five year deal with a $12 to $16M AAV despite the fact that a comparable option in Frazier could only get a 2/$17M deal on the market. I just don’t get what people see in Moustakas that makes him so attractive other than HRs.

Random 3B comparison time. Who would be the more desirable free agent? Player: A. B. Age: 32. 29 BB%: 14.4%. 5.7% K%: 21.7%. 15.7% ISO: .215. .249 OBP: .344. .314 OPS: .772. .835 wRC+: 108. 114 UZR/ 150: 9.7. -3.6 WAR: 3.0. 2.2 12-16 aWAR: 3.5. 2.2

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:37 PM) I was looking only at qualifying guys, so Beltran wasn’t listed, but you don,t want to pay that much for 94 games. I have my suspicions about Donaldson.. we will see what happens. It will take the best bid. An article in the Athletic says he owes the industry that. And most likely all the Machado losers will be in on him. One thing to think about is he is known to be a bit of an asshole. There was that playoff game where they caught Gibbons calling him one in the dugout. But if he can put up what you think he can put up, then that shouldn’t be much of a deal. The point I was trying to make is that Beltre averaged 5.6 WAR in his age 33 to 37 seasons. There are examples of elite players remaining productive as they age. The problem is there are so few players the quality of Donaldson that’s it is hard to say with certainty if they generally follow a normal aging curve or a more significant one. Also, are you suggesting he may have used PEDs in his past? Not debating what you’re saying, just have never heard that. I know of the asshole rumors though and am less concerned about those if like you said he remains productive.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:25 PM) ARod’s production dropped off pretty dramatically after his age 32 season. He was still a good player for another 5 years but nowhere near his peak and he was starting from another level above Donaldson. Why would you expect even more from Donaldson? And yes, I am assuming ARod was using PEDs into 2013 but his performance had already dropped off quite dramatically after 2007 when he was 32. Can’t trust anyone using roids. I think aging curves in general are a bit skewed right now because of the drop-off roiders experienced. No doubt guys will get worse as they get older, but I don’t think it happens quite as early as some experts suggest IMO.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. Adrian Beltre put up 3.1 WAR over 94 games last year. Prior to that, he averaged 5.8 WAR over his age 33 to 37 seasons. While not perfect, that’s as close of a comp as you’re going to get for Donaldson. And I’m not sure people realize that Donaldson has been the second best player in baseball from a WAR perspective behind only Mike Trout and it’s not even that close. Dude has been elite and remained elite when on the field last year. I personally believe where his defense is today he’s probably closer to 6 WAR, but that’s awesome and allows him to age and remain really f***ing good. Now, if there are serious long-term injury concerns like fathom alluded to then maybe you got to pass. But without those risk indicators, I’m not going to pass on him simply because he’s in his 30’s.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:28 PM) He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR. QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:37 PM) Not just beating them but beating them by a wide margin considering 2019 is his age 33 season and 2023 is his age 37 season...find it hard to believe he will put up that type of WAR during that timeframe. More likely he accumulates a WAR of 12-15 during that timeframe and now you’re exceeding $10M per WAR. Not great value imo. Let’s see how he does this year first. How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks. Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:37 PM) So would you give him $130-140 million for four years? What if you couldn’t sign him without going to five? I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson: fWAR 2019: 5.0 2020: 4.5 2021: 4.0 2022: 3.5 2023: 3.0 Total: 20.0 Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:35 PM) Actually, from past history...we should go only with DBacks. Eaton and Quentin were two of the best deals ever. Matt Davidson might turn out to be a find. Just teasing buddy, thought it was funny you were pushing for him & Dyson.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 05:17 PM) His war was down last year because he was hurt to begin the season and didn’t really have a healthy AB for the first couple months. He was probably the best hitter in baseball the las couple months of 2017 when he was back to normal. I’m not for or against signing him, just don’t see any major decline, or really any notable decline just yet. Here’s his wRC+ by year: 2013: 147 2014: 130 2015: 154 2016: 155 2017: 149 He’s consistently been one of the best hitters in baseball and has shown no decline offensively through his age 31 season. Yes, I’m sure the defense is slowing down a bit, but he’s a good enough athlete to hopefully remain solid at 3B for some time. And if he had to move to 1B or DH, he will likely hit enough to be a valuable player. Again, all depends on the price & years.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 04:06 PM) In what world is Donaldson in a “major decline”? Nothing gets in Caulfield’s way of adding a Royal!

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:19 PM) It’s debatable that Donaldson will be a much more valuable player than Moose from 2020 thru 2024. Even still, he’s also going to be much more expensive than Moose on an AAV basis assuming Moose’s market continues to tank. When you have a cheap core in place, you’re goal should be to maximize production and not value. And it’s hard to optimize production when you’re locking in league average players in your biggest potential area for improvement.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:11 PM) I just feel the amount of money they will spend will not be unlimited. If you get the price you like on Moustakas take it. A good time to buy a winter jacket is the spring or summer. You don't get the newest style, but you may get a great deal on a coat that gets the job done. If a discounted Moustakas means you don't have money for Machado or Donaldson next year, you weren't a player anyway. Some posters are talking out of both sides of their mouths. No money committed, can sign all these guys, but wait, don't sign this guy, then you have settled. No. The Sox would have the fallback in place, and supposedly a lot of funds for other needs including Machado and Donaldson. That said, I don't think it is going to happen. Other than these random reports this winter, I have seen no actual linkage between Moustakas and the White Sox. You would have to figure something would come out. Obviously different times with different dollar amounts, but the White Sox prior to the 1981 season did sign Jim Essian as a free agent to be their catcher. Then Carlton Fisk became available, and they signed him. If the Sox signed a better 3B, Moustakas could move to another team or to DH or play 1B on occassion. A discounted Moustakas doesn’t prevent from adding Machado, it just locks you into a league average player who will need to move to 1B (where the value suddenly disappears) or will force you to move Anderson to CF. Plus you lose an important draft pick. I’ve said numerous times I would have added JD Martinez if I could get him a discount. I just think Moustakas is a less impactful player and we don’t need buy league average players this early into a rebuild.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:09 PM) I like Donaldson but he turns 33 later this year. That’s a guy without question that will be in serious decline within the 2020 (age 35 season) thru 2024 (age 39 season) contention window. He’s a 5 or 6 WAR player to begin with. Even with a normal decline curve he’d be significantly more valuable player than Moustakas. I get having concerns over signing guys in their 30’s, but Donaldson is one of the best hitters in baseball. Unless my scouts have reason to believe he’ll fall off a cliff, I’m all for signing him assuming the right price.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:01 PM) I agree with this in theory but where it loses me is the fact that I do not see the White Sox committing $150M+ to a single player let alone $300M+. So we’re stuck with the second tier guys anyway. Then what? I fully believe they are prepared to offer Machado a $300M+ contract. Will they ultimately out-bid everyone else? Probably not, but it’s worth a shot. And I’m a huge Donaldson fan and feel like he’s a great (and more realistic) fall-back option.

QUOTE (wrathofhahn @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:58 PM) We really shouldn't be signing any premier FA's right now. It's been one year where we have committed to the rebuild. You don't sign someone like Harper or Machado without making promises they are not going to sign here and watch us tear down the club to get better in 2-3 years. The keyword of your post is when needed. It's unfornate that the timeline doesn't match up but we should have a much better idea in 2020 how close we are and where the real needs are on the roster. Rondon. Goldschmidt. Sale. Are all scheduled to be free agents in 2020. MLB free agency will continue to exist after Machado and Harper deals. Too much of the core will be up in 2019 and burning service time. Free agency can be a two year process, but we have to start going for it in 2019 and that means being active with next year’s class IMO.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:46 PM) Trusting this to being able to outbid the rest of baseball on Machado is a terrible idea. Settling for league average players a year or two early is even worse. There are alternatives in the likely even we miss out on Machado. I’m still struggling to understand why so many people want to go with plan B (or C/D for that matter) before we even attempt plan A.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:45 PM) But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan. That’s fine but we literally have zero financial commitments going forward. We can afford a luxury like Machado right now because our core will be incredibly cheap for the next four to five years. And the good news is won’t prevent us from resigning Abreu and adding other free agents. Now is not the time to be frugle and go after value signings. Our goal should be to acquire the most impactful talent possible and use our prospect depth to fill in the remaining holes as needed. Machado is definitely a long-shot, but adding a 6 WAR player in one fair swoop radically changes the complexion of the team. Adding a guy like Moose probably makes us better, but doesn’t really move the needle that much. Plus he costs us a high draft pick in what should hopefully be our last big draft. I think we need to stick with the process and go after legit stars when the time is right.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:23 PM) I really don't understand the mindset of avoiding a potentially value FA signing to wait around for guys like Machado and Arenado to become available. One, considering ownership, those guys are not realistic targets when they are projected to make $300MM+. Two, give me three guys like Moustakas for one guy like Machado or Arenado. We know there are going to be multiple holes to fill on this roster over the next couple years so why tie yourself down to one guy that restricts the ability to fill other holes? Lastly, like you said, I'd rather they maintain payroll flexibility to afford extending guys like Moncada, Eloy, Abreu, etc. in the future. I got to disagree with the majority of this post. Give me the star in Machado over a couple 2 WAR players. If we can’t develop, sign, or trade for those guys when needed, the rebuild has been an abject failure. Money will not be an issue even with Machado in the fold, at least not for a few years. And as I just mentioned in the post above, if we’re worried about being able to extend guys like Moncada & Jimenez six or seven years from now then we’re going to make a ton of decisions that do not maximize our opportunity to win in the present.

QUOTE (Username @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:13 PM) If Mouse is signing for less than $14 million annually you’re expecting from a market value perspective less than 2 WAR a season (open market is about $7 million per war with no inflation, in normal years). It might make more sense to sign a guy like him now at depressed prices, lock up 3B and give yourself a better long-term shot at re-signing the core guys down the road. Imagine trying to re-sign Eloy, Moncada and Kopech in 5-6 years with Manny declining and making $30 million. These things also don’t happen in a vacuum. If Burger tears it up and Mouse is cheap you have a good problem. Can flip either for other help. And it frees up resources to pursue other positions in FA when you’re not locking $300 million of future payroll in. Plus we are generally bereft of long-term lefty power, and the major 3Bs are righty. I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:36 AM) Just one of those things where it seems like our brains value a hot start higher than a hot finish. I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’ve been high on Nicky for a while. Was interested in him when we first picked him up given his backstory (talented over-slot pick who dealt with personal issues). Was more interested in him when he destroyed AA (in a park where offense goes to die) & made the KOTAH top 100 list. And finally became a believer last year when he cut his K rate to 17% to coincide with a 11% BB rate. No doubt his power numbers with the Sox were a bit flukey, but I think overall offensive package will play in LF. Just have to see how the glove progresses, I believe he has the physical tools to be above average but that may not overcome challenges he may face with his routes/instincts.

QUOTE (FT35 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 08:10 AM) Recently I've seen Micker Adolfo's name surface more frequently in Sox coverage and it's always been VERY positive. It makes me wonder why we don't talk about him more and why he's not on more people's projected lineups in our contending years. For those of you who are up on this sort of thing...is there a bigger reason (other than injury history) why he's not mentioned more in our top prospect conversations? Seems like this guy is healthy and a beast in the making. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0220-story.html https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-getz-describ...-194919118.html I’m a big Adolfo fan, but he’s got to show progress with his pitch recognition & strikeouts to take that next step as a prospect. The good news is his plate discipline improved significantly over the second half of 2017 and when he makes contact it seems to be hard based on his power numbers. There have been a ton of articles discussing this, but our dream future OF should really be Jimenez in LF, Robert in CF, & Adolfo in RF. Micker has a cannon of an arm and is much better suited there than Eloy or someone like Rutherford. I really hope Adolfo takes that next step in 2018. As I mentioned there are reason for optimism.