Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 08:03 AM) Yeah. How many teams need a 1B exactly? Teams could sign Santana, Hosmer, and even Morrison and Bruce just for money. And that doesn't even count the teams that could potentially convert corner outfielders to 1B and sign another outfielder. I've thought all season that it's more likely Abreu signs an extension for about 4-5 years buying out his last 2 arbitration years than the Sox getting a haul for him. I’d give Abreu something like 4/$80M with a 5th year team option and call it a day. He can anchor the middle of the lineup for a big chunk of our window, serve as mentor for Moncada, Robert, & other young LatAm players, improve our sales pitch to free agents next offseason, & further establish our status as the team to sign with for future Cuban amateurs (which becomes important with capped spending). All those factors combined make him worth more to us than other teams IMO.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 07:15 AM) If I wanted to be as pessimistic as you are optimistic, over his age 28 and 29 seasons he put up 5 WAR, so your statement that "nothing below 6 WAR makes sense" for his age 31 and 32 years is undercut by him doing exactly that 2 years ago. The reality is probably somewhere in-between. I think one of the reasons his age 29 season was so bad probably was that he had some leg problems in the first half that he played through. If he stays healthy your 6 is probably pretty close, if that flares back up then the projections could be pretty good. How am I being optimistic? He’s averaged 3.4 WAR/year in his career and is coming off a 4.1 WAR. Assuming 3 WAR/year over his next two seasons is not being optimistic it’s being realistic. That doesn’t mean it’s an automatic. s*** can happen, but when we’re talking about a one-off item, it should not be considered as part of the base forecast. A 4.5 WAR projection over the next two years is most definitely a downside case if you use any sort of logic & reasoning. I do financial modeling for a living and I can tell you the single biggest mistake people make is when they don’t challenge the output of these models and assume they are automatically accurate. Unfortunately models like these are limited/biased by one-time events and small sample sizes. As a result, there is no perfect model that works for every player/situation and as a result there will always be outliers. Anyone looking at Jose’s career and telling me the most likely outcome for him (even with some conservatism) is being a 2.2 WAR per year player is crazy to me. Either you’re taking what Steamer or some other projection system automatically spits out as gospel or you’re assuming he’s going to get injured. No standard aging curve should assume that type of fall-off in his age 31 & 32 seasons.

I gotta disagree with Balta’s logic on team building. Yes, developing your own talent (especially superstar talent) is critical, but there is nothing wrong with filling multiple holes with smart free agent signings if financially possible. The Astros are a perfect example. Yes, they developed their core, but they also went out and signed Beltran, Reddick, Gurriel, & Morton to play important roles. Those four guys earned a combined $50M in 2017. And they were able to add those guys plus some expensive vets via trade (McCann, Verlander) & some pricey relievers in past years (Gregerson & Sipp) because of how little their core guys made. The White Sox should be in a similar position come next season. We could extend Abreu at $20M/per and have a big chunk of our core in place for less than $50M in total commitments. Assuming guys develop as expected, we should be incredibly active in next year’s free agent class. And I’m not just talking about filling in that “one last piece” as Balta routinely calls it. I’m talking adding impact talent where possible (hopefully Machado & an elite reliever) and then buying yourself some time until your next wave of talent is ready by signing veterans to short-term deals at crucial spots. This idea that we can’t compete until all our talent is up and has proven itself is nonsense. The goal should be build a strong foundation, add some vets while you have the financial wiggle room, and gradually introduce more talent over time to help offset escalating costs. Hahn is not going to wait until our less seasoned prospects like Robert, Rutherford, Adolfo, Cease, Burger, & Sheets are ready to start trying to compete. The moment guys like Jimenez, Collins, Kopech, & Hansen are called up our window officially begins. It will likely take a year or two for those guys to fully develop, but Hahn will most definitely try to surround them with as much veteran talent as possible as early as next year, especially since there will be a very deep free agent class to leverage.

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 01:34 AM) I would love those but abreu is projected for about 4.5 WAR in two years of control which is worth roughly 40M on the open market. his projected salary is like 30M for those two years if not a Little more so he doesn't have a ton of Surplus value. there is some upside with abreu but I don't think he has more than like 15M of Surplus value(and that is extremely optimistic). that is roughly the value of one grade 50 (bottom of top100) prospect. now you might find a Team overpay some but not much. also if you want JBJ for abreu you don't get any additional pieces expect maybe a throw in guy. JBJ has a lot more suplus value than abreu, if anything the sox would Need to add. now the red sox Need a slugger so I might see them overpay some but still we are mostly talking a one for one swap here. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-trade-...for-jose-abreu/ maybe if the sox throw in some cash they can get a better prospect. if they don't eat cash getting groome or kelly straight up would be a great deal. Where the hell does a 4.5 WAR projection come from exactly? He’s put up 14.5 WAR over four seasons (3.6 avg). He’s coming off a 4.1 WAR season and has exactly one season below 3.2. To expect him to suddenly drop to a 2.2 WAR in his age 31 & 32 seasons is crazy to me. I would question any projection system that is predicting that type of fall off. To me, I don’t see how anything below 6 WAR makes any sense and I would expect him to be closer to a 7 WAR player. So combine that surplus value with the draft pick he’ll get you when/if he leaves in free agency and he should be plenty valuable.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 08:42 PM) You can't admit this board is EXTREMELY happy with anything the front office does? This is a pro front office message board. Because we didn't execute it right. Sox have had miserable guys in Buddy Bell on the organizational level and Robin Ventura as manager. They've arguably made some of the most bonehead acquisitions ever in trying to bring in guys to win. The ONLY way to win is not trade everybody and rebuild. Some teams with cash have done just fine in adding guys to buy a pennant. I personally think our front office gets a free pass on almost everything on here. I have no idea what you’re actually suggesting here.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 07:46 PM) I wasn't saying we should have gotten all of them, just that they weren't like off the table. I would have taken any of those three over Rutherford. And then I found this breakdown of his swing (from before the draft) I’d definitely take Rutherford over any of those guys. Mateo has some serious question marks and the other two are coming off pretty serious injuries. I do think Blake is overrated relative to his recent rankings, but the tools are clearly there to be a very good major leaguer. Just got to hope the Sox see something they can address which help him drive/life the ball more.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 07:11 PM) I hated the trade at the time, I hated it even more when the A's got all three of Fowler, Mateo, and Kaprielian, but the move is done and now we have to hope Rutherford just had a bad year or needs a small adjustment because we're stuck with him. Sonny Gray was a superior asset though. We should have never expected that type of return for what we gave up. Having said that, I still think we should have got a better second piece than Ian Clarkin, but apparently they are pretty high on him.

Maybe I’m slow, but why would he remove the Sox? I no doubt believe it was intentional, just trying to understand the likely reasoning for it.

Who are the top 5 LatAm prospects in low A & below not named Luis Robert?

The Red Sox would have to include JBJ in any deal for me to even consider them as a trading partner. Honestly, I’d probably need JBJ + Chavis and I would throw in a lesser prospect to offset some of that cost. Don’t think the Red Sox would do that though, which is fine since I don’t really want to trade Jose unless I’m overwhelmed.

QUOTE (GermanSock @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 05:04 AM) why did he Play there at all? He had a Long season with full season minor league ball and the AFL. winter ball is for Players who missed a large chunk of the offseason, he would have been better off resting 2-3 weeks and then starting Lifting and other Fitness Training for the off season. don't want to wear down that Body, especially because he already had some injury Problems in the past. Wasn’t he injured for a chunk of the season? And he didn’t play AFL ball, which is why he played winter ball.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 07:43 AM) I wonder if the Angels would be interested in Sanchez. They have a big hole at 2B. We have four years of control left with him. I’d give him the 3B job to start the year and then reevaluate things at the trade deadline or more likely next offseason. No reason to rush a trade with him when he can still build up his value and when there’s a chance we may need him.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 07:09 AM) This has got to be a joke right? If not, I’ve lost a lot of respect for Lip. No one that actually watched him play last year would consider non-tendering at this price point. Worst case scenario he should be a solid reserve IF, best case he can be a decent bridge 3B. Either way, he’s worth the $2M or he’s projected to make next year.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 04:29 PM) The problem isn't with the Sox making offers, it is with them making the largest offer. As for the Albert Belle example, Eloy Jimenez was 7 days old when it happened. They haven't really shown a propensity to set the market for top level players for 21 years now. They have been #2 a lot of times. #1, not so much. It’s a fair point, but the traditional big spenders are also dealing with a luxury tax right that is far more detrimental than it’s previously been. That’s not to say I expect the Sox to automatically have the biggest offer, but given their complete lack of financial comittments going forward and the need for a big PR move to kick off their return to competiveness I defintiely think it’s a real possibility.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 04:12 PM) You are crazy. I don't always call them draftniks. I also use the word "stat people" and sabes people. I have used draftniks but not often. You can't imply I call people names a lot and get away with that. I contend I am normally polite. I'd say 90 percent of the time. Draftniks or draft people do slay me and frustrate me but I don't always call them draftniks. 450 million would please me. What free agents, though. I stand by my point that we can forget about Manny and Harper. The Sox signed Albert Belle to the largest contract ever at the time. The Sox offered A-Rod a huge deal back in the day, rumored to be like 10/$190M. They recently offered Tanaka a massive deal as well. You’re fooling yourself if you don’t believe the Sox will pursue the truly elite free agents next year when they have like $2M in guaranteed payroll. Whether they can convince one of these guys to take their money remains to be seen, but I have no doubt Reinsdorf will ok an aggressive offseason plan.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 06:00 AM) So, you haven't read any of the posts regarding Sox fans wanting the Sox to pursue big free agents like Machado and Harper? Just about all fans on this board want the Sox to spend, and many are in touch enough to realize that they will. I know my plan had us spending like $450M on free agents next offseason, but maybe my handle doesn’t indicate clearly enough that I’m a Sox fan.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 27, 2017 -> 08:00 AM) Man, I thought I was high on Zavala at 15/16-ish. Felix Mercedes is no longer a middle infielder, he's been playing 1B and OF, so the bar has gotten much higher for his bat. Also he missed the 2nd half last year, and I am not sure why. Yeah, I wanted to ask you about Felix Mercedes. He was doing incredibly well at Great Falls and then all of sudden he was gone and I couldn’t find a single article or note explaining why. He would have been at the bottom of my top 30 if I knew what happened to him and it was simply injury related. Just seems like there is more to the story with him.

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Nov 27, 2017 -> 12:38 AM) Manning did, Brady didn't and Favre didn't either. The point is, you don't know how good a receiver who has a HOF QB throwing to them REALLY is until they no longer have said QB to throw them the ball. Only then do you know if they are really that good and talented. Larry Fitzgerald was one of them, he continued to produce even when he didn't have Kurt Warner throwing the football to him. None of the players that have gone through the Patriots have really done anything anywhere else, other than Randy Moss who was there at the end of his career. You don't know how good Gronkowski really is because Brady is throwing him the ball. Gronk is the only guy that you can really say that may be supremely talented that Brady has as a receiver. First off, I’m not sure why you’re comparing Mitch to two of the greatest QBs. No one other than you has that expectation. But the idea that these guys had no one to throw to is garbage. Antonio Freeman & Donald Driver both had more talent in their little pinkies than this entire Bears WR group. He also had talented receivers like Sterling Sharpe & Javon Walker for periods of time as well. Farve may have made these guys better, but they weren’t some bums like you’re making them out to be. I’d have to look at Brady’s receivers to truly comment on him, but everything about the Patriots is an outlier and they typically found guys who fit their schemes perfectly. So again, if Brady is your expectation here, be prepared for a world of dissapointment with Mitch.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 10:17 PM) I still don't see him stating anywhere that he requires 600 guaranteed at-bats... in fact, all I have seen is him stating the opposite: https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yan...tani-1.14928323 I don’t think anyone has suggested it’s a requirement, but he certainly wants to be a two-way player and not many teams can truly offer him guaranteed DH at-bats. The point is the Sox being a rebuilding club works to their advantage in this area.

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 10:17 PM) Peyton Manning went 21-37 with 302 yds 1 TD and 3 INT in his first start. He had a 42 yd pass. Did he make mistakes? Sure. But he moved the ball, made plays, etc. Aikman I'll give you. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000044...ad-first-starts Looks like quite a few star QBs failed to demonstrate ”greatness” from the start... And Manning had Marshall Faulk & Marvin Harrison, while Mitch has Tarik Cohen & Dontrelle Inman.

Lol...there is literally no way to fairly evaluate Mitch this season due to the s***ty play-calling and the worst WR group in Bears history. We’ll all just have to wait until next year assuming Pace decides WR is actually a position of importance.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 09:35 AM) Jose. I don’t know, I’m just not buying it. That whole long BR article and none were convincing fits other than Boston and St Louis. And either of them could go out and buy Santana, so the choice to trade for Abreu needs to represent value against straight money offered. Since Jose is likely staring at 2 yrs $20 million in arb, the prospects back would equal that amount over $20 mil. I’m not convinced that will see a strong return. I don’t disagree with any of that, but the JD Martinez deal was widely panned as being surprisingly weak and that was for a rental. Jose would most definitely generate a better return given his control & track record. I mean, the Cardinals & Rockies each have multiple prospects that could be sent to us in 1 for 1 deal that would exceed what the Diamondbacks gave up IMO. But I think your point still stands and is even more reason to keep and hopefully extend Abreu.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 09:23 AM) We don’t have to extend him. I think people are overrating the risk in keeping him or trading him. Until I see a trade proposal rumor indicating otherwise, I expect a return near but slightly better than JD Martinez. That type of return isn’t going to change the trajectory of rebuild. Nor will the money saved. His money on the books isn’t preventing anything, so the worst case is that he stays and sucks, but what we lost out on in holding him I’m not convinced will be disappointing. Is this in regards to Abreu or Avi? Because I think we’d do significantly better than a JD Martinez type return for Jose, even if it’s not ultimately enough to justify moving him.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 08:42 AM) Anyone have a link that says this? This is the best I can find. It’s from a Buster Olney article a few weeks ago, but I’ve read similar sediments elsewhere. http://www.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insi...season-question

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 08:57 AM) Yaaaaawn The best part is these delusions are based on nothing. When is the last time the Sox embarked on a rebuild? For better or worse, Reinsdorf has forced the front office to “go for it” pretty much the last 20+ years of his tenure. Nothing in his track record suggests he wants a lengthy rebuild to ensure “profits”, which is still one of the dumbest demonstrations of logic I’ve ever seen on this board. Furthermore, Jerry is a 81 years old billionaire with a minority stake in the team but also a controlling interest. His only objective at this point is to win another World Series before he dies. Generating these hypothetical “profits” doesn’t really help his end game, it would just make some partners richer and they ultimately have no say in the matter.