Chicago White Sox

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ May 31, 2017 -> 06:53 PM) I don't know how to respond to this. I guess I have higher aspirations. I get the dissapointment, but given how big of a mess Giolito has been this season you got to look for little victories. Again, I can't tell if those 7 hits were hit hard, but if they weren't this start at least represents some progress.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 31, 2017 -> 06:55 PM) I'll start by saying you and I often agree on much, and you are one of the more knowledgable posters here. That being said, I think you and others who are pushing this "true market value" narrative are putting WAY too much stock into this notion that trading human beings bilaterally in the offseason or during the non-waiver trade deadline are conditions for a well-functioning, efficient market from which to transact commodities. Cmon. This could hardly be a less-efficient market. There are all kind of constraints, a lack of information, GM's under enormous pressure, Owners vetoing deals that have actually been agreed to, payroll constraints, job tenures that don't align with rebuilding timelines, etc. While that doesn't mean fair deals cannot be made in this environment, this is not some incredibly well-functioning marketplace where one can look at transactions which did take place or did not take place and make rock-solid conclusions about value from them. It just isn't. I'll admit I'm only speculating based on publicly available information (which isn't much). And you're 100% correct there could have been other factors that constrained the market. But the one fact we do have is there was a limited supply of quality starting pitching available in free agency and a limited amount of teams that had a surplus to trade. The market should have been theoretically great. Again, maybe there were other factors that we're unaware of did hurt Quintana's market. We'll never really know. Regardless, if I were Hahn I guess I'd ask myself why I'd expect those constraints to suddenly go away and if a sudden change in supply of quality pitchers would more than offset them. Outside of perhaps banking on some trade deadline desperation, I don't see how Hahn could have realistically expected future markets to be better with any level of certainty.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 31, 2017 -> 07:04 PM) Man this thread got shook. Lol...I wish we could pin J4L's post for all of eternity.

While a stupid move, who gives a flying f*** about this?

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ May 31, 2017 -> 06:00 PM) This guy is a mess. ? I mean I get he only went 4 innings, but he gave up no walks and threw roughly 2/3 of his pitches for strikes. He also didn't give up any homeruns. Unless they were hard hits, I'd actually consider this a promising start all things considered.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 31, 2017 -> 12:36 PM) First of all, I was one of the largest proponents of acknowledging that risk, which is why I kept posting about the price increasing come the deadline as compared to this offseason. Secondly, some of the posters literally began their posts with "I hate that I was right about this." Umm, gloating. Irregardless of just how likely this kind of a dropoff was, I don't think it was anywhere near justifying taking a package that was significantly substandard just because you didn't want to carry the risk. Let me clarify, I personally wasn't trying to gloat and quite frankly it's too early for anyone to gloat. We have wait and see what kind of return he ultimately delivers before we officially say being patient was the right call or not. Right now it's not looking good, but that can easily change over time. I'll end my arguing after this one last point, but ultimately valuation is subjective. Every GM can look at an individual player and come up with a different value. However, in baseball terms, fair value is essentially what your peers would pay for your asset in an unconstrained market. So in this case, if Hahn's asking price was so far off from what all other GMs felt was fair, especially given the favorable market conditions, it screams to me that Rick did not value Quintana appropriately. Sure, it's possible all the other GMs are undervaluing Jose but is that likely? Not in this day & age where GMs are constantly looking for undervalued assets. Again, I know this is all speculation, but it's rooted in common sense. I have no reason to believe that Rick Hahn is the only guy who truly knows Jose Quintana's worth, so I can't automatically give him the benefit of the doubt that offers weren't sufficient. As I've said numerous times, if you can't get fair value in perfect market conditions, maybe you need to reassess what fair value actually is.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 31, 2017 -> 09:42 AM) Some of you guys are really frustrating. You aren't really suggesting a realistic course of action moving forward. Just gloating that impatience should have been rewarded now that Quintana has underperformed. I think Hahn deserves the benefit of the doubt, considering he actually had all the information, while the rest of us were the beneficiaries of leaks and other forms of inaccurate information, and that while by no means optimal, our current position is the position we find ourselves in. Rather than continue to gloat, what is the best path forward? Again, you're assuming that being patient was the right approach, but failing to acknowledge all the risk that came with holding Quintana into the season. This isn't about gloating, it's about questioning Hahn's decision & valuation approach. As for what to do, now we have to hold Quintana until the offseason and possibility into next season. There really isn't much of a choice. Hopefully he rebounds before the end of the season and makes his overall 2017 numbers look reasonable.

QUOTE (bmags @ May 31, 2017 -> 11:37 AM) Yeah, aside from injuries, he wasn't really showing any of his tools prior to this year. That his power is finally developing is a big step. He should spend year in Kanny though. Most definitely. I want to see his walk rate improve before I even consider a promotion to Winston Salem.

Adolfo still has a long way to go, but hitting his 15th double before June is promising.

QUOTE (iamshack @ May 31, 2017 -> 08:30 AM) So what are you arguing for? I'm arguing that many posters here didn't fully acknowledge the risk of holding onto Quintana. The idea of keeping him for "when we are good again" was lunacy from the get-go IMO. Coming into the season, if you believed we couldn't realistically compete over the course of the next three seasons, then Jose Quintana was effectively worth whatever you projected his 2020 WAR to be us. Let's say that's 4 WAR. For another team he could have effectively been worth 15 to 18 WAR over that same period. The opportunity cost of keeping him and not receiving value from another team for his 2017 to 2019 production would have always been tremendous. Whether Hahn received an acceptable offer during the offseason, we'll never know or be able to prove. The problem I have is fair value is typically defined as what the market bares (assuming no market constraints). And given how this was one of the worst markets for starting pitching in recent history, it's hard for me to believe that not a single team was willing to pony up and pay fair value. Therefore, I'm willing to speculate that Hahn may have over-valued Quintana or under-estimated the risk of holding. I said in the game thread last night, but if teams were skeptical of Quintana being a legit TOR starter before, this bad stretch where his elite command has gone to s*** isn't going to help matters.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 31, 2017 -> 07:38 AM) Keeping Quintana doesn't make any sense. They need the prospects that they will ultimately get in return for him. People keep talking about 2019 but the Sox don't have many long-term answers as far as position players go. Where are those guys coming from? They are banking on Moncada, Anderson, Robert, and Collins. What if a couple of them bust though? They need to keep adding. Quintana will need a new contract by the time the Sox are good again so I just don't think keeping him makes any sense and I also don't know how this team is playoff ready in 2019. Great post. The "worst case scenario we'll just keep him for when we're good" argument never made sense with Quintana. And what really sucks is out projected prospect haul at the deadline is greatly reduced. Robertson is the only guy who seems likely to land a top 100 prospect at this point. If Nate Jones can get healthy soon he could as well. The rest of our trade assets, Holland, Gonzalez, Swarzak, Frazier, & Melky, are going to land back-end org top 10 guys and lottery tickets. Obviously you take what you can for those guys, but it's not going to move the needle like a Quintana trade.

http://www.milb.com/scoreboard/index.jsp?c...mp;ymd=20170531

Frazier!

QUOTE (fathom @ May 30, 2017 -> 08:59 PM) Wtf This. So much this.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 30, 2017 -> 08:33 PM) Sure, even Tyler Danish looked okay despite his early game struggles. The problem is that none of those guys (other than possibly Dunning) profile as anything more than back of the rotation guys. Dunning was projected by most scouts to be a 3/4 type of guy, at least. But unless he can really develop/refine his secondary pitches, he's going to struggle. He got away with mostly his fastball in the SALLY League, but then hit a wall with better hitters in Advanced A. Adams has never lived up to that early athletic potential and "frame" projection...in terms of increasing his velocity from 89-92 into the mid 90's. Q now with a 5.60 ERA That has been FIVE innings with 4 or more runs given up this year, and TWO IN A SINGLE GAME. Just think he buckled under the pressure of facing Sale, and you wouldn't have predicted that with how cool he's been for most of his major league career with the Sox. Hansen doesn't profile as a TOR starter?

QUOTE (StrykerSox @ May 30, 2017 -> 08:29 PM) Well, would you sacrifice your farm system and risk your personal livelihood on "he's got a nice fWAR"? Chris Sale might be a nut job with all the mental toughness of a college student, but when he is on, he is on. No one better. Quintana was above average but never that. We expected too much, and now we will get even less. Would I have traded Tucker & Martes for Quintana this past offseason if I was Luhnow? Most definitely. They have a window over the next four years and Q would have fit in perfectly. It's a risk you have to take if you're the Astros when you're talking about landing a durable, consistent TOR starter. The problem is this poor stretch will always be etched in the back of GMs' minds. Look what happens when Quintana's elite command goes to the s***ter. I think his performance will rebound at some point, but his reputation may not. Teams were always skeptical of his TOR status and this won't help matters.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 30, 2017 -> 08:24 PM) Between Q, Rodon, Giolito (until recently), Lopez, Fulmer...it's a mystifying season for almost all of the Sox pitching prospects other than Kopech. And this game's on a 4+ hour pace. Good god, it has been slow. Not 100% true. Dunning, Hansen, Adams, Guerrero, & Cooper have done well. And Lopez was pitching very well before his recent meltdown. But obviously some big dissapointments with the guys you mentioned.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ May 30, 2017 -> 07:58 PM) I love how people just criticize just for the hell of it. No one knows what teams offered. Hahn was selling high. ITS WHAT HE SUPPOSED TO DO!!!! Some just wanna trade to make a trade Selling high? Quintana's value has plummeted. As I said all offseason there was a ton more downside risk than there was potential upside gain. I obviously don't know what was offered this past winter, but given the overall lack of quality starting pitching it's hard to believe someone wouldn't have offered fair value. My concern (which we'll never know for sure) is that Hahn did not value Quintana appropriately and underestimated the considerable risk of holding him. And the worst part is if team's didn't think Quintana was a TOR starter before, he's going to have a hell of a time convincing GMs & scouts he is one now after that disaster of a season.

57 pitches to get through two innings. What a f***ing disaster.

QUOTE (fathom @ May 30, 2017 -> 07:46 PM) Been gone for a while. He has next year to rebuild his value Perhaps, but we're at the point of diminishing returns in terms of control. Next year will be absolutely critical for him and we better hope there is a good market. Still hard to believe they couldn't get fair value for him this offseason.

And that's the sound of his trade value slipping away.

God damn it Quintana...

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ May 30, 2017 -> 07:28 PM) It will be very interesting to see how he pitches if/when he's in the playoffs. Always wondered the same thing.

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ May 30, 2017 -> 07:26 PM) Sale's command is looking a little off. He's amped up, that's what happens.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ May 30, 2017 -> 07:24 PM) Greg's concern of a no hitter goes by the wayside What was his final prediction for K's? 16?