Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 04:17 PM) Bleh! You sure like complaining about odd things. $1M for a guy like Farquhar to fill a spot in a rebuilding team’s depleted bullpen is normal course of business. We need someone to pitch innings and you’re not going to get anything much better for the price. It may be a boring move, but I don’t see how it warrants complaints.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 03:30 PM) I am a fan of the fact that this basically forces them to not rush collins. Yup, but at the same time the financials don’t prevent us from calling up Collins when he’s ready.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 12:49 PM) I don't get your point. If you don't want to finish dead last, wouldn't you want to keep Abreu? Sorry, I’m agreeing with you. I’m just saying in addition to leadership, he’s also an important piece of our free agent recruiting process.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 12:00 PM) I'm all for veteran leadership, but not at a cost of $20 million per season on a losing team. Is there a chance we compete in 2019? Of course, but I would bet on us being a .500 team or less still. Our young players will go through growing pains as they enter the major leagues and we need to completely rebuild the bullpen. 2019 opening day roster C- Narvaez + ? 1B - possibly Abreu or ? 2B - Moncada SS - Beckham 3B - ? LF - Jimenez CF - ? RF - maybe Avi or ? DH - ? Bench? Rotation Rodon? Kopech Giolito Lopez Hansen? Dunning? Stephens? Adams? Fulmer? Bullpen???? The picture is too cloudy right now for us to determine what 2019 is going to look like. The next wave of prospects like Jimenez, Kopech, Collins, Hansen and Dunning should likely be up at the mlb level by 2019 at some point. Why are you assuming no free agents when deciding if we can be competitive in 2019? And a bullpen can be built in one year. Jones, Burdi, Fulmer, Vieira, Stephens, Bummer, & Fry is a decent starting point. Add a couple impact relievers and you could be pretty much set. This is assuming Jones & Burdi come back healthy (obviously not a guarantee), but if not, we have other guys in the system who might be able to snag a role by then or we can always trade to fill a spot.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 11:49 AM) I do think we can compete in 2019, but that's beside the point- I value his leadership more than most, I suppose. It's not just an on the field issue to me. We've had major clubhouse issues over the years and he has been vital to maintaining it The leadership is important but how are we going to convince impact free agents to sign with us next season if we’re coming a worst in baseball finish? I get money is the most important factor, but if multiple teams are offering roughly the same you don’t want to be the one club coming off a last place season with tons of question marks. The Sox are not going to sit out the best free agent class in years, so this has to be considered as part of their offseason strategy.

QUOTE (ecupittfan @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 12:22 PM) He threw out 49% of attempted basestealers last year, tops in the AL. Combine that with improved framing and a 113 wRC+ and he’s basically the best catcher in baseball (mostly joking). But seriously I’m really feeling this move upon further analysis. Adding a veteran catcher was the one area I really to invest in this offseason.

I trust catcher WAR the least of any positon, but he put up a 2.7 number last year. If the framing actually improved, this could be a nice little signing and help with the transition to Collins (hopefully). And Castillo is only 30 years old, feels like he’s been around forever.

Also, as a point of context, he turned a $7M option for 2018, so I’d expect something like 2/$18M and maybe a bit more.

QUOTE (Sleepy Harold @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 12:14 PM) Matthew Pouliot @matthewpouliot Castillo's pitch-framing numbers got a lot better last year, making him more attractive. Still kind of surprising as an in-between move for a White Sox team still rebuilding. Doubt it's just a one-year deal. Well that’s good to know!

Wow, that’s surprising. I thought he was a bad defender/framer, which if true would make me not like this move. We don’t really need offense from the catcher’s spot next year.

QUOTE (ron883 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 08:15 AM) Gawd you Abreuniks slay me... The Jose lovefest never ends. I like him as much as anybody, but I just don't see the point in NOT trading him when his value is high and when they can resign him if they so desire. But, spending that 20 M a year for 3-4 years youd spend on Abreu would look much nicer in a front loaded Machado contract. Why does it have to be an either or? We should have plenty of money to work with even if we extend Abreu. Also, I think you have a much better chance of convincing a free agent like Machado to sign with the Sox if you keep Abreu around. A promising young team looks a lot more attractive when it's anchored by one of the best hitters in baseball.

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 07:26 AM) I think you still have to include collins to that Group as some Scouts think he won't cut it defensively at catcher. of course neither of them is proven but you have to take some gambles in a rebuild. I mean if you wanted only proven Players you shouldnt have traded sale, q and eaton in the first place. You take some gambles in a rebuild once players have demonstrated they’re ready for an opportunity at the major league level. Burger & Sheets are a good two or three years away from even entering the equation. Collins is probably a year or so out as well and they’re most likely going to give him some rope and see if he can stick at C. If I want a competive roster by 2019/2020 then I need some certainty in the middle of my lineup along with Jimenez. If Gillaspie somehow proves himself and those other guys are forcing your hand, you can always move Abreu at that time. It’s a good problem to have and one much better than being forced to sign a bat in free agency or trade young players for one out of desperation. Again, let me reiterate that I’m assuming Abreu will agree to a 4/$80M extension.

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 05:34 AM) extending abreu doesn't really make sense. basically half of the sox hitting prospects are 1B , DH or fringy 3B that might have to shift to first. even if they never become as good as abreu (which probably is quite likely) still one of them should have more value down the road than abreu in a couple years if you consider decline and salary. of course they all could fail but honestly if you target Corner Players that much and neither of them makes it your rebuild won't work anyway. some dices just Need to fall your way for a successfull rebuild. the sox Need one or two of those Corner guys to become at least 2-3 win (ideally of course 3+) Players so they can spend Money on Areas that might Need an upgrade down the road (SS, C, maybe a pitcher or two or CF). What guys are you referring to? Burger, Sheets, & who? I loved taking a chance on Gillaspie, but he’s closer to bust than a productive major leaguer. I’m not sure who else you’re talking about that would be in this “1B, DH, & fringe 3B” group. And none of those three guys have any impact on my thinking with Abreu, especially when we also have a DH spot to fill long-term. Honestly, the only spot I’d think this way about is corner OF because we’re absolutely loaded there, which is another reason why I’m in favor of moving Avi this offseason.

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 02:23 AM) Throwing some offers out there.... From Red Sox: 3B Michael Chavis (BOS #2, MLB #92), OF Cole Brannen (BOS #9), RHP Bryan Mata (BOS #14) From Rockies: 3B Colton Welker (COL #4), C Tom Murphy (COL #9), LHP Ben Bowden (COL #16) No offense, but those are absolutely terrible.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 04:24 PM) I think there is a fair argument to have him ranked number 1. I go back and forth but I'd probably have Eloy by a hair at the moment. I just don't agree with your guys' floor and ceiling theory. I think relative to their position they have the same floor and ceiling as each other. I guess what I’m getting at and Wite alluded to is the range of outcomes is much greater for Kopech than Eloy. To me, Eloy has a pretty damn high floor, like say a 3 WAR player while Kopech could theoretically end up being just a reliever. However, Eloy’s ceiling is limited to some extent IMO because I think he’ll eventually bulk up and become an average at best fielder in RF. Kopech could become the best pitcher in baseball if his command continues to improve and successfully refines his secondary offerings. Like I said, I truly believe Kopech is the best pitching prospect in baseball, but those top couple positional guys who have demonstrated plus hit & power tools while flashing above average plate discipline are basically impossible for any pitching prospect to best because of the unique combo of floor & upside they provide. I’d just be hard pressed to rationalize taking Kopech over guys like Jimenez, Acuna, Guerrero, etc. if I was building a team from scratch and that’s typically how I think about prospect rankings.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 03:34 PM) I could understand an argument being made for Kopech. His command improved as the season went on and you are talking about 3 plus pitches, including a plus plus fastball, and he's going to start in AAA. He has legitimate ace potential. I would still go with Eloy as my #1, but Kopech is also probably the top pitching prospect in all of baseball too. Kopech has a higher ceiling, but Eloy has the higher floor and is generally a much safer player. I don’t see much of an argument for Kopech right now unless you’re going off upside. And I say this as someone who believes he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball.

I really think if Jose gets moved it’s to the Cardinals or Rockies. Both teams have the chips & the need. Whether they want to give up the necessary prospect currency remains to be seen, but I just don’t see a team like the Red Sox giving up what it will take get him given how weak their system is right now.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 02:24 PM) Putting 20 million yearly on the payroll until 2022 doesn't make a lick of sense. It makes zero sense considering the Sox already control Abreu for two of those five years. It makes negative sense when you consider he's already on the wrong side of 30. I think two things are true right now: 1) Jose Abreu's value is as high as it's ever going to be trade wise right now, this offseason 2) That isn't a reason to trade him in itself There's no rush. The Sox are going to have a helluva lot more info about their contention window next offseason. If Jose is on the club and is coming off something like a 290/350/550 year and the club is primed to contend in 2019 and there's payroll available then sign him then. Marginal wins are more important then. Jose Abreu's value to the Sox will be more relative to what it is now. Would you rather sign Abreu to a 4/5 year deal now or in two years from now? If you feel he can be an important of our next good team (starting in 2019 or 2020), then I’m locking him right now if he’ll take a somewhat team friendly extension. Otherwise, you move him within the next 8 months for the best offer you get. It would be poor asset utilization to hold him until free agency and lose him for nothing. And it would be poor financial planning to lock up Jose for his age 36 & 37 seasons at $20M per when we’ll actually start needing those resources to retain our talent. We really need to make a decision right now.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 01:04 PM) I don't know where you get that. I feel like Abreu and Delmonico are set to have those roles, maybe with Davidson (if he isn't traded) and Cordell DHing every now and then. I think they're just stockpiling on AA/AAA 1B since Delmonico, Gillaspie, etc. will be lost to the MLB team. Delmonico hopefully will be the everyday LF. He has the athleticism to be solid there in time.

QUOTE (Tony @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 01:09 PM) They also claimed Daniel Palka a few days ago. Given the chatter around Abreu the last 48 hours, I’m starting to buy into the fact the Sox are preparing for a 2018 without Abreu at 1B Or they’re simply making sure they have depth in the event they decide to move him. Never hurts to be prepared. Plus we have a DH spot currently wide open which Gillaspie could claim with a strong spring. Doesn’t hurt to have some fall back options in AAA.

QUOTE (fredmanrique @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 11:05 AM) Just a general observation about AAV and excess value, as I notice a lot of people using that to lower their perception of an Abreu return at his salary. Does it not ignore supply and demand and pretend as though any of 30 teams can have any player at what they view as appropriate value WAR for dollar spent? There are only so many consistent top 10 hitting first basemen in baseball. The whole league these days ttys so hard now to accouunt for defense, it overinflates guys like Hayward, and undervalued almost all 1b in my opinion. Part of that is less steroids in the game too. Just a thought when people say groome+chavis (or whatever) is too much for abreu Along these lines, not all WAR is created equal because of the simple fact there is only so many positons. The more WAR you can get out of an individual positon the greater overall value provided to the team. What this implies that each incremental WAR out a given position is worth more than previous one. So when people say the market value of WAR is $10M per, it’s really a flawed assumption. Teams should pay much less for that first unit of WAR than the second and so on. In other words, a 4 WAR player like Abreu is definitely worth more than double of a comparable 2 WAR 1B. Surplus values should take this factor into account and rarely do I see that happen.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 10:41 AM) That would be fantastic for management, but what would the benefit be to Abreu? That represents $20M per year, which is not much more than he will get through arbitration, for the last 2 years of his pre-eligibility for free agency. I would guess that it would take at least $25M per year, starting this next season and covering 5 seasons total. That would not be a bad deal for the Sox. It avoids a huge long term commitment, and only obligates them through his age 35 season. Do you think that management could live with that? Edwin Encarnacion just signed a 3/$60M deal as a free agent. Yes he’s older, but they have been very comparable players. I have no doubt Abreu would get another year or two as a free agent, but if he’s happy here then maybe he’ll give us a bit of a discount on the years. I think the fact he’ll likely need to move to DH down the road will limit his AAV to about $20M per. Anyways, we basically did something similar with Pauline IIRC and he ended up deciding to stay here. Some of these guys do value stability/familiarity and the fact we should (hopefully) be damn good is another incentive. I just don’t see Jose a break the bank type but I could be wrong.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 10:29 AM) If you offered him that and he said no, would that make you ready to trade him for the best available offer? It would for me. I would definitely trade him, whether or not it was during this offseason or at the trade deadline would depend on the offer. Obviously I’d prefer to move him sooner rather than later, but there are a lot of 1B options on the market right now.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 10:08 AM) Take a look at your own words. He was a 5 WAR player in his age 28-29 seasons. So if you saying "I expect him to be 2 wins better in his age 31-32 seasons than he was at age 28-29" isn't optimistic, I don't know what else to call it, and per your words his age 28-29 seasons "don't make sense". I think optimistic is a very fair description of your projection for him. It doesn't have to be wrong, but at age 29 Jose Abreu put up a 1.8 WAR season. You getting to 7 by assuming he repeats 2017 is you being optimistic as just a person saying he'll be at 3.6 or lower based on his 2016 season is being overly pessimistic. Either could be within the range of possibilities from what we have already seen from him. I don’t think you’re understanding this. These projections are supposed to represent his most likely outcome. Of course 5 WAR is possible, but why am I projecting a one-off injury to happen again in my base case forecast? You’re literally picking his worst statistical season which was impacted by injury and somehow using that to argue his 2018 season will be 33% worse than his average production & nearly 50% worse than m his most recent season. There is absolutely no logic whatsoever in overweighting his 2016 season, which is exactly what you’re doing. A median outcome projection should most definitely be higher than 4.5 WAR over the next two seasons. Let me ask you this, if I were to offer you a $1M if you could predict Jose Abreu’s WAR next year within +/- 0.1 points, what value would you pick? Are you seriously suggesting you’d go with something between 2.0 & 2.5?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 08:03 AM) Yeah. How many teams need a 1B exactly? Teams could sign Santana, Hosmer, and even Morrison and Bruce just for money. And that doesn't even count the teams that could potentially convert corner outfielders to 1B and sign another outfielder. I've thought all season that it's more likely Abreu signs an extension for about 4-5 years buying out his last 2 arbitration years than the Sox getting a haul for him. I’d give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.