Chicago White Sox

I argued his 2021 isn’t apples to apples to 2022 & 2023, so claims of his K rate trending downward is silly. I also stated very clearly that his value is down from where it was a year ago, so I don’t need to argue why teams should pay a 2022 price when I’m not suggesting that in the first place. Regarding 2023, he was ranked 18th amongst SPs in terms of fWAR despite a bad ERA. Over the past three combined he’s ranked 8th overall. You continue to undervalue him because he wasn’t the dominant 2022 version last year. The reality is most GMs don’t simply look at the prior year and say that’s what a guy is worth. GMs will value him based on their own projections which will include potential mechanical changes that could get his slider back to its 2022 form.

There is no trend line here. His pitch mix was substantially different in 2022 & 2023. You’re trying to anchor off a 2021 peripheral that is no longer apples to apples to help your claim Cease is trending downward when that’s not really the case. Cease’s 2022 was better than 2021 because he perfected an elite slider not because of some BABIP BS unless you are only looking at ERA.

Why do I care about 2021 when he was a lesser pitcher with a different pitch mix and a much less effective slider? The dude is trying to replicate the 2022 version of himself, not the 2021 one.

His K rate went from 11.10 to 10.88. Not sure I’d call that a significant drop and it highlights he was still able to strike out guys at a very high level despite his slider not being as effective. I’d wager money a lot of clubs would love to get their hands on him as White Sox incompetence shouldn’t change their 2024 outlook for Cease.

What peripherals are you referring to? But yes, I still think he should have plenty of value even if it’s down from where it was a year ago.

Take it FWIW, but I was talking with a dude who knew Getz well during his Michigan days. Basically said Getz was super nice but not very smart and more or less felt we were fucked with him as our head baseball decision maker.

Which makes total sense. There is no need to rush a Robert trade. However, it’s better to move Cease now if the value is there. And no one else really has enough value to matter sadly. Also, no one should be surprised by payroll cuts. No way Jerry wasn’t slashing payroll after a decrease in attendance.

Why would the franchise he worth more with their fan favorite announcer?

It’s absolutely incredible how stupid this dude is. He’s so desperate to suck his boss off that he accidentally shits on his entire team that has to manage on a daily basis.

Fully agree. I plan to bump this thread every time I am see that smug face of his or hear him spew some bullshit.

Exactly. I have no problem if people don’t like Jason and are excited for change, but the Sox don’t deserve credit here. Jason is a star in the sports announcing community and grew up a fan of the franchise. There is definitely a group of fans that don’t like his style, but generally speaking he is well liked by the broader fanbase. To lose him after a 100 loss season is simply embarrassing and to an equally pathetic franchise in the same s%*# division no less.

Holy s%*# it’s been a month, but got bump this thread after the Guillen’s clowned his ass.

How so? They clearly didn’t let him go to appease the fanbase.

I understand both sides when it comes Jason, but hopefully we can all agree this is yet another embarrassment for the Sox.

Can you provide a bit more detail? Not sure I’m grasping what you are suggesting about Boyer.

Is there a way to read this for non subscribers?

It’s so true. Pedro is somehow worse than 80 year old dude who can’t stay awake in the dugout. Just mind boggling that he wasn’t canned after last year.

Getz said there are no untouchables. I can’t even fathom what it would take to deal him away and how many teams actually have the prospect currency to get a deal done. But at minimum you listen and see if another team is willing to do something stupid, although there are only so many Preller’s out there willing to pay a significant prospect price to get true impact talent.

So Grady Sizemore’ role is what exactly? Is he the heir to Grifol once he’s almost certainly fired after this season.

https://soxmachine.com/2023/11/a-white-sox-rumor-to-open-mlb-free-agency/ Please contain your excitement

IMO, a trade between the Orioles & Sox is fairly likely. Both sides just line up way too well. Sounds like Angelos doesn’t want to spend a ton of money, which makes it hard to add the impact SP they need. Meanwhile, the Sox really need to capitalize on Cease’s trade value and not risk him somehow getting injured in the first half of the season. And the Orioles’ system has so much positional depth that they can afford to give up two top 100 guys without it having a material impact on their long-term outlook. Mayo is the guy I’d really want as the centerpiece. While he’s only played 3B in his career, I think he could be a fit for an OF corner, especially with his arm. If he’s an untouchable (and he might be, at least for the 2023 version of Cease), then I might be willing to pivot to Kjerstad. Not as intriguing as Mayo, but a LH power hitter who can play RF would fill multiple massive needs. Give me one of them plus Joey Ortiz (who is completely blocked) to fill the other middle infield spot across from Colson and I think you got the basic framework of a deal.

Luckily Marlins fan have a bit more patience than us Sox fans and can wait a year while he “learns” the organization.

Outside of trading Cease, I’m not sure I follow the angst over this. Yes, the fan base will hate the losing next year, but that’s happening regardless of if we move Cease or not. And we should 100% wait until the 2024 off-season before making sizable free agent investments. None of this is going to be fun, but it’s the right thing to do and the consequences of pretending we can somehow win next year could be devastating.

So continuing forward with this, I’m going to first focus on the rotation and the broader plan there. My hope is that Cease is moved this off-season (ideally for positional prospects) and that would essentially leave us with one starter in Kopech. Looking inward first, we do have a lot of pitching prospects that are going to begin their 2024 seasons in the upper minors. Nastrani is probably the closest to the majors, but Mena, Eder, Cannon, Bush, and several others have a shot at being ready at some point. That being said, we should build up enough pitching depth so we don’t have to rush any of these young arms. Let them come up when they prove they are ready for an extended shot. Based on the above, that means we need to add three legit starters that we can pencil into the rotation. Given we are punting the 2024 season, I’m actually ok with a hodge-podge of lesser candidates competing for the #5 spot. Touki wasn’t great last year, but he did put up solid back-end numbers over his last six outings and at a minimum he can be a solid swing-man on the cheap. He’d enter camp as my favorite for the #5 job, although I’d have him compete against whatever lottery ticket arms we end up taking fliers on (and we should pick up several more guys like him, Patiño, García, Honeywell, etc.). Doesn’t sound like Davis Martin will be ready right away, but he’d be the guy I’d plan on giving this role to in the second half if Touki doesn’t appear to be the guy. So with two spots technically filled, it’s time to get to the meat of the rotation. To start, I’d be looking at one year deals for two guys who were unproductive or hurt for the Yankees this past season: Luis Severino & Frankie Montas. The former made 18 starts for the Yankees this year and was absolutely terrible, but may have had some bad HR luck and could be a change of scenery guy. What’s promising is he was very good in 2022 and his pure stuff last year doesn’t appear to be radically different. I’d offer him a 1/$12M deal and try to tack on a team option for 2025 at $20M in exchange for a buyout of $3M. That would give him a $15M guarantee, but I’d ultimately settle for a one & done. As for Montas, he basically didn’t pitch last year (1.1 innings in Sep) after having shoulder surgery early in May and enters the off-season as a massive wild card. He was obviously very good with the A’s but struggled after getting traded to the Yankees in 2022. It’s really tough to project how much he’ll get on the open market, but my guess is he will also be limited to one a year prove it deal. I’d offer a very similar contract to one I proposed to Severino. The main difference would be a slightly lower base salary at $10M but with $2M in incentives based on starts made. I’d offer the same exact team option / buyout structure, but again would be perfectly fine with a one and done deal since a productive Montas has real flip value at the deadline. To fill out the rotation, I’m going to test my strategic priorities and sign 26 year Cuban RHP Yariel Rodriguez to a sizable multi-year deal. He was a dominant reliever in the Nippon League back prior to shifting to a starting role for Cuba in the WBC. Now, my view on him is entirely based on very limited second hand reports, but he sounds like he has a starter’s repertoire along with the stuff to be a back-end reliever as a fall-back. Not sure what that costs you nowadays, but I’m willing to gamble on a say 5/$40M contract. Again, that may be a bit too high or low, but as long as my scouts feel he has the upside of a #3 type starter with the floor of a quality setup man, I’m willing to take a gamble in a range around that amount. In summary, these moves would result in the following rotation: Luis Severino ($12M) Frankie Montas ($12M) Yariel Rodriguez ($8M) Michael Kopech ($4M) Touki Toussaint ($1.5M) To me, that’s a great use of rotation innings in a lost season and all at a very reasonable cost. And as hinted at above, Nastrini (and possibly others) would be a real threat to take one of these roles as soon as his performance and/or injuries/trades permit. Even if the veterans don’t perform well, they buy us some time with the young arms. If they do perform, they provide legit trade value at the deadline or possibly some 2025 stability if the team options were to come to fruition. Regardless, I like how these moves fit the broader strategic roadmap I outlined in my previous post and I’d give Getz huge kudos for pulling something like this off vs. grabbing a bunch of safe innings-eaters.

Honestly, there is no path to compete next year. And as such, I’m going to outline my “do the right thing” plan which is entirely focused on being good again by 2027. High-level, this means punting the 2024 season (despite the lack of draft pick upside) and then using 2025 as a transition year for development. At a conceptual level, I will avoid calling up my big three positional prospects (Montgomery, Ramos, & Quero) until 2025. It just doesn’t make sense to burn any service time this year and I’d rather have them all hit in a more condensed window. The SP & RP pitching prospects in the upper minors are a completely different story though. Pitching is simply too volatile and injuries can happen at any time, so whenever those guys are ready for a shot they should get one. So beyond that one guiding principle, here are the rest of my strategic priorities for the off-season: Trade Dylan Cease if a quality offer is there, otherwise hold to deadline Only sign free agents to one year deals unless they are young and/or are greatly underrated by the market (team options are obviously ok) With rental free agents, prioritize ceiling over floor and hope those who actually work out can be flipped at the deadline for something of value Explore trades for Moncada & Eloy, but only deal them if it makes sense Leverage our open 40 man roster and acquire players with upside who may fall victim of being in stronger orgs with no space (Rule 5 as well) Once they are ready, prioritize playing time for our B / C tier prospects over any low ceiling vets (such as Sosa, Rodriguez, Colas, Lee, etc.) I still need to work through the specific names, but ultimately it’s all going to look very ugly for the 2024 season. The most important thing is to admit defeat and acknowledge there is no hope for next year. Only by doing that, can you identify the moves needed to right the ship by 2026.